Topdown Charts is a chart-driven macro research house covering global asset allocation and economics. The flagship institutional offering is the Weekly Macro Themes - a vital source of macro insights and multi-asset investment ideas for portfolio managers. Message us or visit the website to receive a trial subscription.
SurlyTrader is a portfolio manager at a large financial institution who specializes in trading derivatives. He has been in the financial services industry for over a decade and would like to share his experience and enthusiasm in the financial markets with those who have a natural curiosity and passion to learn.
He completed a BS in Computer Engineering with Mathematics minor, and a MBA in Finance. He is also a CFA Charterholder and Global Association of Risk Professionals Financial Risk Manager (FRM).
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*Trading needs a gameplan and discipline. Elazar has served clients in the $100mm-$10B asset range. See the market through a new simple perspective. Make decisions based on how the market functions with PRO TRADER (Click here).
We've followed SPY, Oil, GLD, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, TSLA, TLT, SLV, UNG, XIV, XLV, XLF, XLI, EFA, CYB, WEAT, SOXX, IAU, FXY, TLT, BAL, and many other securities with strong historical model results
(See here for performance).
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Past performance can not predict future performance. Capital invested is capital at risk and especially when leverage is used large, some if not all of the principal can be lost. Please consult your financial advisor if such a service is right for you. The performance data shown includes back-tested past performance, which is not a guarantee of future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data cited. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations unlike actual performance records. Real time performance is in the process of being compiled in PRO TRADER on Seeking Alpha.
Our mission is simple: To help you make money. In addition to generating our own analysis, we also draw ideas from the most talented stock pickers in the traditional equity and hedge fund space.
Commercial litigator by day and value investor by night. Obsessed with Lou Simpson, Glenn Greenberg, and Allan Mecham. I tend to gravitate towards classic GARP-style companies. I enjoy studying 10Ks, with a particular fondness for spotting developing competitive advantages. I have dabbled in net-nets, distressed debt, international, and other forms of classic value investing, but I find that I am better at qualitative analysis and it works better with my skill set.
The posts are meant to be informative and hopefully insightful. I write to share my ideas, highlight some interesting stories and to interact with other investors - please feel free to contact me if you'd like to chat further.
I make lot's of mistakes so please do your own due diligence. I don't intend to aggressively promote stocks but it's fair to say I am often talking my own book.
Ph.D. economics and Finance MBA finance
Globe Institute of Technology
Professor – Economics and Finance, Chair of Business Department
Colorado Technical University
Adjunct Professor – courses: Applied Managerial Finance (Graduate Level), Microeconomics, International Finance
European School Of Economics (New York Campus)
Adjunct Professor – Economics (Graduate Level) Courses taught: Microeconomics
Metropolitan College of New York
Adjunct Professor – Economics, Banking and Finance
Courses taught: History of Economic Thought, Macroeconomics, Money and Financial Institutions
World Gold Council
New York, NY
• Constructed econometric models relating to gold's role as a portfolio diversifier primarily aimed at institutional investors.
• Focused on models of the embedded optionality of gold in terms of its relation to other investment assets and economic fundamentals such as inflation and business conditions.
Founder and President, Internet Startup company with polling and investment advice websites.
Fundamental Portfolio Advisors, Inc.
Chief Portfolio Strategist – President
• At the predecessor company I started the New York Muni Fund, the first single state triple tax-free municipal bond fund.
• I took the fund from a one-employee start-up where I performed every function to a family of mutual funds which had five funds with total assets above $300 million and which did all of its distribution, accounting and transfer in-house.
• I wrote the initial prospectus and was responsible for managing the portfolios of what eventually grew to be a family of 5 mutual funds.
• Was chief economist for parent company’s brokerage affiliate.
• Involved on the buy-side in the development and monitoring of various structured municipal finance products. Worked with major issuers such as New York City and major investment banks such as Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs.
• Designed and submitted a U.S. Patent Application for a portfolio management system for mutual funds involving derivatives.
Note: In 1996 Fundamental Portfolio Advisors and myself were subject to civil litigation by the SEC which resulted in deregistration and a permanent bar from the securities industry.
A. Gary Shilling & Co.
Senior Economist – Vice President
Economic consulting, modeling and forecasting. Both macro and micro.
• Clients included: Emerson Electric, Bethlehem Steel, Castle & Cooke, Cooper Industries and the U.S. Department of Transportation.
• I was the author of the 1979 study commissioned by the U.S. Government Interstate Commerce Commission, which calculated the expected economic impact of trucking deregulation.
White, Weld & Co, Inc.
• White, Weld was the sixth largest investment banking and brokerage firm when Merrill Lynch bought it.
• Extensive work was done on the All-American Pipeline Proposal to tap the Alaskan Gas Reserves.
• The economics department of White, Weld formed A. Gary Shilling & Co. at the time of the Merrill Lynch merger.
American Stock Exchange
New York University
June 1978 Ph.D.
• Ph.D. dual field, economics and finance.
• Doctoral dissertation was in contingency claims (options) theory
June 1973 MBA with concentration in economics and finance
NYU Engineering School
June 1971 Bachelor of Science - Nuclear Engineering Tau Beta Pi
Analysis of the Embedded Inflation Optionality in Gold Prices. World Gold Council, 2000. New York, N.Y.
The Economic Impact of Trucking Deregulation. Interstate Commerce Commission, 1979, Washington D.C.
Portfolio Manager, Puplava Financial Services, Inc. - Registered Investment Advisor
Registered Representative, Puplava Securities, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC
Chris graduated magna cum laude with a B.S. in Biochemistry from California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. He joined PFS Group in 2005 and is currently pursuing the designation of Chartered Financial Analyst. His professional designations include FINRA Series 7 and Series 66 Uniform Combined State Law Exam. He is the lead portfolio manager of PFS Group's Dividend Growth Managed Account, Strategic Real Return Managed Account, and the Precious Metals Managed Account. Chris also contributes articles and Market Observations to Financial Sense.
Chris utilizes a top-down approach with an emphasis on macro economics while also taking key inputs from the market to formulate an investment narrative and structure portfolios. Chris utilizes a strict disciplined risk management system to protect client capital for all market conditions.
Robert P. Balan has more than 4 decades of experience in the financial markets. Education in mining engineering, computer science, finance, and training in economics led to a commodity analysis career during the commodity boom of the early 1970s. Robert made a switch to global macro focus in the early 1980 when the commodity bull market waned, with specialization in foreign exchange. Robert wrote a very high profile daily FX analysis while Geneva-based in the mid-1980s (the first FX commentary with a real global readership, "most accessed" in the Reuters and Telerate networks from 1988 to 1994). He worked for Swiss Bank Corp and Union Bank of Switzerland (precursors of today’s new UBS) as head of technical research and as proprietary trader in various major finance centers (London, New York, and subsequently head of proprietary trading in Toronto, respectively) from late 1980s to mid-1990s. A stint at Bank of America as head of global technical research (in London and New York) followed in late 1990s to early 2000s. Robert did technical analysis for Saxo Bank (Denmark) in the mid-200s based in New York. He returned to Switzerland in 2004 as head of technical research and strategy, and FX and commodity market analyst for Swiss Life Asset Management in Zurich. He joined Diapason Commodities Management in 2008 as senior market strategist, and subsequently as Chief Market Strategist, utilizing fundamental macroeconomic drivers, and structural/technical data in modeling asset price and sector movements. Robert wrote a book on the Elliott Wave Principle in 1988, which was hailed by the London Society of Technical Analysts as “the best book ever written on the subject”. Robert is a member of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), USA.
David Tuzzolino, CFA, is the founder and editor of the Tuzz Report, a publication of Tuzzolino Investment Research, LLC. The Tuzz Report focuses on small and micro-cap value stocks that are underfollowed and misunderstood. Academic research has proven that these stocks outperform the overall market.
David has worked in the investment industry for over two decades for companies such as Bank of New York Mellon, JP Morgan and Banc One Investment Advisors. David has appeared on Bloomberg TV and has been quoted in articles featured on Barrons.com.
Follow him on Twitter: @TuzzReport
Value investor running a long-only partnership/SMAs, as well as a Marketplace subscription for objective buyside research. Pseudonymous to protect my IR access but I’m always up for a conversation with anyone interested in value investing or mental models. I also collaborate with a few well-known hedge fund managers and am open to swapping notes if we're looking at similar names.
My Marketplace subscription service, called “Outsourced Analyst,” provides small-mid-sized funds, family offices, or high-net-worth investors the workflow of an analyst for a hundredth of the price. I write objective coverage of high-quality, underfollowed small-caps that I'm working on / following. Subscribers also have early (sometimes exclusive) access to writeups of some of my best ideas like those I've posted on LQDT, CRAI, FC, LGIH, BOOM, CSWI, and so on. Bonus material is thought pieces - I place a lot of emphasis on learning and getting better - so if/when I make mistakes, I'll write up postmortems with what I learned, and maybe they'll help you as well... Membership will be limited to the first 250 subscribers.
Seeking Alpha T&C requires me to disclose that I'm a registered investment advisor; regulations require me to reiterate that nothing I say is investment advice - it's just my Monday-morning-quarterback opinion for your entertainment and amusement. Always do your own due diligence, consider your own financial position, and consult your preferred financial professional before making any investment decision.
Janus Capital Group Inc. (JCG) is a global investment firm dedicated to delivering better outcomes for clients through a broad range of actively managed investment solutions, including fixed income, equity, alternative and multi-asset class strategies. It does so through a number of distinct investment platforms, including investment teams within Janus Capital Management LLC (Janus), as well as INTECH Investment Management LLC (INTECH) and Perkins Investment Management LLC (Perkins), in addition to a suite of exchange-traded products under the VelocityShares brand as well as global macro fixed income products under the Kapstream brand. Each team brings distinct asset class expertise, perspective, style-specific experience and a disciplined approach to risk. Investment strategies are offered through open-end funds domiciled in both the U.S. and offshore, as well as through separately managed accounts, collective investment trusts and exchange-traded products.
Jeffrey Saut is Chief Investment Strategist and Managing Director of Equity Research at Raymond James & Associates.
Mr. Saut began his career on a trading desk in New York City. In 1973, he joined E.F . Hutton, where he began following equities and writing research. He subsequently worked as a securities analyst for Wheat First Securities, and then Branch Cabell, where he ran the equity research group as director of research and acted as portfolio manager for the firm's affiliate, Exeter Capital Management. As director of research, he built the research and institutional sales departments for the regional brokerage firm Ferris, Baker and Watts, Inc. and subsequently Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.
Mr. Saut is well known for his insightful and colorful commentary regarding the stock market, and he makes regular media appearances.
Note: Mr. Saut is not an active contributor to Seeking Alpha; rather, SA editors excerpt regularly from Mr. Saut's public commentary.
I have been an active investor/trader since 1994, with quite good results.
I have done both academic and practical research on computer-based (fully automated or semi-automated) short-term stock market prediction and negotiation, but for consistent returns, I still believe it is hard to beat long-term investing based on fundamentals.
At present, the basis of my personal investment portfolio mainly combines energy-related commodities and stocks.
I recognize that the risk/reward tends to be heavily skewed against the short side and as such I believe short positions should be kept small, when not part of a well thought out long/short strategy.
Besides being an investor I'm a professor at a Portuguese university.
Mr. Jones has over 13 years of experience in the investment and consumer banking industries. During this time he has been able to perform equity research & analysis, portfolio management, manager analysis, and asset allocation functions. Mr. Jones has invested money for endowments, foundations, and high-net-worth individuals and has been responsible for selecting and monitoring sub-advisers used in multi-billion dollar mutual funds. He graduated in the top 20% of his M.B.A. class from a top 20 U.S. University and has a bachelors degree in economics with an emphasis in finance and mathematics. Mr. Jones is a CFA Charterholder and member of the CFA Institute and CFA Society of Kansas City. He is a U.S. Marine Corp Veteran having served in Iraq.
Author of Quantitative Investing, the Global Household Index service and the free weekly Market Timing Signals. Investor looking for profitability in combinations of value and quality factors, closed-end funds selection, tactical asset allocation and volatility trading. To get information on my various model portfolios in stocks, ETFs and CEFs, click the link "send message".
PhD, Software Engineer, Civil Engineer, 20+ years working in various sectors and countries.
Bill Gross is a Portfolio Manager responsible for managing the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, and all related portfolios, and leading efforts to build out Janus' global macro fixed income capabilities. He also serves as an integral member of the Janus Capital Group Global Allocation Committee focused on the expansion of Janus' global asset allocation business. He is based in Newport Beach, California. Mr. Gross co-founded PIMCO in 1971 and served as managing director and Chief Investment Officer until joining Janus in 2014. Throughout his career, Mr. Gross has received numerous awards including Morningstar Fixed Income Manager of the Decade for 2000-2009 and Fixed Income Manager of the Year for 1998, 2000 and 2007. He became the first portfolio manager inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society’s Hall of Fame in 1996 and received the Bond Market Association’s Distinguished Service Award in 2000. In 2011, Institutional Investor magazine awarded him the Money Management Lifetime Achievement Award. He is a renowned expert within the bond market and is at the forefront of thought leadership on the subject of fixed income investing. He is also author of the books, Everything You’ve Heard About Investing is Wrong and Bill Gross on Investing.
Mr. Gross holds an undergraduate degree from Duke University and an MBA from the Anderson School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles. He has 44 years of financial industry experience.
I am an individual investor currently swing trading volatility ETNs (XIV and VXX). I am developing strategies for timing trades and backtesting using excel.
Contango is my friend.
My handle on twitter is @ContangoMojo
In January 2015, Steven launched the Uguisu Value letter. Published quarterly, each issue features one thoroughly researched Japanese smaller-cap equity write-up that has baseline 2x upside. With returns of 30%-plus (40%+ yen-denominated) in 2013 and 2014, Steven remains focused on smaller caps as he invests alongside subscribers and maintains a concentrated portfolio. For more details see: http://steventowns.com/uguisu-value-newsletter/
Steven is also the author of 'Investing in Japan: There is no stock market as undervalued and as misunderstood' (2012). 'Investing in Japan' fills the void of information about Japanese stocks, providing a comprehensive overview of the market, challenging conventional wisdom of Japan being on its last leg, and providing insightful discussion of many key aspects to investing in Japan, including the strategies of investment funds, leading hedge funds, idiosyncrasies of the market, returns on equity, shareholder rights, and more. See book detail page below or paste the following book link to Amazon in your browser: http://amzn.to/AENfeH
I am a retired global analyst, currently busy in investing and writing articles about stocks at several investing publications and websites. I have also developed strategies for creating winning portfolios according to specific formulas.
In January 2015, I was ranked among the world’s top 10 financial bloggers according to TipRanks, which holds financial experts accountable for their recommendations by disclosing their stock ratings since 2009:
Jack is a value investor able to find value hidden in the balance sheet and in a company's financials through the use of quantified analysis. His recommendations come from his unique "QaRV" model (Quality and Relative Value). His writing is clear, actionable and easy to follow, helping others make independent investment decisions.
The QaRV model is an extension of Joel Greenblatt’s “Magic Formula”. The Magic Formula aimed to find quality businesses at cheap prices using the company’s Return on Capital and the Earnings Yield. The QaRV model builds on this to further look at the quality and value of a business. It is unlike other quant models in that it does not take a "one-size-fits-all" approach. Each stock is unique, and therefore should require a unique method of finding intrinsic value. Using statistical analysis, the QaRV model can identify which metrics hold the highest predictive power of share price, and draw a relative valuation based on the company's peers. The model is then able to quantify the intrinsic value of a company based on its relative value, the quality of the company and the recent trends in stock ownership.
Jack provides his updates and investment opportunities on SeekingAlpha and on Stock Views.
Always looking to learn and always open to suggestions on how to improve his analysis, the best way to contact Jack is via email: email@example.com.
Bespoke Investment Group provides some of the most original content and intuitive thinking on the Street. Founded by Paul Hickey and Justin Walters, formerly of Birinyi Associates and creators of the acclaimed TickerSense blog, Bespoke offers multiple products that allow anyone, from institutions to the most modest investor, to gain the data and knowledge necessary to make intelligent and profitable investment decisions. Along with running their Think B.I.G. finance blog, Bespoke provides timely investment ideas through its Bespoke Premium (http://bespokepremium.com/) subscription service and also manages money (http://bespokepremium.com/mm) for high net worth individuals.
Visit: Bespoke Investment Group (http://bespokeinvest.com/)
I have recently left my job as a Financial Credit Analyst at one of the Big-4 US banks to venture off on my own to start an Investment Management firm called Stockmeister Capital. Stockmeister Capital will manage investments funds for both Qualified and Non-Qualified investors.
My investment style is heavily influenced by Warren Buffett and nearly all of my investment ideas revolve around a monopolistic business. I look for companies with strong business models, significantly undervalued earnings power, predictable earnings, and a long runway for future growth.
I also like watching/playing sports, hunting for antique books or historical items, and playing card or board games.