dgulick

dgulick
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  • Why Pandora Could Drop 60% In 2016  [View article]
    I disagree completely. The selling is on no news, simply an impact of a small cap/technology contraction that has impacted many names without any rationality (perfect time to be a buyer). As for P's quarter I'm predicting a decent beat and guidance raise and with short interest at 20% of float, a significant pop on covering, especially considering shares have priced in an expectation of no signs of life whatsoever (and I also think Pandora sandbagged the guidance for the quarter to "play the pauper" before CRB rate setting).
    Feb 6, 2016. 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora lands BTIG upgrade; Apple ending free iTunes Radio  [View news story]
    No, that's because their business model is broken after all the geezers lose their hearing at the Billy Joel concert (bring earplugs TJ).

    Spotify back at the trough (is anyone asking what happened to the $526M from just 6 months ago?!!!!) http://tinyurl.com/zfx...
    Jan 28, 2016. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora lands BTIG upgrade; Apple ending free iTunes Radio  [View news story]
    'Conspiracy' is a strong word, let's call it 'unfortunate (but purposeful) timing' (for pre-1972 lawsuit settlement and the RMLC/South Dakota radio station write-down) and then pile on some conservative guidance. As you know, there's no SEC requirement that you even have to provide guidance, let alone how conservative it is. Typically companies do to help analysts and boost share price, but when your largest expense item (at ~50% of revenue) for the next 5 years is getting decided by 3 judges, what would you do? SiriusXM does the same thing, telling SoundExchange and the CRB how poor they are and how they should pay less, and then turn right around and tell shareholders --just kidding, it's fine.
    Jan 28, 2016. 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora lands BTIG upgrade; Apple ending free iTunes Radio  [View news story]
    Did you see Facebook? Digital advertising is still in hyper growth and I think P benefits from this as well. Also, as you know, I think P purposefully torpedoed the stock for CRB (timing of 1. settling the pre-1972 royalties, 2. write-down from RMLC bid withdrawal, and 3. lowering guidance), so Q4 will be an easy beat but all eyes will be on full year guidance, especially top line to absorb higher royalties, subscriber conversions (P has bumped up Pandora One advertising after CRB lowered those royalty rates) and expenses related to integration of Ticketfly and Rdio.

    And considering the stock has priced in the death of internet radio, shares surge.
    Jan 28, 2016. 08:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora lands BTIG upgrade; Apple ending free iTunes Radio  [View news story]
    Ha, good point slowbill, I hadn't even read the article, I thought they added music videos (like Apple Music), but Spotify is trying to become Hulu! Head scratcher, maybe Spotify is trying to branch out because subscriber growth is slowing? I agree with this view:

    http://tinyurl.com/h38...
    "I honestly don't know why you'd ever use Spotify for this stuff instead of YouTube or the ESPN app, but maybe I'm not getting this whole "shows" thing."
    Jan 27, 2016. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora lands BTIG upgrade; Apple ending free iTunes Radio  [View news story]
    Correct slowill, Spotify and Apple are trying to keep users from ever going to YouTube in the first place, though habits are hard to break. Pandora will likely copy this in an upcoming release, it is negligible development cost as they've had video ad capability for years, and it allows them all to pursue TV advertising which has been battered by DVRs and cord cutting/shaving (except Apple who has abandoned their free tier, which is a mistake).
    Jan 26, 2016. 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacccord: Pandora listener hours seem on track  [View news story]
    It is a buy in $30s, maybe not "strong", lol. Come on slowbill, convince me I'm wrong, why is the sky falling this time? You bought gold at $1700 didn't you?
    Jan 22, 2016. 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacccord: Pandora listener hours seem on track  [View news story]
    Good article on China and commodities (the story is the same for oil, over-investment in shale and oil sands):

    http://on.ft.com/1nEuPub

    "Falling commodity prices have been treated as one of the clearest indications available that China’s resource-hungry economy is slowing. Yet the latest data on metals consumption paint a more nuanced picture, with demand still rising even as the pace of growth has slowed.

    While copper may have halved in price since its peak in 2011, China’s consumption is estimated to have still grown 1.8 per cent last year, according to a report from HSBC.
    While that rate of growth may not be as strong as in prior years — or as strong as mining executives hoped when they invested in new supplies — it shows demand is still robust. That suggests much of the collapse in prices has been driven by oversupply following years of investment by mining companies."
    Jan 22, 2016. 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora lands BTIG upgrade; Apple ending free iTunes Radio  [View news story]
    You should pick up some shares @tj, I don't often do this, but just for you I'll go out on a limb and guarantee a double by 2017!
    Jan 22, 2016. 05:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacccord: Pandora listener hours seem on track  [View news story]
    That was a joke (appropriately named) slowbill.

    As for being out of the markets, the bigger risk than a market correction is being all cash with the inevitable erosion of spending power after 20+ yrs (when I'll be needing this money) or worse (ask gold bugs that bought at $1700/oz). So while you have a very good chance of a better market entry point in the future, there is still a ~20% chance (my calc based on current sp500 CAPE) that it will never be as cheap as today (I'm including dividends, sp500 yields are higher than 10yr treasuries right now!). And due to the complexity of predicting dynamic systems, I don't, I play it statistically (and of course like to apportion some of my portfolio to a few disruptor/growth stories like Pandora). But the markets have it wrong with oil (and commodities in general), the price crash is due to oversupply, not lack of demand as we would see in a recession. My point is, while oil companies are going to report brutal earnings, cheap energy goes straight to the bottom line for transportation, manufacturing, consumer (cheap gas and heating bills), etc.

    So as for the slide (you guessed it) I'm buying (and not just P).
    Jan 22, 2016. 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacccord: Pandora listener hours seem on track  [View news story]
    "the market as a whole at this point is in trouble"

    No it isn't, there's a cold snap in the northeast! (Lol.)
    http://reut.rs/1QjxAuq
    "Crude prices, still under pressure from a global glut, were up nearly 8 percent as freezing conditions and snowstorms boosted short-term demand for heating oil and traders cashed in their short positions."
    Jan 22, 2016. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora lands BTIG upgrade; Apple ending free iTunes Radio  [View news story]
    I wouldn't read anything into that, terms are rarely disclosed as it's detrimental to both sides in future negotiations. But going forward the streaming story is no longer about content costs as those are now largely set (this goes for on-demand streaming as well). No, the story now is all about whether the streamers can grow top line enough, i.e., how profitable can they be and how much does growth slow as subscription prices and ad loads go up.

    For Pandora, comparing the needed +21% in ad revenue (to cover the bump in royalty rates) to last year's ad revenue growth of +31% y/y (through a combination of higher CPM local advertising, programmatic display ads, and rich media/click-thru campaigns, something that is showing little signs of slowing), this will prove to not be a problem, to say nothing of the fact that CRB actually *lowered* the royalty rate (increasing the contribution margin) for subscribers (rates on subs were lowered -12%).

    And one last thing to consider, while CRB rates did come out higher (no one didn't expect this) the new rates only grow with inflation going forward. This means that, even if Pandora can only continue to grow ad revenue for 2017 and beyond at half the rates that they have been, shares will prove to be significantly undervalued. (to say nothing of the potential for international launches, concert promotions and ticket sales and their upcoming on-demand service).
    Jan 22, 2016. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora lands BTIG upgrade; Apple ending free iTunes Radio  [View news story]
    True, but with this announcement Apple is no longer pursuing mobile audio advertising, leaving their clients' ad dollars (which included Nissan, McDonalds, Hilton, Progressive Insurance, etc) to Pandora (and Spotify, iHeart).
    Jan 19, 2016. 12:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora lands BTIG upgrade; Apple ending free iTunes Radio  [View news story]
    He's been a permabear since IPO with a $3.75 price target when shares were 30s, the upgrade is interesting from that perspective. Here's a good article from 2014 on him:

    http://bit.ly/1KpkLdi
    "However, consistently during that period there’s been one major bear — Rich Greenfield, of the research firm BTIG. Greenfield has issued approximately 29 analyst reports on Pandora, every one of them negative. (On the other hand, oddly, he seems to like the rest of our industry. He’s written positively about almost every one of Pandora’s major competitors, including iHeartRadio, Slacker, Songza, Spotify, and others — even twice about the now-defunct Turntable.fm!)"

    "Also oddly [at least to me], he’s not just predicting business problems for Pandora, he’s sometimes actively trying to cause them, as in his September 2012 report, “Congress Should Be Working to Raise Royalty Rates on Pandora, Not Lower Them.”
    Jan 19, 2016. 12:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Canacccord: Pandora listener hours seem on track  [View news story]
    @The-Stein,
    "Any consumer with a car and iPhone already plugs their phone in to the audio system anyways for music."

    No. That is only true *if the car has the capability*. And considering the average age of a vehicle on the road today is 11.4 yrs means there is a significant percentage of cars that simply don't possess the capability to stream music in any form. But with 17M new cars sold in the past year, the number of streaming capable cars is increasing by a similar amount, via BT or aux-in plug at the very least, but with Pandora in-dash vehicles (with operating simplicity leading to increased usage) growing at +7M vehicles/year and an 80% activation rate (today totaling over 20M in-dash Pandora activations), we are witnessing a transition.

    Bottom line: in-car streamers in all forms (BT, aux, in-dash) grew by ~16M last year, most of that Pandora (+10M), and this growth is coming at the expense of AM/FM radio (-12M listeners) and CD listening (-14M).
    Jan 11, 2016. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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