Totally a biased short side opinion...

Blackstone's Debut Leaves Some Disappointed

Dear Mr. Cohan:

[INAPPROPRIATE LANGUAGE REMOVED BY THE SEEKING ALPHA EDITORS]
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BX is hurrying its IPO not knowing what could happen to the market next week... Another bubble which will really hurt the market...

Jim Jubak: Blackstone IPO Is a Must-Miss
www.thestreet.com/pf/n...

Why FIG was a bad IPO (must read):
www.thestreet.com/_yah...

Both FIG and BX knows that they are at the top of the private equity cycle. Cannot get any better and will only get worst as debt (required to take companies private) is not cheap anymore and becoming more expensive to leverage as interest rates are rising.

Also most of you should know that BX is not selling their attractive funds/equity portions of the business. They are selling a small portion of the company which manages these funds/equity. And this company will have a market cap of $40 billion. Imagine if BX was bringing to public their core business, what would its market cap be...?

But do keep companies like these in your super-short lists: BX, FIG, INFN, CAVM, ATV, LLNW, NMX, ENOC, ARUN. Will def. come in handy when the bubble bursts again.
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And this is response to someone on ipohome.com [INAPPROPRIATE LANGUAGE REMOVED BY THE SEEKING ALPHA EDITORS]
who predicts BX hitting 121 a share:

> This one I feel atleast has the potential to double. Im on a limb
> once again... this one will see 121 a share.....within 4 months
> sponge

At $121, it will be close to $140billion market cap, almost twice as big as Goldman Sachs. And that too, only the management arm of Blackstone. So what would you value the entire Blackstone group. You are a plain idiot who may have got lucky with MA and now enticing others to buy at current levels to help your cause.

If you say double from here, even at $75, it will be nearly as big as GS which had $69 Billion in 2006 revenues and nearly 10billion in profits - GS profit alone is more than BX revenues. And BX revenues are only going to get worst with interest rates rising and the new BlackStone Tax law which the two senators are fighting about with the SEC.

And finally MA trading at $166 with a astronomical PE of 160+ looks cheap in front of BX even though it is small revenue wise. But it has a stable consumer oriented business and one of the only 3 leading credit card companies. BTW, I am short on MA.

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Blackstone Buddies Up With The Commies

Great post Eddy !

"Especially if you're planning any more hostile takeovers. Taiwan, for example."

LoL !!!

Veraz Networks: Another Tech IPO Coming Public Too Soon

"I don't have the power to 'walk' or 'talk' down ipos to gain better entry, that is not what I do."

Actually, investors do read columns which appear right below the ticker's quote. I have read quotes from your blog about VRAZ bad Q1 on Yahoo Finance boards posted by other people as a -ve. I am not sure how much it has hurted the stock, but it has.

Yes, @ $11-13 IPO price, VRAZ was expensive and I give you that. But you were VERY wrong mis-leading investors about VRAZ possibly having a bad Q1. It had misled me into selling VRAZ before earnings. But then they handily beat expectations and delivered solid revenue growth YoY. And I bought in again after that for a discount.

You still do not accept that you made a seriously wrong speculative statement, you were talking as if you already knew the numbers:

"Why? Apparently its IP product revenues did not grow in the first quarter of 2007.So we've got an operation losing significant monies whose growth driver looks as if it may have stalled..."

It grew 98% YoY and 17% sequentially.

And about calling names, I apologize, but please educate your readers that when you write IPO columns, you are merely speculating them for a quick gain - flipping and that you are not in for the long term like many of the investors like me are. So naturally your writeups does have a lot of narrow and negative tone for IPOs which you do not expect to pop at open. In short let your readers know your trading objective and/or investment profile.

Xinhua Finance Media: Selloff Overrated, Expecting a Bounce

Hey, I was right on about that guy when the company IPOed... Here is what I wrote about him and XFML on Mar 12th...

china.seekingalpha.com...

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"This company is full of crap, a holding company of the parent Xinhua which is again a holding company of some other print company. The CFO of the company is a founder and CEO of his own company SBI something and is also a licensed broker in the US. What is he doing at XFML ? Plus he looks very shrewed, cunning and fishy. As if he is in only for the money. Possibly hired for his English speaking skills just to get the IPO done.

This company looks a lot like NINE where there were so many inter-relations of the CEO with other companies he founded. That fked up stock (NINE) priced at $12 opened at $13 in 2004 and is now trading at $4 something.

And finally remember this equation: Chinese IPO => JP Morgan/Credit Suisse = CRAP, POS, RUN !!!"

Why Did Xinhua Finance Media's Singhal Suddenly Resign?

Hey, I was right on about that guy when the company IPOed... Here is what I wrote about him and XFML on Mar 12th...

china.seekingalpha.com...

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"This company is full of crap, a holding company of the parent Xinhua which is again a holding company of some other print company. The CFO of the company is a founder and CEO of his own company SBI something and is also a licensed broker in the US. What is he doing at XFML ? Plus he looks very shrewed, cunning and fishy. As if he is in only for the money. Possibly hired for his English speaking skills just to get the IPO done.

This company looks a lot like NINE where there were so many inter-relations of the CEO with other companies he founded. That fked up stock (NINE) priced at $12 opened at $13 in 2004 and is now trading at $4 something.

And finally remember this equation: Chinese IPO => JP Morgan/Credit Suisse = CRAP, POS, RUN !!!"

Ethical Issues Cast Shadows on Xinhua Finance - Barron's

Hey, I was right on about that guy when the company IPOed... Here is what I wrote about him and XFML on Mar 12th...

china.seekingalpha.com...

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"This company is full of crap, a holding company of the parent Xinhua which is again a holding company of some other print company. The CFO of the company is a founder and CEO of his own company SBI something and is also a licensed broker in the US. What is he doing at XFML ? Plus he looks very shrewed, cunning and fishy. As if he is in only for the money. Possibly hired for his English speaking skills just to get the IPO done.

This company looks a lot like NINE where there were so many inter-relations of the CEO with other companies he founded. That fked up stock (NINE) priced at $12 opened at $13 in 2004 and is now trading at $4 something.

And finally remember this equation: Chinese IPO => JP Morgan/Credit Suisse = CRAP, POS, RUN !!!"

Veraz Networks: Another Tech IPO Coming Public Too Soon

"It appears VRAZ did not have a stellar first quarter of 2007. In fact it expects overall revenues to decline sequentially in the first quarter of 2007. Why? Apparently its IP product revenues did not grow in the first quarter of 2007. So we've got an operation losing significant monies whose growth driver looks as if it may have stalled..."

Right day trader! You really had the nerve to make such a speculative and misleading statement. Check out the earnings, their core IP revenues increased 98% annually and 18% sequentially. Revenues increased 27% compared to the prev year. Both earnings and revenues blew past estimates.

If you want to maintain the slightest bit of creditability, accept that you were seriously wrong and applaud the results!

Veraz Networks: Another Tech IPO Coming Public Too Soon

BTW, if you are upset that you missed out on buying at the lows and hence want to talk it down for you and your subscribers (I believe 100 or so), I can totally understand your mentality. VRAZ closed up another .47 cents (8%) today. Ouuch! So I guess nobody cared of your above opinion today, Double Ouuch !!!

Veraz Networks: Another Tech IPO Coming Public Too Soon

I am not convinced that you are giving VRAZ no chance even at the current price levels even though it is growing its core softswitch business 100% Year over Year. Veraz has specifically mentioned in their S1 that Mar 07 quarter (being the 1st quarter) is a seasonally slow Q and revenues can be down sequentially from the earlier quarter. But is it not standard filing practise and built into the price & estimates?

And if we start reading into such fine prints and take such a short term and narrow view, I am pretty sure you would want to run away from all IPOs, nobody would ever want to invest in IPOs.

Why would you not comment on their main competetion and their valuation? Here, I will do it for you:

VRAZ: Market cap $250 mil - 2006 revenues - $100mil, trades at 2.5x times revenues and 2x expected 2007 revenues of $120-$130million. $81 mil in cash, no debt. Enterprise value $170 million.

SONS: Market cap $2 BILLION - currently delinquent in filings with SEC - 2006 revenues not known- estimated @ $220 million - trades at 10x times 2006 revenues. $200 mil cash. EV $1.8 billion.

So can you justify why SONS with just over double the revenues is trading @ 10 times valuation that of VRAZ. I believe it has do with 2 reasons:

1. Profitability which VRAZ will be soon.
2. VOIP/Softswitch market is currently at $2 billion growing @ 36% CAGR and expected to reach $10 billion by 2010. And with 400 US & international DCME customers, I am pretty sure that VRAZ will get a big pie of that as these customers continue to overhaul/upgrade their legacy networks.

Also I believe with your negative & narrow term view, VRAZ selling to international Tier I/II customers is a bad thing. And I would say HELL NO! Given the recent Dollar weakness againsts all major US currency, VRAZ stands to in fact gain a heck lot from it given that it derived 80% of its 2006 revenues from International market.

Biotech IPO Watch: Simcere Supplies High-End Generics In China

"seeking a Price/Revenue multiple of just 7 "

This guy must be really dumb ! does not mention recent Chinese pharma IPOs (TCM and SSRX) trading below IPO prices and that the profits for SCR for both 2005 and 2006 were because of Tax holiday and it expires this year and will be paying a minimum 15% tax. Plus the generic drug Bicun I believe which contributed 25% to 2006 revenues, its exclusive 5 year rights is expiring at the end of this year and will be open for competition in 2008 from other generic drug makers.

A Close Look At The HFF Holdings IPO

Bill, you are quick to compare HFF with CBG (CB Richard Ellis and 500% return) though the comparison ends at that they are in commercial real estate biz.

But why would you not compare EVR (Evercore Partners - a recent IPO) and similar revenue numbers and profits. EVR is trading @ $31 but has a maket cap of only $157 million and a PE of only 2.6 (HFF is 3 times more expensive at over 500 million market cap and a PE of 16).

HFF & EVR 2006 revenues and profits around the same @ 220 million and around $40 million profit.

No wonder since your article/IPO, HFF has dropped from $21 to $15 a share. There is something in this Partnership deals that the street knows and you are not aware or not sharing. I hope you have sold your stake you are holding @ 18 a piece.

I am not saying HFF is a bad business but somethig does not make sense when we compare it with EVR.

Tech IPOs Opening Much Too Aggressively

And if BBND was so HOT, why was it not acquired all these years by giants likes CSCO or Nortel for whom $500-$700 million is pocket change.

Tech IPOs Opening Much Too Aggressively

And to the list today's IPO BBND - at current $17.xx price, the market cap is now 1 billion+ and PE is astrnomically high @ 150+ . Talk about the year 2000 bubble.

And I totally agree with Brian's comments above. People investing in this IPOs are just insanely crazy. They do not look at this numbers and are in a state of denial. Nor they look at the competition. For ex. our high-flier of the day BBND - its closest two competitors OpenTV (OPTV) and Terayon Communication Systems Inc. (Pink Sheets: TERN.PK) are both trading at $2.xx. They both provided equipments to Comcast and are being tested by Comcast for their new IPTV/VOD rollout. Why are they trading at this price if it is such a HOT market like BBND makes you believe.

Seriously guys, take a look at both OPTV and TERN, their financials and their website, their technology and products, they all look as good.

So please do not bet and dream that BBND will be your retirement nest egg.

Xinhua Finance Media: Why I Took a Chance on this Chinese IPO

This company is full of crap, a holding company of the parent Xinhua which is again a holding company of some other print company. The CFO of the company is a founder and CEO of his own company SBI something and is also a licensed broker in the US. What is he doing at XFML ? Plus he looks very shrewed, cunning and fishy. As if he is in only for the money. Possibly hired for his English speaking skills just to get the IPO done.

This company looks a lot like NINE where there were so many inter-relations of the CEO with other companies he founded. That fked up stock (NINE) priced at $12 opened at $13 in 2004 and is now trading at $4 something.

And finally remember this equation: Chinese IPO => JP Morgan/Credit Suisse = CRAP, POS, RUN !!!

Xinhua Finance Media's Less Than Impressive IPO

Totally agree with cs_2222, this company is full of crap, a holding company of the parent Xinhua which is again a holding company of some other print company. The CFO of the company is a founder and CEO of his own company SBI something and is also a licensed broker in the US. What is he doing at XFML ? Plus he looks very shrewed and fishy. As if he is in only for the money. Possibly hired for his English speaking skills just to get the IPO done.

This company looks a lot like NINE where there was so many inter-relations of the CEO with other companies he founded. That fked up stock priced at $12 opened at $13 in 2004 and is now trading at $4 something.

And finally remember this equation: Chinese IPO => JP Morgan/Credit Suisse = CRAP, POS, RUN !!!