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  • Who Is Telling The Truth? Elon Musk Or Wards Auto? [View article]
    Once again, good stuff, Paulo. Not only did I reach the same conclusion, but Musk verified it as well. He said that US September sales increased 65%, so based on last year's 1500, we should be right at 2500 this year. It also means that the Q3 US total will be right around 3600. Well down from last year's 4350.

    P.S. - With EU sales below 1600, it also means that they will need 2500 or more from China to reach the Q3 guidance number. I have no insight into China sales, so we'll just have to wait and see.
    Oct 29 02:07 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tesla Deliveries Guidance Implications [View article]
    Paulo, I think you overestimated North American demand in Q2. The 2283 deliveries in Europe did not include about 200 for the UK. Therefore, your NA numbers are 200 high. Still, NA demand was up 3% for the quarter. A refreshing recovery following two quarters of double-digit NA decline.

    Maybe Norway will see a similar rebound in Q3. However, judging from July sales, they didn't get a very good drive off the tee.
    Aug 1 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: What About The Model X? [View article]
    Do you see any evidence that Tesla can make a plugin vehicle profitably?
    Jul 23 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Secret Bullish Guidance In Plain Sight? [View article]
    I'm surprised that the Model 3 will be introduced so far ahead of the Gigafactory. That sounds like a good strategy, as they will be able to judge customer acceptance before committing to full scale investment. That also seems to be consistent with Panasonic's investment philosophy.
    Jul 16 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why China Is The Most Important Part Of Tesla's Q2 Report [View article]
    I'd have to agree that building a supercharger network in China is going to be far more difficult than in the West. I don't see the authorities putting much priority on a charging network that only services one auto maker. From what I read about the businessman donating chargers, those were of the 240V/10A variety. While symbolically important, a charging rate of 10 MPH is not of much use for cross-country travel. Regarding Tesla's ability to use public fast charging, you will soon be able to purchase a CHAdeMO adapter cable for a mere $1000.
    Jul 15 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In The Land Of Irrelevant Numbers, Tesla Puts Down A Stake [View article]
    In my calcuation, I assume an average of 40 kWh per charge. How many SC charging bays are there? I'm guessing about 400, so that calculates out to 2 charges per day per bay. I'm not trying to argue whether that's good or bad. It's just easier for the human mind to comprehend than a GWh. I wonder why Elon didn't just report it in more understandable terms?
    Jul 11 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors' Q2 Delivery Guidance Hinges On China [View article]
    I'm expecting Tesla to come right in at the 7,500 guidance. NA sales flat at 3,400, EU (including 300 UK) down 500 at 2,600. And China/HK adding 1,500.
    Jul 10 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors' Q2 Delivery Guidance Hinges On China [View article]
    The charging infrastructure in China will need more government coopertion than in the U.S. In this country, we have lots of free parking and easy access to power grids. As a result, Tesla was able to roll out a Supercharger network without difficulty. In China, gov't officials will have to decide what goes where and how the power infrastructure can handle it. I'm not optimistic that they will give priority to a charging station that can service only one make of car.
    Jul 9 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors' Q2 Delivery Guidance Hinges On China [View article]
    @Bonaire, really good post. There's not much I can add except that Musk also stated that he expects UK sales to surpass Norway. Like the US/China market comparison, this also is a double-edged sword.
    Jul 9 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are Luxury Car Makers Looking The Other Way While Tesla Eats Their Lunch? [View article]
    How about not making one dollar? The company is 11 years old. Over one billion in cumulative losses. When do we see the pot of gold? And tell me again how they're going to manufacture batteries 30% cheaper than Panasonic? Does Panasonic not know to make batteries?
    May 9 08:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are Luxury Car Makers Looking The Other Way While Tesla Eats Their Lunch? [View article]
    It all boils down to the business case. Most companies prefer to invest in endeavours that make profit. Tesla lost $50 last quarter. What other company wants to do that?
    May 9 03:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla to start China sales this month [View news story]
    And if she quits, they'll find someone even better to replace her! That's the way it is at Tesla.
    Apr 11 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Model S sales level off [View news story]
    Actually, 1600/mo is no where near enough to cover expenses. At their current expense rate, they need about 3000/mo (worldwide) to break even on manufacturing operations. And expenses are going up dramatically. They are looking to fill over 1100 jobs right now.
    Apr 8 05:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Have March Numbers For Tesla And A Prediction For The First Quarter [View article]
    Two months is typical for any automaker.
    Apr 3 08:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We Have March Numbers For Tesla And A Prediction For The First Quarter [View article]
    Taking the prediction a step further, let's predict Q1 earnings. Assuming similar gross margins as Q4 and a similar rate of lease purchase options and similar revenues, then the only major change is the increase in operating expenses. Tesla guided that operating expenses would be up $25.5M. So non-GAAP earnings should still finish about $20M positive. GAAP loss will be about $40M.
    Apr 3 06:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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78 Comments
110 Likes