I think we'll get some type of bounce but I'm not risking too much from the long side and I am mostly short. We're just really oversold going into options expiration and the institutions love to push the market in the opposite direction before options ex. In any case, the bears are in control and we're certainly headed for YTD lows within the couple of weeks.
I made a good amount on the way up, the trick was getting out right before the landslide haha ;)
Dollar Yields to Euro, Sterling Recovers [View article]
I believe ultimately what we're doing is bad for the dollar but more recently the problems in Europe which have been met with worse solutions are posing for bad fundamentals for the Euro.
Over here, you have QE 2 ending in a few weeks, the House rejecting the debt ceiling increase, Paul Ryan's bill passing the House, terrible economic data, DOW getting crushed all week long, dollar short covering on the COT reports, euro profit taking etc. Now not all of the above is guaranteed to happen (IE Paul Ryan's bill) but when these things are happening at the same time that the ECB is repeatedly creating reserves at a now higher interest rate to bail out Greece and Portugal, normally you would expect the dollar to rally or at the very least hold it's ground.
I am certain that the only reason it hasn't sustained the momentum it had in May is because GS is still ripping on the dollar. Personally, I don't see how much longer they'll continue to do that publically with QE 2 ending this month.
Dollar Yields to Euro, Sterling Recovers [View article]
:ast paragraph, what do you mean by "dollar negative"?
If the ECB kicks the can down the road as you say, then how on earth can that be bearish for the dollar when they are creating reserves to bailout EU nations? Also, the thought that we wouldn't yet enact new fiscal stimulus or another QE program can only make for bullish fundamentals for the dollar.
The Sound of Something Bad Not Happening...Yet [View article]
The market historically is higher the week of and the week after Memorial Day. However, it has a -2% return for the 2 months following. The market is close to losing Friday's gains and the dollar is still suppressed. There are too many divergences and abnormailities to justify and type of long position in equities right now.
Yeah whenever inflation shows up in the core they reduce food and energy then say they did so because they don't accurately represent inflation. In other words, there's a lot of inflation but we don't want you to know about it so go back to bed.
I thought central banks were supposed to provide stability and protect against disasters. Seems to me like they're just adding to the pain everytime they provide "assistance" packages to countries and institutions whose assets were rejected by the market.
Eh, I wouldn't weigh too much on the dollar/commodities correlation which didn't show itself on Friday. This was options expiration week. Volatility is always abundant and the institutions are always pushing prices in the direction they want them to go which sometimes forces asset prices to temporarily disregard positive correlations.
I think crude, commodities, the Euro, equities, and even bonds will be under some pressure for a few months as the dollar attracts investments while the situation in the EU remains smoltering hot.
I got out of the mining companies the friday before last, most of them lagged spot price and didn't make any new highs so I didn't miss out on any upside. I'm loving the beatdown silver is taking right now but I don't see nuclear war yet... sentiment isn't fully negative.
Silver Completes Cup And Handle Breakout [View instapost]
America Can't Escape China's Inflation [View article]
S&P Potential Head & Shoulders [View instapost]
I made a good amount on the way up, the trick was getting out right before the landslide haha ;)
Dollar Yields to Euro, Sterling Recovers [View article]
Over here, you have QE 2 ending in a few weeks, the House rejecting the debt ceiling increase, Paul Ryan's bill passing the House, terrible economic data, DOW getting crushed all week long, dollar short covering on the COT reports, euro profit taking etc. Now not all of the above is guaranteed to happen (IE Paul Ryan's bill) but when these things are happening at the same time that the ECB is repeatedly creating reserves at a now higher interest rate to bail out Greece and Portugal, normally you would expect the dollar to rally or at the very least hold it's ground.
I am certain that the only reason it hasn't sustained the momentum it had in May is because GS is still ripping on the dollar. Personally, I don't see how much longer they'll continue to do that publically with QE 2 ending this month.
Dollar Yields to Euro, Sterling Recovers [View article]
If the ECB kicks the can down the road as you say, then how on earth can that be bearish for the dollar when they are creating reserves to bailout EU nations? Also, the thought that we wouldn't yet enact new fiscal stimulus or another QE program can only make for bullish fundamentals for the dollar.
The Sound of Something Bad Not Happening...Yet [View article]
Parallel Lines Never Intersect [View article]
Parallel Lines Never Intersect [View article]
Europe's Next Debt Crisis Will Be in Its Core [View article]
Crude Oil Staging a Comeback [View article]
I think crude, commodities, the Euro, equities, and even bonds will be under some pressure for a few months as the dollar attracts investments while the situation in the EU remains smoltering hot.
Molycorp: A True Value Play [View article]
Molycorp: A True Value Play [View article]
Molycorp: A True Value Play [View article]
Silver Enters Bear Market [View article]
Silver Enters Bear Market [View article]