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creditanalyst

creditanalyst
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  • The Truth About Yongye International (Part 1) [View article]
    Customers include Mr. and Mrs. Lee and Mr. and Mrs. Chan, both middle aged farm working families from their small rural village. They purchased Shengmingsu from their local Yongye branded store. Go and visit them and ask them whether or not it's changed their lives.

    If you want to go further, go and talk to the individual branded stores to see how well Shengmingsu is selling compared to the competitng products.

    If you want to go further, ask the store owner who the distributor is and check the 10-K to see if they have been increasing or reducing their direct Shengmingsu purchases.

    As a small-time investor on this side of the world, I haven't felt the need to go looking so deeply into this, it's just not cost effective to do so. I based my meager investment on the sources of credibility which Kurt has so kindly listed out for you and for me that's enough. But if you have such a big '?' around two customers, go travel to China and find out for me. I'd really appreciate if you were to share your findings.
    Feb 22, 2011. 04:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing Strategies for the Next 'Lost Decade' [View article]
    if you had a lost decade its time to reconsider your approach to investing. by a lost decade, we are saying the average return of the entire universe of stocks was a wash. but that also means for every company that went bust like lehman, a company boomed.

    i agree that DRIP is a good and safe strategy, advisable if one can not afford to take excessive risk with their capital (perhaps as one comes closer to retirement). i think the key here is global growth opportunity for the companies, as WMT and MCD (likewise other globally exposed brands like YUM, GE, etc) have opportunity to continue moving forward and maintaining/growing their dividend in the future. if the U.S. economy were to stagnate like Japan, you don't want to be holding onto those companies going nowhere with only U.S. exposure. companies with operations in emerging countries like China, Brazil, and India will mitigate exposure to a single sovereign economy.

    finding the companies poised to succeed and not destined to be part of the next "lost decade" is a point the author should stress more. i've all but given up on mutual funds and owning a basket of stocks and paying someone to do something that i could do better on my own with a little intiution and homework. as warren buffett says, "diversification is a protection against ignorance". you would continue to be ignorant by continuing with the same strategy (getting robbed by wall street) and positioning yourself for another lost decade.
    Jul 2, 2010. 01:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Yongye International (Part 1) [View article]
    Why do you want ME to do YOUR homework for you? You are the one struggling to find some peace of mind here and wanting specific answers. If you are going to have a heartattack over not having the specific customers listed out for you in the 10-K why not just call YONG's IR and ask? Go implore to the management to include this detail in their reports so that you can be satisfied.

    Instead of whining on the yahoo board for answers, and on this post for answers, why not turn it into something productive and instead focus on figuring out the answer for yourself. Go talk to management and or solve your riddle, and report back to me.
    Feb 22, 2011. 07:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Yongye International (Part 1) [View article]
    Are you a robot that reads a SEC filing word for word literally? The information is supposed to provide you with enough background on the company so you can further ask your own questions if you have them. It's not an end all document.

    I never said yong sells to customers directly. I simply pointed out to you who the ultimate customers were, so if you want to follow the food chain of who pays who, and if you really cared to go all the way back to the starting point, that is your answer.

    Furthermore, what don't you understand about my position? I don't care to know the name of the distributor, so why would i feel the need to do your own required homework for you? YOU are the one that wants to know two names, so why don't you find out and report back instead of saying all this nonsense asking us to give you two names just to be difficult? If you have tried to go about it using a bottoms up approach as I have clearly pointed out to you and have found the answer is "they don't exist", why don't you just go ahead and make your statement already?
    Feb 22, 2011. 06:26 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Yongye International (Part 1) [View article]
    The ultimate customer is small farmer A and small farmer B, who purchased from independently owned store A and store B, who was supplied and branded by provincial distributor A and provincial distributor B, who purchases from YONG.

    If you want to do more digging on YONG's credit quality you'll have to do some research. Since you have such a nagging desire to know two customers, why not just go call a few stores and ask them who their provincial level distributor is? I'm sure someone will tell you where they are getting their product from, and maybe they'll even be happy enough to tell you how it sells compared to competing products.

    If no one else can provide you with your answer, why not find out yourself so you can contribute something positive?
    Feb 22, 2011. 05:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truth About Yongye International (Part 1) [View article]
    furthermore, here's a place to start. on the yongye website there is a picture of a branded store with the phone number clearly listed on the banner. www.yongyeintl.com/Bra...

    call it. talk to them. ask them who their distributor is. ask them for other stores. ask them how shengmingsu has been selling. claim that you are in a different province and wish to buy it. do your own due diligence instead of asking other people to do your work for you. what are you, 10 years old?
    Feb 22, 2011. 08:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Profit From the Coming Collapse of China [View article]
    Note to self, author is "Israel's Financial Expert", not "China's Financial Expert".

    I do commend your bold call of China collapsing in 1 year. It's always useful to hear the counter argument to any idea. Best of luck to you.
    Jun 22, 2010. 02:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What to Buy in China [View article]
    i don't refute your comments, but i'd like to expand your reply.

    YONG is expected to do 160-165MM in sales in 2010 and have reiterated numerous times. this would be more along the lines of 2x annualized sales looking forward. do you base your investment decisions purely on trailing 12 months or do you look at the forward 12 months? sure, its a projection and subject to uncertainty, but they've been hitting on all gears and have met prior promises. furthermore they have continued to reiterate the guidance.

    i feel that the lack of positive operating cash flow is forgivable given their desire to spend more on inventory which gets liquidated by year end (for profit). this is a growth company after all and they are surely growing.
    May 18, 2010. 03:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Time Will Be Different: China Bubble Watch [View article]
    two choices:
    1. if you build it, will they come? maybe not today, but perhaps over time.
    2. if you don't build it. no one can come.
    *edit* 3. delay building until the demand is there. prob the most ideal choice but which of us can pick the most appropriate times?

    i pick number #1 assuming a few things:
    1. i have the freedom/capacity to do so
    2. i am expecting a brighter future

    right now, i think the world is being too gloomy with the stories of doom and systemic risk and the like. the one thing that is certain over the course of humanity is that most humans persevere through trials and tribulations and seek to continue to improve. it's human nature, isn't it? else we go back to living like barbarians in caves. this is the most fundamental trait that i think will stand the test of time. ignoring all the problems in the global economy right now, we can rest assured thanks to this desire for forward progress.

    we will find a way. there always a way unless we are ball and chained. forget about today's troubles and 20-30 years from now i assure you we won't be living in caves. WWIII might have taken place though. and i'll be in my 50s.
    Jul 1, 2010. 08:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Believe This Panic Is Over [View article]
    weigsong, i know by now you already have your list of negative china points to just copy and paste to every article of china.

    can you make yourself any more transparent than you are though?
    1. you clearly are short china everything because you spend your time and effort bashing every positive point of view on China, promoting that doom and gloom is ahead.

    2. i know #1 is true because its human nature to spend time and effort on value driving activities, so i know you are clearly invested in your ideas, else you would be spending your time looking for other avenues to generate cash

    3. you know nothing about how to write to hold readers' attention. readers get tired by 10 points. you had 50 there. i personally stopped reading at your 5th point.

    good luck to everyone with their investments.
    Jun 4, 2010. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Agritech: A Long-Term Winner [View article]
    I like YONG better than CAGC. Check out their yahoo finance boards for more active commentary and expert discussion.
    Aug 23, 2010. 03:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • YONG Discussion Message Unwarrantedly Censored By Yahoo Finance [View instapost]
    keep up the good work. -rhlee
    Aug 7, 2010. 02:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing Is Simple: Ignore Analysts [View article]
    Your argument would be much stronger if you gave some examples of what the "big picture" you notice analysts are missing. Pick a stock you see this happening with and give details of what an individual investor like myself should be focusing on.
    May 20, 2010. 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What to Buy in China [View article]
    I agree that there is a big risk of "manipulation" and powdering of the numbers in China. But if it makes you feel a little better about this YONG, it is one out of a handful of chinese companies actually audited by a big 4 accounting firm's operations in China. KMPG Huazhen. It was one of the reasons I invested in it.
    May 18, 2010. 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What to Buy in China [View article]
    YONG. thoughts?
    May 18, 2010. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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