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Eisotrader

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  • Questcor Ate The Steak, Mallinckrodt Likely To Foot The Bill [View article]
    The goal of investing in stocks is to make money, not to be right. Do that by trading with the trend. QCOR has been in an uptrend, so it makes sense to hold the shares long (not short). Consider using a trailing stop (or selling covered calls, or buying puts) to protect the downside of your long position in the stock.

    All this "Quoth the Raven" stuff is just static. The way to make money is to listen to what the market is saying, not the opinions of any self-proclaimed analyst, whether or not he or she has a self-interest bias.

    Just my (let's make money) take on the situation.

    Eiso
    Jul 28 02:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor's 'Buyout' Could Fall Through [View article]
    Problem with the Raven is that he has a need to be right (no matter how long it takes). However, the goal of trading and investing is not "to be right," but to make money.

    Unless the Raven has a very large account (and/or very small short positions) margins calls on his QCOR shorts would have wiped him out by now.

    My feeling is that "the Raven" is not an investor, but rather a risk-averse person who enjoys the intellectual game of researching pharma stocks, commenting on them and taking "paper trading" positions on them.

    Based on his track record, the guy's opinions might be useful as contra indicators.

    Just my opinion.

    Eiso
    Jun 11 02:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Let Questcor's Short Squeeze Fool You, Major Risk Remains [View article]
    No one can guess when, or the price level at which a stock will top out (or bottom out). Trying to do so is a sure way to lose money, especially when the stock is trading at an all time high and there is no prior high to serve as a potential target resistance level. QCOR broke through its 52 week high today.

    I sold my Feb 22 expiration strike 62.5 calls today for a solid profit when QCOR approached its prior yearly (and all time) high. I'm still holding some Feb 22 short puts and a Feb 22 "bull put (credit) spread", both of which have a very high probably of expiring worthless on Friday (so I'll keep all the premium collected when I "sold to open" them).

    I'll take a look at how QCOR is trading tomorrow morning and consider buying long calls expiring either this Friday or next Friday, with the intention of selling before QCOR earnings are announced, but with the expectation that ongoing short covering will cause QCOR to continue to run up into earnings (and long calls will increase in value).

    QCOR will report earnings after the market closes on Tuesday, Feb 25th, so there are 5 trading days between now and then, plenty of time for QCOR stock to move enough to make short term options move a lot in percentage terms.

    When quarterly earnings are announced, everybody gets to see who was "right" and who was "wrong," but the traders will have cashed in their gains (or have cut losses) and will be knocking down a few cool ones (or sipping a good Chardonnay), while the Ravens of this world sweat through the announcement and the post-announcement interpretations of whatever QCOR's results and forward guidance may be.

    On Thursday morning, Feb 26, traders will assess the situation and begin to establish new QCOR positions based on known earnings report information rather than on rumor or speculation (or analyst opinions).

    Making money in the market is the result of trading based on what a stock is doing in real time. The Raven seems more interested in "being right" about all kinds of ancillary details (rumors and reports of potential regulatory actions, efficacy of Acthar for other medical conditions, etc.), which is a different game than having a strong focus on making money (which requires focus on stock chart patterns, options volatility and the like). Buying puts today is about the riskiest move he or she could have made.

    Just my opinion.
    Feb 18 06:53 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celsion Has Multi-Bagger Potential From Here [View article]
    The Raven is a smart dude, but has been applying his analysis skills on the wrong target. His portfolio would be better served if he would spend a lot less time trying to micro-analyze a company's finances, the possible outcomes of drugs trials and other so-called "fundamentals" and more time looking at what the chart is telling him (and the rest of us).

    As for CLSN now, note the rounded bottoming formation followed by a breakout gap and doji in the last week or so. That shows what could be a short term upward move as we approach the earnings report (the optimists are again buying). A few points:

    1. Buying CLSN shares now is like buying a perpetual call option on the stock for a little over a dollar. Good time to get in, if you believe in the company's long-term prospects.

    2. You can buy now to take a chance on the upcoming earnings report (and forward guidance), or wait until that's over and decide whether to buy post-earnings. The latter course is less risky.

    3. CLSN has an option chain. One can sell short term calls to take in some money (covered call premium) each month while waiting for CLSN to move up.

    Full disclosure. In 2012 I was long CLSN from early April through the end of the year (both owning shares and selling covered calls on them) and also buying at the money and one strike out of the money calls with month expirations. This netted substantial profits (with a few small losses buying back short calls along the way). I sold all stock and long calls in early January to avoid "event risk" where the results of the event (January announcement of drug trial results) were unclear. In other words, the winning strategy was to be long for the runup into the event (to take advantage of people's natural optimism and desire to participate in a positive result), but to sell and take profits off the table before the results were announced.

    There was only one positive response to my three or so December and early January postings suggesting this approach. The Raven and some of his detractors totally ignored any stock trading discussion, while continuing to post lengthy analyses of CLSN and the probabilities that the trials would succeed (or fail). Great stuff if you are microbiologist or oncologist, but not too helpful for anyone owning CLSN stock or options.

    As I said then and repeat now, the name of the game is to make money, not to be right (about the trials, or the result of whatever earnings or other event is at issue).

    The same goes here. Watch the charts and invest some time (a) learning how to read candlestick chart patterns and (b) learning about options and how to use them to both control stock and to manage risk. That's the way to make money in the stock market , irrespective of what any company's fundamentals, or scientific trials prospects, are at any given time.

    Just my opinion. I have no stock, option or other position in CLSN at the present time.

    Eiso
    Mar 11 02:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questcor - Short Squeeze Starting [View article]
    I'm long QCOR too and like the idea of buying LEAP calls (or shorter term debit call spreads) before the earnings announcement, but there's always substantial risk in owning a "one trick pony." The recent institutional support mentioned is good to hear.

    Also, a credit put spread a few strikes below QCOR's market price is a relatively conservative way to make a few dollars, if the revenues, earnings and company guidance all meet or beat what the street is expecting.
    Feb 15 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celsion Stock Blown Apart On Thermodox Phase III Data [View article]
    Buying CLSN now is like buying a perpetual call option on the future of ThermoDox.

    For those who are emotionally attached to CLSN (I'm not, never was), the question is how much you want to put on the table, and for how long a period of time, to satisfy your need to ultimately "be right" about the potential for ultimate success of the ThermoDox trials in other contexts.

    Eiso
    Feb 3 01:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celsion's 'Bad Beat' : 4 'Tells' That Longs Missed [View article]
    Posters on this board are confusing having to be right about the outcome of a drug trial with making money trading the stock and options of the company whose drug is being evaluated. There's no need to risk profits on the outcome of the trial.

    If you know that the results of a major drug trial will be announced a number of months in the future, buy shares in anticipation of a run-up into the event, but then sell before the announcement.

    Taking profits (in CLSN's case, darn good profits) by owning shares, buying a succession of near month long calls and selling out of the money covered calls over several months, then exiting all positions before the event, is a lot better than risking a big loss by holding through the event.

    Just my opinion.

    Eiso
    Feb 1 01:17 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Celsion Survive After Imploding Over Phase III Results? [View article]
    As I mentioned a week or two ago, the name of the game is to make money, not to be right (on whether any company's Phase III trials will be successful or not).

    The safer way to trade CLSN was to be long (shares or long calls) during the run-up in anticipation of the trials announcement (the public is naturally optimistic, so they bid up the stock), but to take profits before the event itself takes place. Writing near month out of the money covered calls on shares owned (or some of them) can add some extra monthly income along the way.

    We have all known for a long time that the Phase III announcement would be made in January, so there was big risk holding a position (long or short) in CLSN during this month.

    Once the January options expiration date (Jan 19) passed without any announcement, a successor position could have been a Feb options strangle two strikes out of the money (strike 10 calls and strike 6 puts, for about $4.30 total). That had profit potential, no matter what the result of the trials, because the stock was going to make a big move up or down on the announcement either way. As it turned out, the gain on the long puts far exceeds what probably will be a total loss on the long calls.

    For the record, I made good money from April 2012 to January on CLSN's run-up, sold all shares and long puts in late December and the first week in January), but did not put on the strangle.

    For a trader, CLSN is history, at least for a while. There are plenty of other stocks with far greater profit potential, getting ready to make tradeable runs (up or down). It's time to find them and get positioned for profit, not spend time crying over the unfortunate failure of Thermodox to attain the results which many had anticipated.

    Just my opinion.

    Eiso
    Jan 31 11:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Echo Automotive Stock Due For A Pullback? [View article]
    Here's the company's announcement of the trucking trade show noted in my previous post:

    INDIANAPOLIS, IN--(Marketwire - Jan 24, 2013) - Echo Automotive, Inc. ( OTCQB : ECAU ) ("Echo Automotive" or the "Company"), a developer of technologies enabling the cost effective conversion of existing fleet vehicles into fuel efficient hybrids, is pleased to announce the unveiling and demonstration of an EchoDriveā„¢ powered production-ready vehicle at the upcoming NTEA (National Truck and Equipment Association) tradeshow held in Indianapolis, Indiana March 6-8, 2013.

    If truck fleet drivers and owners are impressed by the product (which they will have opportunity to test drive at the show), and start ordering it, the profit potential is significant and today's $3.24 per share will look like a terrific bargain.

    Just my opinion..

    Eiso
    Jan 30 01:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Echo Automotive Stock Due For A Pullback? [View article]
    This company appears to have a real product, which significantly increases gas milage for large trucks and which will be demonstrated at a major trucking show in Indianapolis mid-March 2013. The major truck companies will be there and their drivers will have opportunity to drive a truck already fitted with the company's product and see for themselves what it can do.

    Also, according to the publicity materials, the company's management are experienced auto industry executives with solid management track records.

    It may be a good idea for those who have doubled their money to take some profits now (say by selling half of one's position and having a "free trade" with the rest), but there could be another run-up in the week or two prior to the trucking show. Certainly, we can expect significant volatility with big price swings between now and then.

    Taking profits is smart. So continuing to watch for developments for a new company which may have a transformative patent-protected product with significant potential for big-time future profits.

    It's all about risk management, watching the charts and making money.
    Jan 30 12:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recalculating Celsion's Upcoming Results [View article]
    The game is not being right or wrong about the results of the Thermodox trials, but to make money on the price movements of CLSN stock.

    The money made by owning CLSN and/or January long calls was made in 2012 and should have been taken off the table after the first week in January (to book the profits and not risk them on the trial results).

    All those commenting now would benefit by spending some time learning how to structure non-directional options trades (strangles, for example) to profit no matter which way the trials come out.

    Just my opinion as a trader (not an oncologist or cellular biologist).

    Eiso
    Jan 17 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celsion's HEAT Study: A Far From Certain Outcome - Part 2 [View article]
    There's an error in my post above about how to establish a strangle (to position oneself to make money no matter what the trial results turn out to be).

    The way to establish a strangle is to buy out of the money calls and also buy out of the money puts with the same expiration date. If there is a big move after announcement of the trial results (a reasonable assumption), the expectation is the the profit on the calls will be more than the (total) loss on the puts, or visa versa.

    No one has commented on my earlier post, so it appears that participants on this board are more interested in arguing who is right about the science than using their time to structure options positions which have a chance to make good money no matter what the trial results turn out to be.

    One near certainty is that there will be a big move in CLSN's stock price after the trial results are announced, and that move offers opportunity to make money (which I had thought was the whole idea of trading in the stock and options markets).

    Eiso
    Dec 25 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celsion's HEAT Study: A Far From Certain Outcome - Part 2 [View article]
    Sage's comments are more suitable for medical journal than an investment site.

    Stock prices are a product of human traders' greed and fear, not the arcane details of hypothetical bio-medical trial results. The stock has been in a strong uptrend for the past few months because traders are taking long positions in anticipation of the Phase III trail results announcement in January.

    Smart traders will take profits off the table before the announcement, rather than risk them on an unknown result. The name of the game is to make money, not to be right.

    Another way to trade the announcement, would be to structure a strangle in early January, buying OTM calls and selling OTM puts, either January or February expiration. This makes money if there is a big move in either direction after the announcement of the Phase III results.

    Sage could have taken his bearish positions after the stock had run up (which would have given him more potential dowside) and could still hedge a short stock position by buying long OTM calls with January or February expirations. The long calls should make a lot of money if the trials have a successful result, offsetting losses on the short stock position.

    Whether CLSN's Phase III trail will succeed or fail is not the issue for experienced traders. They establish and hedge their position to make money no matter what the outcome.

    Just my opinion.

    Eiso
    Dec 24 11:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celsion's HEAT Study: A Far From Certain Outcome - Part 2 [View article]
    Sage's analysis is better suited to publication in a medical journal, rather than at a site focused on making money in the stock market.

    The pre-Phase III market in CLSN has been moved by traders realizing that there is a natural human tendency to want the trials to succeed and positioning themselves long for the pre-announcement runup (which has been in progress for a few months and is now accellerating as we move toward January 2013, the month the trial results are due to be announced.

    The most important information for a trader to know would be the date the trial results will be released. Then the trader would exit the day before and book profits. There will subsequently be opportunity to enter new positions, whether ot not the trial succeeds, fails or has mixed results and the frenzy of post-announcement trading has abated.

    It's always better to leave a party too early rather than too late. And not to be greedy (CLSN has already more than doubled in price in the last two months).

    A possible way to cheaply trade the test results would be to take profits on current long stock and January long calls as soon as there is a reversal day on the CLSN chart, then use a portion of the profits to buy some out of the money LEAP calls (hedged with higher strike - closer expiration short calls for more conservative traders). Another idea would be to buy February ATM calls and sell January calls one or two strikes OTM. This both hedges losses (if the trail results are unfavorable) and limits profits (if they are favorable).

    To make money trading, pay attention to stock price movements, especially extraordinasy volatility driven by human fear and greed. Stay unemotional and learn when to take profits and always cut losses short. I'm talking about chart reading here, knowing the important patterns and signals and acting promptly when they appear.

    To get an education about cutting edge oncology drug trials, read selected medical journals.

    Just my opinion.

    Eiso
    Dec 24 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Methane in two Pennsylvania water wells reportedly has a chemical fingerprint that links it to natural gas from the Marcellus Shale drilled by Cabot Oil & Gas (COG -1.9%) through fracking, evidence that such drilling can pollute drinking water. COG maintains its operations haven’t contaminated the wells, and its scientists say the gas isn’t from the Marcellus. [View news story]
    This is a totally misleading comment. The vast majority of the scientists are not government employees and the objective global warming data speaks for itself.

    The only issue is how much of the warming is a natural geological cycle and how much man-made emissions of greenhouse gasses exacerbate the situation.
    Oct 3 11:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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