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  • What Exactly Is Risk: Part II [View article]
    Here was a 2 part article on risk which didn't even mention the Kelly Criterion.

    Not that the Kelly Criterion is the only thing to consider.

    There are fads and trends in the investment community. Trends and fads about risk are consequently going to be discussed.

    As long as you reach your goal, risk can be ignored. (Bo & Luke Duke used this theory every time they jumped the General Lee.)
    Apr 18 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why My Coffee Is Costing So Much More This Year [View article]
    If the economy is recovering, and inflation is possible, then the PM to buy is palladium.

    Gold, not so much. Lots of gold out there, and not much real need for gold.

    Palladium, on the other hand, is the cheapest metal to use in catalytic converters.

    Now, if the economy is not actually recovering, and we actually have inflation, (doubtful on the second part), gold might do reasonably well. Gold does well in periods of negative interest rates.

    Gold's glory days are over. Maybe in another decade or two, but for now, the price of gold is going down.
    Apr 17 05:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Graphic - Case Study: San Jose Hiked Minimum Wage [View article]
    I know wage slaves who make much more per hour than the federal minimum wage.

    Their wage slavery is caused by their poor economic decisions, not their income.

    I like the 10th amendment. If applied to minimum wage legislation, the decision would go to the states. Hopefully, the states would let their citizens choose their own minimum wage.
    Apr 15 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Graphic - Case Study: San Jose Hiked Minimum Wage [View article]
    This seems to be a rather narrow study, as there are more industries out there than just fast food.
    Apr 14 06:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    I bought GCVRZ post merger.

    Amazing, it brought a smile to my face today.

    Not enough to make up for all the previous frowns, but it is a start.
    Apr 7 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scandal Time [View instapost]
    Chris, I understand. I followed you to Harvest. It is a fun game, but it is a game. I don't sweat too much over games.

    I have noticed that my relative performance on Harvest is quite volatile. I haven't kept good records, of course. Still, it is obvious that I am better on defense than I am on offense.

    I don't understand this, but it shows up both on Harvest and in real life. If nothing else, I worry less about market drops than most do.

    Maybe I am overthinking this.
    Mar 14 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ugo Gussalli Beretta Makes A Move [View instapost]
    While the best things about Tennessee have already been mentioned, I will add one more. Drive north for a few minutes, (or more, but not much more), and you are usually in Kentucky, where I live.

    I will admit that I have not researched TNs hall tax.

    I live fairly close to the TN/KY state line. TN people drive north to buy groceries, as KY does not charge sales tax on most food. They used to drive north to buy lottery tickets, but the TN lottery put an end to that. At one time we KY 18 year olds drove south to buy beer. Now, it is 21 on both sides. Their is an establishment south of me which straddles the line, they sell beer on the TN side, and have dancers on the KY side. (I haven't been there, a friend told me it is quite tame, but this is the buckle of the bible belt, and so it was controversial when proposed. I haven't heard much about it lately).

    At least I can welcome Beretta to the south. Though, I can remember a time when Maryland would have been considered at least an honorary member of the South.

    What can I say? I am from Kentucky, a border state which combines the grace and charm of the North with the brisk efficiency of the South.
    Mar 14 08:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lobster [View instapost]
    To be fair, lobster is the classic "sell it or smell it" food.

    With no means of refrigeration or preservation, it had to be eaten quickly.

    If I lived under the same circumstances, I would rapidly tire of lobster also.

    When Saturday Night Live did the telephone poll on boiling or saving Larry the Lobster, I decided not to vote. After all, it would have cost fifty cents!
    Feb 24 08:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Better Strategy Than Passively Owning Gold [View article]
    Money + Interest - Taxes, doesn't look so good. At least not for me.

    Cap gains tax on gold doesn't look so great either, but at least it is a bit lower than that on cash.

    I do believe one should consider the tax consequences of a gold vs. cash investment. Of course, no one can predict the tax consequences of either in the future.
    Feb 20 08:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If Adam Smith Were Alive, He Would Be A Dividend Investor [View article]
    Adam Smith didn't have a high opinion of corporations. Though perhaps the South Seas Bubble had a bit to do with that.

    He thought that banks and canal companies, with their simple rules of operation, were the best for small investors. The operation of the East India Company obviously had some thing to do with his thinking here.

    The world has changed greatly since the time of Adam Smith. I think the one thing that would most surprise him today, if he were to be resurrected, would not be the technological advances, but today's stock market, providing small investors with good returns. It is not sole proprietorships and partnerships which provide today's investors with good opportunities, but corporations. Some thing Adam Smith would find remarkable.
    Feb 15 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 7-Year Cycle That Will Crush Uninformed Investors, Again [View article]
    7 does indeed seem to be a magic number. 7 year cycles have been noticed since ancient times.

    But, I don't worry about it too much. The crash of 87 may have come a bit late, or maybe it came 13 years too early?
    Feb 3 07:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blame It On The Rain [View instapost]
    As the late, great George Carlin's hippie dippie weatherman once said, "Tonight's forecast, dark!".
    Jan 22 05:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Systemic Risk Forum [View instapost]
    Flechettes are indeed great fun to shoot, and the SCIMITR load might even be the way to go, if they were available.

    There is a load commercially available, which fires 3 almost full bore size balls stacked in a straight line. I never tried it, because the level of recoil is obvious, and I promised my shoulder some relief in my later years.

    Winchester makes a duplex load with a slug and 3 pellets of buckshot, I used to load a slug with 6 pellets that patterned extremely well, and hit like the hammer of Thor. But, it was painful on both ends. Those who like recoil might like them, however.
    Jan 20 05:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Systemic Risk Forum [View instapost]
    I hate to be a wet blanket, but 10mm spheres won't stack very well in a 12 gauge shell. Conventional OOO buck (.36") stacks 2x2x2x2 in a 2 3/4" 12 gauge shell. OO (.33") buck stacks 3x3x3.

    Some people cast buckshot from linotype alloy, which is quite a bit harder than lead, but not as dense. Such loads carefully assembled will provide tight patterns at long range.

    The US military tried flechette loads in the 50s and 60s, but never really perfected the concept. Inferior copies of these loads are available from time to time, but quality is questionable.
    Jan 19 07:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Systemic Risk Forum [View instapost]
    Early in the Reagan administration, I purchased a case of assorted freeze dried foods, This was 6 #2 cans packed in a cardboard box, the actual food being in a pouch. This was the core of my emergency food supply for many years.

    A little over a year ago, I thought I should open one of the cans to determine how well the food had survived. I don't have the exact dates handy, but it was about 30 years of storage, in a utility room of 2 ordinary houses. Relatively decent conditions, but I am sure it went through temperature swings of 40 degrees F in that time, due to a couple of heating and cooling failures. Never higher than 90 or lower than 50 however.

    Long story short, I opened one of the cans and ate the contents. The color of the food had faded a bit, (best eaten by candlelight, I suppose), but the taste was still good, and it seemed quite nutritious to me. Too salty for my now middle aged tastes, but most people would probably like it just fine.

    This technology works extremely well. As long as the cans are kept dry they keep extremely well. Expensive, bulk rice and beans would be much cheaper, but the freeze dried foods would be a very good treat in an emergency situation. For most of us, they would easily last for the rest of our lives.
    Jan 18 04:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment