Seeking Alpha

smallcap sleuth

smallcap sleuth
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View smallcap sleuth's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • IGI Labs eases after announcement of debt offering [View news story]
    Crazy! Total bull transaction. Company does $20 million in first 3/4 of this year with essential break even profit/loss. Supposed to earn $2-3 million in 4th Q. Is able to borrow $125 million at 3.75 % with convert strike at $11.29 where buyers can't convert until 9/19. Very very cheap money because they have a huge pipeline already filed with the FDA for topicals and newly purchased injectibiles from Astra Z ( 17 ) and 3-4 from Valeant. Will no doubt use the funds to acquire a company or facility enabling IG. To manufacture injectibiles. Biggest problem is the unacceptable time the FDA is taking to move the ANDAs through the process. Beginning of Super growth of earnings will likely be late '15 or early '16 unless a legacy of 2010 and 2011 ANDAs get the go ahead but that is in the hands of the FDA. If you can wait this is going to triple from here by late '17. Guarantee, but don't look for a money back guarantee !
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Zacks' Bull Of The Day: MiMedx [View article]
    This looks like an extra group of patent protected products with very effective outcomes on patients. Seems early in its market penetration. Management seems stock holder friendly with the comment last quarter that they are making free cash and don't need to invest in an acquisition so could start buying back stock. Weakness could be an opportunity for them to shrink the shares outstanding. High quality management gives it to you straight.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Accelerate Diagnostics: Mistakenly Rewarded And Destined To Crash? [View article]
    Disagree with your contention completly. Your info is incorrect the dropping caused an immediate multimillion share sell off, or did multimillion shares all of a sudden decide to hit the market on just those 2 days. Company WILL ACHIEVE its goals of revolutionizing the methodology of short term diagnostic on bacteria. Most important advance in a hundred plus years! Welcome to the twenty first century. Can hardly wait until it's filed and in the marketplace. Sort of reminds me of the way Syntex went ballistic in 1964, they had a monopoly on the birth control pill. This will have a monopoly on a vast life saving invention. When this gets going ( stock wise ) it will be beautiful to watch and joyful to own a large chunk!
    Oct 25, 2014. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IGI Laboratories: Management Has Delivered And The Pipeline Is Building [View article]
    Will did you attend the quarterly? One heck of a story and performance. Check it out. Revs and profits in 2nd half '15, yes 15 and major build in pipeline in 15 due to mature early thru FDA. This co has its sht together and has plans and brains and determination to make it all happen. Hope you bot on the mini pull back, stock might be very reasonably priced as they project earnings of $2-3 M this year. Due to price rises and early seeming acceptance - multiply that by 4 but subtract significant R N D spend in 15, 1 new ANDA per month (3-4 in pipeline) current plus , '15 add 12. Yes they thought due to 9 of 18 bot from AZ are on FDA shortage list possible, hopeful quicker approval of new supplier which they thought could be ready for market second half of '15.

    Terrificic presentation. No commitment to earnings in 15 but should be profitable, no estimate. Maybe likely in 4th Q conf call after they absorb market reaction to new higher prices!
    They thought
    Oct 24, 2014. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IGI Laboratories: Management Has Delivered And The Pipeline Is Building [View article]
    Will I think you missed that AZ. Is going to produce the drugs for IG that should mean sakes and possible profits in '16. I think during that period IG A will buy or merge with the sought after capability.
    Oct 23, 2014. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accelerate Diagnostics: Mistakenly Rewarded And Destined To Crash? [View article]
    The issue of why the stock plummeted suddenly on "no news or reason " is totally incorrect. The day of the down draft coincided exactly with the elimination of AXDX from the Russel microcap index causing 3 million shares to be dumped on to the market place in 2 days. This imbalance was because the company was valued by the stock market at over the $1 billion valuation permitted by that index, it no longer fit in the parameters of the index.
    Oct 15, 2014. 02:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Accelerate Diagnostics: Mistakenly Rewarded And Destined To Crash? [View article]
    I'd like to address the potential market size in this posting.

    Management has stated in a ( I believe it was a filing but I'm not certain of that statement ) that they believe the annual number of tests annually to be 10,000,000, it was subsequently raised by a poster on a previous seeking alpha article to a higher number. If we use the 10 million as market size and play with some numbers let me suggest that the company were to charge $200 per cartridge (DISPOSABLE) per use than we are addressing an annual $2 BILLION revenue situation. We are talking about a piece of plastic that looks fairly complex but still it is injection molded and the assembled and distributed. If it costs as much ad $20, which is just pulled from the air but seems high to me than you have a gross profit of $1.8 B . How many shares are outstanding? Bit less than 50 million, you do the calculation. If they sell at $100 it's still a huge profit spinner.
    Management quality is hard to find a more legit group that has worked together and has ALREADY. Built 2 companies and successfully sold them to big pharma for OVER. A Billion dollars each time. These are serious folks with their money on the line odds are high that they know more than the short seller who wrote this article. Don't you think?
    Oct 14, 2014. 02:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accelerate Diagnostics: Mistakenly Rewarded And Destined To Crash? [View article]
    In a random order let me poke holes in the article. Think of the rights offerings. Consider the design of the offering and you must conclude the obvious. MANAGEMENT WANTS TO BUY MORE, AS MUCH AS THEY CAN ARRANGE. On a morally defensible basis.
    The free trading shares were higher in both cases of the rights offerings. If the management just wanted to just raise capital instead of buying more shares at close to market prices they would structure the offerings to allow small holders 2 favorable opportunities. 1). Allow small holders the ability to buy more than 1 share for every 20 they held ( so if you owned 100 you could buy more than a paltry total of 5 share). Who would bother to buy 5 shares more per 100 you held, it was designed only for large holders ( management and big institutions) ! The same was done on both rights offerings. AND 2) if you DONT. Want to buy more stock you make the rights tradeable thus every holder can sell the rights for cash. IN BOTH CASES MANAGEMENT FOR NO FEE. Agreed to purchase any and all unsubscribed rights, in the second case that was a $45 million dollar open potential commitment.
    These combined factors make it obvious that management WANTED more shares even at $16.80. Are they crazy to buy at these high prices or do they think they are worth a whole lot more than that number. Also NO MEMBER OF THE current Management team has ever sold a share even at $31, again a huge vote of confidence!
    The unrelated party is Oracle Investment funds who has also never sold a share and now owns 12% of the equity shares. They also never have sold one share. Do these folks think or know that they have a machine of huge value? I'm sure they do! If you read the peer reviewed articles on the co web site, under publications, it has repeatedly been tested by independent researchers and shown to be accurate to determine which bacteria is the killer in 5 -8 hours instead of the now necessary 3 days and the rate of achievement is in the very high 95% plus rate when done as old method and new run side by side.
    So they have the machine! NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. And management has voted with their wallets not just the tongue!
    Lastly for the moment if you do the math management bought 58% of the last offering that's 58% of 45$ million dollars. That ALONE is almost $30 million they just spent at $16.80 boy they must be really stupid to do that huh! Then Oracle bought another $5 million plus at that price. Incidentally the chairman also after the rights offering bought 20,000 shares in the open market at $26 ON THE WAY UP. If you don't get the picture I suggest you not participate in the stock market. I will have another few rebuttal posts but must take care of an errand. This is a buying opportunity. Quickly there is a catalyst and it is due very shortly . I expect the company will have sales in Q1 in Europe. More later folks
    Oct 14, 2014. 01:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accelerate Diagnostics: Mistakenly Rewarded And Destined To Crash? [View article]
    Any idiot that relies on this article deserves what happens to their money. Do your own research as I have done. The value of this stock is enormous as it will most probably save several hundred thousand lives a year in the US and Europe alone. -- EACH YEAR. Imagine the value society will assign to a company doing anything close to that. I appreciate the above posting from a knowledgeable fellow. I am going to post several of my responses below to reinterpret the articles authors rediculous conclusions!
    Oct 14, 2014. 01:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accelerate Diagnostics: Cornering The Worldwide Market In Hospital Lab/Microbiology Systems [View article]
    Jim I hope this bump in price is not built on EBOLA as that seems to be just another wave of media hype which will soon be replaced by the next topic to sell advertising on their platforms. Do you have any hint or info as to the price the co is thinking of charging for the disposable cartridge? This seems to be the ultimate price fixer over time! Do you know when the co will file with the FDA ( I though I read in one of their filings either 3 or 4 Q of this year ). how long before a review by the FDA is completed? Thought co expected to be in USA market in '16, early or late. How fast will the European take up be in you opinion. These guys seem like they have been working and planning for almost a year already, I would imagine they understand and have built for a quick acceptance in that market, is that also your thought?
    Oct 12, 2014. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IGI Laboratories: Management Has Delivered And The Pipeline Is Building [View article]
    WOW Janus just made the list of big institutions or funds , they filed a 13 D and disclosed a 5.3 million share position or 10.1 % of the total capitalization! Not even on the list of major holders on Yahoo Finance. Hope it doesn't slip by the investment community. As I've said long term funds with long horizons HAVE GOT TO LOVE THIS COMPANY ( stock ) and be buyers. Stock is going to get thin as a trading vehicle, WELCOME JANUS . NOTHING BUT GOOD THINGS IN THE PIPELINE, and the management is experienced in dealing with injectablies so they will either intelligently buy an injectibile facility or enter into a favorable relationship to produce their newly acquired products.This pull back due to finish of Janus buy in and market correction is a nice time to add or establish position if you can live with medical time lines, which is difficult for market types like me!
    Oct 11, 2014. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IGI Labs to report on October 23 [View news story]
    WOW did you see that Janus and its affiliates now own the biggest position in IG a whopping 10.1 % or 5.3 million shares. That is now subtractable from the float until probably 2017 Q 1-2 and possibly longer, depending on what IG management does during the intervening months. I think we have a tiger by the tail. HOLD ON THIS WILL BE PROFITAABLE as other large fund types, looking forward will see the same thing --a company with excellent management and a pipeline of products that spell huge % growth and hopefully even better profits in the pipe! Co must continue to manage the opportunities that it has captured in the recent past.
    Oct 11, 2014. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BioDelivery Sciences International's CEO Presents at BioDelivery Sciences to Provide BUNAVAIL Launch Update (Transcript) [View article]
    I read the transcript and was disappointed. Sounds like the P& L is not on the stocking of the distribution centers but only on the final prescription issued and executed by the patient/customer. So the risk is even greater as the initial investment is higher and with the short shelf life much of the drug manufacturing could come back and bite the co. on the ass! Constipation problem, STILL YES . This is a wait and see bet the company launch with a hype management . Watch out for delayed insider selling reports coming soon to your disappointment. Bigger expense line than any of you expect, if a delay in fulfillment or scrip writing I see very much RED INK. and company jeopardy warning by accountants next quarter. Hold at your risk, take the easy stupid money and run away. HYPE, HYPE, HYPE !
    Oct 8, 2014. 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reed's: 50% Potential Upside - Kombucha Is The Best Thing Since Craft Beer In Beverage Industry [View article]
    Weak management can't own stock in badly managed company it equal losing money!
    Oct 6, 2014. 01:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reed's: 50% Potential Upside - Kombucha Is The Best Thing Since Craft Beer In Beverage Industry [View article]
    Dope smokin long holder. Bigger than Monster that's a MONSTER of a puffery balloon. Could be bigger than Coke also, could be right anything could be!
    Oct 6, 2014. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment