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bbarberayr

bbarberayr
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  • Assured Guaranty - Aggressive Stock Buyback Will Reward Long-Term Investors [View article]
    I have a lot more faith in the management of AGO than MBIA as they avoided the traps that MBIA and the others fell into and avoided most of the major losses from the financial crisis.

    Perhaps MBIA is good now, with a tailwind at the industry's back, but with insurance, you want conservative management, and AGO seems better. And if it is a similar valuation as Tim says (I haven't looked), I think you just want to just stick with AGO.
    Nov 23, 2014. 03:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Assured Guaranty - Aggressive Stock Buyback Will Reward Long-Term Investors [View article]
    Thanks for the article.

    In AGO, you have an obviously undervalued stock on many metrics with the stock price being kept down due to the perception of higher risk. But the reality is all of the major issues (Detroit, Stockton, Harrisburg, Alabama, etc.) have been settled with just Puerto Rico outstanding, so once this is settled, there will be no major outstanding claim issues, and there is unlikely to be new ones with the overall economy improving and states/municipalities benefitting.

    I suspect that once the perception of risk is lowered, people will focus on the undervaluation and bid the stock up.
    Nov 19, 2014. 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Lundin Has Already Raised All The Cash It Needs For The La Candelaria Acquisition [View article]
    The Lundin's are smart guys and want to be the next major mine company.

    Let's hope they were right with their time and price of this purchase.
    Oct 28, 2014. 07:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terravest Capital: A Cheap Mini-Conglomerate [View article]
    Thanks for the article. It's an interesting, but ignored company.

    Seems to have a good set of management and shareholder focus, so baring a crash in energy prices, should do well.
    Sep 24, 2014. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ashford Hospitality Trust: A Strong Yield Play In Lodging [View article]
    The other thing to remember is AHT sold 8 million shares at $10.70 back in April.

    I think this was to fund the expected spinout of the property management business, but still, AHT obviously doesn't think selling shares at $10.70 is a bad thing and now the stock is higher.

    They have been quite astute buyers and sellers of stock and bought cheap back in the financial crisis, so the fact that they sold here is worth paying attention to.

    I am long AHT and the AHP which was spunout to me and think the cycle has legs, but don't think that I would buy more at the current price.
    Aug 27, 2014. 07:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Insurance [View article]
    I think if we see interest rates start to rise, you will see more attention on the life insurance space as a way to play this and, after people look past the PRU's and MET's of the world, AEG will rate very highly from a value perspective.
    Jul 9, 2014. 01:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In Insurance [View article]
    A lot of European companies allow dividends to be paid with stock. It helps avoid taxes and they generally repurchase the issued shares so the total shares outstanding does not change.
    Jul 9, 2014. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • National Security Group: After Years Of Difficulty, This Insurer Is Turning The Corner [View article]
    I have worked personally with the claims department at NSEC and they understand their business very well and how to control costs. Unfortunately, as you write, they had a series of bad events hit them on a much more regular basis than should be expected over the last several years.

    I have decided not to invest as I question the ability of a small insurer like NSEC to compete against much larger competitors with the high technology investment required in financial services these days. But they do have a good niche (sub $100K houses and mobile homes) that a lot of the guys like State Farm interested in.

    I hope they do well.
    Apr 14, 2014. 08:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weight Watchers: Excellent Business At A Fire Sale Price [View article]
    The other problem WTW has is their paid internet experience is worse than the one provided by free apps like myfitnesspal.

    WTW should have been ahead of fhe curve on this and weren't. Not a sign of strong management.
    Mar 30, 2014. 08:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Says To Disregard Macro Opinions? [View instapost]
    I think that Buffet is mostly correct about ignoring the macro, but you are right that in 2008 it did matter. I suspect that now we have gone through this (hopefully) once-in-a-lifetime scenario, that it will be off the radar for another 70 years.

    The other nuance to Buffet is that he says to ignore the macro, but he kind of gets a read through on the macro by judging individual company stock prices and business prospects.
    Mar 2, 2014. 08:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Note To John Hussman [View instapost]
    Good for you. I think it will mainly just be some weekend hiking around Ontario for me this year. We are also planning on going to Lake Placid this summer and doing day hikes - I hear they have a great variety of trails with nice views.

    Good luck with you hike - don't forget to keep eating ice cream before you go!
    Feb 28, 2014. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Note To John Hussman [View instapost]
    Here is one well-written article which you may not have seen which talks about why CAPE may have changed permanently:

    http://bit.ly/18GROXs
    Feb 28, 2014. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Note To John Hussman [View instapost]
    Hussman and a lot of the perma-bears have gotten way too hung up on the Schiller CAPE and it didn't work this time. Many articles have been written to suggest why, but reality is that it hasn't. Hussman's Strategic Growth flagship fund is now back under its IPO price after 13 years.

    Hussman also seems to cherrypick stats to support his position (a thing almost everyone does), but he seems to be blind to the stats supporting the bullish view.

    Too bad, because he seems like a nice person, but really not worth reading for a few years now.
    Feb 27, 2014. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse: A Rogue Bank [View article]
    AGO's claim against CS revived:

    http://yhoo.it/1hsUz50
    Feb 27, 2014. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allot, Procera keep rising after net neutrality verdict; will others benefit? [View news story]
    Canadian company Sandvine (SVC.TO) is probably the market leader in this space and showing strong revenue and profit growth.

    "As a result of our success, Infonetics Research once again named Sandvine as the leader in our market."
    Jan 15, 2014. 01:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
156 Comments
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