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dgulick

dgulick
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  • Nuance Is Doing OK And Getting More Interesting [View article]
    Extremely.
    Mar 4, 2015. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Competitor For Pandora To Deal With [View article]
    Let me explain again:

    Netflix is the Internet of Things (IOT) of TV
    as
    Spotify is the IOT of CD player/iPod
    as
    Pandora is the IOT of Radio
    (simple.)
    Mar 4, 2015. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Competitor For Pandora To Deal With [View article]
    So sensitive TJ! MySXM is nothing more than their knee jerk to the threat after Pandora's explosion in usage (going from 2B hrs streamed in 2009 to 20B last year) and, of course, noting the rather large number of additional entrants (Apple, Google, Microsoft, iHeartMedia, Spotify, etc). It's smart, but the reason SiriusXM doesn't advertise its existence, even to their own customer base is because they have to pay the highest royalties of any non-interactive streamer. This is because they do not qualify for the pureplay agreement as they would lose their favorable satellite rates (and can't do direct deals for the same reason, in fact SoundExchange filed an appeal to satellite's low rates as it is!) This puts SiriusXM in an interesting position exemplified by their proposed rates to the CRB (3x higher than what iHeartMedia is requesting). I think SiriusXM would actually prefer this higher cost number as it would be detrimental to all of their competition! But yes, SIRI's days are numbered, satellites are a very expensive distribution method that do not provide adequate bandwidth for feedback (thumbs up/down of a song), so can't compete with mobile broadband solutions (and why all of the big tech companies chose to copy Pandora/Spotify, not SiriusXM). I give them another 5-7 yrs, but would sell the stock now.
    Mar 4, 2015. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Competitor For Pandora To Deal With [View article]
    @Alex, my point is that *share* is less important since the *pie* is growing so fast. A year ago it was "Apple is coming" and iTunes Radio does have users, then Spotify bought Echo Nest and made their own Pandora clone, even SiriusXM copied them (MySXM, never heard of it? Neither has anyone else) and of course, all of the rest. Hey, plagiarism is the sincerest form of flattery, and Pandora certainly couldn't expect to have free range forever, but none of them have stopped P from growing, adding 5M users in Q4 alone.
    Mar 3, 2015. 11:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Competitor For Pandora To Deal With [View article]
    @M Absy,
    P *can* grow advertising, but are instead running lean to crush competitors before they even get started, for example iHeartMedia ($21B debt). Those selling shares now are myopic, not seeing the big picture.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Competitor For Pandora To Deal With [View article]
    *When* it loses market share? When will that be? As you mention in your article, there is literally no one left to enter the field (Apple, Google, Microsoft, Samsung, iHeartMedia, Spotify, some offering multiple services, Beats, iTR, YouTube, etc) and yet Pandora continues to grow! Usage was up 20% in 2014. Big picture, the streamers are going to replace owned music AND FM radio and they are just barely getting started (still only ~12% of listening).
    Mar 3, 2015. 08:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Competitor For Pandora To Deal With [View article]
    True, but Pandora is far more popular http://bit.ly/1z98Zg1
    "Pandora was the only dedicated music app in the top 10"

    Where is Spotify? Despite Spotify being global and showing some nice user growth last year it still trails mightily behind Pandora.
    Mar 3, 2015. 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Competitor For Pandora To Deal With [View article]
    Also, you cite Edison/Triton for your evidence of YouTube's popularity, this chart was also from that study:
    http://bit.ly/17P3wVV
    Mar 3, 2015. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Competitor For Pandora To Deal With [View article]
    @dajhilton,
    Current CRB rates for streaming radio are not set "artificially low" any more than mechanical royalties (iTunes and CDs), SiriusXM royalties or FM radio (publisher/songwriter) are (those are all set by the government, and are all a much smaller percent of revenue). Why does the government set rates? Because the music industry violated the Sherman Anti-trust act when they conspired through PROs to fix prices. You also assume that rates will rise next year, failing to consider the many direct deals that Apple (iTunes Radio), iHeartMedia, and Pandora all struck for equal to lower rates, deals the CRB is legally required to consider in their rate setting (iHeartMedia is requesting an 80% royalty cut!).

    Also regarding Spotify's free-market model, many artists (Taylor Swift, Beatles, AC/DC, Garth Brooks, Tool, Aaliyah, etc) are opting out (all of them are on Pandora). The reason artists are taking a stand is because a Spotify subscriber will never again buy music. If it gets any worse Spotify will have no choice but to increase payouts (resulting in subscription price hike).
    Mar 3, 2015. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Competitor For Pandora To Deal With [View article]
    Risky trade, insane pessimism is already very much priced in. Interesting you choose YouTube as your short trade catalyst, just saw this:

    http://nyti.ms/17OYCIw

    "In January, Pandora delivered more audio to mobile devices in the United States than YouTube did video, according to comScore."
    Mar 3, 2015. 06:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora Is Even More Overvalued Than You Think [View article]
    FB ad ROI is the one that is debatable, but migration of time spend to mobile continues and ad money continues to follow, but has a very long way to go. As for P video/display ads being 'never be looked at', P is selling them, brought in $260M last year, ~1/3 of their ad revenues.
    Mar 3, 2015. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora Is Even More Overvalued Than You Think [View article]
    @imapedestrian,
    Like where your head is at, interesting development:

    Pandora Captures Mobile Attention Crown From Facebook:
    http://mklnd.com/1DMqsAj

    And FB valuation is ~$180/user compared with ~$38/user for Pandora, suggesting Pandora 5x undervalued!
    Mar 2, 2015. 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JMP starts Pandora at Market Perform rating [View news story]
    @TJ,
    Yes, vinyl is increasing, increasing from nearly zero to slightly above near zero, lol (2014 vinyl sales $0.1B compared with CDs at $7B and digital at $6B).

    @manic,
    Always can count on you to throw your hands up in a debate and levy an insult instead. I take it you have no rebuttal to anything I wrote? The market is wrong on this one, wait and see.
    Mar 1, 2015. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JMP starts Pandora at Market Perform rating [View news story]
    @Isaiah,
    Correct. A key point here is that Pandora is the only radio service that has monetized, not Apple, not Spotify, not iHeartMedia. On-Demand services will certainly continue to gain in popularity, as will personalized radio, but the latest evolution of "lean forward" and "lean back" listening styles is different than in the past. In previous decades FM radio listeners also purchased music (vinyl, tapes, CDs), so the markets could coexist (radio as discovery). But with streaming, if one pays for a subscription to an on-demand service (Spotify, Beats, Google) they will no longer buy music, but also, if the service has a decent playlist generator (not all do), they will no longer listen to streaming radio services (Pandora, iTunesRadio, iHeartMedia). It's becoming an either or proposition.

    But also, as we've seen, purely subscription based on-demand services have had a very difficult time growing (Rdio, Google, Beats, all stagnant). Whereas Spotify, which is On-Demand but also has a "radio" feature (that uses CRB pricing) has seen strong growth. So as the leader in the personalized radio space, Pandora is still a potential acquisition target for those attempting to grow in the On-Demand space (Google, Microsoft are leading contenders, but Yahoo and Facebook could also be interested). What would a buyer get? The largest global streaming audience (even though P is only in the US, AUS & NZ, they have more listeners than any of the multi-national streamers), the most mature ad team (P is the only streamer on STRATA & MediaOcean radio ad buying platforms and also the only streamer with MRC accreditation in hundreds of local markets), the most platform agnostic (1000s of integrations into basically anything that can stream: all mobile platforms and holding their own quite well against native offerings on iOS and Android, all game players, Rokus/smartTVs/receivers, Sonos, 100s of auto make's dashboards) and the best playlist generator.

    Though I'll add, I don't see a buyout of Pandora as a necessity for them to flourish, in fact I think a strategic acquisition of their own could allow them to compete in On-Demand to the extent that becomes more viable from a monetization standpoint (buy Rhapsody for example). But none of this will happen until after CRB findings this Dec (which will likely be huge for P on many fronts, in addition to putting to rest concerns over their going forward royalty fee structure, there could be ancillary benefits, for example, CRB could remove the pureplay restrictions that have hindered consolidation in the space).

    Strong buy.
    Feb 27, 2015. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora gives up some gains as Macquarie initiates coverage [View news story]
    Not as funny and you with your cut & paste! Just the article link next time TJ.
    Feb 18, 2015. 06:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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