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jazgr8

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  • A Look At Sirius XM's Falling ARPU [View article]
    Wow, that's a headache-inducing, run-on math exercise to muddle through. That said, it appears the only real substance here in terms of conclusions is for now, actually a question. You see the change in the GM OEM relationship as something that should increase ARPU whereas Sirius states the opposite. I guess we won't know which it is until the company explains why it put a damper on revenues per user.
    May 14 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius SAC Drops 19% - Or Did It? [View article]
    CN - This is kind of "data gymnastics" without much real meaning - at least to me. I believe what matters with any data point used to evaluate company performance is that its components stay consistent over time. If the calculation of SAC was based on the same components for Q4 as it was for Q3 and/or Q4 a year ago then it's useful information. And, if it went down 19% then, contingent on understanding why, that's likely a good thing.


    And, it also doesn't really matter what components are chosen by the company to make up that data set. I don't care if they include advertising as part of SAC or if they place that cost in another data point such as "selling costs" or "demand creation." Again, as long as they don't shift such data from one category to another without announcement, that's what matters.


    As a converse case in point, most of us know that the costs and revenues associated with the company's relationship with GM changed in Q4 2013. While all it really did was shift certain costs and income from one time period to another, it represented a significant change in the manner that subscriber numbers are presented versus previous periods. That matters.
    Feb 14 12:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Forever Ad-Free Music Channel Strategy - Good For Business? [View article]
    RS - "To that end, if Sirius raises both revenue and profit expectations to a level where the Street approves and rewards the stock with a higher multiple - and if that guidance was based on a new revenue stream that you disagree with -- in this case ads -- will you not give it a chance to work?"

    No, probably not and certainly not in the long-term. If I really believed that a lot of investors might just take management's word on something even if I thought it was wrong, I might look for an initial "dumb money" bump, but then I'd sell.

    Look, when Coca Cola announced the launch of New Coke I'm sure the company thought it would be successful and some investors went along with them. Those that disagreed might have sold their shares because of it regardless and they would have been right as it was a disaster.

    I personally believe that Sirius adding advertising to their music channels would be a disaster so I would sell my stock. Good news is I don't have to face that decision because Meyer agrees.
    Dec 9 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Forever Ad-Free Music Channel Strategy - Good For Business? [View article]
    That's not a logical argument. I have confidence in Siri's management, but if they were to add advertising to their music channels I would strongly disagree and would thus loose that confidence. I don't believe it would end up adding revenue to the company because I believe they would lose subscribers, potentially a lot of them.

    Does that make any of us "smarter than the CEO?" Only time would tell that.
    Dec 7 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Forever Ad-Free Music Channel Strategy - Good For Business? [View article]
    I totally agree with Meyer and disagree with this author.


    "a short 10-second gap of infomercials every hour or so" will change one of the most important reasons Sirius is successful, wouldn't even come close to generating the kind of revenue increases you seek and is an oxymoron anyway to anyone who knows anything about the advertising business.
    Dec 6 09:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Sirius XM Conspiracy [View article]
    To me the evidence suggests there are none of these types of conspiracies going on. Not between Liberty and Sirius and certainly not involving the investment houses.

    What I've seen is that Malone and Sirius have a much broader view and that these ebbs and flows are something they simply accept as part of their longer business strategies.
    Oct 28 03:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Subscriber Headwinds Ahead [View article]
    Wow! Talk about a circular argument. Using your own logic, your analysis doesn't hold.


    If subscriber growth from new cars starts to level off, why would the deactivations not level off as well? Why would they continue to increase at a higher rate when your analysis proves that these rates work very closely in concert with each other?


    On the other hand, your analysis suggests that used cars are a significant, somewhat untapped "tailwind" of subscriber growth. If that's true then one would expect that deactivations will rise commensurately with that new and growing group. But, unless the deactivation rate increases for some reason, the net result is all good for Sirius.
    Sep 29 09:47 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM To Launch Low Cost Subscription [View article]
    Thanks. Doing the research is not a problem for a company of such resources. It's easy for them to find out what subs are listening to both overall and within slices of the pie. They can talk with them to determine pretty clearly what a response would be to lower cost tiers and/or more advertising.

    Frankly, I would be shocked if they had not already done much of this kind of research.

    I know they sell some advertising on particular channels, but it's not much in the scheme of things and I personally believe it should stay that way.
    Sep 15 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM To Launch Low Cost Subscription [View article]
    Thanks CN.

    My personal opinion is implementing lower cost options is a potentially positive thing if they are carefully vetted ahead of time through research to ensure cannibalization of current, high-value subs is minimized.

    I don't agree with doing so via advertising supported options. Sirius is really not an advertising seller which I believe is one of its major competitive advantages and diluting that would be a negative for me.
    Sep 13 01:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Foray Into Telematics Just Became More Complicated [View article]
    I would say that what he often does is simply play "devils advocate" rather than glass half-empty. In that context, it's a good thing in my view. I believe in the company's prospects and think it has a lot more room to run, but not to at least consider any potential dangers ahead would be unwise.
    Sep 3 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Foray Into Telematics Just Became More Complicated [View article]
    Agree, but what that suggests to me is they have a strong position against Apple, Google and the GPS guys, not necessarily Sirius.

    Seems to me that Sirius is the one with the strength in content.
    Sep 3 10:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Foray Into Telematics Just Became More Complicated [View article]
    I actually think you have it backwards my friend.

    Nokia/Microsoft is a device, software company trying to get a foothold in the dashboard to compete in the burgeoning telematics business.

    Sirius XM is an entertainment business, already with a huge foothold in the dashboard adding strong telematics capabilities as a defense to keep that huge foothold.
    Sep 3 09:01 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SoundExchange Sues Sirius XM For $100 Million - Should You Care? [View article]
    Thanks for the information. Agree it's not likely to affect the share price regardless.

    This will likely settle out of court for something or Sirius will prevail, but that depends on the details. I wonder why this was not filed much earlier if the supposed infractions date back to 2007. That's a bit informative as to what the merits of the case might be in my view.

    Thanks again.
    Aug 27 06:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM: Service Lane? Yeah, It's A Big Deal [View article]
    Interesting. I would have thought it might be better if Sirius was to pay the dealer a commission for each Service Lane customer who signs up for the trial. However, in reading the specifics Sirius makes it clear in two places that no dealer needs to push the trial. Interestingly, they put that statement in BOLD which indicates to me that dealers are reluctant to hawk the service aggressively.

    Anyway, I think it's a good program and certainly won't hurt, but it was instructive to see that.
    Aug 26 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sirius XM Does Not Need To Raise Prices [View article]
    Richard, I don't believe anyone "hates" you. It's more that you write as if your opinion is fact and you tend to very conveniently (in my view) gloss over data that opposes your points and exagerate data that support them. I will also say that I don't know how good your knowledge of business is in a "broad" sense. However, it is clear to me that your knowledge of marketing issues, which includes pricing issues, is less than expert. You like directness and honesty, just giving you some.
    May 31 11:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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