At the close: Dow +1.66% to 10152. S&P +1.66% to 1065. Nasdaq +1.65% to 2154. Treasurys: 30-year -1.72%. 10-yr -0.8%. 5-yr -0.47%. Commodities: Crude +2.78% to $75.40. Gold +0.16% to $1239.70. Currencies: Euro +0.14% vs. dollar. Yen -1.18%. Pound -0.09%. [View news story]
In all seriousness, it flies in the face of logic to call that GDP number "better than expected", just as it did when the initial jobless number on Thursday was called the same thing.
So what you're saying is that anyone under, say, 25 years old has nothing to worry about. That leaves a lot of people who better do something more than buy and hold.
We're burned out: The first drop in worker productivity in 18 months may be a sign that employees are finally stretched too thin, Paul La Monica says - meaning that companies may no longer be able to rely on cutting costs, particularly through layoffs, to juice profits. [View news story]
Market recap: Buyers returned to the market late in the day, and stocks pared most of their losses after the weak jobs report raised concerns about a slow economy. Health care and consumer staples were among the leading sectors, while financials lagged. NYSE decliners led advancers three to two. Yields on the 10-year Treasury fell to 2.826%, lowest since April 2009. [View news story]
I understand that the market can stay irrational for longer than the average player (nobody is an investor anymore) can stay solvent. However, the market CANNOT continue to disregard bad news indefinitely. This scheme is a house of cards. Absolutely no reason existed for buyers to return to the market in the afternoon.
Market recap: Stocks rose after reports on private sector hiring and the services industry provided reassurances that the economy continues to grow. Consumer discretionary stocks led gainers, with Priceline (PCLN +22.2%) surging to a 10-year high after a huge earnings beat. The dollar rose, Treasurys finished lower, and NYSE advancers beat decliners two to one. [View news story]
I'm skeptical. It would be nice to know some details about these service industry positions. Are they salaried? Hourly? Minimum wage? What sector? When we factor in seasonality, is the number of positions created a good number or a bad number?
If the answers come back "minimum wage summer student restaurant jobs, and about half the number of summer jobs that would be created if things were better", I don't really see any reason for excitement. But then, details tend to be sketchy when the Fed wants a melt-up.
Equities vs. Implied Volatility: Fear Is Dissipating, Prices Moving Back Up [View article]
"the U.S. economy hasn't double-dipped (in fact it is doing better than expected)".
Please tell me whose expectation you are referring to, what that expectation was, and how it the economy is doing "better" than said expectation.
My understanding of the GDP release last week was that it came in lower than "expected". My understanding is that the ECRI index is pointing overwhelmingly to performance that is going to be worse than "expected". Enlighten me.
Regarding the assertion that "Europe didn't melt down", a more accurate way to say it is that "Europe hasn't melted down yet".
The U.S. may still have a triple-A rating, but its citizens aren't doing quite as well; 25% of Americans have a credit score below 600, up from just 15% before the recession. The spike represents a serious impediment to economic recovery. [View news story]
You can argue that the scoring methods are flawed, but you cannot argue that the scores are meaningless. People take for granted that they can buy everything and anything on credit, from $5 items to $500,000 items. Your score is everything when the credit risk model is run at the time of your credit application.
The U.S. may still have a triple-A rating, but its citizens aren't doing quite as well; 25% of Americans have a credit score below 600, up from just 15% before the recession. The spike represents a serious impediment to economic recovery. [View news story]
1. For how long is it reasonable to use the word "recovery"? At some point, I would think it's simply the new normal.
2. I'm guessing the TCRP (Troubled Credit Relief Program) is probably in the works. Not sure what it will look like exactly, but I'm reasonably sure it will be the taxpayers paying to rescue themselves with their own money, while providing profits for the big banks in the process.
While long-term damage from the BP spill is "unknowable" only three months after the blowout, it looks increasingly like the "greater environmental catastrophe in U.S. history" talk was exaggerated. Or is it a government cover-up? [View news story]
Tack wrote: "Do you have any idea how big that body of water is and how fast that oil will dissipate in the tropical sun and water temperatures in the upper 80's?"
Upper 80's? At the surface sure. But the energy of the sun is absorbed at the surface so you go a few hundred meters down and it's freezing. Just because BP understated the underwater plumes (as they did the size of the leak from day 1) doesn't mean they aren't there.
The impact of the dispersants is another question altogether. So again, how willing would you be to go to your back door, cast a line and catch your dinner?
While long-term damage from the BP spill is "unknowable" only three months after the blowout, it looks increasingly like the "greater environmental catastrophe in U.S. history" talk was exaggerated. Or is it a government cover-up? [View news story]
Tell you what - go catch a fish in that water, cook it, eat it, and then get back to me.
Women can save Wall Street, Paul Farrell says, slamming the "little boys inhabiting the brains of Blankfein, Paulson, Summers, Bernanke, Geithner and all the other so-called leaders whose secret, collective death-wish is taking America down with their childish games... Too much testosterone is killing our world." [View news story]
With news that the deficit will top $1.4T again this year and next, Derek Thompson looks at debt-to GDP and says this isn't your grandfather's burden: former heavy indebtedness was caused by wars or recessions that came to an end, but now it's about inside factors (promises to seniors made years ago). [View news story]
I think in general I agree with your posts but I would challenge you here.
What is the basis of measurement when you say $50 trillion, what is the trend, and are you confident in what you see in the United States of America? Individual states are flat out broke (the parasites, i.e. public sector unions and staff, are consuming the hosts). Furthermore I think there has been a shift away from value-add products and new innovations and technologies. These things are being replaced by non-value-add "financial services" as GDP drivers. So basically instead of leading the way in technologies, you are leading the way in new and innovative ways to generate wealth and profits from the manipulation of financial instruments.
I think you have completely discounted the fact that other countries have either caught up or are catching up. So be careful in how confident you are about the entitled wealth of future generations.
At the close: Dow +1.66% to 10152. S&P +1.66% to 1065. Nasdaq +1.65% to 2154.
Treasurys: 30-year -1.72%. 10-yr -0.8%. 5-yr -0.47%.
Commodities: Crude +2.78% to $75.40. Gold +0.16% to $1239.70.
Currencies: Euro +0.14% vs. dollar. Yen -1.18%. Pound -0.09%. [View news story]
Why the Market Will Keep Falling [View article]
We're burned out: The first drop in worker productivity in 18 months may be a sign that employees are finally stretched too thin, Paul La Monica says - meaning that companies may no longer be able to rely on cutting costs, particularly through layoffs, to juice profits. [View news story]
Ravenswood Bank of Chicago closes, the 109th FDIC-insured bank failure of 2010, at an estimated resolution cost to the DIF of $68.1M. [View news story]
Market recap: Buyers returned to the market late in the day, and stocks pared most of their losses after the weak jobs report raised concerns about a slow economy. Health care and consumer staples were among the leading sectors, while financials lagged. NYSE decliners led advancers three to two. Yields on the 10-year Treasury fell to 2.826%, lowest since April 2009. [View news story]
Market recap: Stocks rose after reports on private sector hiring and the services industry provided reassurances that the economy continues to grow. Consumer discretionary stocks led gainers, with Priceline (PCLN +22.2%) surging to a 10-year high after a huge earnings beat. The dollar rose, Treasurys finished lower, and NYSE advancers beat decliners two to one. [View news story]
If the answers come back "minimum wage summer student restaurant jobs, and about half the number of summer jobs that would be created if things were better", I don't really see any reason for excitement. But then, details tend to be sketchy when the Fed wants a melt-up.
Equities vs. Implied Volatility: Fear Is Dissipating, Prices Moving Back Up [View article]
Please tell me whose expectation you are referring to, what that expectation was, and how it the economy is doing "better" than said expectation.
My understanding of the GDP release last week was that it came in lower than "expected". My understanding is that the ECRI index is pointing overwhelmingly to performance that is going to be worse than "expected". Enlighten me.
Regarding the assertion that "Europe didn't melt down", a more accurate way to say it is that "Europe hasn't melted down yet".
Warning Signs Suggest Market Headed for Another Collapse [View article]
Easily one of the dumbest conclusions and pointless statements I have ever seen.
I liked the article and the analysis and now follow the author.
The U.S. may still have a triple-A rating, but its citizens aren't doing quite as well; 25% of Americans have a credit score below 600, up from just 15% before the recession. The spike represents a serious impediment to economic recovery. [View news story]
The U.S. may still have a triple-A rating, but its citizens aren't doing quite as well; 25% of Americans have a credit score below 600, up from just 15% before the recession. The spike represents a serious impediment to economic recovery. [View news story]
2. I'm guessing the TCRP (Troubled Credit Relief Program) is probably in the works. Not sure what it will look like exactly, but I'm reasonably sure it will be the taxpayers paying to rescue themselves with their own money, while providing profits for the big banks in the process.
While long-term damage from the BP spill is "unknowable" only three months after the blowout, it looks increasingly like the "greater environmental catastrophe in U.S. history" talk was exaggerated. Or is it a government cover-up? [View news story]
Upper 80's? At the surface sure. But the energy of the sun is absorbed at the surface so you go a few hundred meters down and it's freezing. Just because BP understated the underwater plumes (as they did the size of the leak from day 1) doesn't mean they aren't there.
The impact of the dispersants is another question altogether. So again, how willing would you be to go to your back door, cast a line and catch your dinner?
While long-term damage from the BP spill is "unknowable" only three months after the blowout, it looks increasingly like the "greater environmental catastrophe in U.S. history" talk was exaggerated. Or is it a government cover-up? [View news story]
Women can save Wall Street, Paul Farrell says, slamming the "little boys inhabiting the brains of Blankfein, Paulson, Summers, Bernanke, Geithner and all the other so-called leaders whose secret, collective death-wish is taking America down with their childish games... Too much testosterone is killing our world." [View news story]
With news that the deficit will top $1.4T again this year and next, Derek Thompson looks at debt-to GDP and says this isn't your grandfather's burden: former heavy indebtedness was caused by wars or recessions that came to an end, but now it's about inside factors (promises to seniors made years ago). [View news story]
What is the basis of measurement when you say $50 trillion, what is the trend, and are you confident in what you see in the United States of America? Individual states are flat out broke (the parasites, i.e. public sector unions and staff, are consuming the hosts). Furthermore I think there has been a shift away from value-add products and new innovations and technologies. These things are being replaced by non-value-add "financial services" as GDP drivers. So basically instead of leading the way in technologies, you are leading the way in new and innovative ways to generate wealth and profits from the manipulation of financial instruments.
I think you have completely discounted the fact that other countries have either caught up or are catching up. So be careful in how confident you are about the entitled wealth of future generations.
European Stress Tests: Faked, And Not Very Well [View article]
The stress tests were rubbish and everybody knows it, but not everybody is willing to acknowledge it today. Let's see what happens on Monday.