Seeking Alpha

dgulick

dgulick
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View dgulick's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Pandora up 3.4% as Miller notes 'monstrous discount' [View news story]
    @manic, I can always tell when you get desperate, you go from calling me a "baggie" to a "paid shill", lol. But you missed the bottom.
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora up 3.4% as Miller notes 'monstrous discount' [View news story]
    Interesting, especially considering that study was funded by a major record label! Thanks for the link @Rex.
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora up 3.4% as Miller notes 'monstrous discount' [View news story]
    @manic,

    "Bill Miller bag holder bought this junk in 40s"

    Stock traded above 40 for a few hours or 0.03% of total trades since IPO, and yet everyone that is bullish bought there, according to you. You weaken your argument when you resort to just making stuff up. Also Apple bought Beats for $3B, not $1.5B. And we'll see what Apple comes out with in June, so far they have missed the mark.

    @koolrosh,

    Correct, global radio market is $50B.
    http://pwc.to/192SasX
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora up 3.4% as Miller notes 'monstrous discount' [View news story]
    My thinking on this may seem counterintuitive, but look who is opposing the songwriters here, the NAB. The reason? They know iHeartMedia can't absorb the cost, while P with no debt and $460m in cash & investments could (easily, even for worst case scenario of 3x songwriter royalties). So play this out, iHeartMedia in Ch 11 would leave Pandora unopposed in the radio ad space.
    Mar 28, 2015. 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora up 3.4% as Miller notes 'monstrous discount' [View news story]
    "Pandora returns nothing to artists"

    To date: $1.3B

    And I have no problem with P paying execs in stock (name a company that doesn't), it incentivizes.
    Mar 28, 2015. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora up 3.4% as Miller notes 'monstrous discount' [View news story]
    Another comparison to Napster? Napster returned nothing to artists, it was an illegal piracy site! (even still it was a mistake for RIAA to shut it down rather than buy it and make it ligit, instead leaving that job, and the profits, to Apple).

    As for "free music", yes, P is giving it away currently (not unlike any startup in history), but consider P expanded gross margin from 39% in 2013 to 45% last year, while at the same time increasing artist payout +30% y/y! (and over the same timeframe CD sales dropped -7%, iTunes sales -9% http://bit.ly/1a2GdcX ). Perhaps the reason Pandora is attracting so much attention is because RIAA/SoundExchange knows they are the future? (that isn't rhetorical, it is fact).
    Mar 28, 2015. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora up 3.4% as Miller notes 'monstrous discount' [View news story]
    Monstrous discount indeed! Easy double or better by this time next year.

    http://on.ft.com/1F3QUWM

    "Streaming music services... have eclipsed CD sales and are closing in on digital downloads"

    "revenues from streaming radio services, such as Pandora...grew sharply from $590m to $773m"
    Mar 28, 2015. 11:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analysts praise Pandora strategy, which may include on-demand [View news story]
    @blackarbsCEO,
    Yes, Pandora has been at it over a decade but was merely a niche product prior to mobile. But they found themselves in the right place at the right time as usage explode over 30x since smartphones hit in 2008. Surely you can expect some lag behind this massive transition of time spend and the subsequent ad dollars that eventually follow, after all it took Google a decade to erode newspaper/magazine ad revenues: http://bit.ly/1cGg6Tw . As a proxy, Pandora on desktop went through similar growing pains (40 hr limit on listening in 2010 just as Pandora did with mobile in 2013). But even though desktop has been profitable since (and despite desktop usage plateau) P saw a 24% rev increase over 2012 (with mobile, of course, jumping 195% in those 2 yrs). The trick to valuing Pandora shares is trying to predict this growth going forward (not easy as we see with analyst targets and even share prices all over the map), but any way I predict it shares are extremely undervalued now.

    @manic,
    Songza was on the ropes, needed a buyer or they were going under (because of Pandora), so not comparable (Google is realizing they bought a lemon, not unlike Apple with Beats). And yes, the "like" button *is* that valuable, 50B thumbs from 250M users, 81M active @ 21hrs/month, triple their nearest competitor. Pandora's breadth is immense, over 12,000 artists have more than 250,000 stations created using their band. This story is about far more than selling ads, it is a data revolution that is changing the music landscape forever. Record labels that are ignoring that fact will find out soon enough how wrong they are.
    Mar 27, 2015. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora: Keeping Competition In Check [View article]
    No they didn't, Spotify started the year at 40M already. And adding 20M is great but those are far lower engaged users according to Triton ( http://bit.ly/1xFIWxR p.25 Pandora weekly usage 4x Spotify, and p.27 Pandora 5x Spotify in "most frequently used"), and comScore ( http://bit.ly/1z98Zg1 "Pandora #1 app beating out Facebook ... only dedicated music app in the top 10").

    Spotify does have 3x Pandora in subs, but as they are entirely different business models (one free/ad-supported radio, the other subscription based on-demand w slight overlap), this is an irrelevant metric for comparing the two services.

    (also in response to "Pandora in existence for 20 yrs", no. It was originally launched "Savage Beast" in 2000 (so only 15 yrs ago) as music discovery software for businesses like Tower Records, and began offering Pandora radio in 2004 (11 yrs ago) http://bit.ly/1F1gThG ).
    Mar 27, 2015. 12:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora: Keeping Competition In Check [View article]
    And those competitors are failing to gain users, because, as Spotify has proven, you need a free/ad-supported base to get a subscriber. And if Pandora sees the potential for profits in on-demand it would be very easy for them to offer it (Spotify's, Google's and Beat's, et al, worst nightmare!). And while yes, music execs are pushing, it isn't a "matter of time" at all. As someone who follows SiriusXM knows, the music industry pushed hard to double satellite royalties and the CRB didn't give it to them (Soundexchange just lost their appeal last year http://bit.ly/1NjGFQ6 ).
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora: Keeping Competition In Check [View article]
    Let's take your points one by one.

    "CRB ruling will show Pandora ... can't be sustained."

    CRB judges are required by law to consider direct deals, evidence that didn't exist before. And ALL direct deals are for less than current rates (Pandora with Merlin and Naxos, iHeartMedia with ~25 deals, even iTunes Radio is at-market even though they don't qualify). The most likely CRB outcome is lower rates, at worst, status quo.

    "fake buyout rumors"

    While there have been plenty of these the fact remains as @lance put so well: "Nobody...(Google, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Samsung, etc) ...is having any luck". This is backed up by this recent study: http://bit.ly/1xFIWxR , while Spotify stole headlines with their strong growth Pandora currently has triple Spotify's users (p.20) and Amazon, Google and Beats trail very far behind. In fact Pandora has more weekly and monthly users than the next 3 (iHeartMedia, iTunes Radio and Spotify) COMBINED!

    "Past two years Pandora has missed every ERs"

    No, Pandora beat top & bottom and raised guidance in 6 of 8 reports, and they aren't removing guidance, just switching to EBITDA.

    "Big tech are entering streaming ... because they want to keep users within their ecosystem."

    But they are failing and Big tech is undoubtedly giving consideration to the effect a Pandora buyout would mean to their ecosystem!
    Mar 26, 2015. 01:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora: Keeping Competition In Check [View article]
    Pandora stock is ridiculously oversold, tremendous upside from here.
    Mar 25, 2015. 06:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora up 2.9% as CRT Capital upgrades to Buy [View news story]
    Yet another big tech copies Pandora, is there any doubt this is the future of music consumption? And yet Amazon still has no Universal songs (no Taylor Swift, Iggy Azalea, Katy Perry or Kanye West or any of these: http://bit.ly/1DUq1H0 ), and you can't make a station based on your artist of choice, an inferior "me too" product.
    Mar 24, 2015. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora up 2.9% as CRT Capital upgrades to Buy [View news story]
    CRB is labels, songwriters are handled separately. Also Judge Stanton is the one that ruled "all-in or all-out" regarding PROs, which is why songwriters and publishers have stayed in, BMI and ASCAP collect from many sources beyond streamers and, as yet, pulling out would result in lost income for songwriters from other sources (movies, commercials, bars, ringtones, etc).
    Mar 23, 2015. 04:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora up 2.9% as CRT Capital upgrades to Buy [View news story]
    I also think it will drive subscriptions, once you listen to Pandora ad-free its very hard to go back.
    Mar 23, 2015. 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,670 Comments
705 Likes