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User 6267481

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  • Medifast A Sell Ahead Of Earnings As Diet Sector Evolves Past Meetings And 'Coaches' [View article]
    Why the angst man? What's your track record?
    Mar 11 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medifast A Sell Ahead Of Earnings As Diet Sector Evolves Past Meetings And 'Coaches' [View article]
    I guess I meant that if someone is overweight, and they're struggling with how to "do it themselves," does Medifast appeal to the average, middle class consumer? Seems like they do, in that, it's a relatively small premium to buying meals from a grocery store...Thanks for your thoughts.
    Mar 10 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medifast A Sell Ahead Of Earnings As Diet Sector Evolves Past Meetings And 'Coaches' [View article]
    John, can you please talk about MED's role in the future of the "healthy weight loss" industry. Seems like a booming industry in the years to come, and getting healthy meals seems like a sustainable way for someone to lose and control their weight. Would appreciate some of your thoughts on MED.
    Mar 7 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medifast A Sell Ahead Of Earnings As Diet Sector Evolves Past Meetings And 'Coaches' [View article]
    I would actually like to hear more from John and less from you.
    Mar 7 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: The Bottom Is Here And Risk Is To The Upside [View article]
    Good article. I think the future is bright for AGNC...I think a very big move to the upside is coming later in 2014 as dividends increase.
    Jan 24 10:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Management Presents at Citi Global Financial Conference (Transcript) [View article]
    AGNC will do fantastically over the next 10-15 years with low rates persisting. Great time to buy now if you have a long term horizon.

    AGNC is heavily shorted from time to time, so you have to just ignore alot of the volatility.

    I see a long period of growth and income for AGNC for quite some time.
    Nov 21 08:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap mREIT sector could get cheaper [View news story]
    If interest rates rise like you speak of, there will be a major depression. Please explain to me in detail how and why the FED would lose control of the bond market.
    Nov 11 08:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheap mREIT sector could get cheaper [View news story]
    For those who think interest rates are going up, why would the FED just let that happen after all the work they've done? Why would they shoot the country they work for in the foot when they don't need to?

    Doomsday predictions talk about:
    1. Inflation
    2. Falling $USD
    3. Bond vigilantes selling their bonds, shorting bonds...
    4. 30 year bond market can't continue...
    5. China will sell their bonds...

    There is no inflation. The $USD largely has not fallen. Name me one mega-billion dollar "bond vigilatne?" What if 30 year bond market turns into a 50 year bond market? China cannot threaten the U.S. by "selling their bonds," because they desperately need the U.S.

    Point is...the mREIT sector, particularly AGNC, will have at least 10 more years of favorable conditions to have 10%+ dividends.
    Nov 11 08:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Was I Wrong? Reassessing American Capital Agency's Situation [View article]
    I think the macro environment for AGNC is favorable. The FED will keep control of the bond market keeping rates low, and they will do whatever it takes. This will allow a stable environment for AGNC's business.
    Nov 8 02:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is A Lot Of Misinformation About American Capital Agency's Q3 Earnings - They're Decent [View article]
    I don't see how rates go up, I don't buy it. If rates go up even a little bit more, housing will slow...FED's not going to let that happen.
    Oct 30 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is A Lot Of Misinformation About American Capital Agency's Q3 Earnings - They're Decent [View article]
    Exactly, I think the economy is going to be rather weak for quite some time.
    Oct 30 09:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Everything You Need To Know About Q3 And Why You Need To Be Short This mREIT [View article]
    I think the risk is to the upside, and that people shorting AGNC will not be able to sustain because the economy is not healthy enough to absorb higher rates, and won't be for quite some time. Consumer debt at record levels, no wage inflation, majority of baby boomers with little to no retirement savings...to me, these are just a few facts that smell deflationary to me, and thus favorable for AGNC.
    Oct 30 09:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Everything You Need To Know About Q3 And Why You Need To Be Short This mREIT [View article]
    Fundamentally, rates will stay very low for a very long time (10+ years) because the consumer who drives 60% of the GDP is not at all healthy, and won't be for a long time. So, there will be very little GDP growth. The FED's time horizon is infinity, and they WILL NOT lose control of the bond market for the simple fact that if they do, then there would be a depression of epic proportions, and they are not going to let that happen. Despite the dysfunction currently in the U.S., we have more operating leverage than any other country, we have a healthier than ever corporate sector, and we still control the global economy. l think now is a great buying opportunity for AGNC for the long term (10 years).
    Oct 29 10:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Upcoming Q3 2013 Income Statement Projection (Part 1) [View article]
    Great analysis, Scott!
    AGNC has been massively manipulated by short sellers and options traders for awhile, but their run is over, because the fundamentals are showing in AGNC's favor.
    I think we'll be in a low GDP growth environment (0-3%) for the next 10-15 years as massive deleveraging continues, and I think "rates" will stay low the whole time. Yes, the private sector (corporate America) has gotten pretty healthy, but consumers are just not there yet to drive the kind of growth needed to truly cause interest rates to go up. AGNC will have very favorable conditions for quite some time. In terms of Fannie/Freddie...look, if the government backs away from the housing market like is being speculated, then the housing market will collapse. The government will not let that happen. People sometimes forget, the U.S. Government's timeframe is INFINITY, and being a $16T economy with a healthy corporate sector gives the U.S. Gov't and FED lots of operational leverage to stretch this thing out for decades. China needs U.S. consumers, so they're not the threat people are talking about, they can't "mess with" the U.S. the way some speculate.

    All in all, the fundamentals are in place for AGNC to do very well in the years to come.
    Oct 10 11:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China And Japan Don't Want Our Bonds [View article]
    So, we're in a:
    1. Low growth (1 to maybe 3% best case) U.S. GDP situation for the next 10 years (minimum)
    2. Record unemployment and underemployment
    3. Massive local/state/federal gov't, corp, and household debts (causing continued headwinds for growth)

    ....hmmmmm, smells deflationary to me....I don't buy the narrative this author, and many others are putting out there about a bond market collapse. If there is a massive selloff in bonds, there will be the largest depression EVER. Let's all be honest with ourselves...the U.S. gov't is never going to lose control of the bond market. SO, I would contend that treasuries are going to do just fine in the coming years. STOCKS, on the other hand, will be extremely volatile because all of the debt will limit growth and current valuations in stocks (as of Sept 2013) cannot and will not hold up. Stocks will be range bound for at least the next 10 years.
    Sep 28 02:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
16 Comments
20 Likes