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  • Why I'm Buying Gold Stocks Right Now [View article]
    Gold and silver are up strongly today. So are GDX and SIL. Here's an idea. Short GDX at under $22, then wait for $40+ to cover.
    Oct 6 02:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Gold Stocks Right Now [View article]
    "The commodity super cycle is over, this is normal, stop holding onto some fantasy that gold will ever truly rally again in your lifetime."

    Gold has a 5,000 year history of retaining its purchasing power. How many fiat currencies have retained their purchasing power? The answer is zero. Some have failed catastrophically. Take a look at a photo of a Zimbabwe $100 trillion bill.

    Imo GDX, the gold miners ETF, and SIL, the silver miners ETF, are poised for huge gains going forward, much greater than the metals themselves. Shorts are future buyers. The smart shorts are covering now and going long.
    Oct 6 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nestle: Swiss Food Giant With Compelling Dividend [View article]
    "Some of us don´t hold a stock like Nestle for Growth specifically. We hold it for dividends and dividend growth."

    Where do you think the money for the dividends comes from? It comes from the cash balance of the company. Without sufficient earnings growth, significant dividend growth won't be sustainable.

    " I do care about growing cash without selling any of my shares."

    Why the aversion to selling shares? If for example, one invests in GILD shares, and sells 1% of the shares each quarter, they will have created their own dividend. What each share represents in terms of assets and earnings power is changing over time, so there is no benefit in keeping the number of shares constant. When selling shares instead of getting a dividend, only the gain on those shares is taxed, not the full amount you receive.

    "and also to reinvest in my cash cows"
    That basically undos the dividend, except that you will have to pay taxes on the dividend if it is in a regular account. The only difference is that with dividend reinvestment you own a larger percentage of a smaller company(smaller since it paid out assets as dividends), while if the company didn't pay a dividend you would own a smaller percentage of a larger company(larger since it didn't pay out assets as dividends).

    Dividends don't magically create wealth. They just transfer money from the company to the shareholders, but since the shareholders already owned the company, it was always their money, and doesn't increase their wealth.
    Think of a dividend as like withdrawing money from a savings account, or like selling shares of stock. In either case it reduces the value of what is left by the amount withdrawn.
    Oct 6 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold - Resting On Support At $1290 [View article]
    There seems to be good support for gold at around 950 Euros or $1180.
    Let's see how GDX, the gold miners ETF responds. If GDX rallies while gold stabilizes, that would be a very bullish sign for gold.

    Since the start of September, the gold/GDX ratio has risen quite a bit. let's see if it will soon fall quite a bit, and the gold mining stocks greatly outperform gold.
    Oct 6 10:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom In Gold Likely To Be Below $770 [View article]
    It broke $1200, but didn't break 950 Euros. What was the 12 month low? Was it around $1180? Gold hasn't broken below $1180. It seems like there is probably good support for gold here, and we have probably already seen the bottom.

    The weakened Euro has worked against gold, however the Euro will probably gain ground against the dollar going forward, as the decline has been overdone. So many have probably shorted the Euro, and will be seeking to cover. The $1.25 level for the Euro is also probably the bottom or close to it.
    Oct 4 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United Rentals: Poised For Long-Term Growth [View article]
    There was news of a constuction slowdown, for August? however it wasn't so large, and the construction numbers were doing so well until then, so it might just be an abberation.

    "Construction spending dropped 0.8 percent to an annual rate of $960.96 billion, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday in a report that also revised downward spending estimates for the

    prior two months.

    Economists polled by Reuters had forecast construction spending increasing 0.5 percent in August."
    Oct 3 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Looks Finished [View article]
    It isn't about what AMD earns now. It is about what AMD will earn around 2 years or so from now, when they will have new products worth being excited about, and hopefully large earnings then. AMD just needs to survive until then. If AMD earns very small profits until then, it will be just fine. Savvy investors who are buying AMD shares now are thinking about what AMD will be earning two or three years from now.
    Oct 1 11:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • United Rentals: Poised For Long-Term Growth [View article]
    Rising interest rates will also likely mean they can raise their rental rates, as rental is an alternative to purchasing equipment for those who need to use it.

    Rising US interest rates due to strong US economic activity might be beneficial for URI, as they may be able to increase rental rates to much more than compensate for any increase in their borrowing costs.
    Oct 1 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Gold Stocks Right Now [View article]
    It seems like gold and silver are now poised for a strong rally. Will we soon see a short squeeze in GDX and SIL? It would be fun to see these surge 50% or more.
    Oct 1 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Looks Finished [View article]
    These comments don't make sense. AMD has a huge amount of intellectual property, and has great things in the pipeline. The next 18 moths though won't be spectacular. It seems likely though that AMD will remain slightly profitable until they have a major recovery. Patience is needed. If they did get desperate enough though, there are probably several companies that would love to buy AMD. Imo AMD will probably eventually be sold, however it will probably be after they have huge earnings, and the stock price is perhaps $40+.
    Oct 1 06:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Gold Stocks Right Now [View article]
    "Why not short gold and silver now until a bottom hits and then go long on gold and silver?"

    Good luck trying to do that. Quite often it isn't apparent that a bottom was reached until after it rallied quite a bit higher. Sometimes a decline ends with a huge gap up. Those who are shorting gold and silver now might have huge losses soon.

    Those who want income while investing in gold miners and oil stocks could buy GNT shares. The GNT fund pays out 9 cents per share each month, now around 11% a year.
    Sep 30 03:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver And The iShares Silver Trust ETF Could Come Further Down [View article]
    Sales of silver futures are what is driving the silver price lower. The amount of physical silver traded is a tiny fraction of the volume of silver futures traded.
    If many buy silver futures though, then demand delivery of the actual silver, then it might have a big impact. I am long SIL and SLW as I feel sooner or later the scarcity of silver will be reflected in its price.
    Sep 30 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CEMIG: 50% Increase In Net Income Q1 2014 Over 2013 [View article]
    It isn't just CIG that has had a severe decline recently. Brazilian stocks in general have had severe declines recently. it seems like Dilma may be gaining in the polls, and she might be reelected. Many are afraid the economy will do poorly if she is reelected, and would do better if she isn't reelected.

    Another part of the story is the great strength of the US dollar. The Brazilian real is down around 10% against the dollar over the past 12 months.

    The turmoil in Asian markets recently seems to also be putting selling pressure on emerging market stocks in general.

    Also keep in mind that CIG was already down to around $5.25 earlier this year. If Dilma is defeated, Brazilian stocks in general, and especially those with large government ownership such as PBR and CIG will probably rally very strongly. If she is reelected, there might be a bit more selling pressure, then stability as the the uncertainty is gone. CIG will probably do well longer term. Imo so will VALE. I suggest not overloading on these though. Having each as around 1% to 2% of total stock holdings seems reasonable though.

    The earnings estimates(in dollars) for CIG on the WSJ website for 2015 seem to be gradually increasing.

    With CIG, there is uncertainty about the Brazilian election, uncertainty about future Brazilian rainfall(most of CIG's power power generation is from hydro), uncertainty about the Brazilian economy in general, uncertainty about the value of the real against the dollar, and uncertainty about the rates CIG will be allowed to charge in the future. CIG has formed some interesting joint ventures(such as the one with VALE) and might turn out to be a long term winner. There is plenty of risk for the shares though, which is why I suggest that people own CIG shares, but only as around 1% to 2% of their stock holdings.

    Look at VALE, SAN, GILD, and URI, which seem very cheap based on their
    earnings growth. Also look at SLW as a long term play for a recovery in the price of silver. GNT is an excellent way to play a recovery in gold and oil prices, and get a large payout(over 10% a year) while waiting.
    Sep 30 05:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver And The iShares Silver Trust ETF Could Come Further Down [View article]
    72% of silver produced is as a byproduct of the mining of other metals, especially copper, but also zinc, and lead, and to a lesser degree gold.
    So the price of copper has an effect on how much silver is mined.
    Sep 29 08:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattel Is Not A Safe Play [View article]
    I just looked at a long term chart of MAT, and saw how low the stock went in 2000. Mattel bought the Learning Company in 1999 but dumped it at a sizeable loss in 2000. If only they had stuck with it, they might have transformed it into something great.

    I guess since they were burned on that, they may be reluctant to make a large investment in high tech interactive learning products. They could make a smaller investment and try to build it up themselves, however it will take plenty of time.

    It seems like MAT may be under pressure for quite a while. What seems to be needed is for them to reinvent the company. Instead of paying out such high dividends, imo they should look for a few smaller acquisitions that they can use as bases to build on.

    The purchase of the Learning Company in 2000 clearly showed that Mattel was worried even back then that high tech interactive toys was where the market was heading. While that particular acquisition may not have been good, the thoughts that motivated it were imo quite right.
    Sep 28 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment