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erryl

erryl
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  • Low Risk Way To Use Silver As An Inflation Hedge [View article]
    The risk of confiscation is probably less than your counter party risk is (e,g,. bank closure). The Canadian banking system in 2008 proved to be stronger than the US banks, but I still think that is your largest risk... which hopefully is quite small. Just "sayin' ,...
    Mar 26 10:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • T. Rowe Price: A Long-Term Buying Opportunity In A Dividend Stock [View article]
    I like the stock, but not its price. It is priced giving a <2% div yield. Too low!
    (TROW)
    Mar 23 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who's To Blame For The Emerging-Market Crisis? [View article]
    This isn't the first time that hot money from foreign investors have pumped up EM's only to quickly remove the stimulus when it looked like the party was over. It has happened time and time again. It is a big problem for EM countries.
    Feb 2 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exelon Revisited [View article]
    I retired after working 25 years at an Exelon nuclear plant. Exelon has one of the, if not the highest, ratings of all the nuclear plant operators. The NRC recently has allowed Fort Calhoun in Nebraska to restart after the operator of the plant agreed to step down and let Exelon operate it. Exelon operates the remaining operational plant at TMI. INPO gives several in Exelon's plants their highest rating. Smurf, I don't know where you get your opinion that Exelon is not a.decent company, but it is wrong. It may or may not be a good stock purchase right now, but it is very much a good company with very talented employees.
    Jan 28 04:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway: Shooting Dead Fish In A Drained Barrel [View article]
    Analyzing BRK's balance sheet is not as easy as it seems. Much of the equity holdings are purchased with insurance float. This float is supposed to be money held as a reserve against future insurance claims. If your insurance business is good and float is always increasing, then the float is a stable source of funding and can be invested long term, but I think that it is a mistake to consider those holdings as company assets, instead of a fund for future insurance claims. The difference between BRK and most insurance companies is that BRK invests the float in stocks, while most ins cos. invest their float in Treasuries. I am not saying Buffett isn't a genius, I am just saying that it is wrong to consider all the BRK securities portfolio as an asset. At least part of it should be considered a loan from the insurance business.
    Jan 17 09:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire's Earnings Are Understated By $4.5 Billion Annually [View article]
    I think that it is a mistake to add the value of Berkshire's investment portfolio to the value of Berkshire's operating companies, because much of that portfolio is purchased with insurance float... money that is not really Berkshire's. It is money that Berkshire is holding for future insurance claims. Admittedly, in an ongoing insurance business this float can be a stable source of funds, but it is still essentially money borrowed from the insurance business. Most insurance companies would invest the float in Treasuries... Berkshire invests it in riskier, but more rewarding, investments. Insurance companies don't add the value of their float to their equity... Again, because it is a fund to pay future claims.
    Dec 5 08:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: 0.2416 Reasons To Own [View article]
    Dbrownst, I agree with all your comments. I sold my shares of LINE and BRY, because I couldn't stand the volatility. I do think it would be wise to wait for an oil price turnaround before making a new purchase. It probably doesn't impact the dividend thanks to the hedging, but declining oil and nat gas will hurt the whole sector.
    Dec 3 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Wife's IRA: Cutting Losses, What Next To Buy, And Why? - August 2013 [View article]
    Check out UL, SE, or WFC. -- erryl
    Aug 30 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcoa Inc. Sheds Light On Automotive Sector Metals' Performance [View article]
    Is this additional auto metal structural in the auto frame or is it to make the auto skin from aluminum? Anybody out there know?
    Aug 29 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Chance To Buy Corn At A Potential Bottom [View article]
    There is some reason to be bullish as the price has to be close to the cost of production. The weather, while much better than last year, has not been anywhere near record breaking... parts of Minnesota couldn't get a corn crop in because it stayed too cold too long... parts of the eastern corn zone have weather damage due to excessive moisture... much of the corn belt is getting too few degree-days to properly mature the ears. If the market has priced in a record corn crop, then I think it is wrong. The downside is that a large part of the international market doesn't want our GMO corn, South American supply has grown tremendously (I am sure at the cost of rain forrest acreage), use in ethanol fuel is likely to decrease with an oil and nat gas boom across the US, and there was a lot of demand destruction last year with high prices. I think you can make any fundamental case you want for corn. Long term I am bullish on commodities, but corn isn't my favorite... I dislike GMO and favor organic production, like Grantham I think the US ag farm model is unsustainable, and I am not fond of meat as a healthy food (I eat vegan, but especially hate highly prcessed foods full of corn products). I bought CORN last year... made some money before losing it all back. I had to hold my nose to do it, though. Long term, I like it about as much as a "good" tobacco stock. I am not sure we will get a farm bill out of Congress... and what will that do to corn prices? Just a thought...
    Aug 14 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From Warren: An Analyst Visits Berkshire's Annual General Meeting [View article]
    "The shareholders who go to the AGM are generally well-off (one "A" share last traded for US$171,000), even tempered (buy and hold - it's a really long time!) and older (think the movie "Cocoon", or if you are too young to know what that is, think of your grandparents), and cardigans outnumber business jackets by an eye-popping number." Not true. You can go to the meeting if you own 1 "B" share... a little over a hundred bucks. I saw many young people there that were not rich.
    Jul 17 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shady Accounting Makes This Stock Attractive? [View article]
    There is considerable belief, based on the price of BRY and LNCO, that the deal will not go through or the price for BRY will be sweetened. At current prices, BRY shareholders would be crazy to vote for the deal. There may be an opportunity in LINE shares, because the spread between LINE and LNCO share prices seems unsustainable (the assets of 1 share of LNCO are 1 share of LINE, the only difference is the tax treatment)... and the yield of LINE is awfully high, even if the deal doesn't go through. I'm long BRY and LINE, but pretty badly in the red.
    Jul 12 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Many Ponzi-Like MLP Blow-Ups To Follow [View article]
    I hope you are wrong. I will not say you are wrong, because I don't know. I disagree with you that the answer is obvious. LINE's focus on older, well understood oil deposits, instead of exploration, make it different than most EP companies. Its extensive use of long term hedges make it different. Despite that, I wouldn't expect its business model to fall apart with oil at $100+ a barrel and nat gas prices well off their lows.
    Jul 5 09:17 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Don't Believe The (Negative) Hype [View article]
    Thanks... a very well written article. I am long BRY.
    May 9 10:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More from Omaha: Andrew Ross Sorkin asks if Dodd-Frank banking rules will affect the profitability of Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) investments. Buffett says investments in US Bancorp (USB), M&T Bank (MTB), and similar holdings are not likely to be disproportionately affected, although returns on tangible equity at some holdings will be lower going forward. Buffett also opines on speculation, saying subsequent bubbles will not likely be the fault of the financial sector. Munger: "I do not see why massive derivative books should be mixed up with insured deposits ... [I don't like] bankers acting like investment bankers." (NY Times, WSJ[View news story]
    I think Buffett would say that bankers should be more like the ones he invests in.
    May 4 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
33 Comments
43 Likes