Celsion Has Multi-Bagger Potential From Here [View article]
The Raven is a smart dude, but has been applying his analysis skills on the wrong target. His portfolio would be better served if he would spend a lot less time trying to micro-analyze a company's finances, the possible outcomes of drugs trials and other so-called "fundamentals" and more time looking at what the chart is telling him (and the rest of us).
As for CLSN now, note the rounded bottoming formation followed by a breakout gap and doji in the last week or so. That shows what could be a short term upward move as we approach the earnings report (the optimists are again buying). A few points:
1. Buying CLSN shares now is like buying a perpetual call option on the stock for a little over a dollar. Good time to get in, if you believe in the company's long-term prospects.
2. You can buy now to take a chance on the upcoming earnings report (and forward guidance), or wait until that's over and decide whether to buy post-earnings. The latter course is less risky.
3. CLSN has an option chain. One can sell short term calls to take in some money (covered call premium) each month while waiting for CLSN to move up.
Full disclosure. In 2012 I was long CLSN from early April through the end of the year (both owning shares and selling covered calls on them) and also buying at the money and one strike out of the money calls with month expirations. This netted substantial profits (with a few small losses buying back short calls along the way). I sold all stock and long calls in early January to avoid "event risk" where the results of the event (January announcement of drug trial results) were unclear. In other words, the winning strategy was to be long for the runup into the event (to take advantage of people's natural optimism and desire to participate in a positive result), but to sell and take profits off the table before the results were announced.
There was only one positive response to my three or so December and early January postings suggesting this approach. The Raven and some of his detractors totally ignored any stock trading discussion, while continuing to post lengthy analyses of CLSN and the probabilities that the trials would succeed (or fail). Great stuff if you are microbiologist or oncologist, but not too helpful for anyone owning CLSN stock or options.
As I said then and repeat now, the name of the game is to make money, not to be right (about the trials, or the result of whatever earnings or other event is at issue).
The same goes here. Watch the charts and invest some time (a) learning how to read candlestick chart patterns and (b) learning about options and how to use them to both control stock and to manage risk. That's the way to make money in the stock market , irrespective of what any company's fundamentals, or scientific trials prospects, are at any given time.
Just my opinion. I have no stock, option or other position in CLSN at the present time.
I'm long QCOR too and like the idea of buying LEAP calls (or shorter term debit call spreads) before the earnings announcement, but there's always substantial risk in owning a "one trick pony." The recent institutional support mentioned is good to hear.
Also, a credit put spread a few strikes below QCOR's market price is a relatively conservative way to make a few dollars, if the revenues, earnings and company guidance all meet or beat what the street is expecting.
Celsion Stock Blown Apart On Thermodox Phase III Data [View article]
Buying CLSN now is like buying a perpetual call option on the future of ThermoDox.
For those who are emotionally attached to CLSN (I'm not, never was), the question is how much you want to put on the table, and for how long a period of time, to satisfy your need to ultimately "be right" about the potential for ultimate success of the ThermoDox trials in other contexts.
Posters on this board are confusing having to be right about the outcome of a drug trial with making money trading the stock and options of the company whose drug is being evaluated. There's no need to risk profits on the outcome of the trial.
If you know that the results of a major drug trial will be announced a number of months in the future, buy shares in anticipation of a run-up into the event, but then sell before the announcement.
Taking profits (in CLSN's case, darn good profits) by owning shares, buying a succession of near month long calls and selling out of the money covered calls over several months, then exiting all positions before the event, is a lot better than risking a big loss by holding through the event.
Can Celsion Survive After Imploding Over Phase III Results? [View article]
As I mentioned a week or two ago, the name of the game is to make money, not to be right (on whether any company's Phase III trials will be successful or not).
The safer way to trade CLSN was to be long (shares or long calls) during the run-up in anticipation of the trials announcement (the public is naturally optimistic, so they bid up the stock), but to take profits before the event itself takes place. Writing near month out of the money covered calls on shares owned (or some of them) can add some extra monthly income along the way.
We have all known for a long time that the Phase III announcement would be made in January, so there was big risk holding a position (long or short) in CLSN during this month.
Once the January options expiration date (Jan 19) passed without any announcement, a successor position could have been a Feb options strangle two strikes out of the money (strike 10 calls and strike 6 puts, for about $4.30 total). That had profit potential, no matter what the result of the trials, because the stock was going to make a big move up or down on the announcement either way. As it turned out, the gain on the long puts far exceeds what probably will be a total loss on the long calls.
For the record, I made good money from April 2012 to January on CLSN's run-up, sold all shares and long puts in late December and the first week in January), but did not put on the strangle.
For a trader, CLSN is history, at least for a while. There are plenty of other stocks with far greater profit potential, getting ready to make tradeable runs (up or down). It's time to find them and get positioned for profit, not spend time crying over the unfortunate failure of Thermodox to attain the results which many had anticipated.
Echo Automotive Stock Due For A Pullback? [View article]
Here's the company's announcement of the trucking trade show noted in my previous post:
INDIANAPOLIS, IN--(Marketwire - Jan 24, 2013) - Echo Automotive, Inc. ( OTCQB : ECAU ) ("Echo Automotive" or the "Company"), a developer of technologies enabling the cost effective conversion of existing fleet vehicles into fuel efficient hybrids, is pleased to announce the unveiling and demonstration of an EchoDrive™ powered production-ready vehicle at the upcoming NTEA (National Truck and Equipment Association) tradeshow held in Indianapolis, Indiana March 6-8, 2013.
If truck fleet drivers and owners are impressed by the product (which they will have opportunity to test drive at the show), and start ordering it, the profit potential is significant and today's $3.24 per share will look like a terrific bargain.
Echo Automotive Stock Due For A Pullback? [View article]
This company appears to have a real product, which significantly increases gas milage for large trucks and which will be demonstrated at a major trucking show in Indianapolis mid-March 2013. The major truck companies will be there and their drivers will have opportunity to drive a truck already fitted with the company's product and see for themselves what it can do.
Also, according to the publicity materials, the company's management are experienced auto industry executives with solid management track records.
It may be a good idea for those who have doubled their money to take some profits now (say by selling half of one's position and having a "free trade" with the rest), but there could be another run-up in the week or two prior to the trucking show. Certainly, we can expect significant volatility with big price swings between now and then.
Taking profits is smart. So continuing to watch for developments for a new company which may have a transformative patent-protected product with significant potential for big-time future profits.
It's all about risk management, watching the charts and making money.
The game is not being right or wrong about the results of the Thermodox trials, but to make money on the price movements of CLSN stock.
The money made by owning CLSN and/or January long calls was made in 2012 and should have been taken off the table after the first week in January (to book the profits and not risk them on the trial results).
All those commenting now would benefit by spending some time learning how to structure non-directional options trades (strangles, for example) to profit no matter which way the trials come out.
Just my opinion as a trader (not an oncologist or cellular biologist).
Celsion's HEAT Study: A Far From Certain Outcome - Part 2 [View article]
There's an error in my post above about how to establish a strangle (to position oneself to make money no matter what the trial results turn out to be).
The way to establish a strangle is to buy out of the money calls and also buy out of the money puts with the same expiration date. If there is a big move after announcement of the trial results (a reasonable assumption), the expectation is the the profit on the calls will be more than the (total) loss on the puts, or visa versa.
No one has commented on my earlier post, so it appears that participants on this board are more interested in arguing who is right about the science than using their time to structure options positions which have a chance to make good money no matter what the trial results turn out to be.
One near certainty is that there will be a big move in CLSN's stock price after the trial results are announced, and that move offers opportunity to make money (which I had thought was the whole idea of trading in the stock and options markets).
Celsion's HEAT Study: A Far From Certain Outcome - Part 2 [View article]
Sage's comments are more suitable for medical journal than an investment site.
Stock prices are a product of human traders' greed and fear, not the arcane details of hypothetical bio-medical trial results. The stock has been in a strong uptrend for the past few months because traders are taking long positions in anticipation of the Phase III trail results announcement in January.
Smart traders will take profits off the table before the announcement, rather than risk them on an unknown result. The name of the game is to make money, not to be right.
Another way to trade the announcement, would be to structure a strangle in early January, buying OTM calls and selling OTM puts, either January or February expiration. This makes money if there is a big move in either direction after the announcement of the Phase III results.
Sage could have taken his bearish positions after the stock had run up (which would have given him more potential dowside) and could still hedge a short stock position by buying long OTM calls with January or February expirations. The long calls should make a lot of money if the trials have a successful result, offsetting losses on the short stock position.
Whether CLSN's Phase III trail will succeed or fail is not the issue for experienced traders. They establish and hedge their position to make money no matter what the outcome.
Celsion's HEAT Study: A Far From Certain Outcome - Part 2 [View article]
Sage's analysis is better suited to publication in a medical journal, rather than at a site focused on making money in the stock market.
The pre-Phase III market in CLSN has been moved by traders realizing that there is a natural human tendency to want the trials to succeed and positioning themselves long for the pre-announcement runup (which has been in progress for a few months and is now accellerating as we move toward January 2013, the month the trial results are due to be announced.
The most important information for a trader to know would be the date the trial results will be released. Then the trader would exit the day before and book profits. There will subsequently be opportunity to enter new positions, whether ot not the trial succeeds, fails or has mixed results and the frenzy of post-announcement trading has abated.
It's always better to leave a party too early rather than too late. And not to be greedy (CLSN has already more than doubled in price in the last two months).
A possible way to cheaply trade the test results would be to take profits on current long stock and January long calls as soon as there is a reversal day on the CLSN chart, then use a portion of the profits to buy some out of the money LEAP calls (hedged with higher strike - closer expiration short calls for more conservative traders). Another idea would be to buy February ATM calls and sell January calls one or two strikes OTM. This both hedges losses (if the trail results are unfavorable) and limits profits (if they are favorable).
To make money trading, pay attention to stock price movements, especially extraordinasy volatility driven by human fear and greed. Stay unemotional and learn when to take profits and always cut losses short. I'm talking about chart reading here, knowing the important patterns and signals and acting promptly when they appear.
To get an education about cutting edge oncology drug trials, read selected medical journals.
Methane in two Pennsylvania water wells reportedly has a chemical fingerprint that links it to natural gas from the Marcellus Shale drilled by Cabot Oil & Gas (COG -1.9%) through fracking, evidence that such drilling can pollute drinking water. COG maintains its operations haven’t contaminated the wells, and its scientists say the gas isn’t from the Marcellus. [View news story]
This is a totally misleading comment. The vast majority of the scientists are not government employees and the objective global warming data speaks for itself.
The only issue is how much of the warming is a natural geological cycle and how much man-made emissions of greenhouse gasses exacerbate the situation.
Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR) declares its first-ever quarterly dividend of $0.20/share. Forward yield 4.48%. For shareholders of record Oct 31. Payable Nov 15. Ex-div date Oct 29. Shares +8% premarket. (PR) [View news story]
This is helpful validation of the company's prospects and long term business potential. The sell-off is way overdone. To accumulate additional shares (or collect options premiums) consider selling Oct, Nov, etc. strike 20 puts.
Questcor's (QCOR -38.5%) weakness a buying opportunity , says Leerink Swann. The firm says it's confirmed with Aetna (AET -0.3%) that Acthar is reimbursed as a second tier drug, and Acthar sales are still seeing more prescriptions written. [View news story]
A material fact would be what percentage of QCOR's revenues and profits are represented by Acthar overall, and of that amount, what percentage has come from Aetna reimbursements..
Celsion Has Multi-Bagger Potential From Here [View article]
As for CLSN now, note the rounded bottoming formation followed by a breakout gap and doji in the last week or so. That shows what could be a short term upward move as we approach the earnings report (the optimists are again buying). A few points:
1. Buying CLSN shares now is like buying a perpetual call option on the stock for a little over a dollar. Good time to get in, if you believe in the company's long-term prospects.
2. You can buy now to take a chance on the upcoming earnings report (and forward guidance), or wait until that's over and decide whether to buy post-earnings. The latter course is less risky.
3. CLSN has an option chain. One can sell short term calls to take in some money (covered call premium) each month while waiting for CLSN to move up.
Full disclosure. In 2012 I was long CLSN from early April through the end of the year (both owning shares and selling covered calls on them) and also buying at the money and one strike out of the money calls with month expirations. This netted substantial profits (with a few small losses buying back short calls along the way). I sold all stock and long calls in early January to avoid "event risk" where the results of the event (January announcement of drug trial results) were unclear. In other words, the winning strategy was to be long for the runup into the event (to take advantage of people's natural optimism and desire to participate in a positive result), but to sell and take profits off the table before the results were announced.
There was only one positive response to my three or so December and early January postings suggesting this approach. The Raven and some of his detractors totally ignored any stock trading discussion, while continuing to post lengthy analyses of CLSN and the probabilities that the trials would succeed (or fail). Great stuff if you are microbiologist or oncologist, but not too helpful for anyone owning CLSN stock or options.
As I said then and repeat now, the name of the game is to make money, not to be right (about the trials, or the result of whatever earnings or other event is at issue).
The same goes here. Watch the charts and invest some time (a) learning how to read candlestick chart patterns and (b) learning about options and how to use them to both control stock and to manage risk. That's the way to make money in the stock market , irrespective of what any company's fundamentals, or scientific trials prospects, are at any given time.
Just my opinion. I have no stock, option or other position in CLSN at the present time.
Eiso
Questcor - Short Squeeze Starting [View article]
Also, a credit put spread a few strikes below QCOR's market price is a relatively conservative way to make a few dollars, if the revenues, earnings and company guidance all meet or beat what the street is expecting.
Celsion Stock Blown Apart On Thermodox Phase III Data [View article]
For those who are emotionally attached to CLSN (I'm not, never was), the question is how much you want to put on the table, and for how long a period of time, to satisfy your need to ultimately "be right" about the potential for ultimate success of the ThermoDox trials in other contexts.
Eiso
Celsion's 'Bad Beat' : 4 'Tells' That Longs Missed [View article]
If you know that the results of a major drug trial will be announced a number of months in the future, buy shares in anticipation of a run-up into the event, but then sell before the announcement.
Taking profits (in CLSN's case, darn good profits) by owning shares, buying a succession of near month long calls and selling out of the money covered calls over several months, then exiting all positions before the event, is a lot better than risking a big loss by holding through the event.
Just my opinion.
Eiso
Can Celsion Survive After Imploding Over Phase III Results? [View article]
The safer way to trade CLSN was to be long (shares or long calls) during the run-up in anticipation of the trials announcement (the public is naturally optimistic, so they bid up the stock), but to take profits before the event itself takes place. Writing near month out of the money covered calls on shares owned (or some of them) can add some extra monthly income along the way.
We have all known for a long time that the Phase III announcement would be made in January, so there was big risk holding a position (long or short) in CLSN during this month.
Once the January options expiration date (Jan 19) passed without any announcement, a successor position could have been a Feb options strangle two strikes out of the money (strike 10 calls and strike 6 puts, for about $4.30 total). That had profit potential, no matter what the result of the trials, because the stock was going to make a big move up or down on the announcement either way. As it turned out, the gain on the long puts far exceeds what probably will be a total loss on the long calls.
For the record, I made good money from April 2012 to January on CLSN's run-up, sold all shares and long puts in late December and the first week in January), but did not put on the strangle.
For a trader, CLSN is history, at least for a while. There are plenty of other stocks with far greater profit potential, getting ready to make tradeable runs (up or down). It's time to find them and get positioned for profit, not spend time crying over the unfortunate failure of Thermodox to attain the results which many had anticipated.
Just my opinion.
Eiso
Echo Automotive Stock Due For A Pullback? [View article]
INDIANAPOLIS, IN--(Marketwire - Jan 24, 2013) - Echo Automotive, Inc. ( OTCQB : ECAU ) ("Echo Automotive" or the "Company"), a developer of technologies enabling the cost effective conversion of existing fleet vehicles into fuel efficient hybrids, is pleased to announce the unveiling and demonstration of an EchoDrive™ powered production-ready vehicle at the upcoming NTEA (National Truck and Equipment Association) tradeshow held in Indianapolis, Indiana March 6-8, 2013.
If truck fleet drivers and owners are impressed by the product (which they will have opportunity to test drive at the show), and start ordering it, the profit potential is significant and today's $3.24 per share will look like a terrific bargain.
Just my opinion..
Eiso
Echo Automotive Stock Due For A Pullback? [View article]
Also, according to the publicity materials, the company's management are experienced auto industry executives with solid management track records.
It may be a good idea for those who have doubled their money to take some profits now (say by selling half of one's position and having a "free trade" with the rest), but there could be another run-up in the week or two prior to the trucking show. Certainly, we can expect significant volatility with big price swings between now and then.
Taking profits is smart. So continuing to watch for developments for a new company which may have a transformative patent-protected product with significant potential for big-time future profits.
It's all about risk management, watching the charts and making money.
Recalculating Celsion's Upcoming Results [View article]
The money made by owning CLSN and/or January long calls was made in 2012 and should have been taken off the table after the first week in January (to book the profits and not risk them on the trial results).
All those commenting now would benefit by spending some time learning how to structure non-directional options trades (strangles, for example) to profit no matter which way the trials come out.
Just my opinion as a trader (not an oncologist or cellular biologist).
Eiso
Celsion's HEAT Study: A Far From Certain Outcome - Part 2 [View article]
The way to establish a strangle is to buy out of the money calls and also buy out of the money puts with the same expiration date. If there is a big move after announcement of the trial results (a reasonable assumption), the expectation is the the profit on the calls will be more than the (total) loss on the puts, or visa versa.
No one has commented on my earlier post, so it appears that participants on this board are more interested in arguing who is right about the science than using their time to structure options positions which have a chance to make good money no matter what the trial results turn out to be.
One near certainty is that there will be a big move in CLSN's stock price after the trial results are announced, and that move offers opportunity to make money (which I had thought was the whole idea of trading in the stock and options markets).
Eiso
Celsion's HEAT Study: A Far From Certain Outcome - Part 2 [View article]
Stock prices are a product of human traders' greed and fear, not the arcane details of hypothetical bio-medical trial results. The stock has been in a strong uptrend for the past few months because traders are taking long positions in anticipation of the Phase III trail results announcement in January.
Smart traders will take profits off the table before the announcement, rather than risk them on an unknown result. The name of the game is to make money, not to be right.
Another way to trade the announcement, would be to structure a strangle in early January, buying OTM calls and selling OTM puts, either January or February expiration. This makes money if there is a big move in either direction after the announcement of the Phase III results.
Sage could have taken his bearish positions after the stock had run up (which would have given him more potential dowside) and could still hedge a short stock position by buying long OTM calls with January or February expirations. The long calls should make a lot of money if the trials have a successful result, offsetting losses on the short stock position.
Whether CLSN's Phase III trail will succeed or fail is not the issue for experienced traders. They establish and hedge their position to make money no matter what the outcome.
Just my opinion.
Eiso
Celsion's HEAT Study: A Far From Certain Outcome - Part 2 [View article]
The pre-Phase III market in CLSN has been moved by traders realizing that there is a natural human tendency to want the trials to succeed and positioning themselves long for the pre-announcement runup (which has been in progress for a few months and is now accellerating as we move toward January 2013, the month the trial results are due to be announced.
The most important information for a trader to know would be the date the trial results will be released. Then the trader would exit the day before and book profits. There will subsequently be opportunity to enter new positions, whether ot not the trial succeeds, fails or has mixed results and the frenzy of post-announcement trading has abated.
It's always better to leave a party too early rather than too late. And not to be greedy (CLSN has already more than doubled in price in the last two months).
A possible way to cheaply trade the test results would be to take profits on current long stock and January long calls as soon as there is a reversal day on the CLSN chart, then use a portion of the profits to buy some out of the money LEAP calls (hedged with higher strike - closer expiration short calls for more conservative traders). Another idea would be to buy February ATM calls and sell January calls one or two strikes OTM. This both hedges losses (if the trail results are unfavorable) and limits profits (if they are favorable).
To make money trading, pay attention to stock price movements, especially extraordinasy volatility driven by human fear and greed. Stay unemotional and learn when to take profits and always cut losses short. I'm talking about chart reading here, knowing the important patterns and signals and acting promptly when they appear.
To get an education about cutting edge oncology drug trials, read selected medical journals.
Just my opinion.
Eiso
Methane in two Pennsylvania water wells reportedly has a chemical fingerprint that links it to natural gas from the Marcellus Shale drilled by Cabot Oil & Gas (COG -1.9%) through fracking, evidence that such drilling can pollute drinking water. COG maintains its operations haven’t contaminated the wells, and its scientists say the gas isn’t from the Marcellus. [View news story]
The only issue is how much of the warming is a natural geological cycle and how much man-made emissions of greenhouse gasses exacerbate the situation.
Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR) declares its first-ever quarterly dividend of $0.20/share. Forward yield 4.48%. For shareholders of record Oct 31. Payable Nov 15. Ex-div date Oct 29. Shares +8% premarket. (PR) [View news story]
Questcor's (QCOR -38.5%) weakness a buying opportunity , says Leerink Swann. The firm says it's confirmed with Aetna (AET -0.3%) that Acthar is reimbursed as a second tier drug, and Acthar sales are still seeing more prescriptions written. [View news story]
Eiso
Cliffs Natural Resources: Time For A Massive Short [View article]
Eiso