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  • Tesla's Best Month Ever In The U.S.: Do Not Get Carried Away [View article]
    The Euro currency is down over 10% since earlier this year. That's a petty big hit to Tesla on European sales.

    I wonder how the BYD/Daimler Denza is doing in China. I believe it has 185 mles range.
    Oct 5, 2014. 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The World Is Not Drowning In Oil [View article]
    Won't the rising cost of extraction (replacing cheap oil with expensive oil) reduce economic output for a given level of liquids available? Can we maintain GDP levels with more expensive oil?

    Mar 14, 2014. 07:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Despite Large Revenue Growth Splunk Is Overvalued [View article]
    In your discussion of competitors, you didn't mention VMWare's new Log Insight 1.5 nor IBM Smartcloud Analytics Log Analysis v1.2, nor HP Operations Analytics (Arcsight Logger and Vertica), all new products to directly compete with Splunk.

    In addition, open search technologies such as Elasticsearch (used by Loggly) and Logstash (used in the IBM product) are available free for companies to develop their own solutions.
    Jan 11, 2014. 02:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Are Selling Splunk And Some Of Its Competitors [View article]
    Sorry, I can see the options info. Thanks again for the link.
    Sep 25, 2013. 03:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Are Selling Splunk And Some Of Its Competitors [View article]
    Thanks for the link. I can't find optiond information on the site, only common stock?
    Sep 24, 2013. 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insiders Are Selling Splunk And Some Of Its Competitors [View article]
    Where do you find the options information? I note that 4million tigons were exercised this year, compared to the 2million shares sold by insiders reporting. There are another 14m options, of which 7.5m are exercisable now. I would like to know who holds them. If the ordinary employees are cashing out tens of millions of dollars, that is going to reduce their incentives to make the company thrive.
    Sep 24, 2013. 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VMware (VMW +2%) takes aim at Splunk (SPLK +1.1%) by launching vCenter Log Insight, a software tool for managing/analyzing the reams of log data produced by IT hardware and software to troubleshoot problems lower admin costs. VMware asserts Log Insight, which is the product of a 2012 acquisition and competes with the market-leading Splunk Enterprise (analyzes log data and many other file types), can be deployed in minutes, is tightly integrated with VMware's vCenter Operations software, and natively supports the company's vSphere virtualization software. (PR[View news story]
    IBM is starting to sell ts new Cloudsmart Log Analytics product this Friday (in Beta since March). There seems like a lot of new competition for Splunk (including Cloudera search and Loglogic analytics with Iris).
    Jun 11, 2013. 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: The Honeymoon Is Coming To An End [View article]
    Including stock options and RSs as per LNKD's 10Q, there are close to 120m diluted shares, which gives a market cap over $15bn. Barron's price is only twice LNKD.
    Oct 4, 2012. 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Remedial Math For Business Reporters Covering [View article]
    Can I make a comment on sales growth? The billings were up 30%. 40% of the growth was from new products ( plus aquisitions). A year ago, practically all sales were from old products (Sales and Service Cloud). That means their core business is growing at 18-20% (60% of 30%). That's respectable, but not earth shattering. MSFT Dynamics CRM is growing at 30%.

    Why don't analysts do some simple math to see the core business is slow and growth is being juiced by overpriced aquisitions?

    Aug 27, 2012. 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: Insight From Facebook's Earnings Regarding International Revenues [View article]
    Hiring Solutions helps companies that are trying to hire find people who aren't looking for jobs. Even if the economy was booming, that wouldn't be a big potential market. With the economy in the dodrums, the problem is that companies aren't hiring. How can analysts be enthusiastic about LNKD?

    The number of vested stock options with strike prices below $10 is huge (about 14 million including RSUs). That's a lot of insider selling and huge payoffs to staff. When they've cashed out, what's the incentive to kep working?
    Jul 28, 2012. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Red Hat Discovers Dell An Ally Against VMware Cloud Foundry [View article]
    Can you tell me where fits in the PaaS landscape?
    May 14, 2012. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Least Not Every Netflix Analyst Is Certifiably Insane [View article]
    Hi Rocco,
    Hastings deliberately lowered expectations by talking about "more than 20m streaming subs world-wide", so he could engineer this pop. I don't think that's how professional management should behave.

    I wonder how many options he is exercising this Q (per Shareholders letter). They are 10 year, so probably nominal strike price. Maybe 1m?

    Did you notice how contemptuous he was of his customers in the Q&A, saying investors probably don't watch eight hours TV per day, so they wouldn't understand NFLX customers watching one hour per day, even though there is nothing worth watching.
    Jan 26, 2012. 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Netflix Avoid Going Under In 2012? [View article]
    Hi again,
    Do you have any thoughts about the law suits? Does this sort of thing have a real and short term impact on the company, or there just a filing and then nothing happens for years?

    I think there has to be some merit to the cases: they bought back a ton of stock above $200 while they were selling, then had to desperately raise capital at $70 a couple of months later. That stinks.

    Is it possible the cases force changes: eg Hastings having to quit (like the BAC CEO Ken Lewis did when sued by the NY AG) or major provisions for legal fees/losses?

    Are they a reason for shorts to get excited?
    Jan 21, 2012. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Netflix Avoid Going Under In 2012? [View article]
    Hi Rocco,
    Do you have any thoughts on what the domestic streaming subscriber number is likely to be? In Q3 report, they said they would lose subscribers in October, flat in November and come back strongly in December. Then they gave a range of 20m to 21.5m. They had 21.45m at the end of Q3, so they were guiding at best no growth.

    Hastings has apparently said that they returned to growth at the back end of Q4. That seems consistent with the Q3 report, so there is a good possibility that they will have lower domestic subs in Q4. If true, that will shock the market. The virtuous circle will still be vicious.

    Is it possible that the recent growth raised the sub number? Surely Hastings would have said so if true, rather than just mentioning the streaming number.

    Also, the Q3 report said they would lose a couple of million DVD subscribers and I saw a report on Hackingnetflix that they were laying off staff at a major DVD distribution center. The DVD business must be in decline, but that was the only thing propping up streaming.

    I think its safe to be short.
    PS I'm annoyed you were right about LULU
    Jan 21, 2012. 05:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will's 'Aggressive Incentives' Cause It To Miss Q4? [View article]
    The English in the email is dreadful. CRM's salesforce can't be that illiterate can it?
    Dec 16, 2011. 05:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment