Silver Is on the Brink of a Breakout [View article]
Mining companies generally lag during corrections. It means that the speculative money is getting off of the table and perhaps listening to the negative noise on the news. However, this is also bullish for long term fundamentals as it means that metals are not in a "craze" as the media claims.
Silver Under 'The J.P. Morgan Effect' [View article]
Well Great Panther, First Majestic, Fortuna, and Bear Creek are all up 50-100-200% since his recommendations, so clearly you're the loser for not "considering him seriously".
EUR/USD Update, Bullish Reversal In GWMGF [View instapost]
Yep, Japan has been looking in third world countries in Africa and Asia. Even though those countries present a lot of risk to mine in, they are convinced that they have a problem accessing REE's thanks to China and are desperate to find anything they can get.
EUR/USD Update, Bullish Reversal In GWMGF [View instapost]
I've said before that the Chinese are likely to cut all exports in the next year - year and a half. There's no company or set of companies worldwide that can meet demand save perhaps Molycorp if in fact they receive government funding.
EUR/USD Update, Bullish Reversal In GWMGF [View instapost]
I agree, and I like all of those mentioned. You should also check out Stans Energy, Ucore, and Pele Mountain.
Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has been also been lobbying for the US to get a move on regarding exposure to REE's. I think that by 2012 China will make another significant reduction in exports and even nations that have deposits will still fall victim to the supply squeeze as it takes years to get a deposit into production.
The companies like Stans, Ucore, Pele Mountain, and the ones you just mentioned are in the best position possible.
Molycorp's Valuation Just Doesn't Make Sense [View article]
I don't think they will. The SEC has them on a watch list because of big time short selling that has been going on. A hedge fund or ibanker must have tried to place an easy bet on them and when REE demand took off, they started losing money.
Molycorp's Valuation Just Doesn't Make Sense [View article]
Yeah, I'm not exactly in agreement with him as to his approach on the subject, (mainly because when you're in a trade/currency war you sometimes make your own bed, and in this case we did) but his concerns are dead on and those in Washington had better listen to him if they want our military that is as strong as it is because of technology advances to continue to have access to items such as NV/Thermal Goggles, Pred Drones, XM25's, etc.
Molycorp's Valuation Just Doesn't Make Sense [View article]
I recognize that future demand is not enough of an excuse for MCP's valuation, the reason why MCP appears overvalued based on MC/Earnings is not because of their current profitability, it's because of the position that they are in regarding the future supply scarcity.
Molycorp has access to Mountain Pass which produced enough REO's to meet the world's demand. However since China gained a monopoly on REE's, the mine has been no longer needed. However, China will soon reduce their exports to almost zero and there are only a handful of running REE deposits across the globe. Molycorp has the biggest one that will be operational.
There are in fact many more, larger REE deposits in the world however many of them are in countries with lots of geo-political risk (I.E. Mongolia) and even excluding that from the equation, it takes 5-7 years to even begin to get one into production - even with government backing.
China will continue to reduce their export quotas and I expect by 2012 that there will be a dire supply issue and the existing REE producers like MCP and others listed above will be in position to make huge profits. Companies like Ucore or Great Western may enter JV's with MCP if the government doesn't get involved in funding any domestic projects.
Silver: Multiple Bullish Indicators Signal Breakout [View article]
@ Chris, I agree, this pullback is a technical pullback not a fundamental pullback. All I have heard since Jan 1st is bullish news for silver (China reducing exports by 58%, COT reports, central banks buying PM's) but the spot price has been beat up due to trivial things like crowded trades and overbought conditions.
This is very bullish because it means that silver is not impervious to market corrections, and that the trade is not yet crowded at least from a long term perspective. I think that silver could lag for another week or two but all the positive news that has been coming out won't be kept down for long.
I'm also glad that silver producers have been beaten up even harder than spot, because it has presented us with a great discount.
Gold And Silver Hit Hard One Day Prior To Options Expiration [View instapost]
Well silver is definitely much more oversold than gold if you take into account the fundamentals. For example silver exports in China dropped 58% for 2010 and I'd be willing to bet that they will drop even more this year. My analysis on silver goes for more of a trading perspective and I wouldn't tell anyone not to buy at this point just because I believe it is so undevalued even at $31.
But I do think that they have decoupled a bit here as referenced by the last 4 months of 2010. I think silver will continue to outperform gold as the world's industrial and consumer demand grows whereas the main purposed of holding gold is for hoarding.
Evolution of the 3 Largest Gold Royalty Companies - And Their Investment Potential [View article]
That wasn't exactly the point I was trying to make. Just owning stocks in producers or just owning bullion both have risks involved, which is why it's prudent to not have all your eggs in one basket.
When Gold Correction Ends, Uptrend Should Remain Intact [View article]
From my own personal expierience, it's the other way around right now. There's something of a jewelry district in uptown Miami (about 4-6 blocks of pawn/jewelry shops) that I used to have to go when I went downtown, 95% of the stores there have "cash 4 gold" in the window. There's also a bunch of pawn stores in North Miami that never were there before that claim to be gold buyer's and coin collectors etc..
When Gold Correction Ends, Uptrend Should Remain Intact [View article]
Well I personally think that we are in the beginning of a correction that will last until (coincidentally) until the middle or end of January, maybe later. That may fall in line with your prediction of the Chinese New Year being a catalyst on the buy side.
The reason why I stated above that we weren't in one (right now) was because we didn't break the 50 Day MA, and despite the recent consolidation, we're still very overextended from support.
If you study the pattern that took place in gold last year, you'll notice that we have formed a simliar trading pattern this year and particularly at the end of last year where we corrected lower before breaking back out again in early 2010. We'll have to pay close attention here to see what gets us out of the slowdown and I think you're theory on the Chinese New Year may be a contributing factor.
Silver Is on the Brink of a Breakout [View article]
Silver Under 'The J.P. Morgan Effect' [View article]
EUR/USD Update, Bullish Reversal In GWMGF [View instapost]
EUR/USD Update, Bullish Reversal In GWMGF [View instapost]
EUR/USD Update, Bullish Reversal In GWMGF [View instapost]
Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has been also been lobbying for the US to get a move on regarding exposure to REE's. I think that by 2012 China will make another significant reduction in exports and even nations that have deposits will still fall victim to the supply squeeze as it takes years to get a deposit into production.
The companies like Stans, Ucore, Pele Mountain, and the ones you just mentioned are in the best position possible.
Molycorp's Valuation Just Doesn't Make Sense [View article]
Major Buying Opportunity Developing in Precious Metals [View article]
Also, I think gold will hold @ $1325 based on the weekly charts.
If the author is right however, then yes, that would be an epic buying opportunity.
Molycorp's Valuation Just Doesn't Make Sense [View article]
Molycorp's Valuation Just Doesn't Make Sense [View article]
Molycorp has access to Mountain Pass which produced enough REO's to meet the world's demand. However since China gained a monopoly on REE's, the mine has been no longer needed. However, China will soon reduce their exports to almost zero and there are only a handful of running REE deposits across the globe. Molycorp has the biggest one that will be operational.
There are in fact many more, larger REE deposits in the world however many of them are in countries with lots of geo-political risk (I.E. Mongolia) and even excluding that from the equation, it takes 5-7 years to even begin to get one into production - even with government backing.
China will continue to reduce their export quotas and I expect by 2012 that there will be a dire supply issue and the existing REE producers like MCP and others listed above will be in position to make huge profits. Companies like Ucore or Great Western may enter JV's with MCP if the government doesn't get involved in funding any domestic projects.
online.wsj.com/article...
^ Schumer wants the US to do something about China's grip on REE production.
Silver: Multiple Bullish Indicators Signal Breakout [View article]
This is very bullish because it means that silver is not impervious to market corrections, and that the trade is not yet crowded at least from a long term perspective. I think that silver could lag for another week or two but all the positive news that has been coming out won't be kept down for long.
I'm also glad that silver producers have been beaten up even harder than spot, because it has presented us with a great discount.
Gold And Silver Hit Hard One Day Prior To Options Expiration [View instapost]
But I do think that they have decoupled a bit here as referenced by the last 4 months of 2010. I think silver will continue to outperform gold as the world's industrial and consumer demand grows whereas the main purposed of holding gold is for hoarding.
Evolution of the 3 Largest Gold Royalty Companies - And Their Investment Potential [View article]
Evolution of the 3 Largest Gold Royalty Companies - And Their Investment Potential [View article]
When Gold Correction Ends, Uptrend Should Remain Intact [View article]
When Gold Correction Ends, Uptrend Should Remain Intact [View article]
The reason why I stated above that we weren't in one (right now) was because we didn't break the 50 Day MA, and despite the recent consolidation, we're still very overextended from support.
If you study the pattern that took place in gold last year, you'll notice that we have formed a simliar trading pattern this year and particularly at the end of last year where we corrected lower before breaking back out again in early 2010. We'll have to pay close attention here to see what gets us out of the slowdown and I think you're theory on the Chinese New Year may be a contributing factor.