mslasky

Agribusiness ETF (MOO) Stock Holdings

Malthus' theories have finally come to fruition. Humanity has shown itself to be just like any other "animal population" - it expands to fit the food supply. Technical innovation not-with-standing, there is a maximum food production limit - the only argument is exactly when and exactly when.

Yara International: More Than Just Fertilizer

Can anyone think of a catalyst to drop the value of the fertilizer sector? I haven't been able to. Despite the parabolic rise of fertilizer stocks, I'm not selling anything. I have positions in YARIY, POT, & MOO.

Hard Assets Investing: An Interview With Brad Zigler

I agree that short term commodity pricing is complex, and unpredictable; but also, that malthusian pressures give a strong upward bias for the indefinite future. I agree that a portion of commodity pricing has nothing whatever to do with population pressure. But, technological improvements cannot change the fact that the present population outstrips earth's sustainable agricultural productivity, and other resources. Technological exploitation of the deeper crust, the ocean basins, or the asteroid belt, will inevitably be accompanied with much higher prices, and still the population grows. Mean reversion is mere mathematics. Without a comparable context and history, of which I propose there are none, there is no mean to revert to. When, previously in history, has the earth had this population base? When in history has technology permitted the level of use of metals and land? I say never. Thus, reversion to the mean is the wrong tool to be used to evaluate future commodity prices. I again agree with your observation about investing and straight lines - especially over short time frames. In longer time frames, short of a population implosion, I can't see any way for commodities to decline in value, especially in comparison to other types of equities. I agree that absolutes are dangerous. The conventional advice to put 5 or 10% in commodities, is way too cautious. Decisions based on commodity price performance for the last 200 years, will not, I fear, serve us well going forward.

Hard Assets Investing: An Interview With Brad Zigler

Addendum: I forget to address your point about diminishing rates of growth. In the face of a constant large population base, and a diminishing supply (think metals), price pressures are more moderate than they would have been, but an implacable up-trend remains intact.

Hard Assets Investing: An Interview With Brad Zigler

RE: Managing editor. Good points, but, the history, that reversion to the mean depends on, is no longer present, therefore, it's power to predict the future is invalid, in my view. Prior generations used a very small portion of earth's resources - this is no longer the case. Agriculture in particular; there's no way to manufacture more land, and arable land is diminishing, by virtue of erosion, climate change, increased climate variability (climate is reverting to the mean, the last 100 years being utterly unique), land used for dwellings, increased worldwide meat consumption, etc. I conclude agricultural prices are going up "indefinitely". Non metallic minerals less so, since the supply is the entirety of the earth's crust! Statistical arguments, while valuable, are very tricky - they depend on assumptions and contexts. Are you certain your assumptions and contexts are still valid for a world of close to 7 billion people, all clamoring for 'stuff'?

Hard Assets Investing: An Interview With Brad Zigler

This isn't a commodity "super cycle". It's a Malthusian fact. Human population is at an all time high, and going higher, with several billion people newly engaged in enthiastic capitalist consumption. Unless I forsee a population decline, I'm heavily overweighted commodites - permenantly.

Chance This Is The Bottom? Zero.

The commodity "boom cycle", is not a normal cycle - because earth's human population is massively larger than any time in history, and getting bigger without rational restraint - "stuff" will be king, as supply is finite, and demand isn't, Been long and over weight commodities - staying that way for the remainder of my life. Politics and monetary policy are are not primary drivers in this scenario.

4 Reasons Why the Visa IPO Excites

With the prior example of Master Card's IPO, and it's outperformance to date, the VISA will not be so casually taken, and participating in the IPO (as I plan to do) is a good entry point.

Gold and the Dollar: Value is in the Eye of the Beholder

Money represents the ability to "do things" and "make things". Inflation is the markets rendering judgement on the decline in relative value. Commodities in demand (needed, wanted, used....), keep their value relative to debased currencies. Complex, this isn't. We spend our money on unfunded entitlements, and on the military. This produces nothing. Not a criticism, just facts. Long Gold, long oil, long nat. gas. Not short the dollar, but will probably buy currency ETF's, funded by my USD denominated money market funds. We are traveling the road pioneered by the British Empire, circa 1914.

PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF: 'Optimum Yield' or Undue Risk?

Population is 6.5 billion. Soil erosion, climate variability - there's no slack in the system. There will be famines, there will be war, agricultural commodities will be in demand (tragically, but inevitably). Past commodity performance is irrelevant as the circumstances have changed.

An ETF Package That Outperforms the S&P 500

Another take on "reversion to the mean", but 7 years is too brief for statistical comparisons and analysis.

Gold's Value In the 21st Century: About As Real As the Myth of El Dorado

Things are worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it (I think that dates back to Karl Marx). The historical demand for gold remains culturally entrenched, while the supply is very limited. Ergo, it has "value". It also remains a touchstone for fiat currency discipline - print too much money and the value of gold denominated in that currency goes up. This brings up the entire issue of how to value "money" itself. A fascinating question.

Is This the Start of a Bear Market?

The subprime mess is a few hundred billion - global equity valuation is tens of trillions. The magnitude of the problem is insufficient to cause a recession. This is fear overcoming greed - temporary, a buying opportunity.

Jim Cramer Admits To Stock Manipulation When At Hedge Fund

Not sure if he's speaking "tongue-in-cheek, about whether he did it, or not, but it has the ring of truth, that it IS done.

Asset Class Yield Historical Comparisons 1/94-2/07

I like your brevity. Let the data speak for itself.