tom Andersen

Solar: Energy's New Growth Sector

The only thing that will make solar work is for governments to stop the massive subsidies. When Spain made a big cut prices tumbled 30 - 50 % in months. Unfortunately prices need to come down by a factor of 10 to make it really work. It could work, though - remember when a DVD player cost $500? They are $20 now. The companies that make the 'real' hardware may or may not even exist now. Super scary to invest. But unlike wind, there is actual realistic hope that it might work.

Wind Power: What We Can Learn from Denmark

Denmark has the second dirtiest electrical grid in Europe, as the other 80% (really 90%) of the power comes from a coal plant. And oh yeah electrical rates that are about 3 x those in North America. Sounds good. Lets triple your electric bill. Puts more money into Vesta and GE, though. Don't forget poor Goldman Sachs - one of the leading wind developers in the US. Wind power in North America is about one thing: Tax avoidance.

The Year Ahead For US Wind

The main benefit of wind power to a large corporation is NOT in the paltry, low quality, electricity, or the raw PTC 1.5c / kwh, which is connected to production, but rather in the luxurious tax breaks that you get. I think that these tax breaks will go the way of the dodo when government income drops like a stone in 2008/9.

From an investment point of view, wind is only about government tax breaks. I for one would not put a dime this kind of endeavor, given the fickle nature of our politicians.

"During a December 15, 2004, teleconference, Ed Feo - Milbank Tweed Hadley & McCloy, LLP pointed out that 2/3 of the economic value of wind projects come
from tax breaks.9
"
FPL group paid no federal tax in 2002 and 2003, with 2 billion in net income. When governments come up 10 - 20% short on revenue next year it will be hard to continue these subsidies.

See:
johnrsweet.com/Persona...