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gensearch2

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  • Apple Is Still Worth $113 After Results [View article]
    The "problem" you have to contend with is what happens when you go above your guideline number.

    You're not going to sell one share of AAPL every time you trickle over 10%.

    Then you have the logic of selling your best performers to do what? Buy non-performers? That doesn't sound right.

    What is your buy guideline. When you buy a position, do you take a position that is 5% of your portfolio, thus allowing it to go to 10% before you sell?

    I have a portion of my portfolio that is in income producing equities and funds, e.g., preferred stocks to manage risk. I don't expect them to appreciate any significant capital gains. Assuming that my growth stocks appreciate more than my preferred stocks, I would always going to sell my over performing stocks to buy a potentially under performing stuff.

    I think you're on a good track to managing risk, there are just multiple ways to manage risk. How risk tolerant are you and over what period of time? I'm 64 and far more risk tolerant than I "should" be. But I'm not tapping into my nest egg and don't have any plans to do so.

    My nest egg could drop in half and I don't expect to tap into it for at least 5 years. In five years it would likely fully recover.
    Jul 28 08:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Game Of Inches [View article]
    If history repeats itself, and it frequently does, I expect the not so brilliant analysts to declare it a flop at release. They did with the iPod, the iPhone and the iPad. Are the analysts any smarter now, then they were on all those "flops" they called?
    Jul 27 12:52 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com 'Come To Jesus' Earnings Report [View article]
    There was an unused shopping mall in the area. They bulldozed it down and it's going to be a bunch of office buildings.

    What I found a confusing was there is a strip mall less than a mile away. It's doing and was doing a good business. Now doing a little better. I don't quite understand why the strip mall was doing well, but the enclosed mall not. The enclosed mall had anchor stores but the strip mall didn't.
    Jul 27 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Still Worth $113 After Results [View article]
    FWIW. I've been tracking institutional ownership in AAPL since April. It's steadily been notching down since then. My check this am shows the first notch up in institutional ownership since April. Praise Apollo and Venus.
    Jul 26 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com: Bezos Seriously Testing Investors' Patience And Trust After Guiding For A Big Loss [View article]
    Betting on green makes as much sense as betting on AMZN.
    Jul 26 08:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon.com 'Come To Jesus' Earnings Report [View article]
    One is never sure whether Morningstar (or any other house) is bullish on the company because it's a good investment or if their recommendation is nothing more than following the tape.
    Jul 25 02:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com: Bezos Seriously Testing Investors' Patience And Trust After Guiding For A Big Loss [View article]
    If AMZN continues to drop, we'll see how important growth vs. profit really is to Bezos.

    My guess is the the only profit Bezos really cares about is his own personal profit.

    But time will tell. I'm seeing some pretty grumpy quotes from investors\analysts. Bezos is going to have to come up with something better than "trust me".
    Jul 25 02:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple rallies post-earnings; Street focuses on margins, iPhone 6 [View news story]
    I am having some difficulty with the word "euphoria". Apple was up 2.6% yesterday on earnings. Volume was about double of the average. AAPL has another $3 to go just to get back to where it was almost two years ago.

    Is that really "euphoria"?
    Jul 24 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Hedge Funds Are Expecting Apple To Crush Earnings Estimates [View article]
    Thanks. I've done a quick read, but will take another look.
    Jul 24 07:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple rallies post-earnings; Street focuses on margins, iPhone 6 [View news story]
    Holding AAPL until the 6 is released is a bet with good odds.
    Jul 23 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple rallies post-earnings; Street focuses on margins, iPhone 6 [View news story]
    The android OS is fragmented and their ecosystem is fragmented. You have your Samsung App Store, your Google Play store and now your Amazon App Store.

    I think Google made a major strategic error in allowing manufacturers to customize their Android and permit competing app stores.
    Jul 23 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Still Worth $113 After Results [View article]
    Over 43 million shares traded as of this post isn't AAPL.
    Jul 23 11:08 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Everyone Expects Apple To Beat... And That Is The Problem [View article]
    Whispers just posted an Alpha article today ...

    http://bit.ly/1r3P7Jn

    They have a table that shows when AAPL misses the Whispers number, on average Apple is up 8.34%. [after 30 days]

    If AAPL meets the Whispers number, AAPL is down 3.09%

    If AAPL beats the Whispers number, AAPL is up only 3.98%

    If you're a bull, you have to be rooting that AAPL misses the Whispers number which is what you're predicting. Hip, hip, hoorah.

    The other interesting part of the article by Whispers is that Whispers is more accurate than the street 67% of the time.

    Should I really be rooting for Apple to miss the Whispers number based on their own statistics?

    P.S. Whispers didn't offer an statistics in this particular article on the relationship between the regular earnings estimates and share price. Maybe the correlation is worse, maybe better.

    P.P.S. AAPL only met the Whispers number once in 64 quarters of Whisper numbers. It's reasonable to conclude that a single instance has no statistical value. Hence, beating or missing the Whispers number is a solid contrarian indicator for AAPL share price over the next 30 days. .... Go figure.
    Jul 22 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Poised To Beat The Whisper Number? [View article]
    It looks like bulls best hope is for AAPL to miss the Whisper Number?
    Jul 22 12:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's Why Hedge Funds Are Expecting Apple To Crush Earnings Estimates [View article]
    We now have three "market expectations"

    The standard one CNBC quotes; the whisper number; and estimize.com.

    What's the basis of your assertion that estimize.com is the real market expectations?
    Jul 22 07:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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