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  • GM's Ignition Vs. Tesla's Titanium And 'Befuddling' Peak Deliveries [View article]

    First you need to note that the costed the Model S is still $80k+. The price of the Audi does not make the Model S any cheaper in absolute terms. Therefore, there is always the choice of not buying either.

    Further, there are cheaper EVs for sale, so the sales level for the Model S is very impressive next to a far cheaper Nissan Leaf.
    Apr 9 10:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Ignition Vs. Tesla's Titanium And 'Befuddling' Peak Deliveries [View article]
    Mr. French Battery Specialist, it seems that your familiarity with the Tesla Model S is far worse than it should be for someone trying to speak with authority on the subject.

    Care to share a superior chemistry in specific energy or volumetric energy than the NCA cells that Tesla is using? Something that also has the cycle life and while exposed to the same level of charge and discharge levels? Something that can be bought for less than $250 per kWH? We will see if you really are a battery expert.

    You might want to read up on any number of Tesla related documentation, including their battery pack temperature management before spouting off next time.
    Apr 9 10:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Ignition Vs. Tesla's Titanium And 'Befuddling' Peak Deliveries [View article]
    Nah, chipdoctor doesn't need crumple zones. He'd rather absorb more of the impact himself. Never mind that the chassis design to mount an engine is far worst for designing crumple zones than the hexagonal supports designed in the Model S for front end impact. Plus, actual NHTSA crash data doesn't apply because chipdoctor would rather kiss the engine in his lap.

    Chipdoctor, care to share NCA battery life cycle information with us?
    Apr 9 10:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silence On Gigafactory Partnerships Suggest Tesla Might Be A Near-Term Short [View article]
    Cpalmerlee, you do realize that it is the same LA Times article, right? The one that you swallowed hook line and sinker.
    Apr 9 09:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kill The Microsoft Surface Tablet [View article]
    The issue is that the Surface Pro is a terrible compromise. The iPad Air is not intended to replace your laptop. The big divorce is in the design of the software. You can see this issue with Surface running ARM. There's comparably so little software built for touch in the Windows 8 ecosystem and so you're really talking about running Surface Pro as a laptop.

    Therefore the Surface Pro 2 is too big, too heavy, too cumbersome in both hardware and software as a tablet. As a laptop, it's too small and too slow.
    Apr 9 03:31 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    Bailout, be truthful at least. You don't actually care about the environmental aspect as long as you make a profit on the downside of Tesla. Otherwise, you would bother to do the math and realize the folly of your argument. Especially using that Wall Street Journal article which is based on a widely discredited paper.
    Apr 9 08:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM's Ignition Vs. Tesla's Titanium And 'Befuddling' Peak Deliveries [View article]
    Mr. Dalal, this is nice work, especially the Prius sales graph and this nonsense about peaked deliveries and demand.

    If find it curious that some people elected to make bold cost predictions without even knowing the actual size, weight, and installation labor of the parts involved. Why rush out wild and inaccurate predictions?
    Apr 8 07:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Model S sales level off [View news story]
    Anyone seriously investing in Tesla sees the same data in forums. You have to be careful to know that you are seeing a subset of data and you have to be careful not to cherry pick.

    Do you have a name of the Tesla sales rep, or at least the gallery? I just spoke to a salesperson at the Montgomery Mall gallery just now and he said that the current quoted wait time is roughly 2-3 months. 2 weeks is possible, but on the optimistic side for an inventory vehicle (demo, cancelled order, etc.). Certainly production has increased and they are able to respond faster - after all, in 2012 they were still delivering cars for people that had waited years. In 2013, that was still going on at least in the first half of the year.

    So again... as a business, if Tesla is able to find buyers for each and every production slot (and we do not have any evidence to the contrary), then why should an investor particularly care about which exact geography is being fulfilled at the moment? Especially when the numbers are pretty robust in the areas of known strong demand and customer orders are increasing. Not only that, customer orders are increasing for a new product line. You see the logical progression of supercharger deployment, leasing programs, galleries, service centers, opening of new markets as all signs of weakness. That seems absurd. If you make the assumption that the company is confident about their outlook, then these exact same moves would be what a confident company would naturally perform.
    Apr 8 07:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    Except, of course, that somehow you still ended up very far from reality. Tesla currently charges $280/kWh for the upgrade from the 60 kWh pack to the 85 kWh pack. That includes sheet structures like cooling tubes and assembly of the sheets and gross margin. Therefore the cell costs are far lower than that.

    We've been around this several times, Mr. Petersen, and yet in the face of facts that directly contradict your story, you still do not incorporate the new information in your analysis.
    Apr 8 07:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    MarketLost, you are then at the mercy of the biases and limitations of the person providing you the summary. It wasn't really all that long.

    Most interesting in the peer review is that one of the reviewers works for Tesla and his bio is included:

    Kurt Kelty, Director, Battery Technology, Tesla Motors

    Kurt Kelty is the Director of Battery Technology at Tesla Motors.
    responsible for setting and implementing Tesla’s battery cell usage. He is particularly focused on evaluating the safety, performance and reliability of cells. His team then develops basic cell packaging concepts for modules to enable the safe and efficient packaging of the cells. Once the module and pack is designed, Mr. Kelty’s team validates the pack performance under extreme environmental conditions that might be observed in the vehicle application.
    Mr. Kelty is responsible for the technical exchanges and commercial negotiations with each of the battery cell suppliers. He also leads the battery pack recycling and regulatory efforts at Tesla. He is a member of SAE J2929 Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Propulsion Battery System Safety Standard to create abuse standards for vehicle battery packs.
    Mr. Kelty also leads the battery pack lifetime modeling and degradation efforts.
    Before joining Tesla, Mr. Kelty worked for Matsushita (Panasonic) for nearly fifteen years, seven of those years in Japan. At Panasonic, Mr. Kelty worked in various planning and marketing capacities related to Ni-MH and Li-ion batteries. During the last 5 years, he founded and led Panasonic’s battery research lab in Silicon Valley and created R&D alliances between Panasonic and other battery and fuel cell developers in the U.S.
    Apr 8 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    In the LADWP area, coal is scheduled to be phased out by 2030.

    For 2012, there was 20% renewables (biomass, geothermal, small hydro, and wind), 10% nuclear, and 4% hydro, and a relatively large 12% other. Again, electric vehicles charge at night and therefore will occupy sources like nuclear, hydro, and wind before sources like coal and natural gas. Those plants would be idling at that time. Total capacity is 7,300 megawatts. It would be quite a few EVs before even ~30% of the power generation on nuclear/renewables/large hydro is exhausted to require the ramping up of the coal and natural gas plants. That's over 100,000 Model S vehicles charging with dual chargers before that level is reached. Or roughly 300,000 Leafs.

    Of course, this is utility power - it is not count any residential power generation unless it goes into the other category.
    Apr 8 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    MRTTF, there are pictures from the NHTSA of the 60 kWh pack after the crash testing where they opened it up to see the sheets. There are also diagrams of the 85 kWh pack.
    Apr 8 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]

    In any case, we are speculating. We have no real visibility as to where Tesla is going to find the 30% reduction in price. A chunk of it might just be shipping costs similar to the price reduction that Nissan was able to achieve after building their battery plant in Tennessee. The logic, however, needs to follow through. The existing Panasonic Suminoe plant that is currently producing cells for Tesla was supposed to cost $1.31 billion dollars but includes the cost of the 2nd phase for a total capacity of roughly 300 million units per year.

    Therefore, the Tesla can definitely create a substantial battery factory with $2 billion dollars with no additional investment dollars. My issue with fgrindle's statement is that he implies that the battery factory is fictitious since Tesla "only" raised $2 billion for it so far.
    Apr 8 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Tesla's Gigafactory Becoming A Gigafarce? [View article]
    MRTTF, While it may be typical in the 20-40% range, it is not typical to have a 60 kWh or 85 kWh battery pack. In this case, the cost of creating the additional sheets with the cooling ducts, labor, and the like is already included in the upgrade cost. The additional pack structures are not all that expensive for Tesla to make given the overall cost of the pack.
    Apr 8 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Model S sales level off [View news story]

    Again we reach an impasse where there is too little data and you chose to speculate. That's fine, as long as we are clear where the data ends and where the speculation begins.

    1) We have little actual information on lead times.
    2) The only way to get cars fulfilled within 2 weeks is to have purchased a demo car or picked up on someone else's cancelled order. It is rare event.
    3) Again, too little data. Some orders were also delayed.
    4) There was an increase in production quarter over quarter to the level of 15-20%. So a flat order book quarter over quarter actually means an increase of 15-20% due to the increase in deliveries. Again, our visibility is global and any regional analysis is likely fruitless. Further, it is likely that the customer reservation level has increased for Model S. And somehow you are also painting the fact that Tesla has such a robust demand for the Model X as a negative.

    The price cut is actually part of the corporate pricing policy that was drawn up as part of China pricing. The fact that you see it as a negative is your prerogative, but you should understand that their "respectful" pricing policy can be viewed as a strength of the company going forward. Matter of fact, Mr. Jerome Gillian of Tesla Motors recently reiterated their pricing strategy to Australian buyers which is consistent with the re-balance of Tesla European pricing. Again, a sign that the company is developing policies and strategies for the long haul.

    We do not have enough information to really understand Tesla's demand, and the concept of demand is something worthy of conversation. However, it is not a short term trading issue and certainly doesn't fit a bear thesis. It is almost too difficult to discern demand issues as of yet that isn't something that Tesla is already directly addressing. Efforts like opening more galleries and service centers as well as deploying Superchargers are essentially efforts to drive demand. We just won't see those effects for some time. It is likely that both New England and Georgia will receive substantial upgrades with Superchargers soon and so that should affect demand. But we have so little data - and the data we do have does not point to a drop in demand.
    Apr 8 04:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment