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alexlega

alexlega
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  • Amarin Investors Should Avoid The Bullish Speculation [View article]
    You guys are getting all excited at this article and Quoth is not even responding to you. He will most likely brush everybody off.

    The article is a bear thesis and has some points. However, as JesseL mentioned (hi Jesse, I miss your posts on the other board!), the company made a good decision by going for a self launch (even though I was hoping for a BO myself).

    Something Quoth failed to mention is the flawed nature of the study on Omega 3 in his article. The lack of improvement in CV events is exactly what Amarin is addressing with the Reduce-it study (which is costing a pretty penny and explains part of the cash burn in 1Q13). The counterpoint to this study is (guess what...) Jelis.

    In addition, patients are getting their blood work done now. Results will eb out and as the previous poster mentioned (congrats on your results!) people like him can see an immediate improvement over Lovaza (and the likes). The word will spread, internet will help and another population will jump on the bandwagon soon enough (diabetics). When we reach this tipping point, if we reach it, shorts are likely to be steamroller

    Lastly, Amarin's CEO went on record at the ConfCall saying the 1Q13 was an expensive one for the company and that the cash burn should improve going forward.

    By the way Quoth, there is an excellent article by Propthink on Amarin that suggests an upcoming run-up due to near term catalysts. You may want to reconsider your bearish stance should we see this happening (and I guess the combo results will be the start of a possible uptrend)

    Good luck to all and may us Longs prevail! ;)
    Jun 13 07:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull, Bear, Or Indifferent: Profiting From Amarin's Latest [View article]
    Good article showing the anatomy of the Amarin trade.

    I can't help thinking we could see a run-up in price in the same fashion as what we have seen going into P3 of Anchor in mid 2011.

    My rationale is that the FDA has approved the NDA filing and that the combo results could be the equivalent of the 8th April '11 news with regard to Apo-CIII. At that time, the APO C3 news fueled the Anchor P3 results run-up.
    We could see a similar price action when we get combo results if they are positive. Then a run-up into Adcomm or PDUFA if no Adcomm. (good for my calls!)

    Despite the recent weakness because of the self launch and the absence of Buyout/Partnership news, this company is still very interesting.
    The off label use of Vascepa could benefit various populations (including diabetics) and the addition of a combo statin+vascepa to the line-up could make this company a real money printing machine. That is of course, if the competition doesn't try to sabotage them along the way...

    At a personal level I would like to get some clarification on the supply chain:
    - How does the BASF/Pronova acquisition practically benefit Amarin? (the CEO said it can bring COGS down, ok : explain by how much and how now please...) and what is the exact contractual relationship between Amarin and BASF now?
    - When is the French based supplier going to come online and what is the expected annual output capacity?
    Jun 12 06:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    Amarin is going thermonuclear on GSK here. Quite daring for a biotech! wondering what is brewing at GSK. Lovaza's website is still down and Vascepa's launch is tomorrow...
    Jan 27 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    Hi Steve, when you say a BO was (and may still be) imminent. What is this based on and what's your take on the share price in case of a BO? Looking at the latest info from the additional supplier it is quite bullish. The French company Novasep is willing to put $40m on the line to build, own and operate a facility designed to support a "pre-revenue" biotech company like Amarin... Have you seen signs of the salesforce being hired already? (no PR issued). Thanks for your input.
    Jan 10 04:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: The Basics, Pros, Cons, The Whole Scoop [View article]
    Joe Z used to work at Orbimed. I suppose he may have acquired some of their "DNA" while he was there. I believe a fund manager would like to see the company acquired instead of seeing it going it alone or partnering (unless the partnership leads to a higher valuation or higher B/O price). Just my take.
    Oct 9 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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