Ever feel like trading is like rolling dice? In a way, it is, because every mathematical model of the market includes a stochastic aspect. But I believe we can load the dice in our favor through the use of statistics. Understanding both the stock market and each individual stock as a sort of random process with its own characteristics allows us to more accurately predict what it will do in the future. Coupling statistics with fundamental analysis, I have the goal of revealing to you the hidden patterns within stocks so that you may do what you wish with that information.
I have more than 10 years experience investing in commodities and hard assets such as gold and silver miners, exploration companies, oil and gas producers, MLPs, and various other sectors.
Sramana Mitra is the founder of One Million by One Million (1M/1M), a global virtual accelerator that aims to help one million entrepreneurs globally to reach $1 million in revenue and beyond. She is a Silicon Valley entrepreneur and strategy consultant, she writes the blog Sramana Mitra On Strategy, and is author of the Entrepreneur Journeys book series and Vision India 2020. From 2008 to 2010, Mitra was a columnist for Forbes. As an entrepreneur CEO, she ran three companies: DAIS, Intarka, and Uuma. Sramana has a master’s degree in electrical engineering and computer science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Full bio can be found at http://www.sramanamitra.com/bio/
Founder of "The Contrarian", a premium research service, featuring the "Bet The Farm" Portfolio. Actively investing since 1995, I have soared like an eagle, and been unmercifully humbled by the markets. Achieved positive returns in 2008, and turned an account with $60,310 on 1/1/2009 into an account with $3,177,937 on 11/30/2009. My best years have been 1995-2003, 2008-2012, and 2016-????. My worst years were 2013-2015. I believe inflation is coming, and we are at an inflection point in the markets.
Twenty year career as an investment analyst, investor, portfolio manager, consultant, and writer. Founder of Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd, which was incorporated in the spring of 2009. Dyed in the wool contrarian investor, who has learned, the hard way, that a good contrarian is only contrarian 20% of the time, but being right at key inflection points is the key to meaningful wealth creation in the markets. I believe we are near a meaningful inflection point, perhaps the biggest one yet, for the third time in the past 15 years.
Historically, I have had huge wins and impressive losses based on a concentrated, contrarian strategy. Trying to keep the good while filtering out the bad.
Seeking to run an all weather portfolio with minimal volatility and index overlays to capture my strategic and tactical recommendations along with a concentrated best ideas portfolio, which is my bread and butter, but the volatility only makes it suitable for a small piece of an investor's overall portfolio. The following are a couple of my favorite investment quotes.
"Life and investing are long ballgames." Julian Robertson
"A diamond is a chunk of coal that is made good under pressure."
"Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world." Albert Einstein
I’ve been on top of the world, and the world has been on top of me. I have learned to enjoy the perspective from each view, and use opportunities to persistently acquire knowledge, and enjoy the company of those around me, especially loved ones, family, and friends.
At heart, I am a market historian with an unrivaled passion for the capital markets. I have had a long history and specialization with concentrated positions and options trading. Made money in 2008 with a net long portfolio, deploying capital in some of the market's darkest hours into long positions including purchases of American Express, Atlas Energy, Crosstex, First Industrial Real Estate, General Growth Properties, Genworth, Macquarie Infrastructure, Ruth Chris Steakhouse, and Vornado near their lows. Shorting, hedging, and option strategies also helped me in 2007 and 2009, and these are skills that I have developed ever since I started trading heavily in 1996.I enjoy reading, accumulating knowledge, and putting this knowledge to work in the active capital markets, learning lessons along the way.To this day, I continue to learn, and some of these learning lessons have been excruciatingly difficult ones, especially over the past several years, as I made mistakes allocating capital, including a sizable portion of my own capital (I always invest alongside my clients), to commodity related stocks. While all commodity related stocks have struggled since April of 2011, coal companies, which attracted me due to their extremely cheap valuations, and out-of-favor status (I am a strong believer in behavioral finance alongside fundamentals and technicals) have been the worst investing mistake of my career. The focus on the commodity arena has been the biggest mistake of my investment career thus far, yet in its aftermath, I see tremendous opportunity, even larger in scope than the fortuitous 2008/2009 environment.The capital that I accumulated and the confidence gained in navigating the treacherous investment waters of 2008 gave me the confidence to launch my own investment firm in the spring of 2009, right before the ultimate lows in the stock market. At the time I was working as a senior analyst at one of the largest RIA's in the country, and I felt strongly that the market environment was the best time since 1974/1975 to start an investment firm.
Prior to starting my firm, I was a senior analyst for three different firms over approximately 10 years (Charles Schwab, Redwood, Oxford), moving up in responsibility and scope at each stop along my journey. Since I was a paperboy, I have always had an interest in the investment markets. I love researching and finding opportunities. I am a Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA, as well as a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst, CAIA. After starting in the teaching program at Ball State University, I switched to a career in finance when I turned a small student loan into a substantial amount of capital. I graduated summa cum laude with a degree in finance from Ball State.
Full disclosure, I am not currently a registered investment advisor, though I did serve in this capacity from 2009-2014, while owning Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd. Additionally, I held various securities licenses from 2000-2014, without a single complaint filed, and I continue to hold industry designations. At the end of 2014, I voluntarily let my state registration expire, as I transitioned the business to a different structure. Prior to this, I had passed, and held, various securities exams and licenses, including the Series 7, Series 63, and Series 65 exams, in addition to others, alongside my CFA and CAIA designations. Unfortunately, I did not file the proper paperwork to withdraw my state registration, and I did not disclose a personal arrangement, and subsequent civil case, between myself and a former close personal friend and client, that was initiated in 2011. I was unaware that I was required to disclose these items, and my securities attorney, at the time, did not advise me to do so. Previously, I had managed a portfolio for this gentleman, and we had taken an investment of approximately $7 million in 2009, and grown it to over $25 million at the beginning of 2012. After a difficult year of performance, an employee of the firm I owned, and friend, resigned in early 2013, and took the aforementioned client to a competing firm. As a result of not filing the proper paperwork, I agreed to a settlement, with a potential $2500 fine in the future, depending on if I choose to reapply to be a non-exempt advisor.
Tomasz Tunguz is a Partner at Redpoint Ventures where he works with Axial, Looker, Electric Imp, Expensify, ThredUp, Quantifind and Erply. He blogs at www.tomtunguz.com
Prior to joining Redpoint, Tomasz was the Product Manager for Google's Social Media monetization team, including the Google-MySpace partnership. In addition, he managed the launches of AdSense into six new markets in Europe and Asia. Before Google, Tomasz developed systems for the Department of Homeland Security at Appian Corporation, a provider of Business Process Management solutions. Tomasz also co-founded Perquimans Systems, a provider of bilingual, tri-currency automated time billing and document management systems for top tier law firms in Chile.
Tomasz holds a B.A. in Mechanical Engineering, a B.E. in System Identification and Control Systems and Master of Engineering Management from Dartmouth College where he was a George Revitz Fellow.
Specialties: Social networking, monetization, enterprise systems architecture, machine learning, business process management, mobile web
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Eugene Eliot Narrett was born on December 27, 1948. He died on the night of December 6, 2013. Having just left an art gallery in Brattleboro, Vermont, where his paintings were on display, he crossed Union Street and was struck by a hit and run driver.
Professor Narrett was the first of five sons born to Dr. Sidney S. Narrett and Mrs. Beatrice Narrett.
Professor Narrett grew up in Passaic and Clifton, New Jersey. In 1963, at the age of fifteen, he won the Quality of Latin Certificate of Merit from the Philadelphia Classical Society. He attended Upper Montclair College High School and matriculated at Columbia University.
Professor Narrett graduated from Columbia in 1970 with a BA in Art History. He received his Masters degree with Honors in English and Comparative Literature in 1975 and his Ph.D in 1978 in these same disciplines all from Columbia University.
Professor Narrett’s dissertation on the Romantic poet, Percy Bysshe Shelley, The Comedic Vision of Shelley's Poetry, was written under the Columbia University scholar and professor, Karl Kroeber, who taught for nearly half a century in the English and comparative literature department. At the time his dissertation was completed, Professor Kroeber labelled Eugene Narrett as the greatest interpreter of Shelley extant.
Professor Narrett had a thirty plus year experience as a College teacher and was a published author in comparative literature, poetry, and art criticism. In 2010, Professor Narrett published in the English-American Association Journal, Identity, Theft, and Image Play in Coleridge. In 2010, Professor Narrett also authored a series of essays on Nietzsche and Schopenhauer and other western authors commenting on the nature of Western culture and how their views make use of or reflect on the relation of Judaism to the West.
In addition, Professor Narrett was an exhibiting artist (1977-92) and had gallery shows in New York City, Boston, Cambridge and Maynard Massachusetts and most recently and fatefully in Brattleboro, Vermont. He was also an accomplished self-taught flute player who once entertained strollers in the parks of Salzburg, Austria.
Professor Narrett taught, designed, created and directed many Liberal Arts courses and programs in fields including Art, Art History, History, Literature and Philosophy. His wide-ranging knowledge of history and his ability to integrate disciplines provided a comprehensive overview and rare insight into the most challenging conflicts and currents of our times. He published extensively on American politics and culture and on geopolitics and the Middle East. He is the author of three books: Gathered against Jerusalem: Essays on a False Peace; Israel Awakened: a Chronicle of the Oslo War; and Israel and the Endtimes: writings on the logic and surface turbulence of History (2006).
For much of his published work and radio guest appearances please see Israelendtimes.com as well as Amazon.com.
On language please see: http://www.webcommentary.com/php/ShowArticle.php?id=narrette&date=060924
As interpreter of Shakespeare please see: http://israelendtimes.com/blog/2010/08/28/thoughts-from-shakespeare.htm
Professor Narrett’s lifetime of scholarship and effort to find the essence in human behavior, as manifested in literature, art, and geo-politics came to a corporeal conclusion on a dark night in December but he always carried and forever will his soul carry the banner of learning and knowledge.
Professor Narrett was survived by his son, Gabriel Narrett and four younger brothers, David, Zachary, Seth and Matthew.
Jeez, there is a tempting devil-on-my-shoulder whisper to come across as a grumpy older investor. Yes, I walked 5 miles to school in the snow and barefoot most of the time. But I've always been a fundamentalist who was impressed by a reasonable 'story' or thesis for a particular company. Having made a lot during dot.com days and then watch too much of it slide away, I will happily listen to the rose-colored glasses version of events and then do my own revisions as to why American Motors will NOT be making a comeback.
Currently, I like non-commodity tech and energy stocks. I used to like smaller companies but the odds of them getting acquired or squished is about even, so they better have a great and unique advantage.
I'd love to say I was a buy-and-hold kinda guy but the truth is I do get impatient. Having heard it too often, I don't like a management excuse of the sales being soft because of deals that didn't get closed in the final few weeks. Like most of you, I will make exceptions to that if the story is right. And that is what we're here for, sniffing out our version of truth among the piles of information. Like a meal in a vegan restaurant, not all of it is good!
A graduate of both Harvard Law School and Harvard Business School, George Putnam, III first became involved with distressed securities as a lawyer in the late 1970s. Seeing the inefficient niche that bankruptcies and turnarounds were presented and researched, he founded New Generation Research, Inc. and began publishing The Turnaround Letter in 1986.
Since then he has frequently been quoted in Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, USA Today and other financial publications. In 1990, he was named investment advisor of the year by USA Today. In addition to his responsibilities at New Generation Research, Inc., Mr. Putnam also serves as a trustee for The Putnam Companies, a mutual fund group with over $100 billion in assets.