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6228371

6228371
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  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    "That said, it is pretty hard to get hurt badly with the likes of CVX, XOM, and COP."

    It is also hard(impossible) to double your money within a year(or even two or three) with those.
    Dec 18, 2014. 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Holding Might Be Better Than Selling At Current Price Levels [View article]
    "Even if the stock would be worth that much you have to figure in the fact that people completely lost confidence in this company."

    Perhaps you did. Not me.

    "That probably means people won't be buying back into SDRL any time soon."

    Those obsessed with dividends won't. Those seeking value will.

    Let those who are obsessed with dividends repurchase the shares when they are perhaps $25+, and paying dividends again.
    Dec 18, 2014. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: RadioShack CFO Out, Restructuring CFO In Sounds Grim [View article]
    It depends on how many swaps will be in place after Dec 20. Keeping RSH alive seems to be a game now, and as long as those with huge bets on the swaps keep supporting RSH, RSH will keep surviving.

    "With the near-term CDS expiration deadline out of the way (after Dec. 20) and it overwhelmingly clear that RSH doesn't stand much chance of a turnaround, RSH's secured lenders will most likely force them into bankruptcy in order to preserve as much of their collateral as possible before it is all "pissed away" from ongoing operating losses."

    There is a chance they might be able to avoid bankruptcy if the debt holders get scared enough into agreeing to get 90% or perhaps even 95% of the equity in exchange for the debt. The current shareholder should be happy to get any crumbs they are offered, as it is still better than zero. Perhaps 90% of the equity in exchange for 80% or 90% of the debt might be able to be worked out. It depends on how the results are for the holiday season, and if there is a plan radical enough that might get RSH back to profitability without most or all of their debt.
    Dec 18, 2014. 06:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Prices Will Rise Based On Fundamentals And Geopolitics [View article]
    The large rally in oil is just starting. There is time to add more oil stocks.
    Dec 18, 2014. 06:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Major Reasons Why The Current Low Oil Price Is Not Here To Stay [View article]
    It is not a matter of hope, it is reality. Oil is moving higher, whether you like it or not.
    Dec 18, 2014. 06:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Holding Might Be Better Than Selling At Current Price Levels [View article]
    "Then again, a court may decide it was a scam to mislead investors, and make SDRL pay."

    That is highly doubtful given the huge and rapid decline in the oil price, and the fact that the chairman owns over 24% of the shares.

    "I would have kept the stock if they halved the dividend, and just rode the storm a while longer'

    Why? Why the focus on dividends? The steep decline after the dividend was suspended was my signal to add more shares. I invest based on value, not dividends. I prefer share repurchases rather than dividends, as they are much more tax efficient.

    'Maybe getting back half of what I lost, but for now, it's a dead money stock to me, so bailed.'

    I don't see it that way. Imo SDRL seems likely to rebound quite a bit especially if oil rebounds soon, as the share purchases by the company, and by the chairman, as well as short covering are likely to produce a good rally in the stock. My three month target is $18+. Within a year though SDRL might be $25+, and perhaps even $35+.
    Dec 18, 2014. 06:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Holding Might Be Better Than Selling At Current Price Levels [View article]
    "I added shares just before the cut at around 20$. I do think it is risky to buy more now so I will not do so."

    It depends on what percentage of your portfolio is in SDRL, and what percentage of your portfolio is in oil related stocks.

    "I would rather wait a little and see if the debt is actually paid down.'

    I would prefer shares to be repurchased now. When the stock is $20+ they could start repaying debt, and slow down on the share repurchases.

    "At this point in time my stake in SDRL is less than 2% of my entire portfolio, so if it happens to go to bankrupt so be it. "

    It is sensible to keep SDRL below 2% of a portfolio. It is less than 1% of my stock holdings. I do have other oil related stocks and funds though.
    Dec 18, 2014. 06:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Does A 'Typical' Oil Downcycle Last? [View article]
    "People can find millions of reason to support oil prices to $100, $200, or even $300. But WTI is $56.56, the trend points lower oil prices."

    WTI is $58.96 now, and moving higher. Let's see if short covering will get it back over $70 before the end of the year, over $80 before the end of January, and over $95 before the end of March.
    Dec 18, 2014. 05:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Prices Will Rise Based On Fundamentals And Geopolitics [View article]
    You seem to be fantacizing. The reality is that WTI is heading higher. They couldn't even get it to stay under $55 for very long. Once the new year starts,
    oil will probably rally at a much faster pace. For now some are still locking in losses before the year ends. Most commodities are starting to rebound now.
    Dec 18, 2014. 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Holding Might Be Better Than Selling At Current Price Levels [View article]
    There are some lessons in this. First of all, invest for value and growing earnings, not dividends. Diversify properly, and don't panic if dividends are suspended. The decline after the suspension of the dividend was the reason I added shares then. If you are focused on dividends, you should assume that the higher a dividend payout is in percentage terms, the more likely it is to be reduced or suspended, as the company might find a better use for the funds.
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Does A 'Typical' Oil Downcycle Last? [View article]
    "Huge number of oil wells have been drilled in the past decade. "

    At what cost?

    "The production exceeds demand many times"

    Not quite.

    Oil was around $40 in early 1980. On an inflation adjusted basis that is equivalent to $122 today.

    "The growth is over, and won't be back."

    Huh????? Car sales are growing at huge rates in emerging market countries. Not only are populations increasing, but the number of cars per 1,000 people is greatly increasing.

    http://bit.ly/13AJc9d

    http://bit.ly/1xxihWj

    "We'll see $20-$30 oil in second half of 2015."

    Very funny. More like $120+
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WD-40: The All-Purpose Investment Choice [View article]
    "SAN is very well covered."

    By who? Do you have some links?

    GILD is well covered, however analysts don't seem to give a good rational for what they consider fair value, and how they arrived at that.


    "One of the values of SA is that it follows small caps."

    Most small caps are too risky unless someone owns a small amount of a large number of them.
    Dec 17, 2014. 10:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SPDR Gold Trust ETF - Gold Price Could Be Crushed This Week [View article]
    "The claim that interest rates have an effect on gold hasn't been shown by any charts I've seen. "

    The claim is that increases in REAL after tax interest rates have a negative effect on the price of gold. That is generally accepted. Keep in mind that if inflation is 10% and bank CDs pay 11%, you aren't taxed on the 0.9% real return, but on the full 11%. So therefore for most people(except for their retirement accounts), they would have a negative after tax real return. Many people would rather hold GLD shares and get no payouts instead of suffering with negative real after tax returns. If people can be sure to get a positive after tax inflation adjusted return, then holding GLD shares becomes much less attractive. The higher the real after tax inflation adjusted return is, the less attractive holding GLD shares become. Many make the mistake of just looking at nominal interest rate changes.
    Dec 17, 2014. 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Holding Might Be Better Than Selling At Current Price Levels [View article]
    Chad, why don't you double the number of SDRL shares you own, and bring down your average cost? I added more SDRL shares after the dividend was suspended. I wonder if any SDRL executives read SA?
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: Holding Might Be Better Than Selling At Current Price Levels [View article]
    Exactly. Notice the word "expect" and especially the word "foreseeable"?

    Who was able to foresee the oil price decline to $55?
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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