Muzie

History Says That We'll Be Fine

Amazingly the commenters unknowingly reaffirm the author's arguments: "Everyone was predicting the fall of America in each one of these time periods.".

Is everyone so blind to not realize that all the bears are now left cherry-picking very specific examples to support their case? Like Haskell over here, picking this one period of no returns - and failing to mention a position in cash from 1966-1994 would have given an inflation-adjusted LOSS.

The national sport is now to compare this with what is now the ONLY worst stock market crash in history, the great depression. And somehow nobody sees how for this one case there are the 99% of other cases where did NOT go down in flames.

Thanks to the author - it's a welcome commentary. I've been short or out of US equities most of the year thankfully, but I wouldn't go as far as try to rely on the downfall of the US to try to support my investment case here.

To the other commenters: the choice is yours. You can either participate in this economy and produce meaningful economic output by working and invest in its talent.

Or you can sit aside, put 100% of your productive capacity in a completely non-productive asset such as gold, and step aside with your arms crossed with the hope the world burns. Just keep in mind the reason we are in this mess is because we allocated two much of our productive GDP to non-productive levered assets (real estate). Gold isn't any better. You are part of the problem, not the solution.

What Will Happen to Gaming in the Current Turmoil?

I would agree.

But P/E compression can throw a kink into any fundamental analysis.

An End-of-Quarter Dollar Rally in Face of Bailout Drama

"To stabilize the market, the Fed must shock the markets." Did you actually read yourself.

Please, dear God, no more "stabilization". Can't take more of these 5% swings that in the end finish up with 2% weekly losses.

Message to Fed: "Just Keep The F*** Out."

Gold Price and Gold Volatility

"I buy banks because I get a very good service from them. I buy AAPL because people buy iphones, ipods and macs. I buy SBUX because I like their coffee. I buy steel because it builds my offices. I buy BA because I fly frequently and they make them. I buy oil because it makes my car go places. I buy pharma because their products cure. I buy WMT because they sell a bunch of stuff that people buy. I buy some utilities cause we need electricity."

Maybe you should look at the performance of each and everry one of the investments you've mentioned. Perhaps it will tell you something about the relevance of your strategy.

I'll take a "no future" holding over a "we priced the future in it forty times already" investment any day of the week.

Is This a Permanent or Temporary Loss of Capital?

And so again careless bottom catchers are burned for believing stock markets always go up.

Perhaps Mr. Helfert can recycle this article. He'll just need to correct one sentence as follows:

"On Monday, September 15, 2008, the U.S. stock market had its worst day since the terrorist attacks of 2001."

change to :

"On Monday, September 29, 2008, the U.S. stock market had its worst day since the market crash of 1987."

There is some merit to Mr. Helfert's ideas, but one does not cross the train track when the train siren is still blowing.

LDK Solar: Now Bottoming?

Comments here are well reflective of this market environment: nobody's bothering to actually analyze any actual ideas, everybody instead relying on one-sentence drivel (CWolfe: "You made a typo so I just stopped reading", K. Bofah: "Oil is going down and I only buy what is going up so I didn't read it either")

Relief Rally Likely in Wake of Bailout Legislation

N.B. I meant 4000$ per citizen.

Relief Rally Likely in Wake of Bailout Legislation

"$1.1 Trillion in lost market cap today .. so the arguing over a $700 billion package /loan cost the country an extra $400 billion on top of the $700 billion we needed . "

What a bullshit argument.

So if the market climbs back up 8% next week did the 1.1T$ "reappear" out of thin air? And the next week it goes down, it's gone again? And so forth? Look at how well the SEC added trillions to our nation's "wealth" when it banned the shorts - does that count too?

Anyone basing daily market gyrations has arguments for the bailout is a moron. If the bailout package is signed this is 4000$ REAL MONEY, taxed now or in the future. Not some bullshit spinning of electronic stock tickers based on skittish traders throwing their fists on the eject button.

Opportunities Buried Beneath the Headlines

Ah, almost the optimist.

Yet, look at that period from 65 to 85. Nothing happened. During those years, an investor could have spent, drunk or otherwise enjoyed the use of his money but instead watched his investments go nowhere for 20 years, hoping for a return that never came. All along living with visceral swings.

What B of A Gets by Passing on Lehman & Gobbling Up Merrill

The value of the deal appears to have dropped by 4B$ today...

Financial Sector Breakout?

Well I guess that didn't happen huh...

Regional Banks: Sensible Choice For Shifting Financial Landscape

This author has obviously not researched any of these stocks in depth. The entirety of the research can be summed up in the sentence "shed a nice dividend that appears supported, trade at a decent volume per day and have a successful niche market, excellent management, or both, indicating hope for future prosperity."

Follow his advice at your own peril.

Options Trader: Friday Outlook

Your analysis is crap.

Business consume a lot of the oil, not just businesses, so just taking us oil consumption and dividing by families is just dumb.

Thank China and Gustav for Lower Oil

Come on Mish, supply & demand doesn't move oil prices 50% for 3 months than down then down 25% in 3 months. There's speculation going on both to the upside and the downside, and price discovery isn't sticking to any real fundamentals at the moment.

Liquidity (Literally)

Great points, najdorf.