mslasky

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21 Comments

    • The Real Reason Behind the Global Financial Crisis [view article]
      Banning these instruments would be ineffective - someone will always figure out a another way to do it. Greed powered creativity will trump legislation. Curtailing the rights of companies to enter into contracts would be an unwarranted intrusion on a "free" market. Do the opposite - make these contracts transparent - provide a public market for them. In their public exposure, and subsequent analysis, the worst excesses will be curtailed. Moral hazard cannot be eliminated, but it can be moderated. Sep 19 06:06 AM
    • Agribusiness ETF (MOO) Stock Holdings [view article]
      Malthus' theories have finally come to fruition. Humanity has shown itself to be just like any other "animal population" - it expands to fit the food supply. Technical innovation not-with-standing, there is a maximum food production limit - the only argument is exactly when and exactly when. Jun 19 03:55 AM
    • Yara International: More Than Just Fertilizer [view article]
      Can anyone think of a catalyst to drop the value of the fertilizer sector? I haven't been able to. Despite the parabolic rise of fertilizer stocks, I'm not selling anything. I have positions in YARIY, POT, & MOO. Apr 21 09:10 AM
    • Hard Assets Investing: An Interview With Brad Zigler [view article]
      I agree that short term commodity pricing is complex, and unpredictable; but also, that malthusian pressures give a strong upward bias for the indefinite future. I agree that a portion of commodity pricing has nothing whatever to do with population pressure. But, technological improvements cannot change the fact that the present population outstrips earth's sustainable agricultural productivity, and other resources. Technological exploitation of the deeper crust, the ocean basins, or the asteroid belt, will inevitably be accompanied with much higher prices, and still the population grows. Mean reversion is mere mathematics. Without a comparable context and history, of which I propose there are none, there is no mean to revert to. When, previously in history, has the earth had this population base? When in history has technology permitted the level of use of metals and land? I say never. Thus, reversion to the mean is the wrong tool to be used to evaluate future commodity prices. I again agree with your observation about investing and straight lines - especially over short time frames. In longer time frames, short of a population implosion, I can't see any way for commodities to decline in value, especially in comparison to other types of equities. I agree that absolutes are dangerous. The conventional advice to put 5 or 10% in commodities, is way too cautious. Decisions based on commodity price performance for the last 200 years, will not, I fear, serve us well going forward. Apr 08 08:19 PM
    • Hard Assets Investing: An Interview With Brad Zigler [view article]
      Addendum: I forget to address your point about diminishing rates of growth. In the face of a constant large population base, and a diminishing supply (think metals), price pressures are more moderate than they would have been, but an implacable up-trend remains intact. Apr 08 12:07 PM
    • Hard Assets Investing: An Interview With Brad Zigler [view article]
      RE: Managing editor. Good points, but, the history, that reversion to the mean depends on, is no longer present, therefore, it's power to predict the future is invalid, in my view. Prior generations used a very small portion of earth's resources - this is no longer the case. Agriculture in particular; there's no way to manufacture more land, and arable land is diminishing, by virtue of erosion, climate change, increased climate variability (climate is reverting to the mean, the last 100 years being utterly unique), land used for dwellings, increased worldwide meat consumption, etc. I conclude agricultural prices are going up "indefinitely&quo... Non metallic minerals less so, since the supply is the entirety of the earth's crust! Statistical arguments, while valuable, are very tricky - they depend on assumptions and contexts. Are you certain your assumptions and contexts are still valid for a world of close to 7 billion people, all clamoring for 'stuff'? Apr 08 11:50 AM
    • Hard Assets Investing: An Interview With Brad Zigler [view article]
      This isn't a commodity "super cycle". It's a Malthusian fact. Human population is at an all time high, and going higher, with several billion people newly engaged in enthiastic capitalist consumption. Unless I forsee a population decline, I'm heavily overweighted commodites - permenantly. Apr 07 01:30 PM
    • Chance This Is The Bottom? Zero. [view article]
      The commodity "boom cycle", is not a normal cycle - because earth's human population is massively larger than any time in history, and getting bigger without rational restraint - "stuff" will be king, as supply is finite, and demand isn't, Been long and over weight commodities - staying that way for the remainder of my life. Politics and monetary policy are are not primary drivers in this scenario. Apr 06 07:18 AM
    • 4 Reasons Why the Visa IPO Excites [view article]
      With the prior example of Master Card's IPO, and it's outperformance to date, the VISA will not be so casually taken, and participating in the IPO (as I plan to do) is a good entry point. Mar 10 03:43 PM
    • Gold and the Dollar: Value is in the Eye of the Beholder [view article]
      Money represents the ability to "do things" and "make things". Inflation is the markets rendering judgement on the decline in relative value. Commodities in demand (needed, wanted, used....), keep their value relative to debased currencies. Complex, this isn't. We spend our money on unfunded entitlements, and on the military. This produces nothing. Not a criticism, just facts. Long Gold, long oil, long nat. gas. Not short the dollar, but will probably buy currency ETF's, funded by my USD denominated money market funds. We are traveling the road pioneered by the British Empire, circa 1914. Mar 04 06:30 PM
    • PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF: 'Optimum Yield' or Undue Risk? [view article]
      Population is 6.5 billion. Soil erosion, climate variability - there's no slack in the system. There will be famines, there will be war, agricultural commodities will be in demand (tragically, but inevitably). Past commodity performance is irrelevant as the circumstances have changed. Feb 16 04:14 PM
    • An ETF Package That Outperforms the S&P 500 [view article]
      Another take on "reversion to the mean", but 7 years is too brief for statistical comparisons and analysis. Jan 20 12:57 AM
    • Gold's Value In the 21st Century: About As Real As the Myth of El Dorado [view article]
      Things are worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it (I think that dates back to Karl Marx). The historical demand for gold remains culturally entrenched, while the supply is very limited. Ergo, it has "value". It also remains a touchstone for fiat currency discipline - print too much money and the value of gold denominated in that currency goes up. This brings up the entire issue of how to value "money" itself. A fascinating question. Aug 16 08:59 AM
    • Is This the Start of a Bear Market? [view article]
      The subprime mess is a few hundred billion - global equity valuation is tens of trillions. The magnitude of the problem is insufficient to cause a recession. This is fear overcoming greed - temporary, a buying opportunity. Jul 29 04:08 PM
    • Jim Cramer Admits To Stock Manipulation When At Hedge Fund [view article]
      Not sure if he's speaking "tongue-in-cheek, about whether he did it, or not, but it has the ring of truth, that it IS done. Mar 21 02:43 PM
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