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  • How The Micro-Hybrid Revolution Will Radically Change The Battery Market [View article]
    Frankly, I do not know what kind of contract is signed where a company/purchaser can order a product in the $ 400,000 to $ 500,000 range,

    the seller then buys components or ingredients and inventories for production, and then the seller initiates production,

    but then there is no delivery and the seller says we started making it
    but no delivery date is set.

    In a typical situation, and I understand market fluctuation changes things from time to time, if Axion is ready to deliver, then Norfolk Southern is in breach of the agreement by not accepting or paying. Or if NS is ready to pay and Axion can't deliver, then Axion is in breach of this agreement.

    I don't claim to know what is going on here, it is the darndest thing I have seen in a long time. I have never witnessed such a contract where a relatively large order is made, product is initiated, and no one requests delivery, and no one delivers, and no one seems to really care. The response seems to be one of oh well, if we deliver we deliver lets wait and see if they want it.

    That is not an order in my book. An order is an order and there is a meeting of the minds, product, money and delivery is a date agreed upon. No one generally is in a position to say, hey we want $ 500,000 worth and we may or may not accept that in a few months, but that is our order.

    If you do not find this strange, or unique, or concerning, that is your business or your thought or opinion, I do find this unusual, concerning and not ordinary at all.

    To me it says there is an issue, we (NS) need more time for study,
    send us a small order in the interim to do more study.

    Seekingalpha was kind enough to post the most recent Axion 10 Q conference call transcript, So I am sure they won't mind me linking or quoting it here.

    The Norfolk Southern issue is address during the conference call Q & A; yes I posted above also, repeated here below only for your convenience.

    HT and others, It appears to me the large order was made in April 2012, but NS decided they wanted to receive a small order first, perhaps to do some followup testing. I think that a reasonable speculation, yours too may be interpreted as reasonable.

    F. "Operator

    And the next question is from Michael Holt.

    Michael Holt

    Two quick questions. First off, last quarter you mentioned the $400,000 purchase order by Norfolk Southern, and then a follow up in this call about the additional 88,000 for the remaining balance. Has the $400,000, that purchase order has that actually been delivered? Shouldn’t that show through in the revenues. And then second question, as I see a large increase in your work in progress, in the inventory, any comments on that or is that just seasonality?

    Tom Granville - CEO
    That's a two or three part question there. The $400,000 was part of the first phase purchase order from BMW, it was $475,000 purchase order. So they gave us a new purchase order that made up a balance of that 75 plus an additional order for $13,000 for more PbC batteries.

    We have not shipped any of those batteries for any of the purchase orders.

    We have however as I was mentioning a few minutes ago, made some of that product and have that product aimed up ready to shift. We've made carbon electrodes for other of those batteries. So there is a lot of inventory product that is waiting for shipment to Norfolk Southern.

    Michael Holt

    Okay, so the $488,000 replaced the $400,000 and I would expect to see that $488,000 be in the receivables fine then?

    Tom Granville - CEO

    Not yet. It hasn’t been shipped yet.

    What you’ll see in the receivables line is the $13,850 because those batteries will be shipped to them. "

    " What you’ll see in the receivables line is the $13,850 because those batteries will be shipped to them. "

    Very interesting, seems like they delayed delivery and payment on the large order, but may well want a small order for additional testing before agreeing on the large order.

    " What you’ll see in the receivables line is the $13,850 because those batteries will be shipped to them. "

    If the 13,850 "will be shipped to them" I believe it fair to interpret that as saying the other order may not be. Stay tuned.
    Dec 27, 2012. 01:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Micro-Hybrid Revolution Will Radically Change The Battery Market [View article]
    I am not picking on the author nor anyone else. There is no abuse here.

    The first sentence in my first post on this article reads :

    "I urge caution when reading these posts. Let me explain quickly."
    There were many enthusiastic posts. The author replied to me, and so I to him, and politely so.

    I am just cautious when it comes to enthusiasm; I like to express my concerns, perhaps they will be corrected perhaps not and they are then shown as true reasonable concerns. That is the purpose of the seekingalpa board, discussion.

    I will report, from my reading and recollection, that when the last big financing took place in 2009, ( there was a small 9.4 million financing in February 2012 ) the author was very enthusiastic about it and told the reader so.

    Why I'm Thrilled by Axion Power's Financing Transaction
    December 23, 2009

    On November 16, 2009 you are aware Axion price closed at
    On December 23, 2009,
    December 2012 it is now at

    I applaud the enthusiasm and only wish the author and the company Axion great success. But this does not mean I have to agree with the enthusiasm, there are some issues or interpretations I do not agree with. And I think the past history has shown, it is smart to question enthusiasm, thats my thought, you are welcome to your own.
    Dec 27, 2012. 01:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Micro-Hybrid Revolution Will Radically Change The Battery Market [View article]
    I can only suggest you read the SEC Filings and refer to the conference call. I know I do. I will rely on the companys writings and statements.

    A. You the author claim " The company will have to go back to the market for more money by the end of Q2, ..."

    While The company claims:

    Axion Power International/Inc · 10-Q · For 9/30/12

    " Going Concern
    The accompanying consolidated financial statements have been prepared assuming that the Company will continue as a going concern. At September 30, 2012 the Company’s working capital was $6.8 million. During the first nine months of 2012, the Company had revenue of $6.7 million and a net loss of $6.4 million. The financial resources of the Company will not provide sufficient funds for the Company’s operations beyond March 31, 2013, as those operations currently exist."

    "The need to secure additional funding to continue operations past the first quarter of 2013 is the result of various factors..."

    " We believe that the currently available funds at September 30, 2012, which includes the net proceeds of $8.6 million from our February 2012 registered direct common stock offering and internally generated funds from products sales will provide sufficient financial resources for the current development stage operations, working capital and capital expenditures through the first quarter of 2013. "

    "Subsequent sources of outside funding will be required to fund the Company’s working capital, capital expenditures and corporate operations beyond March 31, 2013. No assurances can be given that the Company will be successful in arranging the further funding needed to continue the execution of its business plan including the development and commercialization of new products, or if successful, on what terms. Failure to obtain such funding will require management to substantially curtail, if not cease operations, which will result in a material adverse effect on the financial position and results of operations of the Company.

    B. You the author claim "the PbC is already perfected" . In the past you have claimed commercial production, and I have corrected that previously if I recall correctly. But please do not listen to me, I am not here to argue with you, only to help, see what the company reports:

    The company:

    Axion Power International/Inc · 10-Q · For 9/30/12

    " We are a development stage company that was formed in September 2003 to acquire and develop certain innovative battery technology. Since inception we have been engaged in research and development of new technology to manufacture carbon electrode assemblies for our lead-acid-carbon energy storage devices that we refer to as our PbC® devices. "

    " Because we are a development stage company, typical investor financial measures are not particularly relevant or helpful in the assessment of company operations. "

    " We believe we need to continue to characterize and perfect our products in house and through a limited number of demonstration projects before moving into full commercial production. While the results of this work are moving toward that goal, we cannot provide assurances that the products will be successful in their present design or that further R&D will not be needed. "

    " · Our primary activity in our current development stage consists of R&D efforts for advanced battery applications, initial development, sales and marketing efforts to commercialize our advanced battery applications and the manufacture of PbC carbon electrode devices for testing, pilot demonstrations and potential customer applications. "

    C. The company further reports:

    "As previously stated, software improvements and mechanical tweaking continue to improve thru-put on our automated robotic electrode production line. This is an ongoing process and we will utilize what we have learned in future electrode production lines. The line currently runs end to end and provides us more than enough capacity for our short term needs. "

    So they already have planned or expressed a need for future electrode production lines. Of course those lines would have to be bought and paid for and installed and CERTIFIED by OEM prior to "commercial production"

    The OEM Certification process I am told is complex and stringent and can take up to a year.

    D. If energy density is not a problem or an issue, then why do they need two (2) battery system. I an certain the author agrees that the Axion PbC battery cannot be and will not be used in start stop as a single battery system.

    The company tells us about the two battery system (being in its infancy):

    Axion Power International/Inc · 10-Q · For 9/30/12
    "In May of 2012, we were awarded a $150,000 Phase I grant from the U.S. Department of Energy to fund a commercialization plan for the use of its PbC batteries in a “low-cost, high-efficiency” dual battery architecture for micro-hybrid vehicles. We have begun work on this nine month Phase I grant,..."

    $ 150,000 put toward it and phase I. I dare say $ 150,000 is peanuts in the battery business.

    E. My own opinion on a couple issues:

    I. The author claims:
    If JCI were to purchase Axion Power
    "risks under Federal Antitrust laws would be substantial"

    With zero (0) commercial production, zero (0) market share,
    I cannot imagine there would be any anti-trust issue. I cannot imagine JCI would want the Axion facility, I understand it is relatively small and is under lease, not owned. So that leaves patent area only which it looks like they are not interested in anyway.

    II. The author reports: " My average cost is in the $1.25 range and I've never felt better about my risk reward profile."

    With the stock being at .28, and an estimate of an 80 - 90 % loss for the author, I think that is rather accurate, and shows an inherent bias.

    III. The author reports: "Axion has already expressed an intention to be a component supplier to the entire battery industry."

    Again, if JCI, Exide, East Penn, etc. were all to compete making the same battery with the same component, margin would likely be curtailed. My concern is no windfall, likely not much profit in it.

    If JCI, Exide and East Penn buy the component, but must stock inventory, manufacture, sell and warranty the battery, why would they give the lion share of the profit to axion. My guess is they would not.

    I will not go through all of the author's "counterpoints"
    I do not have the time nor patience. I think it clear my post
    and this reply are based on sound reasoning and the companies own statements.
    Dec 27, 2012. 12:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Micro-Hybrid Revolution Will Radically Change The Battery Market [View article]
    Don I appreciate what you offer and agree. One must incorporate margin, as you mention. Even if it all falls in place for Axion as proposed by the author and Axion is producing the electrodes and Exide, JCI, East Penn, China___, whomever is producing and selling the batteries (the purported Axion model), I find it doubtful the Exides and JCI's will take a low cut of the money, while taking all the risk and cost of production, distribution, sales, and warranty.

    Margins are typically low, OEMS demanding low prices. I would like to see an analysis of what Axion can potentially claim as a profit. I don't think by any margin it would be a windfall. Look what Exide has gone through through the years. Currently Axion is burning approx. 2 million per quarter, with no proof any of their sales has resulted in profit.

    The author may claim the Axion sale price to Norfolk is $ 400 and will come down from there. But it is equally likely Axion is selling to Norfolk below cost, afterall Norfolk is doing the testing for Axion (testing which by the way has been significantly delayed, Norfolk was said to have ordered batteries in April 2012, it is now December 2012, and no delivery of batteries was made (as far as I know)).

    I think we all want Axion to succeed, it would be fantastic if they did. They have been trying hard, there is no doubt about that.
    There was an interesting history posted on the yahoo board
    here it is again if you missed it. History shows it ain't simple.
    Dec 26, 2012. 03:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Micro-Hybrid Revolution Will Radically Change The Battery Market [View article]
    While Axion may have been careful in selecting its target markets, it is probably a good idea to take a look at the history of the target markets, and what Axion has accomplished in them during the past 5 years.

    There is an excellent post on the yahoo board which goes through a good deal of the history so instead of reinventing the wheel

    As it is laid out in a long post the link is more convenient then repetition.
    Dec 26, 2012. 03:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Micro-Hybrid Revolution Will Radically Change The Battery Market [View article]
    I urge caution when reading these posts. Let me explain quickly.

    I understand the 30 HT PbC is a new "variety" and that it has not been tested for 3 years. I understand it is a little bit larger than the initial PbC battery that was being testing during the past 3 years. In any event, I understand it is still labeled as a proto-type by the company in their SEC filings. The author may interpret this as the company perfected the battery, but the company is not saying that, and I recall GM received a grant for Axion for $ 150,000 to improve the battery. It looks like GM is not moving to put the Axion PbC in their cars without improvement.

    I also understand The Axion battery is said to have specific energy to 15–25Wh/kg instead of 30–50Wh/kg for the conventional or AGM. And I think this is where the JCI concerns grow.

    As mentioned by others, JCI recently came out and clearly reported (in writing) " Micro Hybrid applications will require a “non-lead-acid” energy storage solution. " . And JCI followed with a conference reporting future vehicle demands are simply too much for the lead acid varieties. JCI spoke about future design/demand. The author continues to bring up a 2010 BMW Axion Istanbul report; but the JCI report is 2 years later. So I imagine JCI based their opinion on that Istanbul report, but also on an additional two years of testing.

    The author wants to interpret the JCI statement, as pertaining to JCI's batteries alone, and not to the other lead-acid varieties. I don't see any specifics that would support this interpretation.

    I understand that JCI is not only aware of the PbC battery, but if I recall correctly Axion even tested the JCI AGM battery for JCI. JCI likely has quite a bit of testing and other documentation regarding the Axion PbC battery, well more information and documentation than we will ever be privy to. I am sure JCI has access to and understands the Axion DOE applications (you are aware the DOE turned down the Axion grant in 2011) as well attended many conferences, even sponsored some in the last few years.

    You are also aware that recently Johnson Controls sought to acquire A123's automotive assets out of bankruptcy for $251 million jointly with Japan's NEC. So these are very experienced corporations seeking to acquire technology for micro-hybrid and willing to spend considerable sums of money to do so.

    If my understandings are true JCI then knows of the Axion Battery, has tested with Axion, and not only reports "Micro Hybrid applications will require a “non-lead-acid” energy storage solution" they get together with NEC and put a $ 251 million dollar bid on AONE assets.

    If actions speak louder than words, JCI not only spoke, they acted, they were willing to pay $ 251 million for lithium. When they could have paid one-quarter of that and bought Axion.

    If Axion PbC is a " lead-acid solution" to the Micro Hybrid solutions, why would JCI say a non lead-acid solution is necessary and attempt to buy a lithium solution ? The PbC would fit perfectly in their product line.

    If JCI thought there was any chance of Axion PbC being competitive for Micro Hybrid or being what they needed, why wouldn't JCI place a 60 million dollar bid for Axion, or why wouldn't JCI and NEC get together and approach Axion. Or at least invest 20 million into Axion. They will pay $ 251 million for AONE but not invest $ 20 million in Axion ?

    If this author did in fact make the investment claimed, the author is down possibly as much as 80 or 90 % in the investment. He has lost and stands to lose considerable sums of money.

    I understand Axion, that while Axion did a fundraising in February 2012, it is now back to the well. I understand it has recently published in it's most recent 10 Q that it is looking for money, will be out of money by the end of 1 Q 2013. I expect another 30 - 40 million shares to enter the market to simply raise enough money to get by one more year.

    Additionally I understand the Axion battery runs on a different voltage system (you cannot take out a conventional lead or AGM and put in a PbC, to do so you would have to change the voltage system). So there appear costs to doing so that the author does not seem to mention.
    Dec 26, 2012. 03:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 189: Dec. 20: Latest News [View instapost]
    " Yes , if I add whiskey to a beer it makes the beer stronger .
    But when I add an extra straw in the glass, for my friend to share I still get less alcohol than before. "

    now add 100 million straws since 2009.

    Now you get it.
    Dec 25, 2012. 01:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 189: Dec. 20: Latest News [View instapost]
    John, I see now you are trying to incorporate my posts.

    I hope you Keep reading and learning, and hopefully some day you may understand. I applaud your efforts here to mimic me or the risks I presented.

    50 / 50 at best ?

    You do know you may have better odds going to a casino ?
    Dec 25, 2012. 01:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 189: Dec. 20: Latest News [View instapost]
    iindellco, on the change in the line,

    I think we both know this is nothing that would commonly be done in an hour, or as a regulary scheduled practice, and would not commonly be planned for.

    the claim is therefore an exxageration, that was the point of my post.

    I believe we both know, no one designs a line to do so, and no one willingly accepts the call to do so, and likely no one would do so, except in a very peculiar or unique circumstance.. I doubt the line could handle it in an hour, I know you do too.

    no one wants a bad battery to go out,

    I know you agree. its a bit silly to propose.
    Dec 25, 2012. 01:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 190: Dec. 23: Latest News [View instapost]
    Thanks, I appreciate what you have done and the information you offer, appreciate hearing if anything comes of Norfolk Southern call.

    I never put much hope in epower, if they put together 10 trucks next year I think that would be great. Not picking on the epower company, just saying it seems to be a few independent contractors agreeing to do testing or experiment on their own. I hope for revenue, but see no profit here, nothing that would come close to thwarting additional financing and dilution.

    Your report on Exide confirmed my thoughts as well " the technology works great in specific applications, it does take and give a charge quickly" I think we all agree to that

    but... " I got the sense that it had been some time since they had thought of Axion. "

    I had that same thought. JCI, Exide, the US Military,Norfolk Southern, they know the performance. JCI, Exide, US Military none have made a move for Axion, Exide and US Military have walked away from Axion, and now the delay at Norfolk where an April order was reported but no requested delivery; are they just not all that interested. Both Exide and US Miltary have tested or worked with Axion for at least some point of time. The concern over the Norfolk Southern order grows daily.

    The concern is that it appears it is a very interesting battery, but whether it is a specific energy fail, or perhaps an inability to produce at scale, perhaps it is vulnerable to vibration, whatever it is, I am concerned that interest wanes.
    Dec 24, 2012. 12:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 189: Dec. 20: Latest News [View instapost]
    I thought so too, no commercial production, 0 market share, 0 regulatory issues.
    Dec 24, 2012. 12:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 189: Dec. 20: Latest News [View instapost]
    iindellco I thought I have answered your question at least twice. one poster froggey complains I post it 4 times and that is too much, you say I don't answer it and I post too little.

    based on the Bob Avril Axion statement and the BMW investor presentation I think it fair to estimate someone could expect field testing to be complicated, someone should not get their hopes up for quick turnaround, and yes it may be anywhere in the range of 200 to 600 cars, probably 200 and a year or so as Bob Avril stated. You are entitled to your own opinion as I am to mine.

    Poster MAYA told you to
    "not becoming overly hopeful that Axion will bring in huge PbC orders anytime soon, from the auto industry. "...
    " about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so."

    If you have a problem with the quote, MAYA is the one to ask, not me.
    Dec 23, 2012. 02:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 189: Dec. 20: Latest News [View instapost]
    froggey, I posted it 4 times because you call it nonsense
    and I call it Axion speaking through their own representative. I can't believe anyone would call Bob Avril statement to the investors nonsense.

    The BMW investor report I gave a link to was only put in to show how complicated it can get. I never said they would require 600 vehicles in worldwide markets, but I do believe you should believe what Bob Avril told you, expect 200 vehicles and a year or so. A few months seems foolish to believe.

    They told you not to become overly hopeful, they told you it may be a year or so, 200 vehicles, and you know Fleet testing has not even started or at least MAYA told you this:

    ""Bob Avril, one of Axion's board members, took hold of the Q&A at the Investors' Conference with his speak to investors of not becoming overly hopeful that Axion will bring in huge PbC orders anytime soon, from the auto industry.

    For instance, he spoke of how BMW will have to do
    more research and due dilligence with possibly about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so."

    " about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so."

    If you do not appreciate that reminder then so be it.
    If that is your opinion of cluttering the board with nonsense
    well I guess your entitled to your opinion just as I am entitled to my opinion.

    I am not looking for a fight with anyone. I am looking for reasonable discussion. I think posters should be able to express their opinion without being attacked. Seems to me that insurancedude is the perfect example, the intent here seems to be to insult and chase away anyone with a question. Well that is what seems to be happening anyway.
    Dec 23, 2012. 02:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 189: Dec. 20: Latest News [View instapost]
    John Petersen "Nobody is attacking you"

    John you know among the insults I have put up with for no apparent reason are John you yourself said, and I quote:

    "Since its obvious that you don't understand the first thing about how batteries" "your questioning over techno-trivia " a "troll"
    "I'm not entirely clear who is paying you to distort facts and argue absurdities the way you do." a "concerned naive neophyte "

    Thats just a few, I witnessed the same occur with poster insurancedude.

    You said they should and you referred to him as " vaporize the scoundrels " you called him a " troll" a "bully" and a "bozo"
    " bully? Tolerate whatever you want but I'm done with this bozo."

    You are the only one using these words. You are constantly on the attack, at least that is what I see, but I imagine all the others see that too.

    You claim now that you want to rely on a 2007 document you read and you direct me to that 2007 document

    despite the fact Bob Avril of Axion Board of Directors specifically addressed it and your friend MAYA posted it . " about 200 cars using Axion batteries for a "real usage" stretch of time, perhaps a year, or so.". And you replied that same date that Maya posted it, so you ignore Axion and Avril and MAYA and the posts you yourself made, and go back to 2007 to justify your comment.

    I don't buy it. Others may, I don't. I saw you all chase away insurancedude, I feel the same was attempted on me. One question, why ? I can only believe you don't want anyone here questioning you.

    Bob Avril and Axion spoke. I politely provided the quote and politely reminded you of the quote. Instead of you saying, oh, I forgot about that, you say well look at 2007. I don't buy it.
    Dec 23, 2012. 01:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 189: Dec. 20: Latest News [View instapost]
    John you now claim " ...buying Axion would be a big risk for any battery manufacturer. If that battery manufacturer were a JCI for example, it might also have some nasty anti-trust implications. "

    What anti-trust implications exist for JCI if they were to buy a 30 million market cap Axion Battery company; a company with no commercial production of a battery. While apparently no anti-trust implications exist for JCI to buy AONE assets for 251 million, a company with commercial production ?

    Please explain the anti-trust implications.

    I see none likely. Considering JCI placed a bid for AONE assets and no one has mentioned the word "anti-trust" when it comes to JCI and AONE, (I have never seen it raised) why would you believe anti-trust would get in the way when buying Axion, a company with no commercial production ?

    Frankly I was hoping a buyout was one of Axions great hopes. If they fail to get funding now, what is left ? Candidly, Axion has about a 30 million market cap and is looking probably for another 10 million dollars in financing, having just received in February 2012 8.6 in financing. And that 10 million in financing won't pay the (didn't you estimate) 50 million dollars needed to upgrade the manufacturing line if they did get an order.

    A buy out was one of the only hopes I held for this company, or a significant investment by say, a JCI. Why do you say there are nasty anti-trust provisions ?
    Dec 23, 2012. 01:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment