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  • What You Don't Know About The Sandstorms, Part II [View article]
    Thanks Hyper,

    Good news they didn't have to remit - bad news TBird is out of money for future capex. Running through my "back of the napkin" numbers, TBird needs a lot more help from Sandstorm to keep drilling. Drilling out of cash flow will take alot more than a year to get to 50... JMO.
    Jun 23, 2013. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Liquidation Now Accelerating [View article]
    I am suprised no one has yet brought it up, but assuming the ETF demand side steadies out to 200 tonnes/year, it will represent about 5% of demand/year... almost irrelevant.

    The ETF/Central Bank flows are subject to manipulation both ways, so I pay very little attention. Jewellry, bar/coin, tech are more telling of real demand.

    The increases in coin/bar vs. ETF demand went from parity (2009) to appr. 4 to 1 at current. The "paper shakeout" last month will likely keep that spread increasing... all positives IMO.
    May 23, 2013. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Paulson, whose hedge fund is the single biggest owner of the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), maintained a 21.8M-share position even as the value of its holdings fell ~$165M in the latest quarter. But all that remains of his Barrick Gold (ABX) holdings is 36K call options vs. 915K shares at the end of 2012. Other positions in miners AU, NG, AEM, IAG and ANV were unchanged or modestly changed. [View news story]
    Please correct me if I am reading this incorrectly, but doesn't 36k call options equal ownership rights to 3,600,000 shares which would far exceed the 915k shares held at the end of 2012?
    May 15, 2013. 08:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Wouldn't Touch Barrick Gold With A Pick Axe [View article]
    Barrick requires a contrarian outlook on both the commodity and the company itself. This article's headline is one of about 15 this week mentioning the blood filled streets at Barrick... it has to be getting close to bottom. Debt load is an issue if gold sustains below $1,200 - but I imagine gold supply would likely be very limited at that price level as very few projects are economical at that point.

    They were one of the few (maybe only) to reverse the rising "all-in" cost trend this last quarter - which was encouraging. Yes, I know, 1 quarter is not a streak. They seem to be taking a page out of Yamana's book by mentioning "further cost cuts" and "operating efficiencies" about 15 times during the last conference call.

    At this point PL has to be viewed as an out of the money call with significant upside if something gets worked out. At $30/share Pascua Lama is partially priced in, at $19 its priced to fail.

    It'd be nice to get a large shareholder to implore the board to operate free cash positive starting in '14. Its not likely, but it would pull the dogs off and attract the value crowd.
    May 3, 2013. 10:20 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment