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tonym1122

tonym1122
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  • Herbalife Is An Endless Chain [View article]
    yet another umpteeenth zzzzzzzzz ackman regurgitated article.
    ignoring the basic fact that consumers still use the product, for whatever reason. from 2.4 billion to 4 billion in net sales..? (but of course, its all sitting in garages somewhere)

    Why do people buy a $5 coffee at SBUX when they caffeinate themself for 1/2 the price? Why do people buy CLOROX, when the white tag bleach is basically the same thing. Why do consumers buy brand drugs, when the off-labels and generics can be purchased at 1/2-1/4 of the price? and of course, why do consumers buy/use HLF products (in however manner) when they can buy the same at much cheaper prices at the local GNC, Walgreens, etc.
    Mar 2, 2013. 11:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Rare Earth Leader Now Dirt Cheap [View article]
    Advill, despite the condescending "Thank you for your time" remark, thank you for your point by point explanation; particularly #7, #4.

    I would add a #8 - yes, its a fact is ree prices are falling, despite China's past "interventions", and, imo, will continue to fall with this morning's "new interventions" - just doesn't work.

    In addition, if Smith (whose incessant TV weekly (it seems) cheerleading appearances have become a bore, if not a major red-flag) is sooo bullish on the space, where exactly is he putting his $...... well, there's that almighty 4600 share purchase he did make, after having dumped millions of $s in shares on the public.

    This entire mess reminds me of 2000-2001, when every internet CEO was on a cheer-leading warpath, up until 1Q of 2001, when the ghost finally gave up, after some while swings in 4Q prior. I do believe its what we're seeing this very moment.
    Sep 27, 2011. 11:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: The Renaissance [View article]
    AND per the original date of this "article", if it can be called that.. the author and his "research firm", if dates and trades do equate here, are long JCP from much higher levels.. even Einhorn covering shorts can't help the author out at this point
    Jul 27, 2013. 04:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: The Renaissance [View article]
    Lovely.. for one.. "Since reaching a high of $19.39 a share on May 23, 2013".. what high? JCP was at 40 after the RJ hiring occurred...

    Love the picture of 2 shoppers, pretty much says it all.

    Fact of the matter is JCP is done... RJ put the last nail in the coffin in it, and old or even new potentials just pass JCP by...

    CLAG needs new research, targets, potentials... a real research firm does not and never will depend on other firms to back up its assertions/hopes/opini... (as per par 1)

    The only thing that can help JCP at the moment, is possibly Mr. Ichan's involvement.. which I doubt will happen.... Ackman is dead on this one, just as he is dying on HLF (and we all know the history there, yes?)
    Jul 27, 2013. 03:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stryker Looking A Little Stiff And Creaky [View article]
    Chart says 40-45 in the near term, before it becomes a value play... definately not a growth play
    Jul 20, 2012. 10:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: May Be Worth $100 Per Share By End Of 2011 [View article]
    Chihawk - ok, so at least we're somewhat in agreement on the future of molycorp (for different reasons perhaps). And I do agree with you on Moly Phoenix assesment... on that we can agree..... I do agree with Advil on the future of REE pricing - there is still a TON of correction/bubble popping in the REE space, despite the smoke Smith/China are blowing/smoking. As far as Lynas is concerned, as well as a few others... well, the story is really, which one catches up first... Moly to lynas et al... or lynas et al to Moly. Although as a spec play (though I've no position in lynas at this time - still looking - and yes it would basically be a LONG term call option really) - would rather lose a $1 on Lynas, then lose $10-$20 on Moly once it comes in. Lynas does have my curiosity at the moment.

    That being said, I do think REE and RE players will come in quite a bit over the next few months, as REE prices fall from their still 7th heaven prices.
    Sep 30, 2011. 08:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Red Hat's 2Q Outlook Misses The Mark [View article]
    what baloney this arcticle was... comparing redhat to oracle and proctor and gamble? really... why not compare redhat to mcdonalds and burger king.. everyone and their mother will now come in at expectations or whatever the case will be given the eurusd.. its all baked in.. and anyone delivering come this earnings season will be worthy... not a piece of worthy info in this article that isn't GA really.. useless... as is the rest of seeking alpha

    Microsoft, lest you need a reminder is in the software buisness, not the services buisness.... windows8 will most likely not follow its hype... heck major companies are still on XP really, hence the minor traction that windows 7 received... Microsoft really should continue on its sql server and related offerings rather than win 8. so the comparison of redhat to microsoft is also an assanine comparison... two different companies, different offerings.. and if you believe in the slowdown/recession horror stories... than companies around the world will continue to seek cheaper alternatives, while paying for services, as Redhat has to offer..
    Jun 27, 2012. 03:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Threshold Pharmaceuticals: Understanding The Recent Data [View article]
    Tredleon, ur basing your arguments on PFS studies.. even when the company did not conduct true blind studies.. are you serious...?
    Mar 2, 2012. 01:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Threshold Pharmaceuticals: Understanding The Recent Data [View article]
    ALL in ALL a well balanced argument here... just slightly too positive for my taste, in favor of THLD. The author does an excellent job of presenting both sides of the story here.. however, imo, the data has a potential to be flawed, as others have pointed out... (and as the author himself points out)... overall, thank you for not being a "OMG this THLD is WORTH BILLIONS"... article is well appreciated.
    Mar 1, 2012. 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Threshold Pharmaceuticals: Understanding The Recent Data [View article]
    Agree 100% with Hoop... PFS dictated results are "massageable" and not a true measure of additional survival rates. The data put out there by THLD (including the fact that 22% of the patient trial study showed "something" - well.. data is incompletely)... BPAX, recently "showed" 30+ patients had some benefit - whatever it was.. THLD's 22% of the study was what 50+ patients? on PFS? need some real, and I do mean real FS/OS #s. its an EXCELLENT PR JOB so far, until some real numbers are reported.
    Mar 1, 2012. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: May Be Worth $100 Per Share By End Of 2011 [View article]
    if you want to talk turbines, well, the news is out there already... cars? again the news is out there... so ya wanna talk tablets, phones and what not... just take a look at the trends (including today's news about htc tablets)... the bar has been lowered on tablets... on phones, its a similiar trend... laptops and desktops, well, we all know that deal... (Apple seems to/always will have a cult following that will always over-pay for the same junk you can buy at 1/2 the price... but the general consumer is finicky.. we don't overpay for the most part)

    Again, what's the news that will propel ree's back up 50%, when the reality is they still have tons to fall
    Oct 2, 2011. 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: May Be Worth $100 Per Share By End Of 2011 [View article]
    Then we have found our general disagreement... here... regardless of moly or lynas or any other pos out there trying to cash in on the little guy, just as moly has.. a year ago, no one would have believed a metal such as copper would have been killed as much as it has... some few weeks ago, no one would have believed gold and silver would've been cut this quickly... some Ree's have come down 40-50% in prices... but are still thousands % points above historical levels... and in a crap slowing worldwide economy, who really wants to play those prices for much longer... fact of the matter is, rees', like copper and even gold to some degree.. have gone up thousands of % based on speculation, and hording... the bubble has only just started to deflate...
    Oct 2, 2011. 11:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Rare Earth Leader Now Dirt Cheap [View article]
    Perhaps, but why hold MCP now, when CHINA is in a major slowdown, they've already killed 80% of the railroad projects, according to news reportrs released yesterday... and the gamble that longs are playing is that the rare earths molycorp "may have" access to by the end of 2012 will be as expensive in the future, as they are now... not a good "risk on" prospect at the moment. As the slowdown in china continues, expect the rare earths floodgate to open... sell now when prices are still in 7th heaven, despite the declines recently that will continue... or sell later and even lower prices.
    Oct 2, 2011. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Rare Earth Leader Now Dirt Cheap [View article]
    Chihawk, the main point that REE bears are making is the opposite of what you stated: "And a mining business with a boom on the front end is bad? Big oil had the same situation eighty to one hundred years ago and that seems to have worked out well for them. " The Boom has already occured... and is deflating rapidly. It was speculation led.. just like Copper became a "currency" in China... so have other medals. It's all coming in.

    First of all, comparing oil to earth metals is not a valid comparison. Real Earths do matter, yes, but not at these (still falling) prices.

    So one of the big arguments for RE's is that china is the next big consumer of goods that use ree...electronics, cars, etc... To put things in perspective, I would simply point to the hourly wages of MOST chinese (the real consumers) enjoy. At the moment, the per hourly wage of [the real chinese consumer] is around $2/hr give or take? I wonder how many iphones/ipads/laptop that buys. China is going thru the same top 1% rich that we have here in the US... only difference, the average american consumer can afford things... China is far off from becoming a consumer economy - despite the growth they still enjoy. (and that is falling as well, btw)

    As far as the american economy goes, and the state of demand for electronics/cars/other REE products...that remains to be seen...but the numbers are not pointing to an uber-recovery - that really never existed, quite honestly... But do I really need a new iphone 5 to replace my iphone 4.. or a new ipad 3 to replace my ipad2... a new car to replace the one I bought last year?.. new TV, etc..... list goes on and on of products that use REE)

    Either way you look at it, the correction of the REE bubble has begun. The alternative are coming, whether they be mechanical or metal based. The space still has its merits, but the prices have MUCH farther to fall, I think...
    Sep 30, 2011. 09:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leveraged Silver ETFs On A Wild Ride [View article]
    Beware of "V-bottoms".. history repeats itself... if anyone is willing to listen. There are plenty of V-bottom examples out there going back to 2000-2002 internet bubble days that have not ended well.
    Sep 27, 2011. 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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