Seeking Alpha

pro4exas

pro4exas
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View pro4exas' Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • AMD's Cheat Sheet For July 18th [View article]
    Justin, You missed the most important info that will be released on July 18th.

    AMD will provide guidance for Q3, and this is what you should be focusing upon..... NOT what is now history.

    But, since you provided a good review of AMD's expectations for the year... let me help you with Q3 numbers.

    1) AMD states they will decrease operating costs further in Q3 by appx. $30 million.
    2) Positive free cash flow by the Q2.
    3) AMD has a seasonal increase in revs in Q3 over Q2 of appx. 7%
    4) AMD said in the prior CC that they expected to be a breakeven run rate by the end of Q2.

    THEREFORE: Use Q2 as the base for Q3 model

    5) $1.1 Billion X .07= $1.177 B revs before console wins

    6) Use $70 per console APU shipped in Q3.

    7) For consoles to be on shelves in late November 75% of the APUs must ship before the end of Q3.

    8) WORST case is the 4 million APUs ship in Q3

    9) 4 million X $70= $ .28 Billion

    10) ADD $.28 Billion to Q3 estimate $1.177 B = $1.457 BILLION revs for Q3.

    11) Since AMD enters Q3 at breakeven run rate, any incremental GROSS profit should mostly drop directly to the bottom line.

    12) Assume a 40% gross margin on the incremental revenue increase over Q2.

    13) $1.457- $1.1= $357 million rev. increase.

    14) 40% X $357 million= $142 million of GROSS profit in Q3.

    15) Subtracting AMDs' estimated taxes of $4 million = $ 139 million
    16) Since there should NOT be any incremental increase in costs, All of the $139 million falls to the bottom line= $139 million NET profit.

    17) Using appx. 600 million shares $139M/600M= 23 cents per share in profits.

    18) CONCLUSION: Q3 Revs should be at least $1.457 Billion with 23 cents EPS.


    Jul 16, 2013. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Beats AMD At Its Own Game... Does It Matter? [View article]
    Consumers do NOT care what chip is inside their smart phone or Tablet... and that sentiment will be quickly carrying over to PCs, Laptops, and Hybrids.

    Intel inside will be dying a slow death...

    AMD is the beneficiary.

    AMD is creating APUs that meet the price point for maximum demand.

    Meanwhile Intel is creating chips that NOBODY really wants or needs.
    Jun 2, 2013. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • H-P (HPQ) Moonshot servers featuring AMD's low-power Kyoto CPU will arrive in 2H13. H-P praises AMD's GPU expertise, which it thinks makes Kyoto well-suited for video/graphics-centric tasks. Also arriving in 2H are servers using Intel's (INTC) next-gen Avoton Atom CPUs - the first Moonshot systems use Centerton Atom CPUs. Meanwhile, ARM-based CPUs will be provided by Texas Instruments (TXN - PR), AppliedMicro (AMCC - PR), and Calxeda - H-P talks up the inclusion of a DSP in TI's Keystone ARM processor. [View news story]
    Video over the internet is the HUGE growth area for cloud providers.

    More servers will go into the cloud over the next decade, and significantly less will be sold to corporations.

    AMD is positioned for huge growth.

    Intel is positioned to lose market share to AMD and other companies using ARM architecture to produce server chips.
    Apr 13, 2013. 08:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
3 Comments
2 Likes