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  • Apple Gross Margins Impressive And Sustainable  [View article]
    The accruals for warranties is chump change compared to the $25-30 billion Apple has accrued for taxes on overseas profits. If Apple treated this the same way Google treats it, Apple would have EPS of well over $10 in 2015.
    Feb 7, 2016. 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: More Bonds Please  [View article]
    After buying back 1 billion shares the stock has a P/E of 10. Wall Street only cares about growth. Buy Sirius Satellite Radio, Box, companies like that. Nothing crazy like Netflix (that ship has sailed) or Tesla. Just solid tuck-in perfect fits for Apple's business model. That's what they should be doing with the money. Buybacks don't work, they just signal growth is over.
    Feb 1, 2016. 10:55 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Inventory Build Bodes Ill For Apple Stock  [View article]
    We don't know what new features the iPhone 7 will have, but we do know it will be improved in many ways, and will be a different design. You have a 99% customer satisfaction rate. You have over 600 million iPhone active users, and you know 60% of those users have iPhones older than the 6. While 2016 may end up with lower iPhone sales than 2015, 2017 will be higher than 2015. That and the buyback, will drive EPS back to solid double-digit growth and the P/E will reflect that.
    Jan 27, 2016. 11:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Inventory Build Bodes Ill For Apple Stock  [View article]
    Everybody is looking at this in the wrong way. The iPhone 6 was too successful and caused a distortion in the normal growth track. The long term iPhone sales trajectory is from the lower left to the upper right. This dip (6S cycle) is a direct result of the 6 cycle spike. The 7 will see a return to "normal" low double digit unit growth.
    Jan 27, 2016. 10:57 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Serious Problems  [View article]
    iPhone sales are suffering from a aberrational iPhone 6 year where sales exceeded normal growth by a wide margin. If I'm right, 3 years from now a 10 year chart of iPhone sales will show a spike in 2015 followed by a dip in 2016, but overall a line going from lower left to upper right.
    Jan 27, 2016. 10:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Holds The Key To Apple's Success In 2016  [View article]
    I sold my 6 and bought a 6S for a net cost of $300. For my $300 I got a significantly better phone in many areas. It's way faster, especially the fingerprint sensor. It's got a much better camera, 3D Touch, which is handy, and a lot of smaller improvements. If I waited 4 years to upgrade, maybe my monthly cost would be half, $12.50 instead of $25. I'd rather pay an extra $12.50 a month and always have the latest phone.
    Jan 15, 2016. 03:25 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Holds The Key To Apple's Success In 2016  [View article]
    30% growth, YOY would be spectacular. You have to remember the much harder comps ahead of us. The market will rejoice at anything above 20% YOY in China.
    Jan 15, 2016. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Holds The Key To Apple's Success In 2016  [View article]
    It's clear the iPhone 6S is underperforming, but I think a lot of the weakness is because the 6 models are identical looking and are relative values. While they are cheaper, the effect on ASP will be minimized by the shift to Plus size phones and higher memory options. I think iPhone units will be slightly higher than last year, ASP slightly lower.
    Jan 15, 2016. 01:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Holds The Key To Apple's Success In 2016  [View article]
    Yes, bling like Rolex, BMW, Chanel, Prada.... All mere fads.
    Jan 15, 2016. 01:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay On The Sidelines With Kinder Morgan While Leverage Remains Steep  [View article]
    The path is clear. Why wait till its $25?
    Jan 14, 2016. 09:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Capitulating To The Carriers (And The Regulators)?  [View article]
    Never ending stream of FUD. Even if the tool were available, Apple's iPhone satisfaction rate is higher than Android's and with more Android owners than iPhone, the conversions are going to be to iPhone rather than the other way around.
    Jan 12, 2016. 11:05 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Kinder Morgan Be An Acquisition Target?  [View article]
    I think a private equity takeover is more likely - KMI is begging for some financial engineering . There is no real synergy in a Exxon takeover of KMI, but huge synergy if Exxon takes over BP.
    Jan 11, 2016. 01:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Questions For 2016  [View article]
    They should spin off the App Store as a fast-growing stand-alone company. This would likely be valued at a high multiple and might be able to incorporate Android apps as an independent company. Currently with $20+ billion in sales and $6+ billion in gross profit, maybe $4 billion net, I could see it with a $150-200 billion market cap.
    Jan 6, 2016. 05:05 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Growing Pains Of Reality?  [View article]
    My error, FB's market cap is close to $300b
    Jan 6, 2016. 11:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Growing Pains Of Reality?  [View article]
    A good question is, what would the App Store be worth as a stand alone business? With the numbers they're putting up and the growth rate, it could easily be worth as much as a FB. $200 billion. So, if you back out the cash, and the App Store, the rest of Apple is only worth $175b?
    Jan 6, 2016. 11:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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