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  • Magnum Hunter: Not Your Grandfather's Value Play [View article]
    The big discounts in the bonds and in the preferred decreased quite a bit this quarter; good signs in advance of a move in the common shares.
    Mar 6, 2015. 01:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Resources Entering Survival Mode [View article]
    The other alternative is consolidation; this possibility has rewarded MHR investors with very nice gains in the debt and the preferred shares this quarter.
    Mar 5, 2015. 12:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Intelligent Way To Own Shares In American Realty Capital Properties [View article]
    Buy when oversold, sell when overbought. Lather, rinse, repeat. Herein lies the difference between being a long term, buy-and-hold investor and being a trader.
    I don't day trade, but by dollar volume my entire portfolio turns over about 4 times per year. I know that a lot of REIT investors find that idea horrifying, but I'd rather buy low, sell high, and then buy low again than watch those nice gains accumulate and then dissipate as the sector as a whole alternates between hot and cold. My REIT money is mostly dry powder right now, including the 24% profit booked on selling ARCP yesterday. I think Brad is right, the common could be stalled for awhile after the run up from $8. I'll wait for the next fed tantrum and start over then.
    Mar 5, 2015. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Biotechs Under $5 That Could Light Up In 2015 [View article]
    Bret, I'm sure that you're familiar with the Feuerstein-Ratain Rule and how it relates to oncology firms with market caps under $300M vis-a-vis the idea that markets are efficient weighing machines; to that end, does OGXI's $50M market cap give you pause in terms of the market's implicit consensus about the likelihood of success?
    Mar 4, 2015. 06:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Biotechs Under $5 That Could Light Up In 2015 [View article]
    SBIO is another ETF with about 75 emerging biopharm names that are at Phase II or better. I put my left over crash and burn money on failed spec trades there, but generally I'm pleased to play along with the same idea of let's pick 12-15 promising names and give them 1/3 of a position each. I'm not sure about this idea that trading these names individually comes with some exorbitant cost, I'm paying $4.99 per trade.
    Mar 4, 2015. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hercules Technology Growth buying the dip in its stock [View news story]
    Nice yield, but HTGC is stuck in a "two steps forward, three steps back" dance.
    I'm not expecting NAV appreciation, but the income is fine. I'm back to about dead even with my basis.
    Mar 4, 2015. 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation [View article]
    I would add this question: was investing in Gramercy Property Trust (GPT) when it was reconstituting itself into a pure REIT from the ashes of a scorched mREIT/REIT hybrid speculative, or was it contrarian? Remember that GPT had a lot of work to do to right itself and begin paying a dividend. It seems that the distinction here is that if we trust management we're contrarians, and if we don't, we're speculators.
    I trust NAV, and on the day I bought I also trusted RSI, and that's what makes me a contrarian, with an $8.12 basis and a 20% return to date.
    Mar 4, 2015. 08:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Realty Capital Is Still A Speculative Security Suspended In Animation [View article]
    Contrarian, per Investopedia: "An investment style that goes against prevailing market trends by buying assets that are performing poorly and then selling when they perform well." For contrarian investors, the margin of safety is that the securities are backed by tangible, valuable assets that have been temporarily devalued by the market in response to some trouble, resulting in a low ratio of price to earnings or some other metric like FFO. Those who bought ARCP after the price dropped could be alternatively characterized as contrarians.

    Investors may want to consider not only diversification across sectors, but across investment styles and objectives. Investment in securities for income, value, growth, and speculation are all valid goals, and the mix can be adjusted to suit the risk appetite and financial situation suitable to each investor. There are certain advantages to speculation, in that the potential reward is often as outsized as the risk.

    All of the enormous success stories in large biotech were based on the speculation that the drugs would succeed and be approved, not only for the benefit of investors, but for mankind as a whole. For example, Hepatitis C is curable now because investors speculatively invested in Pharmasset and Gilead. Long live speculation and speculators willing to take risks.
    Mar 4, 2015. 07:55 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CBI Gives Investors False Hope [View article]
    "And with each month CBI is shelling out another $40 million".
    Huh? Just because there is an ongoing lawsuit and disputed allegations of the causes of construction delays and the economic harm alleged to be a result of those delays doesn't mean that CBI is paying those damages every month -- or ever.
    Ever hear of a CGL policy? This article rehashes two items of stale news, one wholly irrelevant (rig count???) and the other already baked into the price, and does so in a misleading manner. This article could have been posted on Twitter.
    Mar 4, 2015. 02:00 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's A List Of The Most Heavily Shorted Stocks In The Russell 1,000 [View article]
    I don't know when you put the chart together, but ICPT has moved a smidge since then.
    Mar 3, 2015. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron falls below $30 on Nomura downgrade [View news story]
    Per TipRanks, Romit Shah is right 56% of the time and the average return on his picks is 9%. I'd say that's just a smidge better than a coin toss, and one could outperform him by buying SPY and taking a nap.
    Mar 3, 2015. 01:14 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron falls below $30 on Nomura downgrade [View news story]
    Hard to understand the current price and $30 PT in comparison to peers. But what do I know, I thought the same thing about AAPL at $400.
    Mar 3, 2015. 01:09 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Achillion: The Dark Side [View article]
    Hard to tell whether ACHN adds much to a regimen that does so well on a stand alone basis. Especially with a sample I can count on two hands and one foot.
    It's the classic "post hoc ergo propter hoc" logical fallacy, like the rooster that crows every morning just before sunrise every morning and thinks he's what's causing the sun to appear.
    Feb 27, 2015. 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Micron And Samsung: Resistance Is Futile! [View article]
    The '17 LEAPS are getting cheap right now, long MU and INTC; should be seeing the benefits of the 3D revolution in 2H of '16.
    Feb 27, 2015. 07:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beating The Little Book That Beats The Market [View article]
    Interesting; there is a ready-to-go Greenblatt screen in the All-Star folder on Portfolio123. I wonder how closely it emulates his thinking. The overlap between the author's partial list and the value/growth names in my own portfolio is about 40%, which is comforting.
    Feb 27, 2015. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment