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Vitali Nazlymov, CFA, CFP

Vitali Nazlymov, CFA, CFP
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  • Short Morgan Stanley Shares [View article]
    There is more to the story than Gorman, but he is part of the problem, which can be fixed. He and his McKenzie folks have a townhall (i.e. telecon) for everything, but when they cancelled/froze our pensions, it was a two paragraph email.

    the merger with SB was and still is a disaster; and hundreds of top producers are leaving with their clients assets. This trend will accelerate in 1q13, but it can't drive the price to 12 by itself.

    The technology platform being built is something that no other firm currently has. Take my word for it, as I interviewed with all of them. So a year from now, once they fix all the bugs, it will be best in class. But I am not sure my colleagues and I have the patience to see it through. And of course, the handcuffs, 10 years of deferred comp is well under water. UBS or Wells Fargo's upfront payment to make us join them will make us whole times 3-4 over day one, and then if we continue to do what we do, we will make another 1-2MM on the back-end in 2-3 years. Had all the financials (not just MS) gone through a 10-yr period of negative returns, the math would not work.

    Numbers aside, lack of leadership is suffocating. Constant cheerleading is annoying. Lack responsibility is the last nail. Firing Gorman and his people is the best worst solution. I am long MS by default. Having said that, I see the price in the $30+ range 12 months out. "it's the economy, stupid", -- housing, manufacturing, energy, m&a, asia, even europe.

    BTW, neither myself, nor my colleagues, would be celebrating after this forecast of 50% return. We would just have fewer or smaller wounds to lick. One of Gorman's MER leutenants told me and 50 other people on record in 2007 - i don't give a shit what FINRA says, i GUARANTEE the stock is going to a $100." It is a travesty that he is still running the firm, value trap or 50% return or not.

    I long for days when ethics mattered.
    Jan 5, 2013. 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Oriental Responds to the Muddy Waters Report [View article]
    Is it me or is this an unusual albeit expected rebuttal? Typically these things remind me a scene out of "My cousin Vinny " - everything the other guy just said is bs. This time they picked one item and went overly factual. So if I were to bet a lunch, the revenue from those franchises is exactly what stated and immaterial. But what about the other accusations? You need to go check? That's cute
    Jul 19, 2012. 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jinpan International: Growth In A Rising-Demand Market [View article]
    I guess the real questios to unlocking value are - who is the auditor and what's the probability of fraud, accounting irregularities, etc. What about management?
    Jun 14, 2012. 06:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Booz Allen Hamilton Holding (BAH): FQ4 EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $1.54B (+3.2% Y/Y). (PR)  [View news story]
    Somebody needs to help me understand this. Sequestration is coming, so we lay off 200+ most valuable senior ee's so that a previously shrunk partner pool's comp goes up by 7 mm and we pay ourselves/Carlyle 135mm special div - take the cash and not invest it in gvt consulting. Why invest in bah and others at all?what am I missing?
    Jun 2, 2012. 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fushi Copperweld: Compelling Upside With Very Limited Downside [View article]
    This stock and the the above discussion make me sick. You have a global wide sell-off yesterday and the stock did not budge. So it tells me that it is not in the ETF/ mf portfolios. Otherwise, it would have been in-line with the market. Mgmgt has been dark. Nice. How can this possibly end well?
    Jun 2, 2012. 07:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top Chinese Stock Picks By Legendary Fund Managers [View article]
    "legendary". Really? Plus what they might have traded in q4 on momentum, nothing but misleading today. What a waste of cyber space.
    Jun 2, 2012. 07:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Valves Technology: A Closer Look At Recent Developments And Business Outlook [View article]
    So what happened today?
    May 8, 2012. 10:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • University Endowments Share Blame for Financial Crisis [View article]
    I am going to read the full report, but I disagree with the tone of the summary, not to mention some quotes....

    "Many alternative asset classes performed very well coming out of the credit crisis, while domestic equities have been asleep at the wheel since November 2009 "

    Really??
    ARF Funds were down 20-25% in 08 and up 15-20% in 09 as a proxy for alternatives. Most pure traditional asset class investors would have loved those returns.

    "And as Modern Portfolio Theory implied and Swensen repeatedly stressed in his annual report on the Yale endowment, they appeared to be beating their benchmarks with less volatility…"

    VN: What does "appeared" mean? Numbers are numbers. And they did have a lot less vol with much higher return.

    "It took the financial crisis for many of those responsible for these strategies to take a fuller measure of the risks they were taking by plunging into alternative investments, without adequate regulation or transparency."

    VN: not to get into a long debate on different types of risk, but again, I don't see endowment model under-performing traditional strategies in the crisis. So is this what it's about -- reg and transparency, and who is going to be doing the regulating -- authors of the report? BTW, I am all for fin'l reform, but if we are going to tell 10B+ plansponsors what to do -- this country is in trouble.

    One thing I will agree with 100% -- endowment model's track record is used as a pitch to sell retail new mediocre offerings with names like "absolute, long-short, flexible, etc". I am yet to see a good mutli-strat or arf track record simulated via 1940 act fund.
    Jun 10, 2010. 12:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Medical Technologies, Inc. F4Q09 (Qtr End 03/31/2010) Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    oops, found it.
    Jun 9, 2010. 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Medical Technologies, Inc. F4Q09 (Qtr End 03/31/2010) Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    where is the Q&A part?
    Jun 9, 2010. 11:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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