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CoverDrive

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  • Tesla to start China sales this month [View news story]
    And if she quits, they'll find someone even better to replace her! That's the way it is at Tesla.
    Apr 11 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Model S sales level off [View news story]
    Actually, 1600/mo is no where near enough to cover expenses. At their current expense rate, they need about 3000/mo (worldwide) to break even on manufacturing operations. And expenses are going up dramatically. They are looking to fill over 1100 jobs right now.
    Apr 8 05:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Have March Numbers For Tesla And A Prediction For The First Quarter [View article]
    Two months is typical for any automaker.
    Apr 3 08:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Have March Numbers For Tesla And A Prediction For The First Quarter [View article]
    Taking the prediction a step further, let's predict Q1 earnings. Assuming similar gross margins as Q4 and a similar rate of lease purchase options and similar revenues, then the only major change is the increase in operating expenses. Tesla guided that operating expenses would be up $25.5M. So non-GAAP earnings should still finish about $20M positive. GAAP loss will be about $40M.
    Apr 3 06:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Have March Numbers For Tesla And A Prediction For The First Quarter [View article]
    Paulo, I told you that March would be a blockbuster month. I also expect that insideev's estimate of US sales is a little light, so overall Q1 deliveries should be right at 7000. Why is this different from Tesla's guidance of 6500? Tesla guided that the overseas delivery pipeline would have 1000 more cars in it than at the end of December. Based on Norwegian deliveries, I would say that they changed their minds and decided to empty it again.
    Apr 3 01:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Yes To GigaFactory [View article]
    jfsacal - Gas is also 300% more expensive in the US. A person like myself who spends $2000/yr on gas would instead be spending $500/yr on electricity. If I had solar panels with excess household capacity, I could sell the excess to the utility company or I could use it to fuel an EV. The net benefit of the solar panels is the same. The only thing that links PV's and EV's together is in the mind of the consumer.
    Mar 31 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Yes To GigaFactory [View article]
    The benefit that you garner from solar panels is identically the same whether or not you own an EV. You are simply choosing to put $500 of energy into your car each year instead of your bank account. Unfortunately a PV array is not free for me. Last time I did a cost study on PV cells, the payback period was 20 years assuming that no maintenance was required in 20 years. Maybe someday.
    Mar 30 05:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Yes To GigaFactory [View article]
    5 years? I drive 12,000 miles a year, so I would only save about $1500 per year on energy cost. And the Tesla maintenance contract is $600/yr, far more expensive than any ICE I've owned. I guess it all depends on what car you are comparing it to.
    Mar 30 10:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Yes To GigaFactory [View article]
    Quite right, Reel. I'm an advocate of electric propulsion, but I'm also pragmatic so I won't buy unless there truly is a cost-of-ownership savings. Actually, the Volt is competitive. The Model S is off the chart.
    Mar 30 10:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Yes To GigaFactory [View article]
    I find it impressive to think that Tesla can enter the battery manufacturing industry and beat the incumbents at their own game and make the Gen III affordable. To do that, they must be sitting on new battery technology that's half the cost. And probably twice the range, too. It's no wonder that some analysts are valuing the stock over $300.
    Mar 30 09:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Yes To GigaFactory [View article]
    My annual fuel cost is about $2000. If I switch to electric, it will be about $500. What number are you using for useful life?
    Mar 30 09:07 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Baird Is Singing A Strange Tune [View article]
    Good point - I did not notice the blank entry for deferred revenue. I have to believe it was erroneously omitted because without the deferred revenues, we're looking at under 12000 sales in the first half. Surely that can't be.
    Mar 19 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Baird Is Singing A Strange Tune [View article]
    Paulo - In Baird's table, the historical numbers are GAAP numbers, so I assume the projected numbers are as well. If so, then 1Q GAAP revenues are in line with 6500 units sold. But what's really alarming is that there is no growth projected in2Q. So does the massive increase in the second half revenue all come from China sales? And they're going to get cash out of China? Seriously?
    Mar 19 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Algorithmic Forecast For Tesla, But Is Now The Time To Buy? [View article]
    Fair enough, Glenn. When I calculate the gross profit from the non-GAAP revenue, I do in fact see a profit from operations in the 4th quarter, assuming that sales exceed 10,500 in the quarter. But I'm still seeing losses in the first 3 quarters. For example in Q1, I have 7000 units at an ARP of $100k, 25% GM yielding $175M gross profit. Operating expenses (projected to increase 15%/qtr) will be $195M, yielding a loss of $20M.

    For the year: 35000 units, $3.5B revenue, $935M gross profit, $975 operating expenses, $40M loss. Am I missing something?
    Mar 18 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Algorithmic Forecast For Tesla, But Is Now The Time To Buy? [View article]
    Does the algorithm predict when the "Loss from Operations" changes into "Profit from Operations"? My model, which includes 35,000 sales, does not show that happening this year.
    Mar 17 04:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
67 Comments
94 Likes