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  • Apple's September 9 Event: Will There Be A Surprise Product? [View article]
    Apple TV likely becomes a convergence of computer, game console, entertainment center, Home Kit, etc. Integration of Siri can open up nearly unlimited capabilities and ease of use. We'll know in 11 days.
    Aug 29, 2015. 12:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Buy Before Earnings, Not Before Product Releases - A Statistical Study On Apple Products [View article]
    It's been widely published - I think the source is Taiwan suppliers as reported in trade newspapers.
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Winning The Smartphone Upgrade Race In China [View article]
    You flatter me. I'm just an amateur investor who has time to read a lot. Hope you're wrong about this correction going into the fall. At 3% a day even a true believer like me will lose heart.
    I bought more Jan 2017 leaps on Friday. Hoping for a bounce this week so I can sell upside Jan 2016 calls against them. This Q earnings will be OK I think, the real show-me quarter will be Dec. I think Jan 2017 are good calls to own. You'll have a new iPhone cycle, a new, maybe more business-friendly president in the White House, and maybe a repatriation deal by then. A repatriation deal, as much as it makes total sense, is unlikely before the election. Too much politics involved on both sides. I think Apple will be over $200 a share by 2020, very conservatively.
    Aug 23, 2015. 12:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Winning The Smartphone Upgrade Race In China [View article]
    Thanks. Thought about writing for SA but my expertise is pretty limited. I follow a handful of stocks, but am passionate about just one, Apple. Really like FB too, but Apple is fairly transparent and there is so much written about it. I'm a businessman, and I like following this stuff. Apple is an amazing, and very under appreciated company.
    Aug 22, 2015. 11:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Buy Before Earnings, Not Before Product Releases - A Statistical Study On Apple Products [View article]
    Last year guidance was $65 billion (middle of range) they beat by nearly 10 billion. This year the stock is so beaten down, anything over $70b will be greeted with relief.
    Aug 22, 2015. 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Should Take Advantage Of Rate Pullback [View article]
    Apple Stock Price Catalysts:

    Markets:
    1). China growth is slowing, but their economy is not shrinking, GDP dropped from 7% to ~ 3%, but the middle class is expected to quadruple between 2012 and 2022.
    2). Apple Store count in China going from 22 now to 40 by mid 2016
    3). LTE covers only 12% of subscribers today in China and is growing rapidly
    4). In the U.S., Intent to buy iPhone has risen from 42% to 49% according to a recent survey
    5). iPhone is gaining share in many parts of Europe and the Americas
    6). iPhone is growing rapidly in India (albeit from a low base)
    7). The U.S. Dollar has weakened recently against many World currencies, by about 3%

    iPhone:
    1). The iPhone 6S is more compelling than most "S" models, besides the normal speed bump, it has force touch, a stronger chassis, better cameras, better radios, better fingerprint reader, and much better battery life.
    2). Every new iPhone model has outsold the prior model
    3). The number of 5S owners ready for upgrade is extraordinarily high, relative to prior cycles
    4). Apple has ordered ~ 10 million more iPhone 6S to be mfg than comparable time last year
    5). Android conversions to iPhone are running much stronger than most people expected
    6). Microsoft and Blackberry phone sales are dying and Apple will pick up a lot of those users
    7). The current model iPhone 6 and 6+ will drop in price in Sept and further drive Android conversions in the mid-priced tier
    8). New pricing models by the carriers encourage early, even annual, upgrades to the latest models.
    9). The gravitation to larger screen phones is not over, but actually accelerating as shown in the product mix numbers reported each quarter of 6 vs 6+. This will drive higher ASP's.
    10). I expect the price of the iPhone 6S and 6S+ to be higher than the prior year. Maybe only $20, or possibly as much as $50. Many parts going into the new phones are more costly. This will maintain margins and increase revenue.
    11). A new color, pink gold, will entice the trend setters and status conscious, especially in Asia, to upgrade early

    New products & services:
    1). Apple watch is going to sell at least 5 million in the Dec quarter, and maybe as much as 10 million. This will be additive, regardless of the numbers. It won't reach it's full potential for some years, but will still contribute billions in sales in 2016.
    2). A new Apple TV device will be a quantum leap over the old one and, besides generating billion dollar revenue numbers in the Dec quarter (there are 25 million old Apple TV devices that need upgrading), it will drive growth in iTunes, the App Store, and, eventually a TV streaming service.
    3). The vastly improved new iPod Touch devices should stabilize iPod sales numbers this holiday season.
    4). A new lineup of iPad devices, including a new 12.9" model designed for power users or as a laptop replacement, should stop the slide in iPad numbers going forward.
    5). Apple Music streaming service will be a small contributor to revenue (under 1% my guess) but is important for the ecosystem.
    6). Car Play's value, similar to Music, will mainly be it's contribution to the ecosystem. I don't know what the revenue model is, so won't even make a guess on dollars.
    7). Apple Pay is a growing revenue producing service, and also an important part of the Apple ecosystem. Very hard to quantify the revenue contribution, but it is very fast growing.
    8). Apple TV streaming service won't be a 2015 product, but will likely come in 2016 and could be a game-changer. The drive for a-la-carte TV services with watch anything, anytime capability is going to change the way we watch TV forever. Even modest success in this area should translate to many billions a year in revenue, not to even mention the ecosystem benefits.
    9). An Apple car is coming, and it could be a lot sooner than many think. Unlike Tesla, Apple is unlikely to build a factory. Apple is reportedly talking to BMW and others who are already building electric cars, an Apple designed car with a tie-in to a world-class manufacturer could be for sale as soon as 2018. Like most new Apple products, it will probably take years to gain serious market share, but starting with something with limited capabilities then rapidly evolving it into something really great is how Apple captured 92% of all the profits in the cell phone industry.
    10). Apple's Mac products are going to continue taking share in the shrinking PC market as the "halo" effect of the iPhone strengthens. Apple's percentage of the profits in the PC market, which is already over 50%, will continue growing.

    Apple the Stock:
    1). Apple is trading today below its price on January 2nd. 2015
    2). Apple has ~ $50 billion more cash today than 9 months ago.
    3). Apple's share count is ~ 4% lower than it was 9 months ago
    4). Apple's trailing earnings per share are ~45% higher than 9 months ago
    5). Apple will earn at least $9.00 per share in FY2015 up from $5.68 in FY2014, that's 59% YOY earnings per share growth.
    6). Apple is continuing buying back shares and could easily reduce share count by another 5-6% in the next 12 months, especially at today's depressed price.
    7). There is talk of a deal in Congress for a new round of much-needed infrastructure construction. This construction is supposed to be paid for by a special, one-time repatriation tax deal which Apple would be the #1 beneficiary with ~$190 billion currently parked overseas.
    8). If a repatriation deal is done, Apple could buy back, theoretically, nearly 1/3 of the shares outstanding which would result in a 50% boost to EPS. While it's unlikely Apple would use all the money in this manner, and there would be a tax to be paid, the effect to the stock price would be dramatic and immediate. This is on the agenda for when Congress returns from recess in a few weeks.
    9). Apple has accrued for U.S. taxes on overseas profits at a rate that is undoubtedly much higher than the tax rate likely under any repatriation deal, so any deal would result in a one-time gain for that fiscal year - probably several dollars per share.
    10). Apple, today, based on FY2016 expected EPS of $9.00, Apple's P/E is under 12. The P/E on the S&P 500 is ~19. Apple has a lower P/E than IBM (13) which has no growth, and is actually shrinking, and roughly half the P/E of McDonalds, which is closing stores and has been treading water for years. Adjusted for cash less debt, Apple's P/E is ~9. The P/E of a company slowly going out of business.
    Aug 22, 2015. 02:28 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Buy Before Earnings, Not Before Product Releases - A Statistical Study On Apple Products [View article]
    Apple Stock Price Catalysts:

    Markets:
    1). China growth is slowing, but their economy is not shrinking, GDP dropped from 7% to ~ 3%
    2). Apple Store count in China going from 22 now to 40 by mid 2016
    3). LTE covers only 12% of subscribers today in China and is growing rapidly
    4). In the U.S., Intent to buy iPhone has risen from 42% to 49% according to a recent survey
    5). iPhone is gaining share in many parts of Europe and the Americas
    6). iPhone is growing rapidly in India (albeit from a low base)
    7). The U.S. Dollar has weakened recently against many World currencies, by about 3%

    iPhone:
    1). The iPhone 6S is more compelling than most "S" models, besides the normal speed bump, it has force touch, a stronger chassis, better cameras, better radios, better fingerprint reader, and much better battery life.
    2). Every new iPhone model has outsold the prior model
    3). The number of 5S owners ready for upgrade is extraordinarily high, relative to prior cycles
    4). Apple has ordered ~ 10 million more iPhone 6S to be mfg than comparable time last year
    5). Android conversions to iPhone are running much stronger than most people expected
    6). Microsoft and Blackberry phone sales are dying and Apple will pick up a lot of those users
    7). The current model iPhone 6 and 6+ will drop in price in Sept and further drive Android conversions in the mid-priced tier
    8). New pricing models by the carriers encourage early, even annual, upgrades to the latest models.
    9). The gravitation to larger screen phones is not over, but actually accelerating as shown in the product mix numbers reported each quarter of 6 vs 6+. This will drive higher ASP's.
    10). I expect the price of the iPhone 6S and 6S+ to be higher than the prior year. Maybe only $20, or possibly as much as $50. Many parts going into the new phones are more costly. This will maintain margins and increase revenue.
    11). A new color, pink gold, will entice the trend setters and status conscious, especially in Asia, to upgrade early

    New products & services:
    1). Apple watch is going to sell at least 5 million in the Dec quarter, and maybe as much as 10 million. This will be additive, regardless of the numbers. It won't reach it's full potential for some years, but will still contribute billions in sales in 2016.
    2). A new Apple TV device will be a quantum leap over the old one and, besides generating billion dollar revenue numbers in the Dec quarter (there are 25 million old Apple TV devices that need upgrading), it will drive growth in iTunes, the App Store, and, eventually a TV streaming service.
    3). The vastly improved new iPod Touch devices should stabilize iPod sales numbers this holiday season.
    4). A new lineup of iPad devices, including a new 12.9" model designed for power users or as a laptop replacement, should stop the slide in iPad numbers going forward.
    5). Apple Music streaming service will be a small contributor to revenue (under 1% my guess) but is important for the ecosystem.
    6). Car Play's value, similar to Music, will mainly be it's contribution to the ecosystem. I don't know what the revenue model is, so won't even make a guess on dollars.
    7). Apple Pay is a growing revenue producing service, and also an important part of the Apple ecosystem. Very hard to quantify the revenue contribution, but it is very fast growing.
    8). Apple TV streaming service won't be a 2015 product, but will likely come in 2016 and could be a game-changer. The drive for a-la-carte TV services with watch anything, anytime capability is going to change the way we watch TV forever. Even modest success in this area should translate to many billions a year in revenue, not to even mention the ecosystem benefits.
    9). An Apple car is coming, and it could be a lot sooner than many think. Unlike Tesla, Apple is unlikely to build a factory. Apple is reportedly talking to BMW and others who are already building electric cars, an Apple designed car with a tie-in to a world-class manufacturer could be for sale as soon as 2018. Like most new Apple products, it will probably take years to gain serious market share, but starting with something with limited capabilities then rapidly evolving it into something really great is how Apple captured 92% of all the profits in the cell phone industry.
    10). Apple's Mac products are going to continue taking share in the shrinking PC market as the "halo" effect of the iPhone strengthens. Apple's percentage of the profits in the PC market, which is already over 50%, will continue growing.

    Apple the Stock:
    1). Apple is trading today below its price on January 2nd. 2015
    2). Apple has ~ $50 billion more cash today than 9 months ago.
    3). Apple's share count is ~ 4% lower than it was 9 months ago
    4). Apple's trailing earnings per share are ~45% higher than 9 months ago
    5). Apple will earn at least $9.00 per share in FY2015 up from $5.68 in FY2014, that's 59% YOY earnings per share growth.
    6). Apple is continuing buying back shares and could easily reduce share count by another 5-6% in the next 12 months, especially at today's depressed price.
    7). There is talk of a deal in Congress for a new round of much-needed infrastructure construction. This construction is supposed to be paid for by a special, one-time repatriation tax deal which Apple would be the #1 beneficiary with ~$190 billion currently parked overseas.
    8). If a repatriation deal is done, Apple could buy back, theoretically, nearly 1/3 of the shares outstanding which would result in a 50% boost to EPS. While it's unlikely Apple would use all the money in this manner, and there would be a tax to be paid, the effect to the stock price would be dramatic and immediate. This is on the agenda for when Congress returns from recess in a few weeks.
    9). Apple has accrued for U.S. taxes on overseas profits at a rate that is undoubtedly much higher than the tax rate likely under any repatriation deal, so any deal would result in a one-time gain for that fiscal year - probably several dollars per share.
    10). Apple, today, based on FY2016 expected EPS of $9.00, Apple's P/E is under 12. The P/E on the S&P 500 is ~19. Apple has a lower P/E than IBM (13) which has no growth, and is actually shrinking, and roughly half the P/E of McDonalds, which is closing stores and has been treading water for years. Adjusted for cash less debt, Apple's P/E is ~9. The P/E of a company slowly going out of business.
    Aug 22, 2015. 02:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Winning The Smartphone Upgrade Race In China [View article]
    Apple Stock Price Catalysts:

    Markets:
    1). China growth is slowing, but their economy is not shrinking, GDP dropped from 7% to ~ 3%
    2). Apple Store count in China going from 22 now to 40 by mid 2016
    3). LTE covers only 12% of subscribers today in China and is growing rapidly
    4). In the U.S., Intent to buy iPhone has risen from 42% to 49% according to a recent survey
    5). iPhone is gaining share in many parts of Europe and the Americas
    6). iPhone is growing rapidly in India (albeit from a low base)
    7). The U.S. Dollar has weakened recently against many World currencies, by about 3%

    iPhone:
    1). The iPhone 6S is more compelling than most "S" models, besides the normal speed bump, it has force touch, a stronger chassis, better cameras, better radios, better fingerprint reader, and much better battery life.
    2). Every new iPhone model has outsold the prior model
    3). The number of 5S owners ready for upgrade is extraordinarily high, relative to prior cycles
    4). Apple has ordered ~ 10 million more iPhone 6S to be mfg than comparable time last year
    5). Android conversions to iPhone are running much stronger than most people expected
    6). Microsoft and Blackberry phone sales are dying and Apple will pick up a lot of those users
    7). The current model iPhone 6 and 6+ will drop in price in Sept and further drive Android conversions in the mid-priced tier
    8). New pricing models by the carriers encourage early, even annual, upgrades to the latest models.
    9). The gravitation to larger screen phones is not over, but actually accelerating as shown in the product mix numbers reported each quarter of 6 vs 6+. This will drive higher ASP's.
    10). I expect the price of the iPhone 6S and 6S+ to be higher than the prior year. Maybe only $20, or possibly as much as $50. Many parts going into the new phones are more costly. This will maintain margins and increase revenue.
    11). A new color, pink gold, will entice the trend setters and status conscious, especially in Asia, to upgrade early

    New products & services:
    1). Apple watch is going to sell at least 5 million in the Dec quarter, and maybe as much as 10 million. This will be additive, regardless of the numbers. It won't reach it's full potential for some years, but will still contribute billions in sales in 2016.
    2). A new Apple TV device will be a quantum leap over the old one and, besides generating billion dollar revenue numbers in the Dec quarter (there are 25 million old Apple TV devices that need upgrading), it will drive growth in iTunes, the App Store, and, eventually a TV streaming service.
    3). The vastly improved new iPod Touch devices should stabilize iPod sales numbers this holiday season.
    4). A new lineup of iPad devices, including a new 12.9" model designed for power users or as a laptop replacement, should stop the slide in iPad numbers going forward.
    5). Apple Music streaming service will be a small contributor to revenue (under 1% my guess) but is important for the ecosystem.
    6). Car Play's value, similar to Music, will mainly be it's contribution to the ecosystem. I don't know what the revenue model is, so won't even make a guess on dollars.
    7). Apple Pay is a growing revenue producing service, and also an important part of the Apple ecosystem. Very hard to quantify the revenue contribution, but it is very fast growing.
    8). Apple TV streaming service won't be a 2015 product, but will likely come in 2016 and could be a game-changer. The drive for a-la-carte TV services with watch anything, anytime capability is going to change the way we watch TV forever. Even modest success in this area should translate to many billions a year in revenue, not to even mention the ecosystem benefits.
    9). An Apple car is coming, and it could be a lot sooner than many think. Unlike Tesla, Apple is unlikely to build a factory. Apple is reportedly talking to BMW and others who are already building electric cars, an Apple designed car with a tie-in to a world-class manufacturer could be for sale as soon as 2018. Like most new Apple products, it will probably take years to gain serious market share, but starting with something with limited capabilities then rapidly evolving it into something really great is how Apple captured 92% of all the profits in the cell phone industry.

    Apple the Stock:
    1). Apple is trading today below its price on January 2nd. 2015
    2). Apple has ~ $50 billion more cash today than 9 months ago.
    3). Apple's share count is ~ 4% lower than it was 9 months ago
    4). Apple's trailing earnings per share are ~45% higher than 9 months ago
    5). Apple will earn at least $9.00 per share in FY2015 up from $5.68 in FY2014, that's 59% YOY earnings per share growth.
    6). Apple is continuing buying back shares and could easily reduce share count by another 5-6% in the next 12 months, especially at today's depressed price.
    7). There is talk of a deal in Congress for a new round of much-needed infrastructure construction. This construction is supposed to be paid for by a special, one-time repatriation tax deal which Apple would be the #1 beneficiary with ~$190 billion currently parked overseas.
    8). If a repatriation deal is done, Apple could buy back, theoretically, nearly 1/3 of the shares outstanding which would result in a 50% boost to EPS. While it's unlikely Apple would use all the money in this manner, and there would be a tax to be paid, the effect to the stock price would be dramatic and immediate. This is on the agenda for when Congress returns from recess in a few weeks.
    9). Apple has accrued for U.S. taxes on overseas profits at a rate that is undoubtedly much higher than the tax rate likely under any repatriation deal, so any deal would result in a one-time gain for that fiscal year - probably several dollars per share.
    10). Apple, today, based on FY2016 expected EPS of $9.00, Apple's P/E is under 12. The P/E on the S&P 500 is ~19. Apple has a lower P/E than IBM (13) which has no growth, and is actually shrinking, and roughly half the P/E of McDonalds, which is closing stores and has been treading water for years. Adjusted for cash less debt, Apple's P/E is ~9. The P/E of a company slowly going out of business.
    Aug 22, 2015. 01:58 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India Is The Next Growth Opportunity For Apple [View article]
    iPhones need to be made all over the world for many reasons. The one I think is the most critical is the political risk in a country like the PRC.
    Aug 12, 2015. 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse lifts view of MLPs, sees 40% upside on revision to mean yield [View news story]
    My view is that the natural gas pipeline MLP's and KMI are particularly attractive right now for several reasons. First, they've been lumped in the energy complex by ETF's and funds that are being sold off because of the oil price drop. They are looking at volume increases from the coming export of LNG and the EPA war on coal. The ones that have reported recently are demonstrating good earnings and good dividend coverage. And, finally, their yields have been climbing as they have sold off while generally long term interest rates have been falling of late. At some point there is going to be a recognition that these NG pipeline companies are a steal right now.
    Aug 11, 2015. 12:30 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Key Trend Remains Intact [View article]
    Logically, Congress and the President should be all over this concept of repatriating of offshore cash, and all parties that have voiced an opinion say they are, but, we have an election coming up. In fact, nothing will be done, because the progressives will abhor any kind of tax breaks for corporations, and the conservatives want the economy mired in this pathetically low growth stagnation thru November 2016. After that, yes it's possible.
    Jul 30, 2015. 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Cook Visits Vice Premier, China Telecom [View article]
    Apple's pricing in foreign currency doesn't change with the exchange rate. Usually, it's set at introduction and is fixed until the next product is introduced. When currency moves are extraordinary, like the last 6 months, an adjustment may be made, like in Russia earlier this year.
    May 14, 2015. 06:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Thanks For The Stock Boost; Now How Bout More Cash? [View article]
    I think you meant R&D. R&R is rest & recreation.
    Apr 26, 2015. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Thanks For The Stock Boost; Now How Bout More Cash? [View article]
    As an options investor, show me the buyback, to hell with the dividends. Actually, I hope they do both. A regularly raised dividend supports the stock price. As far as retirement income, you can sell a few shares periodically if the dividend is too low - the tax treatment is the same.
    Apr 26, 2015. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Watch Strategy Embraces The 80-20 Rule [View article]
    There is an FDA approved blood sugar monitor that can talk to the iPhone and hence the watch and display the user's blood sugar reading on their wrist. I met a guy who has it and needs to take out his iPhone to see the reading. Having it display the number on the watch is a no-brainer. It's no for everyone, but for those people who are diagnosed with diabetes, it will be a must-have.
    Apr 19, 2015. 12:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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