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  • UPS (UPS -0.4%) releases its shipping rates for 2013 with an increase of 4.5% in all UPS Air services and a 4.9% hike for UPS Ground services on tap. One of the first questions traders will ask is if Amazon (AMZN +2%) will take the hit to margins or find a way to pass on the additional costs.  [View news story]
    FedEx and will never merge. USPS uses Amtrak to move alot of it's mail freight as well.
    Nov 19, 2012. 04:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon And Its Indefensible Valuation  [View article]
    It is very apparent that AMZN is resorting to "buying" it's growth via acquisitions. It is a 15 year old company, not a new growth company.
    Nov 1, 2012. 06:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Got Another Pass  [View article]
    That pretty much sums it up. Let me make it a bit simpler. Amazon is selling more stuff and losing money doing it.

    Pretty smart business model. (I am being facetious here.)

    The smarter business model is the one in which Bezos has been able to convince Wall Street to invest billions of dollars in a 300 p/e stock when the company can't make money after 15 years of operations. To convince investors that buying and holding very expensive stock in a company losing money is the stuff of genius I guess...or somewhat psychopathic!
    Oct 29, 2012. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Are The Robots?  [View article]
    I have posted numerous times on a method to short AMZN. Once again:

    Short the calls, far out into the future. You can short out as far as Jan 2015. I suggested using the 280 strike (Goldman Sachs current price target) and start with 1 or 2 contracts, leaving yourself room to short more if the stock rises higher.

    Collect the premium and sit back and wait for the fall.

    Should the stock rise, use some of the premium to buy calls at a lower strike (hedge) and capitalize on them during the spikes. (You will need level 4 options approval to do this) Should the stock look like it will blow through 280 make sure to buy the stock (if you get called) or be prepared to be short the stock at 280 plus whatever premium you collect. by Jan 2015.

    I still contend that there is not enough buying interest for these big huge holders to get out of the stock so it's basically being propped up by computers trading to keep it somewhat supported. Some awfully big money is trapped up here, because the little guy isn't buying.
    Oct 16, 2012. 11:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Still Has Substantial Growth Potential  [View article]
    The way I see it is AMZN is selling more and more things, but losing money doing it. How is that true growth?

    How is that worth a p/e of over 300? The forward p/e is over 100 and that is blue sky..all hype with no substance. The true substance lies in the facts. In AMZN's case the facts don't add up to the current stock price. It will take substantial growth of a 15 year old company to even BEGIN to grow into it's current valuation...IF it ever can. It's only chance is if they annihilate the majority of brick and mortar retail stores, and then watch what AMZN does with their pricing.

    AMZN's competition is large, and they are all fighting back.

    Bottom line, AMZN is gamed by Wall Street. Currently not enough buyers for the big institutions to sell their massive positions into, so the hype must be continued to allure buyers in. Computers trade to keep it propped up until some large holder heads for the door first. Then look out below.

    I believe the game is just about up.

    Furthermore, AMZN in my opinion is unAmerican. They are slowing putting brick and mortar stores out of business (stores that actually hire people and offer benefits, and real life social communities). AMZN has bought a robotic company so they can use more machines instead of people.

    I REFUSE to shop at AMZN, and am back to supporting local businesses that provide jobs for people.
    Oct 15, 2012. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Taste Some Of Its Own Venom?  [View article]
    Did you notice that AMZN is makin 13% loans to some of it's vendors? That's one way to get margins up.
    Sep 27, 2012. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Taste Some Of Its Own Venom?  [View article]

    Did you see that AMZN is making 13% loans to customers now?
    Sep 27, 2012. 09:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Are Not's Only Problem  [View article]

    I posted on a different article regarding AMZN's payables. Watch the aging of the payables closely. I recall back in 2004 or so the analysts used to hone in on that. AMZN had been stringing out their payables a considerable number of days. I can't recall exactly the number but it was 120 to 180ish. At any rate it was a sign to me that they were using their customers "cash". It is never a sign of economic strength when a company resorts to such borderline ethical practices.

    I am not sure of the current aging of AMZN payables, but it is worth keeping an eye on.
    Sep 26, 2012. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Amazon: What You Really Need To Know  [View article]
    Amazon has been growing alright! They have been growing their liabiities! Look at these numbers..geez Historical Liabilities Data
    Pro Data Export
    Dates: to

    Data for this Date Range

    June 30, 2012


    March 31, 2012


    Dec. 31, 2011


    Sept. 30, 2011


    June 30, 2011


    March 31, 2011


    Dec. 31, 2010


    Sept. 30, 2010


    June 30, 2010


    March 31, 2010


    Dec. 31, 2009


    Sept. 30, 2009


    June 30, 2009


    March 31, 2009


    Dec. 31, 2008


    Sept. 30, 2008


    June 30, 2008


    March 31, 2008


    Dec. 31, 2007


    Sept. 30, 2007

    Sep 25, 2012. 09:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Amazon: What You Really Need To Know  [View article]
    Thank you for your reply. AMZN , in the past, had resorted to stretching their payables out to make their numbers. At one point it was nearing 180 days.The analysts used to focus on this issue ahead of earnings (back as far as 2005 & 2006) . They no longer mention anything but cash flow these days, and if payables are being stretched to enhance cash flow that would be a good reason to get out of the stock and/or not invest long at this current level.
    Sep 25, 2012. 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Amazon: What You Really Need To Know  [View article]
    What is the age of AMZN's payables? The last time I checked they were pushing payables (paying their suppliers) out almost as far as 180 days. One of AMZN's not widely discussed creative accounting moves.
    Sep 25, 2012. 12:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding Amazon: What You Really Need To Know  [View article]
    What is the average age of AMZN's payables? Are they still pushing the envelope on stretching out their payables and delaying booking the expense to camoflauge the earnings? Last time I bothered to look at AMZN's creative accounting the payables (the time AMZN takes to pay back their suppliers) were pushing 180 days. AMZN is great at creative accounting.
    Sep 25, 2012. 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Kindle Fire Is Worth The Cost, But Amazon Is Just Too Expensive  [View article]
    There has been nothing BUT chinks in the armour! AMZN is selling more things but losing more money doing it!!!!! Guidance was weak. They may slip into the red! How many more chinks are needed?

    I am not certain why the machines are running this stock so high. It is unheard of. This company has to grow earnings at 58% for over 5 years to even begin to grown into it's current valuation. Their earnings are going the wrong way. Only and Only when they are successul in cannibalizing ALL of their markets will they stand a slim chance in h*ll of ever growing into the current stock price. I suspect GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, WMT, and many other retailers, cloud providers, content and video providers, etc will maintain enough competition to prevent AMZN from EVER growing into a p/e of 310.
    Sep 7, 2012. 07:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Primed For A Big Drop As Growth Slows  [View article]
    I have but one simple question: How good is it to sell MORE things and lose money doing it?

    This is AMZN.
    Sep 4, 2012. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: No Profit Equals Sell  [View article]
    Begin shorting the calls. Take the money and buy puts far out into the future. As soon as the computers can figure out a way to dump their shares they will. Goldman has a price target of 270 on this pig so start shorting the 270 strike calls out into the future. The only way AMZN will EVER grow into it's current valuation is if it is successful in cannibalizing all other retail and then raising prices when they have full control AMZN is playing off of human natures' weakest areas, greed and laziness. They are putting many stores out of business, stores that actually provide jobs. I refuse to patronize AMZN (and I used to!) once I realized what they are doing. Jeff Bezos is running an evil company. We all need to begin a HUGE worldwide bouycott of AMZN. And I am DEAD serious on this idea.
    Aug 30, 2012. 08:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment