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Dan Synek

Dan Synek
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  • Sourcefire: Short-Lived Upsells Have Masked Decelerating Growth And Decline Of IPS [View article]
    So this didn't go the way it was intended! It would be interesting if there was something to be learned from this, except that shorting technology stocks is a difficult business. Is there any specific point where the author can see where his analysis went wrong?
    Jul 23 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond Hill Investment Group: The Next 100-Bagger? [View article]
    So it is now 6 years later and the stock is up precisely 0% (though thanks to dividends the stock has still been a reasonable investment). So what do you think about the prospects for the next 6 years? 10 bagger?
    May 13 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CNA: A P&C Insurance Turnaround Story [View article]
    Thanks Tom, I have seen a couple of analysis (this one has some links: ) recommending buying a stub on L, but having read your analysis on CNA I decided that I would go for the simpler approach and just buy L and sit on it for a few years! By the way the analysis in value investors club also sees CNA as a turn around case.
    Jul 10 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CNA: A P&C Insurance Turnaround Story [View article]
    Tom, I really enjoyed your analysis of CNA and to me it makes an investment in L one of those rare instances where there is a good upside with little risk. Reading your articles in addition to a few other bloggers is a good learning experience for me, but what I often miss is how the author sifted out the story form the deluge of data on the internet. Did you first see that CNA could be a turnaround by reading the interview in the Insurance Journal. If so, is reading trade journals part of your research process? Which ones? Or was it your interest in Loews and its discount that made you dig deeper into CNA? Or another blogger? Please share!
    Jul 9 08:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Loews: A Chronic Value Candidate [View article]
    The Brooklyn Investor had a thorough and insightful analysis of L in with among other things a sum-of-parts analysis over the years. His conclusion is similar to yours, but I would be interested in any comments you might have on his analysis.
    Jun 14 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corinthian Colleges: Looking Back At My Most Important Stock To Own For 2011 [View article]
    The problem is not that you were wrong. Except for Madoff, we all are, now and then. I do my own research and COCO still is on my list of interesting stocks.
    But a good trader or investor analyzes and learns from his mistakes. You did not, and you demonstrated it so beautifully that for once I felt like doing a bit of investment scatology in the service of fellow investors.
    Feb 1 07:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corinthian Colleges: Looking Back At My Most Important Stock To Own For 2011 [View article]
    This article, Mr Weinstein, is so contrary to the advice you gave a year ago, while at the same time being self congratulatory, that for once I will override my habits not to waste time on commenting garbage.

    You wrote a series of articles on COCO in the beginning of 2011 which unreservedly pushed COCO as a value investment, i.e. an investment to buy and hold. You also recommended writing naked puts in it, which is even riskier. That you have the nerve to congratulate yourself is really out of this world and well into Orwellian territory.
    For the future benefit of anyone considering your verbiage as information here are just a few citations from two of your articles in 2011. I will not put a link to them, use google to find the source:
    I believe COCO is a must own, the most important long, and if you only had one stock to pick going into the new year why COCO is it. In fact, COCO is the only stock I currently am long with.

    COCO is a stock that has a P/E of about 3 and a forward P/E of less than 15 (which I believe is incorrect, and too high because I believe profits will be higher than many are expecting).

    I know all to well what a short squeeze feels like and this in my opinion has the makings for a grand one.

    I view COCO as the most important stock to own going into 2011 and the most likely to at least double in price within the next 12 months.

    I believe COCO will move up from the abyss much like they did before, and have people wondering why they didn’t buy when it was bargain priced.

    I believed a month ago - and continue to believe - that COCO is not going to fail given what is publicly known at this time. I now believe that the prospects for COCO are higher than when I last wrote, as more information has come out.

    If the rules are changed, it would appear that all else being equal, the total revenue downside risk shrinks greatly, allowing for COCO stock price to rise. If the rules are not changed, it would appear to me that the lower forward earnings are already priced in with a forward PE well under 12.
    Jan 18 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Simon Property Group: 3 Reasons I'm Short [View article]
    Shorting SPG is too scary for me, but I think an interesting trade would be to short SPG and at the same time hedge by buying GGP.
    A superficial analysis seems to indicate that GGP is much more sanely valued, but I don't have the experience to value their shopping malls and compare to SPG. What do you think?
    Nov 2 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rail Traffic Surges To A 3 Year High, Reducing Inflation Fears [View article]
    Don't you mean deflation? If not, could you please tell us why higher utilization of rail should mean less inflation? The more it is used the more expensive it should get!
    Oct 7 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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