Seeking Alpha

Jeremy's friend's  Instablog

Jeremy's friend
Send Message
Looking for good articles.
View Jeremy's friend's Instablogs on:
  • Amarin's Potential Buyers

    Rumors on Seeking alpha and Yahoo message board are flying about an acquisition deal by the end of Nov.2012.

    Amarin has confirmed in SEC filings on 10/10/2012 that they are looking at 3 options:

    1) Sale of Amarin

    2) Partnership

    3) Self marketing with overseas alliances.

    Amarin was supposed to finalize the decision by now--but evidently Sale discussions are active. This is confirmed by Canaccord anf Jeffries. Recall Canaccord started covering Amarin when it was selling at 3.27 $/share. So even with sharp decline after NCE decision delays-- her clients have made 220%.

    Now comes speculation.Many have suggested Astra Zeneca or Glaxo SK or Pfizer or Merck.The list is pretty large.

    I would rule out AZN,because they are too busy with Amylin and their new CEO is reviewing the Strategic plan--as AZN spent 5 bil.$ on acquisitions so far in 2012 under acting CEO.

    GSK is desperate--as they are facing a loss of Lovaza sales to Vascepa and later to generics .So 900mil.$ sales would drop to 100 million$ in 2015. They have contract with Pronovo till 2014--but that can be taken care off by paying licensing fees of 180 mil.$

    GSK paid 1.65 Bill.$ in 2007 for Lovaza rights in USA/Puerto Rico. I think that they are willing to pay 3.5 bil.$.But that is 23$/share.

    Amarin is hoping for 30$ plus offer.

    Will Pfizer step in to offer 32$ and clinch a BINDING DEAL before GSK haggles with 23$/share offer.

    Last year in May,2011--with only Marine Trial data--but no anchor trial data,no patents,no Reduce_IT study underway, the offers were close to 15$/share. Joe Zakrzewski wanted 30$/share. So no deal materialized.

    This time--it is different--Vascepa will be launched in 90 days.Inventories are being build up. Manufacturers names are public knowledge. Marketing is in full swings.

    If GSK does not close up the deal soon--then Pfizer or Merck will most likely . The major private equity shareholders who are on the Board of Directors--want to SELL OUT.

    So chances of a deal by the end of this year are 75%.

    Disclosure: I am long AMRN.

    Oct 13 4:27 PM | Link | 3 Comments
  • Pfizer,Merck Interested In Amarin's VASCEPA

    As VASCEPA is getting to be launched by Amarin Corp.,Pfizer and Merck are talking to Amarin's CEO Joe Zakrzewski.

    The talks in April,2011 broke down due to many uncertainties about Amarin's patent protection. Only Marine trial data for>500mg triglyceride was available.

    During last 15 months,Amarin put great effort in Intellectual property protection .Even "889" patent is now going to be issued.The examiner stated in approval:

    Lovaza and Triplix both raise LDL--which are known as causing cardiovascular problems.

    Now,FDA has asked Glaxo to change labeling for Lovaza to reflect Atrial Fibrillation risk.

    Amarin's patents protect VASCEPA to 2030,thus ensuring sales stability, 2 billion$/year and therefore higher Discounted Cash Flows.

    Also,Anchor trial 3 data reveals that 200mg-500mg population benefited significantly .So VASCEPA should get FDA approval by Aug.,2013. This adds 4-6 billion$ sales to 2 billion$ sales for > world wide.

    Reduce-It study should help FDA approval for stronger advertising message about the lowered risks from Vascepa for Cardio-problems. A similar study-JELIS was done in Japan from 1999-2005 and Epadel was shown to reduce Cardio events significantly.

    So we should be hearing soon--whether Pfizer will enter into marketing partnership like they did for Lipitor or MERCK will start a bidding war now.

    Disclosure: I am long AMRN.

    Sep 07 4:32 PM | Link | Comment!
  • FDA Asks GSK To Change Labeling For Lovaza To Add Atrial Fibrillation On Sept.4th,2012

    FDA has asked Glaxo to change labeling for Lovaza to show Atrial Fibrillation .This is when heart rhythm is irregular.

    This letter and pdf was published on Sept.4th,2012.

    This risk helps doctors prescribe Vascepa which is better for Cardiac known factors like LDL--Lovaza raises LDL,where Vascepa does not(actually lowers it.)

    Disclosure: I am long AMRN.

    Tags: AMRN, GSK, PFE, MRK, AZN
    Sep 07 3:04 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

Latest Comments

Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.