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  • Tesla Entering The Doldrums [View article]

    If that is the strength of your reasoning that the ~$2 billion capital raise was not for the Gigafactory, then good luck to you in your investments. You'll need it.
    Sep 30 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Entering The Doldrums [View article]

    It behooves you to re-examine last quarter's Tesla conference call:

    I am assuming you were already familiar with the information in the call and you just merely forgot. Specifically look at the question from Ryan Brinkman of JPMorgan.

    As for the convertible offering, here is Tesla's official words on it:

    "Tesla intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to accelerate the growth of its business in the U.S. and internationally, for the development and production of its “Gen III” mass market vehicle, the development of the Tesla Gigafactory and other general corporate purposes."

    Development of the Gigafactory is specifically mentioned, as opposed to your connotation that it is going only to general corporate purposes. Further, the Gigafactory is an ongoing project with multiple phases. The later phases through 2020 can be partially funded by Model 3 sales in earlier years.
    Sep 30 02:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric Vehicles Are The Future And Tesla Is At The Forefront [View article]
    bailout, there are multiple articles reporting the Goldman Sachs rating. That particular one you chose less descriptive - there are many better descriptions.

    This one has far more details:

    In Archambault's projections, the lowest end "Tesla as a Maytag Repairman" scenario has 1.8 million unit sales by 2025. That one is the one he says Tesla needs $6 billion in capital to accomplish that scenario. What you aren't getting though, is the corresponding share price $976 with a present value of $324.

    Of course, one can quibble with his particular scenario details... but you are missing the context of the report.

    Since his disruptive scenarios basically discuss post Model 3 launch scenarios, the major capital requirements are beyond Model 3 launch - which is the period roughly 2018-2025. I chose 2020 as the target, but that's basically plus or minus 2 years.

    I'm not agreeing with his capital raise requirements, I'm just saying that you need to understand the context of what he is saying.
    Sep 30 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric Vehicles Are The Future And Tesla Is At The Forefront [View article]
    Blue Sky & Sunshine,

    If you aren't using the Argonne National Labs GREET model as a starting point, then you're just doing some WAG'ing.

    Their data is used for and you can see results easily.
    For example:

    In New York City or Beverly Hills:
    Model S: 150 g/mile GHG
    Toyota Prius: 218 g/mile GHG
    Audi S7: 544 g/mile GHG

    They do use the annual figures for electricity production which does skew things a bit. For example, my nighttime electricity is mostly nuclear as with much of the northeast. In the northwest, it's pretty much all hydro or wind.
    Sep 30 10:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Electric Vehicles Are The Future And Tesla Is At The Forefront [View article]
    Each one of those CHAdeMO charging stations is a waste of money. None of them are greater than 60kW, most are 25 - 50 kW. A current generation Leaf can only charge at 44KW. A dual charger equipped Tesla can charge at the basically same rate on a L2 charger as many CHAdeMO installs (20-25 kW). To support long distance travel of BEVs, DCFC Level 3 is 100kW+. There are very few CHAdeMO or CCS installs with 100kW+ (probably less than 10). The manner of counting is different also - the CHAdeMO EVSE's count is per plug while the Tesla count is per location. There are over 1000 Tesla Supercharger plugs with 100kW+ capability versus less than 10 for CHAdeMO/CCS. (Kia's headquarters has two).

    Further, Nissan's own CHAdeMO EVSE's suffer from outage due to poor thermal management design. Many of the installations have only a single plug, which means congestion or problems if they don't work. Tesla's design is for two plugs per Supercharger and usually at least two Superchargers at each location.

    One can almost always trust the Tesla Supercharger network, but it is hard to trust CHAdeMO today.

    Further, the placement of CHAdeMO is usually to support urban travel which is mostly redundant with L2 charging networks. In Europe, Model S's can usually charge at the same locations, just slower. In Japan, Tesla has shipped their CHAdeMO adapter and so we will see how it fares. Presumably that means that Tesla owners can buy the CHAdeMO adapter for Europe sooner rather than later. In the U.S., there is far lower demand for the CHAdeMO adapter since the CHAdeMO network is far less useful in the U.S.

    Your discussion of the Goldman Sachs report is incorrect. They did not say the minimum is $6 billion. Just that to support an even faster expansion, especially beyond 2020, Tesla could use another $6 billion.

    Chinese EV's are terrible. There are plenty of EV and ICE cars sold in China at ridiculously low prices, but that doesn't mean that Americans or Europeans would be willing to buy those cars. It does matter what you get for those prices.
    Sep 30 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Entering The Doldrums [View article]
    The current assembly line does not run 24/7.
    Sep 30 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Entering The Doldrums [View article]
    Tesla has already raised the money they need to raise for the Gigafactory.

    The current rate of car buyers opting for the Supercharger option is sufficient to cover the current rate of Supercharger expansion.

    The Model X factory expansion has already happened - most of that money was already spent (remember the tax breaks that CA gave them for new plant expansion last year?).
    Sep 30 09:57 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla adds driver-assistance features; Mobileye a possible supplier [View news story]
    People already ordered their cars knowing that their cars did not have the active safety features. We've already gone through several iterations of new features - parking sensors and folding side mirrors for example. This isn't a new phenomenon.

    The only difference is that Tesla is willing to roll in new features without waiting for a model year changeover. This year they've already changed things like incorporating a higher resolution dash display, altered the dashboard bezel, added black Alcantara headliner option, added alcantara upper dash trim, and so forth.

    Since their business model is fundamentally different than most automakers, instead of dealing with new model changeover with a large amount of existing inventory, the vast majority of Tesla's finished goods inventory is already spoken for and the sell through effect is very different than with other manufacturers during a year end transition. As a result, Tesla can iterate at a faster pace while keeping the Osborne effect to a minimum.
    Sep 30 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla adds driver-assistance features; Mobileye a possible supplier [View news story]
    There is a Mobileye product available as an aftermarket accessory - that is what detlefo is talking about. Presumably whatever Tesla is adding to new cars incorporates Mobileye technology but it is likely not just Mobileye. So far, Tesla has indicated that Tesla's new drivers assistance package is not retrofittable to older cars. It has at least a new wiring harness, new steering wheel, new windshield with sensor package, new lower grill with radar, and new placement of parking sensors. Presumably the cost of retrofit is likely not worth it - it would be better to sell the old car and buy a new one given the labor costs of retrofit.

    We have already gone through many upgrades... folding side mirrors, parking sensors, and so forth. The current state of the driver assistance packages are not necessarily worth it anyways to most drivers. It seems that automatic cruise control is a likely software upgrade given the sensor package. Not clear that automatic parallel parking is possible with this particular sensor package.

    In any case, it is likely that the Model X will ship with some level of driver assistance technologies that up until now were considered missing on Tesla vehicles.
    Sep 30 09:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reservations strong for Model S cars in China [View news story]
    Further clarification - originally the announcement was for all EVs, but as with many things in China, there are a few bends. So Musk's comment during the conference call was true as far as he knew, but Tesla was left off the "first preferential list". Source:

    Apparently they have some adjustments and testing left.
    Sep 26 07:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Bunge And Solazyme Just Enter A New Age Of Sugar Production? [View article]
    I believe in a strong future for Solazyme, however, this current swoon is very painful. Any concrete ideas as so why so much pessimism just as a significant increase in production coming online? There has to be more than just the capital raise. Why the increase in short interest?
    Sep 26 10:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple roundup: Bendgate, iOS 8.01, iPhone 6 mix, Mac sales [View news story]
    temperest, have you ever worked for Apple? Have you ever worked as an engineer for Apple? I suspect not.
    Sep 24 08:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lower-Spec Apple iPhone 6 Can Outperform Other Phones [View article]
    Apple is an ARM architecture licensee and they use that license to make their own ARM implementations starting with the A6:

    Here's an overview:

    No one is saying that there isn't credit to ARM engineers that made the ARMv8 instruction set and reference implementations. However, Apple's A8 is definitely not a reference implementation.
    Sep 24 07:39 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reservations strong for Model S cars in China [View news story]

    From the article: "On 9 July, the China State Council announced that the government will waive the purchase tax for electric vehicles (EV’s and PHEV’s), including imported “New Energy Vehicles” such as Tesla’s Model S. Since the auto purchase tax rate is equivalent to 10% of a car's price (excluding the 17% value-added tax), this represents a significant additional stimulus for Tesla demand in the world’s largest Auto market."

    This sales tax exemption started Sept 1.

    The earnings call was August 1, a month earlier. Mr. Lavallo of Merrill Lynch asks, "...It just seems that the Chinese government is doing just about everything in their power to kind of favor the domestic OEs, I mean whether it's the 10% purchase tax avoidance that won't apply to imports, the charging station standards that at this point don't seem to be compatible with Tesla's technology."

    He is obviously referring to the July 9th announcement of the 10% sales tax exemption. He is wrong. Mr. Musk replies, "And actually for the sales tax exemption, it does actually apply to non-Chinese cars." Mr. Musk is correct.

    Mr. Archambault wrote, "Right now Tesla does not get the subsidies for EVs that are offered to some of the locally built makers like BYD." That is true. There are additional subsidies that Tesla currently doesn't get. No where does he say that Tesla does not get the 10% sales tax exemption.
    Sep 24 06:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reservations strong for Model S cars in China [View news story]
    You people seriously have to play this out over time. Have you all never done actual financial projects or budgeting? Never done your own fact checking? Try looking into the actual process and exactly when that second deposit is required. You'll find that your cursory calculations are very far off the mark.
    Sep 24 11:22 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment