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  • Jinpan International's Q3 Performance Proves Buy-Out Offer Is Below Fair Value And Inequitable To Shareholders  [View article]
    Only trading at $5.25, so seems to be a good amount of skepticism even this bid goes through. So I think people will be happy to take the $6.00 and move on, assuming the bid isn't pulled again. Nothing is indicating we get up to double digits.
    Jan 26, 2016. 08:39 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jinpan International's Q3 Performance Proves Buy-Out Offer Is Below Fair Value And Inequitable To Shareholders  [View article]
    Buyout this morning at $6.00.
    Jan 25, 2016. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Could Have Been $200 In 2008; Might Reach $20 In 2016  [View article]
    No I don't. I used to pay attention to it, but if I was going to go for a service company, I think I'd go for a driller with a better balance sheet.
    Jan 5, 2016. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Could Have Been $200 In 2008; Might Reach $20 In 2016  [View article]
    The thing I keep thinking about with the energy companies is when and how fast the price of oil bounces.

    The big, integrated ones like XOM haven't really pulled back that much compared to the price of oil, probably because their refining operations are taking advantage of the low oil price to increase margins.

    If you look at the E&P space, especially the smaller companies, many of these are down 75% or more. These will have much more torque to the upside should we see a strong bounce in the oil price. I own a number of Canadian ones, but in the US, the XOP (E&P Producers ETF) is down almost 65% from its highs.

    The Oil services companies have also been hit hard - the OIH (Energy Services ETF) is down a similar amount.

    So, if the price of energy does stay down a long time, I'd say your best bet is the XOM and CVX's of the world as they can make reasonable profits and pay dividends and did well through the last energy down period in the 1980's and 1990's. But if we do see a faster move back up in energy, you will get a much better return in these riskier, smaller companies.
    Jan 5, 2016. 09:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kansas City Life: Going Private Arbitrage  [View instapost]
    Got my cash this morning!
    Dec 22, 2015. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kansas City Life: Going Private Arbitrage  [View instapost]
    Anyone see the cash in their account yet? The KCLI stock is locked in my TD Canada Account and can't be traded, but no $52.50 yet.

    Let us know when you get your money.
    Dec 18, 2015. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kansas City Life: Going Private Arbitrage  [View instapost]
    Generally in these arb type situations, you see the money in a few days, although when you call the broker, they will say 2 weeks to be safe.

    This situation is a bit of a different one as not everyone is being bought out unlike a traditional buyout situation, but I'm pretty confident we have the money next week.
    Dec 16, 2015. 07:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Kansas City Life: Going Private Arbitrage  [View instapost]
    Judging by the buying today (all small purchases and a number for 249), it was people buying with the thought they'd be able to cash them in for the $52.50.
    Dec 16, 2015. 04:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Owning Stocks Today 6% Annualized Is A Realistic Long-Term Expectation  [View instapost]
    Agree. You have to know why a strategy is working, otherwise it is too easy to fall into the trap of making patterns where there are none.

    Coming from insurance and having some background in stats and actuarial is great for understanding these types of things.
    Dec 15, 2015. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kansas City Life: Going Private Arbitrage  [View instapost]
    Vote today at 10:00 Kansas City time, 100:00 EST.

    No news yet, but can't see the vote as being an issue. Should be a press release and SEC filing later today.
    Dec 15, 2015. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Owning Stocks Today 6% Annualized Is A Realistic Long-Term Expectation  [View instapost]
    Jesse Livermore had a great article this week on backtesting ad how things that look like strong correlations are really just the laws of probability - http://bit.ly/1Yh2ipR

    So reminded me of Hussman and why his approach doesn't work. You can't just pick some stats that worked in the past and expect them to work going forward.
    Dec 15, 2015. 08:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Owning Stocks Today 6% Annualized Is A Realistic Long-Term Expectation  [View instapost]
    Good article Tom. 6% going forward is a pretty decent market return looking at the alternatives and hopefully we can beat that with better stock picking.

    I also thought I was pretty much the only one who was still fully invested in the market. Most people I talk with have a lot of cash, but good to hear you feel confident enough to go to the 90% level.
    Dec 14, 2015. 08:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fly Leasing Is Ready To Take Off  [View article]
    BBAM is owned by Canadian private equity form ONEX. They generally like Aerospace and would be a good candidate to buy out FLY, given the relationship and the cash flows generated by FLY.
    Nov 27, 2015. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jinpan International's Q3 Performance Proves Buy-Out Offer Is Below Fair Value And Inequitable To Shareholders  [View article]
    Same thing going on with Chinese Auto Parts company SORL - p/e less than 4, stock had a recent pullback and management offering to buy at prices below where it has traded most of the last 3 years.

    These seem like unethical, opportunist, but not illegal offers, so hopefully we all just say no and the market for these types of stocks improves over time.
    Nov 25, 2015. 09:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fly Leasing Is Ready To Take Off  [View article]
    The nice thing about no dividend is there will no longer be Irish withholding taxes and you only pay capital gains tax at the time of sale.

    I do wonder what the plan going forward is - the $100 million buyback offsets about 2.5 years worth of dividends, so another buyback or more plane purchases or something else?
    Nov 25, 2015. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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