The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze [View article]
John, once again thanks for providing strong arguments with hard numbers. Can you tell me where you found the number for GHG credits? I have only seen discussion of ZEV credits. When you parse out the GHG credits, the GM on Model S operations is only about 1.5%. Any thoughts of reaching 25% by the end of the year are purely illusionary.
ZEV credits are fundamental to Telsa's success. The credits are by far their largest source of income, much larger than their manufacturing income. As an additional benefit when they sell ZEV credits to their competitors, it allows the competitors to postpone their own EV development. Thus it secures Tesla's position on top of the heap.
I disagree that this is the first red flag; red flags abound. To my mind the most important red flag is that they only achieved 5.2% gross margin on automotive sales last quarter, once you strip off the ZEV credits. Can GM be improved to 25% by the end of the year? Seriously?
@Julian, I will never try to convince anyone what the short term price of a stock will be. However, for a company to be successful long term, it must be able to make a product at a profit level that will at least cover expenses. It doesn't matter how cool or revolutionary the product is.
I get my backlog data by reading the TMC forums. Here's what I see: people who reserved a car in March are getting their cars delivered in May. It doesn't matter whether it's a 60 or an 85. Maybe everyone is lying. If so, then my data is wrong. But I don't see anyone waiting 3 months anymore, let alone 5 months.
Again I'm not trying to convince anyone, I'm just reporting what I see. Without the benefit of rose-tinted glasses.
Regarding backlog, new orders are already going directly into the prodution schedule. They are typically at 8 weeks from order to delivery which means that there is no backlog wating period. Of the older orders, the multi-red's are essentially complete and the 40 kWh's will be finished by the end of the month. Then there will be no more North American backlog. Of course, there's still the European reservations to work through. So despite the lack of backlog, there's every reason to expect 21,000 deliveries this year.
$25M in auto sales comes from the Shareholder's letter. Gross profit $96M minus ZEV credits $68M minus Dev Services $3M. That leaves $25M gross profit from Model S, Toyota sales, and the remaining Roadsters. 5.2% gross margin.
People tend to get far too emotional when they try to analyze Tesla. I just look at their sources of income: ZEV $68M, Auto Sales $25M,. DOE Warrants $11M, Currency Exchange $6m, Dev Services $3M, for a total of $113M. Then I look at their expenses: R&D $55M, SG&A $47M. for a total of $102M. Then I look at each item and estimate how each will change in future quarters and add it all up. Cold blooded and heartless I know, but it works.
Tesla Squeaks Out A First Ever Profit With The Help Of A DOE Stock Warrant, What's Next? [View article]
Ody, I really like your analysis approach, but I have a few comments about your numbers. First of all, you need to add a line for "Other Income". For Q1 this line represented $17M of the $11M net income. How much will there be on this line in future quarters? Also, I cannot reconcile the diminished ZEV credits while gross margin increases to 25%. To do that, they would have to increase the Model S gross margin by 20%. How is that possible?
Tesla Motors Earnings Beat Changes Everything [View article]
Certainly the most important thing going forward is to achieve a 25% gross margin on automotive operations. Then they will not have to rely on $17M in one-time charges or $68M in ZEV credits to generate a profit. Setting aside the ZEV credits, they grossed $25M on automotive sales of $487M. That's a gross margin of 5%, an enormous increase over the -10% posted in Q4. If they can continue to improve at this rate, they will easily achieve Musk's target of 25% by the end of the year. I expect that their operation is very inefficient right now, so it should not be hard to find another $18-20k savings per car.
Tesla Earnings Preview: Watching Model S Sales And Gross Margins [View article]
I'm with you, CO. But I'm thinking that even $90,500 will be light. There was a big push to expedite P85 deliveries and most customers were paying the service contract up front. I'm predicting $530M revenue from Model S, including reg credits. I don't expect the reg credits will be itemized separately. We'll know in 48 hours.
Tesla Motors Q1 Earnings Preview: Are We Setting Up For A Blowout Quarter? [View article]
The improved financing product changes the loan term from 66 months to 72 months, and increases the down payment to 15%. I just don't see how this makes it affordable to 10 million more people. Am I missing something?
Tesla: The Good, The Realistic And The Ugly Outlook [View article]
Tesla's aggressive targets are for gross margin. From the gross profit, you need to subtract operating expenses which will total over $450M this year. How much profit per share will that leave?
Tesla Motors Q1 Earnings Preview: Are We Setting Up For A Blowout Quarter? [View article]
I had 4800 in my spreadsheet, but reduced it to 4750 based on Musk's guidance. For Dec-Feb, the VIN's were pretty much coming out in sequence so you could make a good estimate based on delivery reports in the forums. But then in March there were big holes reserved for red's and 60's to be built in April. So your guess is as good (and perhaps better) than mine. And as you can see, I'm expecting revenues of $532M on Model S alone (including credits).
Tesla Motors Q1 Earnings Preview: Are We Setting Up For A Blowout Quarter? [View article]
SWMT - Wow! This is by far the best constructed estimate that I've seen for TSLA on SA. My own estimate is quite similar. I include more revenue per car ($112k including credits), but assume a lower GM (17.5%). I also feel that powertrain sales to Toyota are lagging, and development services included some back payments in Q4, so my estimates for those are about half of what you show. We're exactly the same for operating expenses. Overall, my earnings calculation comes out about $10M less. In any event, I think there's going to be some surprise next Wednesday.
The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze [View article]
Tesla's First Red Flag [View article]
Tesla's First Red Flag [View article]
Key Questions From Tesla Skeptics [View article]
I get my backlog data by reading the TMC forums. Here's what I see: people who reserved a car in March are getting their cars delivered in May. It doesn't matter whether it's a 60 or an 85. Maybe everyone is lying. If so, then my data is wrong. But I don't see anyone waiting 3 months anymore, let alone 5 months.
Again I'm not trying to convince anyone, I'm just reporting what I see. Without the benefit of rose-tinted glasses.
Key Questions From Tesla Skeptics [View article]
Key Questions From Tesla Skeptics [View article]
Key Questions From Tesla Skeptics [View article]
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Tesla Earnings Preview: Watching Model S Sales And Gross Margins [View article]
Tesla Motors Q1 Earnings Preview: Are We Setting Up For A Blowout Quarter? [View article]
Tesla: The Good, The Realistic And The Ugly Outlook [View article]
Tesla Motors Q1 Earnings Preview: Are We Setting Up For A Blowout Quarter? [View article]
Tesla Motors Q1 Earnings Preview: Are We Setting Up For A Blowout Quarter? [View article]