Quaker

The View From Friday's GDP Report

When was the last time GDP was revised up? IMO, GDP will start to really fall in the fourth quarter. This is when contagion from the mortgage markets makes it's way into credit cards and financing for boats, Harley's, motor homes and cottages.

Economics is the science of deception. 2 and 10 average to 6. So does 5 and 7. Add hedonic adjustments and seasonal adjustments and you have worthless blather.

Almost all of my elderly clients (accounting firm) have multiple homes and virtually ALL are selling one. Either a Florida or a NY. Almost all have leveraged motor homes and multiple cars. All the "home value" statistics tell you is that as sales fall, prices are being concentrated around the national average for mortgage loan approval based on wages. (As if we needed analysis to see that was going to happen. This has nothing to do with actual price.

The cottage industry is going to get DEMOLISHED. Cottages are the ultimate Alt-A, subprime. Nobody... and i mean NOBODY can even imagine summer home prices will fall. Not owners, not bankers.

But simultaneoulsy, we are going to get a bloodbath in sales of motor homes, harleys, ski-doo's.

When marina's are stuffed with unsellable fishing traulers and banks are repoing lake front property by the neighborhood, BEA will still be saying GDP is going up 3.4%.