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6269751

6269751
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  • Cashing In On The Alibaba IPO With Yahoo Call Options [View article]
    My October 35 Call is currently up 24.62% - Thanks Jim!
    Aug 21 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Red Herring In Twitter's 'Facebook-Like' Ad Revenue Model [View article]
    I never understood the big run-up with Twitter stock to begin with. I'm just trying to catch the wave. It'll be interesting to see what happens. Most analysts I have access to in my broker's research tools rate it somewhat higher than a strict sell. I think if you look at the management team it is a professional one (with one originator pushed out, and the other one moved to the corporate board), so if anybody can pull it off, they can.
    Aug 21 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Desimone Is A Very Crafty Fellow [View article]
    Do you, Crimebuster, even realize you are commenting on an article that is a work of fiction? I didn't get too many comments on Herbalife's declaration of distributor compensation, for which I posted the link and provided analysis. There is no known or proven way for money to pass from the big distributors to company officers. It flies in the face of logic that they (company officers) would risk their high incomes by trying to do so.
    Aug 21 08:23 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Red Herring In Twitter's 'Facebook-Like' Ad Revenue Model [View article]
    A fairly good analysis. However I will nitpick one point: "The company has also been unable to monetize its user base at the same rate as Facebook." In absolute calendar terms yes. The difference was that Facebook already knew how to monetize, was bringing in ad revenue from day one as a public company. This was public knowledge I don't know why so many investors didn't realize it sooner. That said I am currently for the time being long Twitter. I have a stop loss order at 44.5 but so far it's holding above that level.
    Aug 21 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • John Desimone Is A Very Crafty Fellow [View article]
    Matt you should have done what QTR did, Dive Dive Dive. You had Rogier maintaining the flack. No one is going to believe this rubbish.
    Aug 21 01:26 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife And The MLM 'Industry:' The Long And Short Of It [View article]
    A nice try for the middle path, 6461431. However what the shorts ultimately want, whether or not they realize it, is for Herbalife to become absorbed into Archer-Daniels-Midland, General Mills, Monsanto, or some other conglomerate. Their products would become mere shelf comparisons with competing products. Concessions would be made to market analyses and the authenticity of the product would gradually dumb down to whatever Kellogg's is offering at a similar price point. Without the scrappy MLM model there can be no genuine product as it currently exists.
    Aug 20 05:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife And The MLM 'Industry:' The Long And Short Of It [View article]
    Thank you Toolman. I don't know if it will do any good, seeing what this argument has become, which is surreal.

    But here I will post the Herbalife document entitled "STATEMENT OF AVERAGE GROSS COMPENSATION
    PAID BY HERBALIFE TO UNITED STATES DISTRIBUTORS IN 2012":

    http://bit.ly/NuXJDz

    If you take the time to study this document, you will discern the following:

    1) Distributors cannot lose significant amounts of money. Why? The initial investment is as low as $57.75. Just as it takes money to make money, it takes money to lose money. A distributors' lack of cash flow would require him to sell the product in able to buy more product. In the worst case, he can't sell it: so he just eats the stock. The stock will sustain him for some period of time while he is looking for another job, is nutritious, and cheap per serving.

    2) There is no connection to the top of the "pyramid." The distributors form the shape of the pyramid. You can imagine the successful distributors at the top of the structure, and distributors are the structure. There is no reason for a distributor to pass any monies to Herbalife Inc., except as payment for the product being distributed. Thus the only way the core company can make money is in exchange for product.

    3) The company was NOT formed from a single master distributor and built mathematically like a geometrical pyramid. Rather it grew organically, so the shape would be more aptly be pictured as a flat-topped mound. The company's only control of distributors is that it has to know what price to charge them for the product. This is an extremely common practice in industry and the food industry in particular. If I can routinely account for the purchase of 1000 pallets of product per month, I am due a volume discount. I could be a mean person and recruit distributors who are also mean and get people to work for nothing. But these layers of mean people have to be given a volume discount, and there is only so much discounting that can be sustained before there is no margin left between the minimum wholesale cost and the cost of production of the product.

    Q.E.D.
    Aug 20 10:15 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife And The MLM 'Industry:' The Long And Short Of It [View article]
    You're right Rogier is just doubling down. He even reasserts his confidence in that internet presence Heck on Wheels. "She" locked down a Twitter account after Sam Antar caught him/her posting forged documents there. There is no evidence of any kind that "she" successfully delivered anything at all to FinCen. Finally there is no reason to believe that FinCen, which was created by the Treasury department to address money laundering, would have an interest in doing anything in this matter, even if it came from a reputable source.
    Aug 19 10:06 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife And The MLM 'Industry:' The Long And Short Of It [View article]
    I bought my first container of Herbalife F1. Since last Friday my weight has decreased 5 lbs (1.25 lbs per day). Even if your lot reduce the company to charred ruins, there will probably be enough supply around for me to lose about two stone. Health is wealth!
    Aug 19 08:04 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter Needs A Facebook-Like Focus To Succeed [View article]
    The accidental investor: I bought a cheap call option which just barely delivered at 44.5 Since then TWTR has gone up 1.55% It doesn't look like Twitter is tracking Facebook anymore in terms of stock valuation. Facebook is up quite nicely today while Twitter is staying range-bound. So I hope Twitter management comes up with something but I'm not sure that copying Facebook is the answer. They have to learn how to leverage the currency of internet apps, which is information about users.
    Aug 19 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantifying World Cup Impact - What Twitter Could Learn From Comcast [View article]
    I'm an accidental long. I bought a cheap call option at 44.5. It didn't increase in value enough to resell so I got the shares at expiration. Here's hoping it can struggle up to $50. If not I have a stop loss order for protection.
    Aug 18 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bridge Watch On The MS Herbalife [View article]
    Internet says FinCen is investigating Herbalife. I did not make that up. The website is called Seeking Alpha, which has some credibility, even though they were recently abandoned by Yahoo Finance.
    Aug 18 11:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Ackman's Campaign Is A Gift To The Long-Term Herbalife Shareholder [View article]
    Allergan is already fighting back with a lawsuit in federal court in California. There is also a potential for judgement from Delaware where they are incorporated. Ack! man is also suing the federal government over the way it resolved the crisis in the mortgage industry. I'm sure none of these will affect the FTC which is an independent agency.
    Aug 17 10:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bridge Watch On The MS Herbalife [View article]
    First it was QTR playing Larry King with Sam Antar, then Matt Stewart ran buffalo off a cliff, and finally the shark: an SA version of Marilyn Vos Savant, Hell on Deals, to show that Herbalife is a money-laundering operation. Along the way we had comparisons to Bernie Madoff and Al Capone. It was as good as Monty Python's "Spamalot." I guess we could call it "Scamalot."
    Aug 14 11:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cashing In On The Alibaba IPO With Yahoo Call Options [View article]
    Jim Brody, I followed your advice and I'm glad I did. My YHOO Oct14 35 Call is doing just fine. However your stance about not caring about the core business puzzles me. I think they lucked out with Alibaba, companies invest money, but usually also have a core business to make sure profits occur. So is Yahoo's core business investing in other companies? I heard an interview with Marissa Mayer, I'm not sure she is in sync with that. She sounded like developing web applications was the core business. And it's not clear whether Yahoo can succeed in that going forward.
    Aug 14 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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