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dgulick

dgulick
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  • Pandora Media beats by $0.04, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Not entirely sure what the SX-Muzak lawsuit or Pandora's humble beginnings (all employees were paid as of 2004!) have to do with Pandora today, and your last link is actually bullish for Pandora. If FM radio were to begin paying performance royalties many radio broadcasters would be done leaving their advertisers and listeners to Pandora (though this will happen in due time regardless).
    Apr 27, 2015. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora Media beats by $0.04, beats on revenue [View news story]
    @musodus,
    The motivation is somewhat the equivalent of a scab crossing the picket line because they want the work (the music industry is the union in this scenario). And Merlin isn't alone, BMG and Naxos have also signed direct deals. Pandora's competitor iHeartRadio also has on the order of 25 direct deals, all for less than CRB rates, which will be entered into evidence for the 3 judge panel to use in determining the new royalty rates (due in Dec and applicable 2016-2020). Even Apple, got the smaller rate (as if Apple can't afford to pay more!) even though they don't qualify for Pureplay (Pureplay is a concession to the streamers after the music industry "won" the last round of rate setting, they don't want to starve their cash cow!)

    manic is short the stock and so simply trying to promote the fear that the music industry will demand higher royalties to shut down Pandora. But despite the noise, all evidence to date indicates that they really don't want that.
    Apr 27, 2015. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora down 5.1% after hours after earnings beat, new guidance [View news story]
    No, Pandora can't count BT car users, there is simply no mechanism to detect if a smartphone listener is BT to a car vs being at home (Sonos or BT to Airplay or smart-stereo) or wearing headphones at the gym, at work, etc. So when P mgmt stated that "a user that activates in-dash increases listening by ~20%" they are simply referring to their known 10M in-dash car listeners (because they do know the user activated via Chevy MyLink, MyFord Touch, Chrysler Uconnect, Subaru Starlink, BMW iDrive, etc) compared to the Pandora users who haven't.

    Car growth is no lie.
    Apr 24, 2015. 04:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora down 5.1% after hours after earnings beat, new guidance [View news story]
    What difference does it make if the 10M car users were previous actives? As long as their engagement increases because ad revenue goes with usage, not MAUs.

    Regarding subscribers, you falsely (and continually) try to make out the low conversion as a negative, Pandora doesn't care, they are focusing on the free FM listener as it is a much larger opportunity. Global radio ad sales are $50B compared to $12B for CDs, digital/iTunes & on-demand streaming (which mirrors historical listening habits time spent at 80% radio vs 20% on-demand music).
    Apr 24, 2015. 03:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora down 5.1% after hours after earnings beat, new guidance [View news story]
    @manic,
    "majority of Pandora listeners who are YOUNG FREELOADERS"
    Actually the majority of Pandora listeners are 25-54 (59% of listeners), only 1/3 of listeners are below age 25. And Pandora can target based on their typical trove of data on users (age, zipcode, gender) but also based on their listening preferences (country, gospel and new-age music listeners get republican ads whereas jazz, R&B, reggae, and electronic listeners get democrat ads). http://cnb.cx/1thclAy

    And regarding "Streaming music lags in the car" you need to consider the trend, 24% of car users is +74% y/y. Pandora car in-dash activations is now at 10M, +125% y/y, and remarkable considering that is more than half of the cars that have the capability. But as connected cars gain in popularity (putting 4G directly in the car, i.e., not requiring a bluetoothed phone, currently only Volvo and GM, but eventually all car mfgs will make the move) Pandora can be an easy button sitting alongside FM which will accelerate adoption just as it did for SiriusXM when they got integrated into the dashboard radio. (And tying this back to political advertising, Pandora also knows what kind of car you are in so can serve up republican ads to the F150/Suburban owner and democrat ads to the Prius/VW beetle).
    Apr 24, 2015. 03:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora down 5.1% after hours after earnings beat, new guidance [View news story]
    I don't believe CRB rates will go up. Remember your numbers are from the record labels who said the same thing when CRB was setting SiriusXM's rates, didn't happen.


    "DOJ partial withdrawal will allow music industry to be exempted from CRB ruling"
    Painful to listen to your confusion on this topic again and again. DOJ is looking at ASCAP (though it will likely cover BMI), this has nothing to do with CRB. But even so, if they "name their price" Pandora will just say no. That is exactly the scenario behind the BMG direct deal, Pandora stopped playing their catalog. Hold outs will just lose revenue (and exposure on a platform now accounting for 10% of radio listening, over 20B hrs/yr!!!!).


    "Beats with NO promotion"
    HAHA, good one, did you miss their Superbowl ads??!! (and Beats isn't even close to the top 20, it sits at 56th place, and on Android its not even in top 200, whereas Pandora is #1 downloaded music app (and #3 overall) for as long as they've tracked it (since 2012):
    http://bit.ly/1zVkUA1
    Apr 24, 2015. 02:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Changed My Short Position To Long On Pandora [View article]
    You said the same thing last year (about 100 times) about end of QE crashing markets, since QE ended: Dow +11%, S&P500 +13%, NASDAQ +20%.
    Apr 24, 2015. 12:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora down 5.1% after hours after earnings beat, new guidance [View news story]
    Well, I'd disagree YoY is irrelevant as there is much seasonality in the business (both usage and ad selling), but even still you are wrong, P didn't lose subscribers sequentially (3.6M in Q4, 3.8M today). You are referring to monthly users, yes, a sequential decline, but that's on 5M new actives in Q4, so 2.7M of them stuck around (similar thing happened last year though less dramatic, 3.5M new in Q4, only 2.4M stuck around come Q1).

    Bigger question is future growth. I found this interesting from the call:
    http://bit.ly/1I4oAGy
    "while we have 79 million listeners this quarter, we have about 100 million listeners in the three month period. And so there are people that are low hanging fruit"
    Apr 24, 2015. 12:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Changed My Short Position To Long On Pandora [View article]
    I don't believe CRB rates will go up. Remember your numbers are from the record labels who said the same thing when CRB was setting SiriusXM's rates, didn't happen.

    "DOJ partial withdrawal will allow music industry to be exempted from CRB ruling"
    Painful to listen to your confusion on this topic again and again. DOJ is looking at ASCAP (though it will likely cover BMI), this has nothing to do with CRB. But even so, if they "name their price" Pandora will just say no. That is exactly the scenario behind the BMG direct deal, Pandora stopped playing their catalog. Hold outs will just lose revenue (and exposure on a platform now accounting for 10% of radio listening, over 20B hrs/yr!!!!).

    "Beats with NO promotion"
    HAHA, good one, did you miss their Superbowl ads??!! (and Beats isn't even close to the top 20, it sits at 56th place, and on Android its not even in top 200, whereas Pandora is #1 downloaded music app (and #3 overall) for as long as they've tracked it (since 2012):
    http://bit.ly/1I4Fox3
    Apr 24, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora Media beats by $0.04, beats on revenue [View news story]
    @Speetzman,
    "where is the money?"

    Ad revenue +27% y/y
    Subscriber revenue +32% y/y
    Mobile revenue +35% y/y
    Local ad revenue +67% y/y

    Even desktop (where growth plateaued years ago and where P is barely investing in) RPMs were up +14% y/y!

    Every category is at an all time high, I think management earned their raise.
    Apr 24, 2015. 10:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora down 5.1% after hours after earnings beat, new guidance [View news story]
    @phuettner,
    No, I was actually saying *not* to include it (and trying to help out @manic who incorrectly concluded that Pandora has lost subscribers, in fact, they announced subscriber numbers on the call at 3.78M, +11% y/y).

    As for expenses, I'm good with investing in the business to capture more ad share from terrestrial radio and improving their product to maintain their lead on the competition. The street would appear to agree this morning.
    Apr 24, 2015. 10:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Changed My Short Position To Long On Pandora [View article]
    @Skeletor,
    Shares are up 5% (to the extent anyone listens to you, are they recognizing your smear campaign for what it is?).

    But on subscribers, as I explained in another post, P had $14M in sub revenue from 2012 & 2013 that according to GAAP accounting rules couldn't be booked until 2014 Q1. They covered this on the call:

    http://bit.ly/1I4oAGy

    "Subscription and other revenue was $52 million for the first quarter and grew 9% on a GAAP basis sequentially while decreasing 3% year-over-year on a GAAP basis due to a onetime reversal related to the subscription return reserve of $14.2 million in Q1 2014.

    On a non-GAAP basis, subscription and other revenue increased 32% from $39.5 million in Q1 2014. Our end of period paid subscribers were 3.78 million an increase of 11% year-over-year."
    Apr 24, 2015. 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Changed My Short Position To Long On Pandora [View article]
    Alex,
    I wouldn't put too much emphasis on q/q comparisons, Q1 is a seasonal low. When looked at y/y you get MAUs up +5%, Engagement +10% y/y, but far more importantly, revenue +28% y/y (mobile +35%, local advertising +67%) and raising full year guidance indicating +30% y/y increase, all in the context that everyone that is going to enter their space has already done so, where's the competition?

    @manic,
    Sub rev +32% y/y. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 23, 2015. 07:06 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora down 5.1% after hours after earnings beat, new guidance [View news story]
    No, sub rev up +32% (as is stated in the article above that you didn't read, rev only "dropping" due to 1 time $14M return reserve they had to defer from 2013 to 2014 Q1 in their GAAP numbers at the time).

    Also, Q1 is their worst quarter (lowest ad rev) and they still beat and raised Q2 and full yr guidance (high end of analysts predicts!). Considering the +20% run shares have seen since the last ER miss, a -5% AH drop is awful small, the bottom is in.
    Apr 23, 2015. 04:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora Media beats by $0.04, beats on revenue [View news story]
    top & bottom line beat and raise guidance!
    Apr 23, 2015. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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