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Mitch Zeitz

Mitch Zeitz
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  • Tesla: More Musings On Model S Reliability [View article]
    Alberto, thanks for having the strength to be vulnerable and share this story ; )
    Oct 9, 2015. 03:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: More Musings On Model S Reliability [View article]
    Replace "gremlins" with engine replacements and you get closer to the truth.
    Oct 9, 2015. 03:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lawyers Are Determining The Value Of BTU, ACI, And ANRZQ [View article]
    Great work, thanks for the article.
    Oct 9, 2015. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Papa John's: Great Company At A Not-So-Great Price [View article]
    Good work, I agree that they're highly overvalued for the level of income growth they have shown. I doubt that the app edge the big boys have over smaller players will be a real competitive moat for long.
    Oct 9, 2015. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Worldwide: Frightening History, But The Only Thing Scary Now Is The Upside [View article]
    While the title fell flat for me, the reasoned analysis and historical review of the company were fantastic. I've been long MWW for a couple of years and agree with most of what you say. I think when Sal Iannuzzi finally left, the company was given a chance to succeed (how on Earth did that guy ever become CEO?!?). They are very cheap by any measure and suspect that they'll be acquired soon.
    Oct 8, 2015. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PepsiCo Looks Like It Is Heading Lower [View article]
    Josh, the whole market is expensive right now, so singling out PEP seems a bit much. They are easily covering their dividends with FCF, and should hold up better than most in a recession/depression.
    Oct 8, 2015. 10:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Tesla Using Resellers In Germany? [View article]
    In regards to pumping up volume with channel stuffing, one would expect a decline in gross margins on those vehicles as the dealers will need to make their cut. It doesn't sound like the numbers you're talking about are large enough to make a real difference, but I look forward to seeing the margins.
    Oct 8, 2015. 10:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Investors Are Dealing With A Crisis Of Faith [View article]
    "A rational price for a stock with no near term earnings potential and all the risks inherent in this business, would be about $70, which is still 10 times book at that (probably more than that since they have mortgaged against most of their assets during 2015."

    Most car companies are worth no more than 10X profits, definitely not 10X book. Since massive growth will be required to generate any profits for Tesla, it would be hard to know how much to value it.
    Oct 7, 2015. 03:36 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Faith In Central Banks Dwindles [View article]
    " the utterly illogical faith that this time, central planning will somehow work in spite of the massive heaps of countervailing evidence that have accumulated over the years"

    well said!
    Oct 7, 2015. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Being Opportunistic In The Market Sell-Off [View article]
    Cerus will be taken out long before they get red blood cell approval. I think the next catalyst will be uptake of their product in US blood centers, which we're starting to see. There's a ton of work to do before its widespread here in the US. I think it will be at least 5 years before any possibility of commercialization of red blood cell product in US, based on very conservative FDA in this type of situation.
    Oct 7, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy - An Update From Don Quixote [View article]
    I agree that if a big downturn hits cheap energy will take precedent over environmental concerns and coal will increase in price as debt financed natgas projects get cancelled.
    Oct 7, 2015. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Board Size And Spin-Off [View article]
    The reason for the spinoff is they tried and couldn't raise any money trying to sell a stake. So they have to look like they're doing something. Unless they dump all the debt on the spinoff and clean up the copper business's balance sheet this won't help. I doubt though that they can spin off all the debt with the new entity because the creditors will see that they're getting screwed as the valuable collateral assets are hived off.
    Oct 7, 2015. 10:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills: Buy The Products Not The Stock [View article]
    Good work, I agree that GIS is moderately overvalued now, but maybe less so than overall market. If you expect market and T-bill returns over the next 10 yrs to be as low as I do, then sitting on the shares and collecting the dividend of 3% will seem like a reasonable option if you can handle volatility.
    Oct 7, 2015. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: Can You Hear The Pin Drop? [View article]
    newbie - do yourself a favor in the future and stay away from "story" stocks like DDD.
    Oct 6, 2015. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging From The Fog [View article]
    This situation is not unlike the problems soviet economies and governments faced as they struggled to produce any growth despite repeated idealogically based economic dictates that "should" produce growth, but never did. We've maxed out pseudo-Keynesian policies and its time to accept and work within the true laws of economics.
    Oct 6, 2015. 10:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment