Seeking Alpha

andrew.rosanes'  Instablog

Send Message
An investment analyst
View andrew.rosanes' Instablogs on:
  • Philippines : Mimicking The 2007 Bubble

    The Philippines for the past month has been attracting lot of waves recently. Economist and Fundamental analyst were saying the market is in major growth where is trend shift of paradigm that is building up. Here and there, news flow information were saying Billionaire's are set on expanding there businesses, Sectors such as food, banks, power and infrastructures. Lots of foreign fund managers going in, stock that are up 50% for past 3 months had been going placement. Lots of IPO's recently such as Philippines Savings Bank (PBB), Asia United Bank (AUB), Melco Crown Philippines (MCP), and the recent introductory listing Del Monte Philippines, where now they are all by battered selling. The crowd last month was astronomically hype up where everybody wants to be in the stock market, the crowd mentality was eurphoric. I am afterall was guilty also to be one of the person that is bullish. Once extreme selling has occurred, market participants are awakened to what's happening and so Iam now negatively bias. As I consult the chart, I saw a pattern that is evolving. The recent selloff that occur in world market was catastrophic, and PSE was not one of the them that standoff from the crowd. The warning that alarmed of withdrawing liquidity in US, the abenomics that is now would be doomed to fail is now in question. Would technicals discount all this scenarios that is happening? I discovered in the chart that there is time price cycle for bull and bear markets. Bull markets in Philippines lasted for about 4 - 5 years span based on just this data. The recovery that it did in year 09 was fast recovery and maybe premature because of money printing. My count on the end of the bull market would hold if PSE would be down for a week and a steep rally is expected to a new high of pending 2 months, thus the end of bull market would reinforce. Fundamentals would argue that there maybe a trend shift paradigm that would take place and emerging market takes the lead for a super bull run, another five years maybe. Maybe I hope so, Im still holding some issues of mine but that is not the case that happen in 07. Happy trading to us whatever happens.

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Jun 13 10:57 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Casino Sector - Game Changer - Trade The Perception Not The Reality

    As of now Im writing this to those small investor of how you outperform the market using weekly charts as your tool. as of now bloom and bel broke out of the base. The fundamental from top down to bottom up is in play. Tax is given minimal here so big casino's decide to build the businesses here. technical chart shows these babies are pose lets say maybe 20 - 30% upside for bloom. for the bel moving the script of the story remains beautiful. Buy for the small investor and beat the mutual fund.

    Feb 28 8:09 PM | Link | Comment!
  • BW Philippines Most Popular Stock Of All Time (POPULAR IN 1990's :) A History Of Charts :)

    BW was a hot stock in 1990's. Its was very known stock way back because they were planning a world class casino in Roxas boulevard, One of the backers of development was rumoured to be Stanley Ho, chinese mogul billionaire. But I dont know what happen but they didnt pursue their plan. I was still maybe 10 years old when this move started from a centavo ish stock until it hit 100 pesos for just a year. Wohoo! a millionaire if you are a good trader with good risk management.

    I'll share you this stock because this is every traders dream to trade this in uptrend and short it in downtrend. And maybe you can learn a part of investors psychology of greed and fear. After all prices are just made in the end not by fundamentals but what the participants thinks what its worth. Heres the record that I pulled of. by the way Im not sure if this is the chart of BW but I think it is, BW now in ticker named SUN.


    (click to enlarge)BW MONTHLY CHART


    (click to enlarge)BW WEEKLY


    (click to enlarge)BW DAILY

    BW DAILY 1

    (click to enlarge)BW DAILY 1

    BW DAILY 2

    (click to enlarge)BW DAILY 2

    BW DAILY 3

    (click to enlarge)BW Exhaustion

    Dec 21 3:40 AM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.