Quaker

Natural Gas Picks and Pans

This is from the guy who six months ago couldn't find any reason for the run up in oil prices.

2007 Energy Investment Strategy: Pick the Laggards

We live in a post engineering society. Most of the people "analyzing" the oil industry are people weaned on financial statement analysis of tech stocks.

The idea that the world went from an oil shortage to an oil glut in three years, three years when not a single major field came online, is misguided. IN the US production fell 800k barrells after an enormous amount of new drilling.

The single most significant event of the 21st century has been the rebirth of the soviet union. They dumped enormous amounts of copper, alumininum and oil on the markets. In the case of alum and copper, (as well as gold and weapons) that dumping ended. In oil it's in the process. I haven't read a single serious paper on Russian production that calims production will rise, IMO, russian oil production, as well as Mexican, Saudi, Kuwaiti will drop 7-8% a year from now on.

But what do I know.