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chuck215

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  • Natural Gas, Natural Gas, Natural Gas [View article]
    I defer to EOG on this topic, as they have plenty of gas-containing land they could develop.

    At almost every quarterly earnings call over the past couple of years (including last week) they reiterated their position that there is a lot of land under development for gas production, with more land that could come into play if the price of gas rises. So, the price of gas is capped for a long time.

    Thanks, Chuck
    Aug 11 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Year To Forget For The Oracle [View article]
    Wasted 60 seconds of my life reading this article
    Aug 6 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day I Held Everything [View article]
    Eli, a nice article.

    I could certainly understand the psychological mindset that led the person to sell all of his holdings last week. There has been a lot of trauma in the market over the past 6 years, and the extent of psychological scars differs from person-to-person. (I had one of those sell everything moments in fall of 2012, when the European crisis reached a peak. I learned a hard lesson there, as I missed out on a big rally at the end of that year.)

    I have to wonder if the constant drumbeat of "stocks are about to crash" over the past 2 years is part of the aftershock from the trauma of 2008-2009. By my analyses, a lot of great stocks are fairly priced at this time -- all of which will be substantially higher two years from now, even if there's a short-term decline.

    And, the overstimulation by our news media these days isn't helping investors. Very little information on CNBC is actually of real value to an investor. Most of this information just increases the tendency of all of us to act in order to relieve tension.

    Thanks, Chuck
    Jul 30 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • WABCO: High Quality Enterprise, But Is The Price Right? [View article]
    Disclaimer: As stated above, I own WBC.

    I take a different view of whether or not WBC is at fair value now, or is still a bargain.

    EPS growth rate over the past 5 years = 30%
    Consensus projected 5-year growth rate by analysts = 20%
    2014, 2015, and 2016 EPS grow rate increases are estimated at 14%, 21%, and 19%, respectively.

    Quarterly estimates over the last 12 quarters: Exceeded (8); Met (3); Missed (1)

    annual rate of increase in cash flow (2009-2013) = 71%
    annual rate of increase in TBV (2009 to 2013) = 40%
    Excellent cash management, as indicated in the article above.

    Current forward PEG for the next year (based on current analyst quarterly estimates and a more conservative 18% 5-year EPS growth rate) is 0.96.

    And, a very strong, worldwide competitive position in a growing area of the market. Current market cap = $6.2Billion

    The company price has been held back by its European location (Belgium), with about 60% of its business from Europe. However, its business is growing very strongly in the developing world, where there is an unstandable trend toward safer vehicles.

    To me, this stock is still about 20% undervalued.

    But, each of us should review the data and come to our own conclusions.

    Thanks, Chuck

    Jul 20 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WABCO: High Quality Enterprise, But Is The Price Right? [View article]
    Brian,

    I've been a WBC shareholder for 3 years. I agree with all you've said about the company's excellent position in its industry.

    I would recommend any potential shareholder to listen to their quarterly earnings conference call. In these calls, the CEO is exceptionally clear about how the company has performed (relative to the industry as a whole) in each worldwide geographic area.

    In most regions of the world they are regularly beating the competition due to the positioning of their products for both increased safety and performance. In the developing world, there will be a logical move toward the safer braking systems provided by WBC.

    For me personally, this company helps to diversify my portfolio -- that is, as a European mid-cap stock which serves a worldwide market with a product in high demand.

    Thanks, Chuck
    Jul 18 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting's Buy Shows How The Bakken Is Changing [View article]
    I agree with Bill Costello and ChuckXXX.

    Perhaps KOG was in a box, and had no choice but to sell out. Their land holdings in the Bakken included some good drilling locations in the oil-rich area, but much land outside the oil-rich area -- i.e., compare the KOG land holdings vs. the map of the oil-rich area in the EOG monthly presentation.

    KOG also had heavy debt, so perhaps they would not be a in a position to buy additional oil-rich sites in the Bakken or elsewhere. They missed five quarterly earings estimates in a row, with 3 misses by more than 20%.

    Was the sale a consequence of: 1) the expense of their well completion costs, 2) combined with interest on their debt, 3) combined with a limited number of premier drilling sites (perhaps a 3-4 year inventory), 4) combined with limited ability to borrow more to buy more drilling sites.

    Did the combination of these factors suggest to KOG management that their future was not bright as an independent company?

    Disclosure: I am long EOG and OAS.
    Jul 16 03:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting gets an amazing deal for Kodiak - too good to be true? [View news story]
    I agree with Phillips comment. Five quarterly misses in a row, with 3 misses of more than 20%. Others have commented on SA that a 6th consecutive loss in the 2nd quarter would probably hurt the stock price badly. WLL would have been aware of the 2nd quarter situation as part of its due diligence, so perhaps an impending miss contributed to the willingness of KOG to sell.

    An additional consideration: The EOG monthly presentation on its website now includes a mapping of the oil-rich areas of the Bakken. A comparison of KOG acreage against this this map shows a disappointing percentage outside this prime region. So, perhaps the bargain price just represent the true status of the KOG acreage.

    Bottom line: I doubt that WLL got a bargain. A more probable explanation of the price is that this is what the KOG acreage is really worth.

    Disclosure: I am log EOG and OAS
    Jul 14 05:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting gets an amazing deal for Kodiak - too good to be true? [View news story]
    I agree with Phillip's comments. Five quarterly misses in a row, with 3 misses of more than 20%. Raising questions about the competency of the KOG management team. A big miss for the 2nd quarter would probably have resulted in a big drop in the stock price. So, perhaps the "bargain sails price" was related to this upcoming reality.


    Also, EOG now has a map of the oil-rich sections of the Bakken as part of the standard "presentation" on its website. Comparing the KOG acreage (from their monthly presentation) and the EOG map leads to the conclusion that much of the KOG acreage is outside of the oil-rich area of the Bakken. I wonder if part of the reason for the sale and the "bargain" sales price is that the KOG acreage is less appealing than has generally been considered.


    Disclosure: I am long EOG and OAS.
    Jul 14 05:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New research links surge in Oklahoma earthquakes to drilling activity [View news story]
    It is wonderful to read insightful articles and comments on Seeking Alpha.

    And, politically-oriented comments could be useful if they are relevant to specific investing decisions.

    But, political rants detract significantly from SA.
    Jul 5 03:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Kodiak A Solid Long-Term Investment? [View article]
    Bill,

    It is also a bit unsettling for me to be investing in stocks that have such a large percentage of short interest. I notice that OAS and KOG both had about 10% short interest at last count, while CLR was at 20% short interest for the stock in circulation.

    Chuck
    Jun 19 07:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Kodiak A Solid Long-Term Investment? [View article]
    Bill,
    I'm an individual investor, working in the pharmaceutical industry, and managing my own portfolio. So, I appreciate your feedback. I probably misinterpreted some information in my comment that KOG acreage isn't as good as OAS. I looked at the proximity of OAS acreage to CLR acreage and assumed it must be pretty good. And, I heard that KOG experienced some of its Q1/2014 problems because of drilling on poor acreage. I guess I'm just down on KOG and probably was looking for an additional rationale for moving out of that position.

    Thanks again for the insight in your article and for your additional thoughts.

    Chuck
    Jun 19 06:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rosetta Resources And Oasis Petroleum Are 2 Growth Explorers And Producers With Bright Futures [View article]
    David,

    Thank you for this excellent analysis.

    You mention a bit of concern about the debt level of OAS. (This has been my primary concern for this company.) How deep is your concern? Do you think the increasing price of oil will eliminate this concern?

    Disclosure: I am long OAS, CLR and EOG.

    Thanks, Chuck
    Jun 19 08:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Kodiak A Solid Long-Term Investment? [View article]
    There are many comments pro and con for KOG in another recent article.

    It is hard for me personally to be enthusiastic about a stock that has "missed" analyst estimates in 5 consecutive quarters, including 3 misses of more than 20%. This includes 20%+ misses in both Q1/2013, Q4/2013, and Q1/2014.

    So, I sold my KOG shares after their Q12014 report and distributed the funds to my other shale plays -- EOG, CLR, and OAS.

    For me personally, it is hard to be enthusiastic about KOG when there is another stock of the same cap size and growth potential (OAS) which has better assets than KOG and does not have a history of poor performance relative to expectations.

    KOG's poor execution makes me personally wonder if there have been carrying too much debt, and were having cash flow issues.

    Having said all that, the price of oil has risen with the problems in the middle east. With that tailwind, KOG may be just fine. But, based on recent history, other shale plays may be better.
    Jun 18 07:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway Is A 'Cult' Stock; Does It Also Serve As A Market 'Tell'? [View article]
    Very thoughtful article. A fresh perspective.

    Thank you.

    Chuck
    Jun 18 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning Signs For Kodiak Oil And Gas [View article]
    Friday, 6Jun

    An interesting article on Motley Fool about the problems of KOG:

    http://bit.ly/1j81SOg
    Jun 6 09:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
63 Comments
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