tom Andersen

Faces of Death: The U.S. Dollar in Crisis

There are of course those self - correcting measures that will help things out. For instance, when the Euro went from 75 cents to double that, combined with a real estate value decline of 60% or more in various places like Florida, all of a sudden a German could buy a Florida condo for less than 1/5 of the price he would have paid just two years ago. So they buy. Which helps the dollar, the real estate market, airlines, etc.
If the dollar drops even more, then the Asians will start buying. Not just real estate. At the end of it all, the US will not be the largest economy in the world, but everything will be ok. Sort of a 'we overspent and now we have to get back to real work' kind of an event, as opposed to a 'hyper inflationary end of the world' event.

Want to Own Silver? Forget About SLV

The banks are short on silver - 500 million ounces, and this handily is also about the 'total stockpile' from the graph. To me it looks like the real metal that the SLVs own is all shorted by the banks and counted on the graph. Which I agree with the author is wrong. But perhaps the real thing happening is that 'inventory' graphs no longer make sense.

Its all complicated enough to make holding companies who dig it out of the ground and sell it seem like a simpler investment.

Solar: Energy's New Growth Sector

The only thing that will make solar work is for governments to stop the massive subsidies. When Spain made a big cut prices tumbled 30 - 50 % in months. Unfortunately prices need to come down by a factor of 10 to make it really work. It could work, though - remember when a DVD player cost $500? They are $20 now. The companies that make the 'real' hardware may or may not even exist now. Super scary to invest. But unlike wind, there is actual realistic hope that it might work.

Look Who's Betting on Inflation

Anthony,

Asia, Europe and Russia love gold, likely more than Americans.

Look Who's Betting on Inflation

Even moderate inflation (eg at a 5% 'official rate') plus real gold price increases could easily push it to $3k in three or four years. Lots of profit for the miners.

First Solar Sell-Off Is Overdone

When solar power is 10x cheaper than it is now, it will be competitive. Until then all solar exists at the mercy of govt programs. When the public wakes up to the cost, the whole thing may collapse. Why FSLR would come out of this kind of scenario alive is beyond me. Stay away.

5 Reasons to Avoid the Gold Rush

Owning gold mines is owning a company that 'can raise prices with inflation' - in fact the real price of gold will go up with inflation, while expenses are basically tied to the rate of inflation. So its a leveraged position on gold that can pay dividends, etc. You don't have to buy the metal.

As an Investment, Gold's Just a Brick

Gold is about $1k now. With a doubling of prices over the next 5 years it should go to $2k. But if inflation hits like that, people will run to it - which will double the price. So $4k within 5 years. If you want more leverage than that - buy the gold miners.

Smartphones: The Mobile Industry Is About to Get 'Blown Apart'

I found the graphs very wrong. About 90 % of the iPhone is Open source, the tools to build the apps come free with every Mac, and most importantly the tools actually work. No one comes anywhere near the depth of the development software on the iPhone. Plus giving 60 or 70 points directly to the manufacturer on each sale, is unheard of. Retail is at about 20 - 50%, and with piracy, etc most software is well below 50%. In 10 years there will be iPhones and open source clones of them, plus perhaps something like Android or the Palm.

Apple's next target is their own computers! Hardly anyone needs a PC or Mac. What they want is a dependable device that has no backup / state issues. Want a better one? Buy it and take it home.
The only people who should be running PCs and Macs are developers/CAD/Photoshop junkies. Consumers want email, homework and facebook, not viruses, backup, headaches, etc. Way too complicated.

Inflation Expectations: A Primer

All of the underwater mortgages and the national debt will be manageable if prices double. This then becomes the central goal of US monetary policy. Americans are not like the Japanese, they will not stand around and wait it out. So inflation will come sooner rather then later, doubling all prices and then likely go away again. Based on this, gold will go from $1k to $2k in price, but when gold starts rising, there will be at least a bit of a rush for it, so the real value of it will also double - expect $3k to $4k gold within 2 - 3 years. Inflation is required to pull the US out of debt, and I know that American business owners and government do NOT sit around and 'take it' - they take action.

Debt Loads of G20 Nations: Japan, U.S. Deep in the Hole

inflation is the only cure.

15 Companies That Might Not Survive 2009

Everything is bad. Yeah right. For instance: Imagine you own a car rental company. Since people are now looking for cheap cars, it is easy to sell your cars as they come off service. Also, buying cars from cash strapped manufacturers puts you in the drivers seat. Costs are down as gas is cheaper, employees stay longer, etc. It turns out it is not all bad.

Great Depression Not Imminent, But Inevitable

One sign of the top - when people are saying "this time its different". The sign for the bottom is the same. 1981 was pretty bad with 20% interest rates. This just does not seem as bad as that.

A good downturn will help clean out the 'stupid economy' - wind power, solar panels, defense overspending, silly government spending, people who can't read and add getting expensive mortgages, e-zee corporate credit, etc...

Own Gold? Time to Fold

Have no idea where the market, gold, is etc, but when analysts start saying that 'this time is different' it is one sign. Its never different. There are 6 billion people on the planet. Only 2 billion have ever used commodities up until now. The other 4 want in.

Oil: A Slippery Slope Ahead?

Pretty well all wrong. Oil quadruples in price, and the US uses what 4% less? The demand for oil is pretty inelastic.

Oil sands really cost 30 - 40 per barrel. CANADIAN. Also Oil as, measured in non us currencies never went as high, or has tumbled as low as it looks to you americans. EG: Oil at $140 US was almost perfectly correlated with the 1.1 0 Candian dollar, so it was $126 CDN. Now at $50 US it is $67 CDN. The price of oil was also a story about the ride the US $ is on.