Seeking Alpha

dgulick

dgulick
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View dgulick's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Why Pandora Is Subject To A Further Downward Correction [View article]
    True, many sheeple will use it, but to assess the overall impact to P's marketshare, reviews matter very much. And I do search on "Pandora sucks" on occasion, in fact share price should directly reflect the concensus on the quality of both (and other) products!

    As for conversion, many have fully transitioned to streaming for years now, whether its Pandora or Spotify, many even move the app onto their phone's home page/dock replacing the old Music app, and the only indication (beyond the media blizzard) that anything has changed when upgrading is the old Music app is now a new color, hard to see if its in a folder.

    Apple will certainly succeed converting those that want the "simplicity" of everything from Apple, and there is still a large marketshare of iTunes music sales that will give streaming a try (now that Apple says its ok, lol), but Apple will struggle beyond that. In fact there are many who own iPhones but with some disdain for Apple (I lean that way, still annoyed about moves against Amazon/Kindle and Google Maps, and annoyed that Siri is still rather useless, a broken promise following a lot of hype).

    You are also correct that many negative reviews are just going after click-bait, but if the meme becomes "Apple Music sucks", they are in trouble. And I'm seeing more and more articles. Do your own research, Pandora stock is definitely taking a hit from the Apple Music launch, but how will P be effected long term?

    Acclaimed Music Industry Critic Lists 7 Reasons Apple Music Is Doomed to Fail
    http://bit.ly/1LMTDcH

    Same critic, but pretty scathing:
    http://bit.ly/1LMTF4v
    “The truth is Iovine is ... way out of his league. He comes from a land where relationships and intimidation mean everything. You scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours and we’ll make it on the image of propped-up stars. But the truth is in the modern era the winners are faceless techies who go their own way, whether they be Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook, Evan Spiegel of Snapchat or Nick Woodman of GoPro. They’re giant slayers who think different, something Apple used to have a hold on.” ... He also praises Spotify founder Daniel Ek for being a true innovator during a time when Iovine was selling “crappy headphones as fashion items.”
    Jul 3, 2015. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Pandora Is Subject To A Further Downward Correction [View article]
    Here's a very funny review (below) basically explaining why Apple Music sucks. If you are a tech reporter writing a review you could easily just c&p reviews of iTunes Radio and Beats Music, why anyone believes merging 2 failed products won't fail is beyond me (look at the emperor's new clothes! lol)

    (Anecdotal, but I had the same experience as the reviewer below with Amazon music, the app was immediately populated with songs from all of the CDs I bought from Amazon over the past decade, at first I thought "cool!", then I thought "I'll never listen to any of those!")

    Apple Music, critic's review: 'clunky, fussy, confusing and flawed' http://bit.ly/1JyD94B

    "this brave new dawn for music streaming is not quite as game-changing as Apple would have you believe. Indeed, plunging into the bespoke 'For You' I was quickly trapped in a negative feedback loop of bands I once vaguely liked and had long ago moved on from...At moments it felt Apple was actively taunting me with the ghosts of rubbish records I'd previously owned...Rather than anything so predicable as hooking me up with sounds I liked, Apple Music instead recommended reconnecting with a band I hated from the moment I encountered them first time around...

    ...so much noise it is hard to focus on the music."
    Jul 2, 2015. 12:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Pandora Is Subject To A Further Downward Correction [View article]
    Take advantage manic, recent slide is all on Apple Music expectations which are going to come up short, again.
    Jul 1, 2015. 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google launches free/ad-supported music service [View news story]
    Looks like Apple Music didn't fix Beats & iTRs bandwidth issues either, which some blame for their poor mobile adoption relative to Pandora.

    Will Apple Music Kill Your Data Plan?
    http://yhoo.it/1f2D5jF
    "So switching to Apple Music from Pandora’s free version could double or quadruple your bandwidth usage"
    Jul 1, 2015. 06:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Pandora Is Subject To A Further Downward Correction [View article]
    "Crosslink Capital" .. is a VC, been invested in P since 2005, announced cashing their chips in 2013.

    "widening GAAP losses" for Q1 due to accelerating investment in ad sellers and product development.

    "failed to expand after secondary" no, see above, headcount doubled in 2 yrs.

    "DGulick $70 in 6 months" no, in 5 yrs, but a double in 12 mos is possible.
    Jul 1, 2015. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google launches free/ad-supported music service [View news story]
    @Rex,
    Quite right. A recent report shows more bad news for traditional ad outlets, print, another -15% y/y decline on top of the already crushing losses, TV and PC-desktop declining as well:
    http://bit.ly/1JwJeP6

    Where is it going? Mobile:
    Mobile Ad Spend to Top $100 Billion Worldwide in 2016, 51% of Digital Market
    http://bit.ly/1JwJfCF
    "In 2016, US advertisers will spend $40.24 billion to reach consumers on tablets and mobile phones, more than doubling the total from 2014"
    Jul 1, 2015. 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Pandora Is Subject To A Further Downward Correction [View article]
    Oh dear, not a good sign when media (CNN at that!) is helping users get the free 3 months without signing up!

    How to keep Apple from charging you for Apple Music
    http://cnnmon.ie/1JwfJNe
    Jul 1, 2015. 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google launches free/ad-supported music service [View news story]
    I did bet against Tullo, on NFLX (another unprofitable company). My most profitable trades have been misunderstood disruptors with enormous potential. I didn't enter this trade lightly, my spreadsheet for Pandora is now 50 worksheets with one, "financials", at 922 columns (go ahead, ask me anything! Lol.) Though yes, I do see Pandora's valuation as absurd, absurdly low! The biggest question is CRB rates (I have modeled +/-3sigmas from big win to big loss to SX, though even this is not a simple calc as higher pricing hurts competitors that are living on borrowed time (like iHeart), though of course low pricing goes directly to the bottom line), headcount required to tap local ad markets (again I have a conservative assumption based on FM ad markets), subscriber rev (the +32%y/y last Q surprised me, now over 2/3 of their subs are paying the higher $4.99 pricing, which indicates many of the grandfathered plan owners churned, early adopters to Spotify presumably, but P backfilled with new (and 20% higher rev) subs). No doubt a fair value calc on P is difficult, but see very little near term downside risk and enormous long term upside. But more pertinent to your short, there is some near term risk as Apple and Google continue to flop and a P Q2 beat and return to usage growth as car starts to take off (or a Carl Icahn jumps in with some of his NFLX profits!). Just my opinion, but your short is relying on continued institutional investor misunderstanding of the space.
    Jul 1, 2015. 01:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Pandora Is Subject To A Further Downward Correction [View article]
    Actually I'm using it, it's pretty bad. Trying to be itself (remember that your owned mp3s are still in the app somewhere!), Spotify, Pandora and iHeartMedia (DJs), and YouTube (yes, videos) AND Soundcloud (upload features) all at the same time! What a mess! (and it just crashed! Lol).
    Jul 1, 2015. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google launches free/ad-supported music service [View news story]
    @Glen,
    True enough on GOOGL, the Motorola buy was solely to defend Android against Apple lawsuits, as evidenced by keeping the patents when selling it off. And you make another great point on "how long" before this happens. Undoubtedly it could be a long time as smartphones are far more complex than stereos and TVs, but if AAPL doesn't go heavy into services it will look a lot like MSFT did over the past 15 yrs (beat by S&P500 for returns, heck, beat by money market!). But with regards to Pandora, under Tim Cook Apple has squandered their monopoly in digital music, and also stumbled with AppleTV, failing to recognize NFLX as the future of TV, and Siri is languishing as well, Carplay is nothing more than an iPhone emulator that runs on top of BBRY (QNX). On the other hand ApplePay and the iWatch could be large revenue streams in the future, but even if Tim Cook just rides out the stickiness Steve Jobs' created then shares are properly valued. (I'm long AAPL, GOOGL and P)
    Jul 1, 2015. 12:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Pandora Is Subject To A Further Downward Correction [View article]
    And the negative reviews for Apple Music start:

    Wired: APPLE MUSIC IS A BROKEN PROMISE
    http://wrd.cm/1f11MNn
    "Oh, but Apple Music, you try!"

    5 reasons Spotify is better
    http://bit.ly/1f149Qu

    Apple Music Is For People With No Clue What To Stream
    http://tcrn.ch/1f147rM

    Apple Insider is already telling people how to turn if off:
    http://bit.ly/1f147rR
    Jul 1, 2015. 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google launches free/ad-supported music service [View news story]
    Uh-oh, here comes the negative reviews:

    APPLE MUSIC IS A BROKEN PROMISE
    http://wrd.cm/1f11MNn
    "Really? That’s the best you can do with $160 billion in cash? If that’s really not enough, I’d happily give you an extra dollar."
    Jul 1, 2015. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google launches free/ad-supported music service [View news story]
    I agree, Tullo's wrong on P, I like Michael Graham from Canaccord Genuity http://bit.ly/1f10It3 (PT of $26) or Mark Mahaney of RBC http://bit.ly/1f10It6 (PT of $25), consensus is $23.

    Btw, just downloaded iOS 8.4 with new Apple Music and signed up for 3 month free trial (why not) so far its straight up Beats and iTR, too bad, as bullish as I am on P, I was hoping it might be cool. Apple's iPod/iTunes corner on the market in digital music is gone gone gone, it now belongs to YouTube, Spotify and Pandora.
    Jul 1, 2015. 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google launches free/ad-supported music service [View news story]
    I'll get right on that boss! Btw, spoke too soon on Tullo, he's now bullish on P, lol:

    Albert Fried Expects Pandora Shares To 'Shake It Off-Shake It Off,'
    http://tinyurl.com/qx9...
    "Despite Apple’s hyped-up new presence in the streaming music space, Tullo believes that Pandora still has a firm grip on the world of streaming radio."
    Jun 30, 2015. 06:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google launches free/ad-supported music service [View news story]
    Headlines from 2017:

    Apple Relaunches Apple Music as iBeats Radio with statement "For Real This Time!"

    Amazon and Google claim "We Have Music Services, Too!"

    iHeartRadio Shuts Down as Parent Files Bankruptcy Following Radio Advertising Drought

    Facebook Buys Pandora For $15B!
    Jun 30, 2015. 06:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,915 Comments
1,117 Likes