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JeffLeach1986

JeffLeach1986
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  • QuickChat #225, February 22, 2012 [View instapost]
    Of the 54 nuclear reactors in Japan, only 2 are still up and running. And those two will be brought offline in March for a period of time. So Japan now has to import all of its energy. The last 4 months, Japan has had a negative trade balance probably attributed to the import of oil and natural gas.
    Feb 25 10:18 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just What Is the Real Exposure To Greece? - Part 1 [View article]
    Any form of the word "default" triggers credit default swaps. No one knows how much exposure there is to CDS. The CDS exposure is likely in the trillions. So no European government or bank wants to see a dafault. They would like to somehow redefine the word "default" in such a way that Greece's debt is written down, but doesnt trigger the CDS payments.

    Should that happen then that will be another can of worms with huge litigation.
    Feb 25 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat#224, February 14, 2012 [View instapost]
    No information out there for the masses. Just speculation. One wonders if there is some type of insider information has been leaked?

    Reminds me of less than a year ago when the scandal broke out involving Anthony Weiner. As he was going out the door after resigning, he gave out one tidbit of advice which was to buy the VIX. Two months later the VIX made a 150 percent run up in value.

    He was of course privy to information within Congress that was issued behind closed doors that if traded upon would be considered insiders trading. That is if Congress was not exempt from the same rules regarding insiders trading that everyone else is subject to.

    http://tinyurl.com/7y3...

    There is information out there that individuals know that we dont know and are trading on that information. Legal it is not but difficult to catch. The TVIX last week had two hundred million shares traded, and the stock went up on several days that that S$P was also up on.

    I am still holding my shares of TVIX though it gave up that 12 percent gain that I had last week. Still waiting for the equity market to top out and give up some of its gains. Though I am a bit more nervous now.
    Feb 21 10:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat#224, February 14, 2012 [View instapost]
    Mercy,

    Last 7 trading days have seen more than 200 millions shares of TVIX traded. Average volume normally is around 5 to 7 millions shares per day. Just about every one of those last 7 trading days would have been an all time high volume. That is a lot of hedging. Cant find anything negative out there that may affect TVIX to the down side.
    Feb 21 09:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat#224, February 14, 2012 [View instapost]
    LT,

    I think the markets will actually close down today. Substantial sell off this afternoon. Profit taking. But I am usually wrong. :)
    Feb 21 12:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat#224, February 14, 2012 [View instapost]
    BLS will report the unemployment numbers as 9 percent. But this will be interpreted as good news, meaning that people that were not being counted as unemployed now have hope and are looking for work again.
    Feb 21 10:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat#224, February 14, 2012 [View instapost]
    Headwinds for the end of Friday. Gallup shows the unemployment rate going from 8.3 to 9 percent.

    http://tinyurl.com/89c...
    Feb 21 10:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Mega-Trend That Guarantees The Cost of Living Will Rise [View article]
    Your chart shows those question marks at around 2004/2005. Part of that big surge in prices around that time can be attributed to the replacement of MTBE with Ethanol as a fuel additive. 2006 the price of corn went up from around 250 a bushel to close to 400. And corn was used as feed for farm animals so a rise in the cost of corn affected everything else.
    Feb 21 08:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat#224, February 14, 2012 [View instapost]
    The three legs down in your analysis were all precipitated by a specific events. There was the Tsunami in Japan back in March, then in June there was the expiration of QE2, and finally the big one in July was the gridlock in Congress over the debt limit as well as Europe.

    Market appears to be topped out and volume for those inverse leveraged ETFs is very high right now. So there are a lot of folks out there that are hedging for some down side. There are also lots of world events that could trigger a leg down. No need to repeat what those are.

    I would say that the propensity for the market to go down has a greater probability than for it to go up.
    Feb 18 10:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat#224, February 14, 2012 [View instapost]
    Was expecting something to happen last month regarding Iran.
    Feb 18 01:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat#224, February 14, 2012 [View instapost]
    This almost sounds like Enron and all the "bad luck" things that happened to jack up the price of electricity for California.
    Feb 17 01:43 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat#224, February 14, 2012 [View instapost]
    <Puts on a tin foil hat>

    Supposedly fake....... :)
    Feb 17 01:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat#224, February 14, 2012 [View instapost]
    Rain,

    Interesting chart on gasoline deliveries. Huge drop off. Yet everyone expects the price of gasoline to be over 4 bucks soon at the local pumps. Wonder if there is a refinery that is not online at the moment that is going through some type of maintenance cycle?

    The diesel drop off might be due to the milder winter in the north east? Fuel oil used in my furnace here in New York is diesel with a dye added. Dont see any drop off from the AAR report:

    http://tinyurl.com/6pb...
    Feb 17 10:02 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat#224, February 14, 2012 [View instapost]
    markets nervous. TVIX up 6 percent a couple of minutes before Philly Fed Index comes out.
    Feb 16 09:57 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QuickChat#224, February 14, 2012 [View instapost]
    Huge volume on TVIX, VXX, UVXY, QID, and XIV over the last couple of days. New record high on volume for TVIX today. Yesterday was also a record high.

    http://tinyurl.com/7fv...
    Feb 15 10:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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229 Comments
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