Dr. No's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/63159/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/156442-funds-flow-priming-markets-for-another-fall?source=feed#comment-633086 633086 Mon, 17 Aug 2009 11:47:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155738-90-a-barrel-oil-is-the-floor-for-cellulosic-ethanol-says-study?source=feed#comment-628572 628572 Thu, 13 Aug 2009 14:13:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155738-90-a-barrel-oil-is-the-floor-for-cellulosic-ethanol-says-study?source=feed#comment-628571 628571 Thu, 13 Aug 2009 14:12:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/155593-not-all-commodity-etfs-are-created-equal?source=feed#comment-626958 626958 Wed, 12 Aug 2009 13:47:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89703-wind-s-our-future-but-natural-gas-is-now?source=feed#comment-226083 226083 Electricity however has several input choices some renewable, NG is limited. Wind is now, NG in the future and only temporary for 100 years. Of course Picken's doesn't care what happens in 30 years or thereafter. He is dead then. As goes the President.]]> Fri, 08 Aug 2008 11:39:52 -0400 Electricity however has several input choices some renewable, NG is limited. Wind is now, NG in the future and only temporary for 100 years. Of course Picken's doesn't care what happens in 30 years or thereafter. He is dead then. As goes the President.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89149-oil-gas-electric-cars-the-market-and-the-economy?source=feed#comment-224086 224086
tyklakewalker: Last time I checked sugar cane gorws only in Florida, Louisiana and Hawaii domestically. We should replace middle east oil dependence with brazil ethanol dependence ??? Further: You make lemonade with lemons: The midwest agriculture grows what it can given the long and harsh winters and the hot and humid summers. It ain't Hawaii and it ain't California there. You need to look at land effeciency and corn is pretty darn good for that.]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 11:56:27 -0400
tyklakewalker: Last time I checked sugar cane gorws only in Florida, Louisiana and Hawaii domestically. We should replace middle east oil dependence with brazil ethanol dependence ??? Further: You make lemonade with lemons: The midwest agriculture grows what it can given the long and harsh winters and the hot and humid summers. It ain't Hawaii and it ain't California there. You need to look at land effeciency and corn is pretty darn good for that.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89185-oil-approaching-bear-market-territory?source=feed#comment-224077 224077 Wed, 06 Aug 2008 11:47:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83379-on-oil-and-its-manipulation?source=feed#comment-197281 197281
dan: all that is being asked is that you trade/speculate the same way AS IN equities, ie put up 50% margin and not 5-7%. Or even better gamble as in the casino, where the bank ALWAYS wins and you have to put up 100% of your chip value and not just 5-7%.]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 12:00:09 -0400
dan: all that is being asked is that you trade/speculate the same way AS IN equities, ie put up 50% margin and not 5-7%. Or even better gamble as in the casino, where the bank ALWAYS wins and you have to put up 100% of your chip value and not just 5-7%.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83468-we-can-lower-gas-prices-now-if-we-drill-drill-drill?source=feed#comment-197231 197231 Lemme go check at the gas station right a way....]]> Wed, 02 Jul 2008 11:19:22 -0400 Lemme go check at the gas station right a way....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82448-even-the-gas-crisis-needs-a-culprit?source=feed#comment-191767 191767 * Systems can be put into resonance mode which leads to catastrophic failure. So the Sanford Bernstein comment sounds intelligent but actuallty is wrong. You can have catalysts leading to catastrophic failure, think resonane, think nukes.
* The CFTC also admitted that they do neither have enough people nor the data to actually comment on the situation. In fact the very definition of the Enron loophole puts the CFTC out of monitoring ICE and DME, the prior being controlled by GS and MS, talking about fox in the henhouse...]]> Tue, 24 Jun 2008 11:01:56 -0400 * Systems can be put into resonance mode which leads to catastrophic failure. So the Sanford Bernstein comment sounds intelligent but actuallty is wrong. You can have catalysts leading to catastrophic failure, think resonane, think nukes.
* The CFTC also admitted that they do neither have enough people nor the data to actually comment on the situation. In fact the very definition of the Enron loophole puts the CFTC out of monitoring ICE and DME, the prior being controlled by GS and MS, talking about fox in the henhouse...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82448-even-the-gas-crisis-needs-a-culprit?source=feed#comment-191758 191758 Tue, 24 Jun 2008 10:55:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81394-speculation-and-the-price-of-oil?source=feed#comment-185943 185943
World assets under management increased by 50% since 2000, this money has to go some place and creates demand for new asset classes as old ones (stocks, bonds) are perceived as tainted. With GS & MS setting up commodity exchanges they kindly marketed those to their clients and demand for investable assets first created the CDO bubble and then the commodity and energy bubble.

If please someone would look at actual numbers of physical and financial/index speculators and their demand and supply, you would realize what is going on. You can overlay the dot.com, housing and CDO and commodity bubbles and will see the not so strange similarities.

That said, long-term, i.e. over the next 10-15 years we may see real issues covering the global demand. But if the increase in oil demand from China is roughly that of financial speculators trading on ICE/IPE/NYMEX etc., and as long as Morgan Stanley holds two entire annual wheat harvest, we are likely seeing other phenomena at play.]]> Sun, 15 Jun 2008 13:22:18 -0400
World assets under management increased by 50% since 2000, this money has to go some place and creates demand for new asset classes as old ones (stocks, bonds) are perceived as tainted. With GS & MS setting up commodity exchanges they kindly marketed those to their clients and demand for investable assets first created the CDO bubble and then the commodity and energy bubble.

If please someone would look at actual numbers of physical and financial/index speculators and their demand and supply, you would realize what is going on. You can overlay the dot.com, housing and CDO and commodity bubbles and will see the not so strange similarities.

That said, long-term, i.e. over the next 10-15 years we may see real issues covering the global demand. But if the increase in oil demand from China is roughly that of financial speculators trading on ICE/IPE/NYMEX etc., and as long as Morgan Stanley holds two entire annual wheat harvest, we are likely seeing other phenomena at play.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80692-oil-prices-and-the-bigger-fool-theory?source=feed#comment-183419 183419 The Gramm loophole and his wife being at the CFTC is quite amazing. Too bad that Spitzer got hooked. We should have Enron 2.0. Where are Sabanes and Oxley these days ??]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 12:02:59 -0400 The Gramm loophole and his wife being at the CFTC is quite amazing. Too bad that Spitzer got hooked. We should have Enron 2.0. Where are Sabanes and Oxley these days ??]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80874-how-oil-and-gas-prices-fare-in-dollar-vs-euro-terms?source=feed#comment-183407 183407 Wed, 11 Jun 2008 11:52:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80507-is-oil-a-bubble-part-3?source=feed#comment-181315 181315 That said, don't ignore the greenhouse gas issue along the issue of increasing demand in Chindia. The first requires us (and anybody else) to wean of oil no matter how the bubble now turns out, the second will reignite long-term price increase and we have to become more effecient and think about where we actually really need petrochemicals. Arguably not in transportation (spare air travel), however in the petro-CHEMICAL industry. Arguably also not in fertilizer production. For those there are holistically better solutions. The benefit of the oil price bubble is that it drives energy effecient behavior, maybe for the wrong reason, but the outcome is positive overall. Just going ahead with oil exploration will increase CO2 output and that is the last we need.
I would have hopped for some more careful data reporting and analysis here.

Re: Cooling: Are you absolutely sure it is less effecient to cool houses in summer in the South vs. heat houses in the winter in the North? Do the math! Living in the North only works since mankind invented the fire and created greenhouse gases to go with it. Before, manking lived in the warmer regions. Somehow civilization started there and not at the poles.]]> Sun, 08 Jun 2008 12:36:31 -0400 That said, don't ignore the greenhouse gas issue along the issue of increasing demand in Chindia. The first requires us (and anybody else) to wean of oil no matter how the bubble now turns out, the second will reignite long-term price increase and we have to become more effecient and think about where we actually really need petrochemicals. Arguably not in transportation (spare air travel), however in the petro-CHEMICAL industry. Arguably also not in fertilizer production. For those there are holistically better solutions. The benefit of the oil price bubble is that it drives energy effecient behavior, maybe for the wrong reason, but the outcome is positive overall. Just going ahead with oil exploration will increase CO2 output and that is the last we need.
I would have hopped for some more careful data reporting and analysis here.

Re: Cooling: Are you absolutely sure it is less effecient to cool houses in summer in the South vs. heat houses in the winter in the North? Do the math! Living in the North only works since mankind invented the fire and created greenhouse gases to go with it. Before, manking lived in the warmer regions. Somehow civilization started there and not at the poles.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79522-is-oil-a-bubble-part-two?source=feed#comment-177277 177277
To that end a myopic oil view isn't helpful. The latest commodity bubble being cotton contracts should make people wonder where all of the sudden the cotton demand is coming from. Why are farmers in the South not able to get contracts? Did all of a sudden a new fashion trend explode in going cotton pumping demand? Let me just make up a couple of urban legends:
* Cotton is in higher demand as more countries move out of poperty and desire higher value clothing with cotton.
* China and India has increased the average wardrobe size and now they need to fill it.
* The prolongation of the Iraq war has increased the demand for white tees by our forces.
* China is planning to build the largest Cotton shield for the olympics and that has dramatically added to cotton demand.
* As the polar caps melt, the increase in population in those regions will not wear fur but cotton to deal with the summer heat.

Anybody else wanna have a go ?
]]> Sat, 31 May 2008 12:19:27 -0400
To that end a myopic oil view isn't helpful. The latest commodity bubble being cotton contracts should make people wonder where all of the sudden the cotton demand is coming from. Why are farmers in the South not able to get contracts? Did all of a sudden a new fashion trend explode in going cotton pumping demand? Let me just make up a couple of urban legends:
* Cotton is in higher demand as more countries move out of poperty and desire higher value clothing with cotton.
* China and India has increased the average wardrobe size and now they need to fill it.
* The prolongation of the Iraq war has increased the demand for white tees by our forces.
* China is planning to build the largest Cotton shield for the olympics and that has dramatically added to cotton demand.
* As the polar caps melt, the increase in population in those regions will not wear fur but cotton to deal with the summer heat.

Anybody else wanna have a go ?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79332-why-is-oil-going-up?source=feed#comment-176727 176727
KL's assertions would work if there was no such thing as a commodities exchange and if we would have a straight physical market. We don't. In fact the physical market is between 10-25% of trades.]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 11:12:10 -0400
KL's assertions would work if there was no such thing as a commodities exchange and if we would have a straight physical market. We don't. In fact the physical market is between 10-25% of trades.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79015-why-did-crude-oil-spike-so-high?source=feed#comment-175562 175562 Wed, 28 May 2008 18:22:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78715-understanding-crude-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-173534 173534 In fact, since 2000 the global assets under management have increased by 50%, all looking for superior returns, all chasing the same opportunities creating demand without increases in the underlying assets, or did the world economy expand by 50% from 2000 to 2006?
The sad part is that once oil drops back to 50-70, corn to 2.00 alternative energy may not look that attractive anynmore, so the cleantech bubble will pop too.]]> Sun, 25 May 2008 11:49:42 -0400 In fact, since 2000 the global assets under management have increased by 50%, all looking for superior returns, all chasing the same opportunities creating demand without increases in the underlying assets, or did the world economy expand by 50% from 2000 to 2006?
The sad part is that once oil drops back to 50-70, corn to 2.00 alternative energy may not look that attractive anynmore, so the cleantech bubble will pop too.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69850-the-case-against-ethanol?source=feed#comment-131779 131779 Finally, America is the biggest consumer of everything: energy, food.

Make the connection fatzo: eat less - drive more!]]> Wed, 26 Mar 2008 10:56:45 -0400 Finally, America is the biggest consumer of everything: energy, food.

Make the connection fatzo: eat less - drive more!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/69163-pacific-ethanol-juicy-details-from-tuesday-s-10-k?source=feed#comment-129972 129972
Issues with covenants and automatic defaults are serious because they indicate cash management issues on the slope to chapter 7/11.

However:
Brtitishsteel is wrong with the connection between corn for fuel and food prices. Food prices go up because of higher beef demand (eats corn) and oil prices (needed for fertilizer and tractors).

BM1087 should less believe in PR hype and go for a treasure hunt to find one (1 only!) succesfully operating cellulosic or gasification/FT type ethanol plant, checkback when you found it and good luck!

Questioncorn needs to figure out where cane is grown (savannah) and where the rain forest is (equator, not savannah). More geography in school could help.

Those concerned with high food prices should eat less meat. 70% of corn goes into burgers the conversion is 1:8 and as 2/3 of Americans are overweight and 1/3 is obese maybe they could shed their weight pass the fat on for biodiesel and lower transportation cost due to lower weight. Then, as in the US we produce and stuff twice as much food into ourselves than what we need, we could also be healthier by eating less and making that less available for fuel. Problem solved: Eat less - its good for you and your tank!

That said, the financial conduct of PEIX isn't very promissing and not understanding commodity risk is the death knell for ethanol plays.]]> Fri, 21 Mar 2008 20:03:21 -0400
Issues with covenants and automatic defaults are serious because they indicate cash management issues on the slope to chapter 7/11.

However:
Brtitishsteel is wrong with the connection between corn for fuel and food prices. Food prices go up because of higher beef demand (eats corn) and oil prices (needed for fertilizer and tractors).

BM1087 should less believe in PR hype and go for a treasure hunt to find one (1 only!) succesfully operating cellulosic or gasification/FT type ethanol plant, checkback when you found it and good luck!

Questioncorn needs to figure out where cane is grown (savannah) and where the rain forest is (equator, not savannah). More geography in school could help.

Those concerned with high food prices should eat less meat. 70% of corn goes into burgers the conversion is 1:8 and as 2/3 of Americans are overweight and 1/3 is obese maybe they could shed their weight pass the fat on for biodiesel and lower transportation cost due to lower weight. Then, as in the US we produce and stuff twice as much food into ourselves than what we need, we could also be healthier by eating less and making that less available for fuel. Problem solved: Eat less - its good for you and your tank!

That said, the financial conduct of PEIX isn't very promissing and not understanding commodity risk is the death knell for ethanol plays.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/67363-ethanol-update-crush-spread-plunges-bush-expresses-concern?source=feed#comment-123094 123094 Because as you turn the wood into ethanol your land needs to be dealt with and you all of sudden created agriculture, which is exactly what the science papers were attacking.]]> Thu, 06 Mar 2008 13:53:07 -0500 Because as you turn the wood into ethanol your land needs to be dealt with and you all of sudden created agriculture, which is exactly what the science papers were attacking.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65880-bluefire-ethanol-fuels-converting-garbage-into-profits?source=feed#comment-119336 119336
The reason we do not have a better alternative to oil and ethanol from corn is that virtually all of the suggested process do not work economically and they do not work large scale.

Of course once the oil price goes higher, the economics change, we will then also accumulate experience what may work and what not. But let's be fair, the oil price was half of today a year ago and half that the year earlier, we do have a (expectable) dramatic change in prices over a short (in engineering terms) period of time.

Odd is that chemical engineers are such experts in public policy and do not point to the technical issues in the process at hand, which is what they should be experts in... The suggestion to have so many different blends is lunatic as the logistics will not work. You will not place that many different containers in a gas station. Europe tried it since 20 years and is going back due to the cost associated. Ain't working.]]> Tue, 26 Feb 2008 14:08:44 -0500
The reason we do not have a better alternative to oil and ethanol from corn is that virtually all of the suggested process do not work economically and they do not work large scale.

Of course once the oil price goes higher, the economics change, we will then also accumulate experience what may work and what not. But let's be fair, the oil price was half of today a year ago and half that the year earlier, we do have a (expectable) dramatic change in prices over a short (in engineering terms) period of time.

Odd is that chemical engineers are such experts in public policy and do not point to the technical issues in the process at hand, which is what they should be experts in... The suggestion to have so many different blends is lunatic as the logistics will not work. You will not place that many different containers in a gas station. Europe tried it since 20 years and is going back due to the cost associated. Ain't working.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/62837-cramer-ethanol-is-a-fuel-that-doesn-t-work?source=feed#comment-114422 114422 Mon, 04 Feb 2008 10:41:27 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/60198-verasun-energy-follow-the-ethanol-crush-spread?source=feed#comment-110544 110544 Tue, 15 Jan 2008 14:19:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/49566-verasun-energy-back-on-the-gas-um-ethanol?source=feed#comment-98414 98414 The deal with the smaller ethanol plants is more complex as those farmers have made a killing on ethanol previously and the plants are paid off. They on the other side do not need to buy on the spot market, but their calculation is based upon the corn input cost, and then ethanol still may make money for them where it does not for commercial ethanol producers. In addition they are not necessarily your preferred deal partner when it comes to M&A. So M&A will rather occur with small, farm independent ethanol producers, especially those that just got into the business, because their loans hurt.]]> Thu, 11 Oct 2007 16:33:45 -0400 The deal with the smaller ethanol plants is more complex as those farmers have made a killing on ethanol previously and the plants are paid off. They on the other side do not need to buy on the spot market, but their calculation is based upon the corn input cost, and then ethanol still may make money for them where it does not for commercial ethanol producers. In addition they are not necessarily your preferred deal partner when it comes to M&A. So M&A will rather occur with small, farm independent ethanol producers, especially those that just got into the business, because their loans hurt.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48477-covantas-irish-eyes-are-smiling?source=feed#comment-97166 97166 While short-term a Euro denominated deal maybe nice as you will get more dollars for it, this project has a runtime of 25+3 years. You are guaranteed to see swings of the Euro to the opposite end of the parity, i.e. 80 cents per Euro instead of the current 1.40. So you actually have a huge downside risk right now to do a longterm bid on Euro (i.e. a 50% loss risk) which will eat up all and any profits (you will no have more than 30% return). Combine that with the magnitude of the project and you have ... hype.]]> Sat, 29 Sep 2007 16:10:24 -0400 While short-term a Euro denominated deal maybe nice as you will get more dollars for it, this project has a runtime of 25+3 years. You are guaranteed to see swings of the Euro to the opposite end of the parity, i.e. 80 cents per Euro instead of the current 1.40. So you actually have a huge downside risk right now to do a longterm bid on Euro (i.e. a 50% loss risk) which will eat up all and any profits (you will no have more than 30% return). Combine that with the magnitude of the project and you have ... hype.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48457-archer-daniels-midland-s-collaboration-with-conocophillips-good-news-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-97165 97165 Yet, ADM is not anymore the largest EtOH producer (VeraSun is); none of the cellulosic (no "t") technologies are proven large scale, a.k.a. efficient (cost is 3 times conventional EtOH and that is barely profitable); for the farmer there is a choice to make: either EtOH or soy/diesel so it is a trade off always in supplies; there are only 10% diesel cars on the roads and the air pollution rules are not friendly to them; what exactly is biocrude ????

Re: Georealist, yep now new technologies lately - yet, the technologies have been around already since twenty years, no need to reinvent them (except to hype investors about "new" stuff). Just apply them! Oh yeah, Syngas, aka CTL, GTL or BTL is technology from the 1920's, nothing new there and still investors wet their pants when they hear it.]]> Sat, 29 Sep 2007 16:01:15 -0400 Yet, ADM is not anymore the largest EtOH producer (VeraSun is); none of the cellulosic (no "t") technologies are proven large scale, a.k.a. efficient (cost is 3 times conventional EtOH and that is barely profitable); for the farmer there is a choice to make: either EtOH or soy/diesel so it is a trade off always in supplies; there are only 10% diesel cars on the roads and the air pollution rules are not friendly to them; what exactly is biocrude ????

Re: Georealist, yep now new technologies lately - yet, the technologies have been around already since twenty years, no need to reinvent them (except to hype investors about "new" stuff). Just apply them! Oh yeah, Syngas, aka CTL, GTL or BTL is technology from the 1920's, nothing new there and still investors wet their pants when they hear it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40749-three-busted-biotech-ipos-amicus-jazz-sirtris?source=feed#comment-91049 91049
Well, for the not so familiar with biotech, here is the bad news: Most companies that went public recently (i.e. in the last three years) traded at or below IPO.

But maybe some of the Jazz drugs just make imagining the reality hard...]]> Thu, 12 Jul 2007 13:11:15 -0400
Well, for the not so familiar with biotech, here is the bad news: Most companies that went public recently (i.e. in the last three years) traded at or below IPO.

But maybe some of the Jazz drugs just make imagining the reality hard...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/40760-verenium-green-and-promising-emerging-biotechnologies?source=feed#comment-91048 91048 Thu, 12 Jul 2007 13:04:59 -0400