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Currently looking at coal v. NG for power generation under new EPA regs; i.e., what makes them equal? The key to coal v. NG development is (1) changing commodities market structure; (2) plant efficiency, age, and technology; and, (3) the severity, or looseness of EPA compliance expectations. Will there be a carbon tax? If so, pricing and market effects.
A side, but increasingly important area of interest is renewable capacity factors; specifically when combined with backup CTs, or other energy storage technology. Issues include: economics, response times and reliability.
Everything that I do, on a day-to-day basis, is focused on the effects on rates at the retail level. That is, what do changes in the
commodities markets, economy, or weather do to retail prices?
Over the last year or so, looked at two major issues: (1) Marcellus Shale and LNG export (with a sub area of electric pricing), and (2) Energy Efficiency and Demand Response, especially the marginal system value or avoided cost of each. Developed an avoided cost based Total Resource Cost test to analyze NPV of marginal costs and benefits of energy efficiency and demand response.
US (and European and Asian) Economy – principally their effect on energy demand. NYMEX Energy commodities markets -- NG and electric: day-ahead, futures, and strips. US EIA data and analysis. Mid-Atlantic and GOM weather patterns. Hands on participation in evolution of deregulation from PURPA in 1978 to Orders 636 and 888 to rate cap expiration. PJM RTO. Environmental aspects of energy production and use. Energy storage and backup.
Independent / boutique research firm analyst.
Commodities, Energy stocks, Retirement savings, Stocks - long, Tech stocks
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