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bullbear1
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Individual investor with a Top down approach. I don't believe in diversification. Spreading your chips across the table is senseless to me, when based on good old economic fundamentals only certain areas of the market are poised to benefit in certain stages of the economic cycle.
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  • Mr. Kass... Genius ... I think not
    So here's my insight on the current market situation(s).

    -The Kass Scenario-

    On July 6th, Mr. Kass a renowned perma bear, calls the market bottom. And says S&P should rally to 1100 within two weeks.
    That is exactly what happened. What does this guy know that we don't?

    Answer: Everything, he is a true industry insider.

    Second, I checked with HARRY POTTER today and he is still in possession of his crystal ball, he has not let it out of his sight, and he has not anyone use it in the past millennium.

    So that must mean that Mr. Kass is indeed a genius, right? No, not at all, it could just mean that he has a lot of clout on wall street and his buddies are helping him manipulate the market. Think about it, his market bottom call by itself caused some shorts to go cover. Don't ever underestimate the power of a headline.

    Or third, maybe the guy is just observant. Perhaps he noticed that the new quarter for financial institutions was starting, and that by default buying in the market would start happening. Perhaps he noticed that this buying even it may not be strong or heavy buying, would be at least enough buying activity to make it harder for the shorts to knock the market down anymore and the shorts which have been enjoying an easy ride down, would start buying to cover on any signs of life in the market.

    He is no genius.

    -The Volume situation-

    Low volume signals weakness in this recent move up. In my opinion this is just a small rally in a overall declining market. Look at most money flow indicators, Since August 6th of 2009 as the market went higher, most money flow indicators have had a steep decline. As a matter of fact the last time the DJIA was in the 10200 - 10400 price range around 6/3/2010, the Chaikin Money flow indicator was substantially higher than it is today.

    No to mention S&P 50 day moving proved to be heavy resistance today, as we closed just below it, and the DJIA ran into resistance at it's 200 day moving average today.

    Technically things are looking very weak right now, shorting the market at the end of the day today based on technical could prove to be a nice move.

    -I'm looking for selling on the news to resurface as a trend -

    The expectations of great profits is already baked into stocks, Look at what AA did today, it traded mostly flat today, up a measly .12 cents. That's pretty weak price performance considering all the shorts that covered today on the decent quarterly.  And CSX sold off today on their good quarterly report.

    For trades if this trend become more perdominate, I would be looking to short companies on the day of their earnings for a quick trade, as most companies announce earnings in afterhours I would short them at the end of the regular trading day right before the after hours earnings report comes out.


    Disclosure: none
    Jul 14 11:45 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Possible Fix for Gulf Oil well

    Plug it up with a tampon. Seriously make a huge tampon, shove it in the pipe, remove the applicator, tampon expands in the well clogs it up, and problem solved. Plus the applicator keeps the tampon from absorbing the gulf water and expanding before its in the well, and the applicator would also provide protection from the ice crystals that form.

    And make sure TAMPAX manufactures this enormous tampon, because they have those pearl tampons that "expand a full 360 degrees".

    Just some food for thought.

    Sincerely,
    Bill

    Disclosure: No positions
    Tags: XLE, STO, BP, GS, AAPL, SPY, SPY, XLF, ERX, FST, ATPAQ, CLNE
    Jun 03 7:45 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Wall Street Article on Oil Futures is Dumbfounding.....
    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100513-714137.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesEurope

    That is a link to the article . Here is what I don't Get in the article...

    "Nationwide, U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are at their highest since December, and inventories at Cushing have risen for eight straight weeks, putting the amount of oil in storage at the hub at 29% above year-earlier levels."

    "It was just last week that crude oil hit an 18-month highs $87.15 a barrel. Since then concerns about the impact of Europe's debt woes on global growth and a broad aversion to risky assets have shaved more than $13 off futures prices."

    Seriously , what the heck.

    So this journalist is telling me that Crude inventories have been rising for the past 8 weeks and the market didn't care about rising inventories and kept bidding up the price of crude as it hit a high for the year last week. Now all of the sudden the market cares about rising crude oil inventories because of the EU situation??

    I'm a buyer of this dip in crude oil. The market hasn't cared about rising inventories for the past 8 weeks(and for all of 2009), and when this sell off is over the market will go right back to not caring about rising crude inventories and oil prices will rise again.

    Am I missing something here, short of the EU going into a double dip recession, EU demand for oil won't diminish that much in my opinion. I'm thinking the author of this article must have shorted oil recently and needs oil futures to go down more.

    I'd like to thank him for giving me good oil stocks on the cheap, that are sure to benefit from recovering USA consumption and increases in China and emerging markets consumption.

    Maybe I'm missing the point of his article.

    What the heck???

    Check here for more our blogs and list of our oil stocks to watch-list on our discout-watchlist page.

    May 17 5:11 AM | Link | Comment!
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