Amazon's Smoke And Mirrors Are Fading [View article]
The real smoke and mirrors (what I wish was known and revealed) is what exactly is going on to keep this stock price propped up at an enormous valuation NO MATTER what the company's performance is.
Is it some cronism on Wall Street to keep the stock elevated using computer trading while Bezos and his buddies contiually milk millions out of the company for their own gain? (last insider transactions check left the CFO dumpiing stock and only holding 60k shares).
The stock fails to correct, only moves higher in light of massive negatives.
Amazon's Earnings: Holiday Retail Competition And Sales Tax In Focus [View article]
AMZN has alot of profit it needs to make just to grow into it's current valuation, let alone share a similar valuation of all of it's peers.
There is a bigger story behind the real reason for AMZN's stock price ONLY consistently moving higher in spite of all negative news, decreasing earnings, an investigation into tax avoidance by the EU, and mighty competition in ALL of it's revenue streams. This stock is propped up somehow, by some form of manipulation. It just has to be. There is NO explanation for rewarding a 15 yr old company a hall pass on EVERY SINGLE fundamental expectation that all other companies are held to.
I just wish someone would uncover the REAL reason for AMZN stock only rising. The person that does uncover the truth, will become well know and instantly famous for popping a bubble that steadily feeds Jeff Bezos with billions of dollars on an unending basis.
Amazon.com's Investment In Fulfillment Can't Be Much Slower [View article]
Not to mention increasing price competition from other large retailers such as Walmart, Target, Lowes, and many many more. I just purchased a Christmas gift from Lowes and they matched AMZN's price. Not only do I get to pick up the item immediately, I have hands on customer service that guarantees an immediate resolution whether it be a return and/or replace a defective product. AMZN cannot offer this. Everything must be repackaged and returned via mail or these lockers. Again, the consumer must wait for satisfaction if there is an issue with a purchase. At some point I believe consumers will once again prefer the overall process of buying in person.
All of AMZN's revenue streams are being challenged by competition with BIG pockets. The likes of Google, Apple, Microsoft, etc.
Paulos, I appreciate all that you take the time to research and write. Please keep up the good work.
Buying Amazon With A 20-Year Horizon [View article]
"I would challenge you to come up with a scenario where Amazon ended up being threatened or seeing declines. Which company could possibly compete with Amazon in the ecommerce sphere and how? Wal-Mart and others certainly try, but they are losing ground every day and are already very far behind."
I take your challenge.
If the internet goes down or is taken down by the government for reasons of national securit and/or any reason the government deems necessary, AMAZON becomes worthless. Walmart and ALL other brick and mortars will still be operating. They don't need the internet Although many that read this will think that this is far fetched and likely won't happen, but it could. The government is beginning to meddle with websites concerning gun control etc. Look at other governments, such as Syria that have taken the internet down recently. It is truly a possibility, as our embassies around the world are under attack. Moving on....
Personally, I find what AMZN is doing alarming. They are playing on human nature (laziness and greed) to slowly eliminate stores/businesses that actually hire people, support communities and offer hands on customer service. It is sad that Borders is gone. Circuit City is gone. Barnes and Noble, whose store offer much more than a shopping experience but offer a social experience as well are challenged, etc. We all know what AMZN will do once the competition is annihilated. They will rape the consumer on prices. That is the long term plan and anyone who patronizes AMZN is adding to the demise of brick and mortar stores, the jobs they provide, the communities they enchance and support etc.
Once I became aware of the demise of so many other businesses, I closed my AMZN account and I patronize all other businesses. If I shop online I use the retailer of choice's actual website. No third party seller through AMZN.
Sorry for this morning's rant, but it's the truth.
It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]
On further thought, that is ALL AMZN can hype is it's cash flow. They can't talk about profits, Bezos himself said margins don't matter to him. They can't talk about dividends. All they can talk about is selling alot more things (revenue growth) now at a loss of margins and profits, but what great cash flow they have.
Unreal. Insane.
Bottom line. This will implode but not until they soak alot more put premium out of those that have stopped shorting the common. If you short by buying puts, buy far out into the future to give this sham time to implode. Or...short calls...far out into the future...and keep the money. That's my plan.
Pac Crest's Chad Bartley is taking a hammer to his Kindle Fire estimates after supply chain checks indicate poor demand: his Q4 sales forecast has been lowered to 6M from 8M, and his 2013 forecast to 10.5M from 12.5M. For reference, IDC expects 172.4M tablet shipments in 2013. A silver lining: since the Fire line is sold at a loss, Bartley's 2013 Amazon (AMZN +3.1%) EPS forecast has risen by $0.10 to $2.70. Reviews (I, II) for the latest Fire models were lukewarm. Is the iPad Mini hurting sales? [View news story]
I find it ironic that AMZN isn't making money, but it's CEO sure is! I noticed the CFO only holds approximately 60k shares left.
Begin shorting the calls. Take the money and buy puts far out into the future. As soon as the computers can figure out a way to dump their shares they will. Goldman has a price target of 270 on this pig so start shorting the 270 strike calls out into the future. The only way AMZN will EVER grow into it's current valuation is if it is successful in cannibalizing all other retail and then raising prices when they have full control AMZN is playing off of human natures' weakest areas, greed and laziness. They are putting many stores out of business, stores that actually provide jobs. I refuse to patronize AMZN (and I used to!) once I realized what they are doing. Jeff Bezos is running an evil company. We all need to begin a HUGE worldwide bouycott of AMZN. And I am DEAD serious on this idea.
Pac Crest's Chad Bartley is taking a hammer to his Kindle Fire estimates after supply chain checks indicate poor demand: his Q4 sales forecast has been lowered to 6M from 8M, and his 2013 forecast to 10.5M from 12.5M. For reference, IDC expects 172.4M tablet shipments in 2013. A silver lining: since the Fire line is sold at a loss, Bartley's 2013 Amazon (AMZN +3.1%) EPS forecast has risen by $0.10 to $2.70. Reviews (I, II) for the latest Fire models were lukewarm. Is the iPad Mini hurting sales? [View news story]
The problem is, the EPS on AMZN are NOT improving without their taking as much of a loss on their Kindle. This being said, AMZN lowered the price on Kindle Fire this holiday season, so their losses will be "larger" hence offseting income.
None of this matters though. Not earnings, not lack of transperacy from the CEO/CFO, not P/E, not nothing! This stock just goes higher and higher NO MATTER what.
The New Kindle Fire Is Worth The Cost, But Amazon Is Just Too Expensive [View article]
There has been nothing BUT chinks in the armour! AMZN is selling more things but losing more money doing it!!!!! Guidance was weak. They may slip into the red! How many more chinks are needed?
I am not certain why the machines are running this stock so high. It is unheard of. This company has to grow earnings at 58% for over 5 years to even begin to grown into it's current valuation. Their earnings are going the wrong way. Only and Only when they are successul in cannibalizing ALL of their markets will they stand a slim chance in h*ll of ever growing into the current stock price. I suspect GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, WMT, and many other retailers, cloud providers, content and video providers, etc will maintain enough competition to prevent AMZN from EVER growing into a p/e of 310.
The Analysts Are Starting to Get Silly [View article]
Are you going to exit your long positions in PCLN given this new development? I hope your answer is yes, if not then let's just write about what really is going on here, and ah, it has NOTHING to do with fundamentals or valuations or even technicals.
The Amazon (AMZN) bull case has pivoted to a story of margin expansion from revenue growth after the company surprised analysts with better-than-expected profit margins during Q4. A number of firms are out with price target increases, citing margin expansion as a major factor. PT hikes: Barclays to $260 from $245; JPMorgan to $333 from $245; Baird to $325 from $300; BofA to $315 from $300; Credit Suisse to $334 from $301. AMZN +8.3% premarket to $281.62. [View news story]
Ought to be some real good margin expansion with revenues slowing.
It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]
Immediately wring huge earnings? You do realize that AMZN trailing p/e is over 3,300????? It will take YEARS to grow into it's current valuation. Years of 100% growth eps is required in the face of MIGHTY competition in ALL of it's revenue streams. GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, NFLX, CMCSK, WMT, TGT, all other retailers, BBY, Costco and all wholesalers.
AMZN is spending money to BUY growth. Don't let Bezos fool you. They are struggling to keep up with their competition on each and every one of their revenue streams. AMZN is under attack and has resorted to borrowing money to buy growth. They have sacrificed margins and profits for cash flow? How is that good for the investor. Can YOU spend AMZN's cash flow? Heck NO. That cash flow benefits a few people. Bezos and the employees cashing their stock options at a very fast rate. (the CFO is cashing out and has only 50k shares remaining.) The Wall Street talking heads ranting on about the tremendous cash flow is running the stock price higher. But this won't continue forever. So those "believers" in AMZN, that think all of it's competition are going to lie down and die so AMZN can take over all markets (because they won't) need to forget about the cash flow BS, and the "investing for the future" BS, and take advantage of this inflated stock price and take your gains. AMZN high cash flow does nothing for investors other than being used to manipulate a higher stock price so these big holders of stock can unload.
Amazon's Smoke And Mirrors Are Fading [View article]
Is it some cronism on Wall Street to keep the stock elevated using computer trading while Bezos and his buddies contiually milk millions out of the company for their own gain? (last insider transactions check left the CFO dumpiing stock and only holding 60k shares).
The stock fails to correct, only moves higher in light of massive negatives.
I wish I knew how this was being accomplished.
Amazon's Earnings: Holiday Retail Competition And Sales Tax In Focus [View article]
There is a bigger story behind the real reason for AMZN's stock price ONLY consistently moving higher in spite of all negative news, decreasing earnings, an investigation into tax avoidance by the EU, and mighty competition in ALL of it's revenue streams. This stock is propped up somehow, by some form of manipulation. It just has to be. There is NO explanation for rewarding a 15 yr old company a hall pass on EVERY SINGLE fundamental expectation that all other companies are held to.
I just wish someone would uncover the REAL reason for AMZN stock only rising. The person that does uncover the truth, will become well know and instantly famous for popping a bubble that steadily feeds Jeff Bezos with billions of dollars on an unending basis.
This truly is insane.
Amazon.com's Investment In Fulfillment Can't Be Much Slower [View article]
All of AMZN's revenue streams are being challenged by competition with BIG pockets. The likes of Google, Apple, Microsoft, etc.
Paulos, I appreciate all that you take the time to research and write. Please keep up the good work.
Buying Amazon With A 20-Year Horizon [View article]
I take your challenge.
If the internet goes down or is taken down by the government for reasons of national securit and/or any reason the government deems necessary, AMAZON becomes worthless. Walmart and ALL other brick and mortars will still be operating. They don't need the internet Although many that read this will think that this is far fetched and likely won't happen, but it could. The government is beginning to meddle with websites concerning gun control etc. Look at other governments, such as Syria that have taken the internet down recently. It is truly a possibility, as our embassies around the world are under attack. Moving on....
Personally, I find what AMZN is doing alarming. They are playing on human nature (laziness and greed) to slowly eliminate stores/businesses that actually hire people, support communities and offer hands on customer service. It is sad that Borders is gone. Circuit City is gone. Barnes and Noble, whose store offer much more than a shopping experience but offer a social experience as well are challenged, etc. We all know what AMZN will do once the competition is annihilated. They will rape the consumer on prices. That is the long term plan and anyone who patronizes AMZN is adding to the demise of brick and mortar stores, the jobs they provide, the communities they enchance and support etc.
Once I became aware of the demise of so many other businesses, I closed my AMZN account and I patronize all other businesses. If I shop online I use the retailer of choice's actual website. No third party seller through AMZN.
Sorry for this morning's rant, but it's the truth.
It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]
Unreal. Insane.
Bottom line. This will implode but not until they soak alot more put premium out of those that have stopped shorting the common. If you short by buying puts, buy far out into the future to give this sham time to implode. Or...short calls...far out into the future...and keep the money. That's my plan.
AMZN will make me rich one day..
Pac Crest's Chad Bartley is taking a hammer to his Kindle Fire estimates after supply chain checks indicate poor demand: his Q4 sales forecast has been lowered to 6M from 8M, and his 2013 forecast to 10.5M from 12.5M. For reference, IDC expects 172.4M tablet shipments in 2013. A silver lining: since the Fire line is sold at a loss, Bartley's 2013 Amazon (AMZN +3.1%) EPS forecast has risen by $0.10 to $2.70. Reviews (I, II) for the latest Fire models were lukewarm. Is the iPad Mini hurting sales? [View news story]
Amazon's Recent Debt Issue - Some Perspective On The Curious Credit Rating Divergence [View article]
Amazon has created a tax shelter by funneling billions of dollars through Luxemborg to avoid US and European taxes. See above article.
Should AMZN be paying these taxes as opposed to avoiding them, their cash flow, earnings, and all other of it's "strengths" would not look so good.
Amazon And Its Indefensible Valuation [View article]
Amazon: No Profit Equals Sell [View article]
Pac Crest's Chad Bartley is taking a hammer to his Kindle Fire estimates after supply chain checks indicate poor demand: his Q4 sales forecast has been lowered to 6M from 8M, and his 2013 forecast to 10.5M from 12.5M. For reference, IDC expects 172.4M tablet shipments in 2013. A silver lining: since the Fire line is sold at a loss, Bartley's 2013 Amazon (AMZN +3.1%) EPS forecast has risen by $0.10 to $2.70. Reviews (I, II) for the latest Fire models were lukewarm. Is the iPad Mini hurting sales? [View news story]
None of this matters though. Not earnings, not lack of transperacy from the CEO/CFO, not P/E, not nothing! This stock just goes higher and higher NO MATTER what.
Will Amazon.com Taste Some Of Its Own Venom? [View article]
Did you see that AMZN is making 13% loans to customers now?
The New Kindle Fire Is Worth The Cost, But Amazon Is Just Too Expensive [View article]
I am not certain why the machines are running this stock so high. It is unheard of. This company has to grow earnings at 58% for over 5 years to even begin to grown into it's current valuation. Their earnings are going the wrong way. Only and Only when they are successul in cannibalizing ALL of their markets will they stand a slim chance in h*ll of ever growing into the current stock price. I suspect GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, WMT, and many other retailers, cloud providers, content and video providers, etc will maintain enough competition to prevent AMZN from EVER growing into a p/e of 310.
The Analysts Are Starting to Get Silly [View article]
The Amazon (AMZN) bull case has pivoted to a story of margin expansion from revenue growth after the company surprised analysts with better-than-expected profit margins during Q4. A number of firms are out with price target increases, citing margin expansion as a major factor. PT hikes: Barclays to $260 from $245; JPMorgan to $333 from $245; Baird to $325 from $300; BofA to $315 from $300; Credit Suisse to $334 from $301. AMZN +8.3% premarket to $281.62. [View news story]
It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]
AMZN is spending money to BUY growth. Don't let Bezos fool you. They are struggling to keep up with their competition on each and every one of their revenue streams. AMZN is under attack and has resorted to borrowing money to buy growth. They have sacrificed margins and profits for cash flow? How is that good for the investor. Can YOU spend AMZN's cash flow? Heck NO. That cash flow benefits a few people. Bezos and the employees cashing their stock options at a very fast rate. (the CFO is cashing out and has only 50k shares remaining.) The Wall Street talking heads ranting on about the tremendous cash flow is running the stock price higher. But this won't continue forever. So those "believers" in AMZN, that think all of it's competition are going to lie down and die so AMZN can take over all markets (because they won't) need to forget about the cash flow BS, and the "investing for the future" BS, and take advantage of this inflated stock price and take your gains. AMZN high cash flow does nothing for investors other than being used to manipulate a higher stock price so these big holders of stock can unload.