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  • Apple Investors Should Be More Cautious, Foxconn Data A False Positive [View article]
    I think the basic flaw in Alex's argument is that Apple buys all its components through Foxconn. My understanding is Apple buys all its own components and supplies them to Foxconn. Foxconn also supplies SOME of the aluminum chassis, probably just the machining, not the blanks. So, Foxconn's revenue would be something like $10-12 per iPhone (assembly + machining the chassis). This should be easy to verify, just look at Foxconn's total revenue numbers. If they're in the $15-20 billion USD per Q range I'm wrong, if they're far less, I'm right. Oh, looks like I'm right, Foxconn only has about $1 billion USD in revenue a quarter. Alex, you're wrong.
    Nov 23, 2015. 10:12 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 25% Allocation To Apple - Too Much Risk? [View article]
    Likewise, I am heavily overweight Apple. Only one thing worries me, political risk. Apple needs to manufacture in other countries besides China. I don't totally trust the Chinese. I know it's not a high percentage risk, but it would be a fiasco if China reverted to their communist roots, or started a shooting war over the South China Sea. Loss of China as a strong market would hurt Apple badly, but the loss of Mfg capacity could be catastrophic. I have FB as an equal position to AAPL and like that they have no China exposure. I'm 69 years old and have made millions in AAPL over the last ten years, but I'm not blind to the risks.
    Nov 21, 2015. 01:07 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPad Pro: Another Reason To Sell Apple? [View article]
    I'll be buying the iPad Pro to replace my Gen 2 iPad I've been using as a portable TV in my master bathroom and on the treadmill. It's got a bigger, sharper picture, much better sound and faster WiFi (the Gen 2 sometimes stutters where my home WiFi is weak).

    I think the big market will be in the Enterprise. It'll replace tons of paper forms. Businesses will realize billions in savings in printing, storing, updating, and the labor required to scan or store and retrieve the completed forms. Airlines quickly realized how much they could save putting pilot's manuals on tablets, banks and many other businesses will quickly realize how iPad Pros will replace tons of paper forms.
    Nov 14, 2015. 02:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2016 Won't Be Apple's Biggest Year [View article]
    I accept as fact that orders for certain 6S parts have been reduced ~10%, but view this as a product mix issue. Fact is, the 6 looks exactly the same as the 6s, and many people would rather save the $100. In the latest conference call, Tim Cook guided to both higher iPhone unit volume and revenue for FQ1. I don't think he is lying. If the year old 6 is a higher percentage of the product mix, and both higher memory and more Plus models are also in the mix (as reports confirm) then Tim's guidance of higher rev and units AND reports of cutbacks in 6S parts can BOTH be right.
    Nov 14, 2015. 12:09 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Decoding Apple's North San Jose Land Mystery [View article]
    My guess, it's for battery R&D and maybe prototype battery manufacturing. There are two things needed to put a self-driving electric car into mass production; better batteries and better A.I. . Apple is addressing both. They will not manufacture a car, but they will certainly design it.
    Nov 14, 2015. 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Hammered: What Are My Units Really Worth? [View article]
    Don't overestimate the anti-carbon movement either. Coal is being rapidly displaced by natural gas. Coal falling and NG rising is bad for railroads and good for pipelines. Electric cars run on electricity. More and more electricity is generated by NG. Until fusion reactors come on line in 2040 or later, NG is a growth industry.
    Nov 12, 2015. 11:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Q1 2016 Could Be A Harbinger Of Softer Days Ahead [View article]
    Tim Cook said 30% of new iPhone buyers were Android on their prior phone. Since Apple sells far fewer smartphones than Android, this is probably a single digit switch rate measured from the Android installed base. But, if the switch rate were identical, Apple would be a huge winner. Even if the switch from Apple to Android was double, Apple would be a huge winner.
    Nov 11, 2015. 12:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Q1 2016 Could Be A Harbinger Of Softer Days Ahead [View article]
    richbar, you are exactly right. 5% revenue growth and 5% share count reduction plus 2% dividend for 2016. But, there are a couple of "get lucky" lottery ticket events that can be reasonably expected in the next 12-18 months. First, a repatriation holiday is in the works - both parties agree so it should happen sometime in the next 18 months. Also, the skinny bundle over-the-top TV offering could be a big winner. That could be a first half 2016 event. Ether could make our 12% thesis low.
    Nov 11, 2015. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Q1 2016 Could Be A Harbinger Of Softer Days Ahead [View article]
    There are several likely causes of the lower build rate of the 6s phone, the main one being higher sales of last year's 6 and 6+ models. I would guess, given the identical form factors and the $100 lower price, a lot of people are passing up the 6s and 6s+ in favor of the less costly prior year models. In addition, there is a skew to the larger + models with higher memory. This would explain the Fitsu numbers and would correlate with Tim Cooks statement that he expects to beat YOY iPhone numbers in both dollar sales and units.
    Nov 11, 2015. 11:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Was Apple's Guidance Really That Weak? [View article]
    Good article. Apple will produce at least a 12% return in 2016, that's 5% organic growth, 5% share buyback and 2% dividend. I think this is conservative. A P/E of 13 is $120 today, and will be $135 a year from now. Besides that, there are a couple of "lottery tickets"; our politicians could finally get around to passing a tax repatriation holiday and Apple will get into the video streaming bundle business and that could move the needle. The car is years off.

    Own the stock (or LEAPS) and sell puts & calls depending on the swings in the P/E. When the P/E gets close to 15 sell calls, when it gets down to near 11 sell puts. You'll make a lot of money.
    Oct 28, 2015. 01:55 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: 13 Million iPhone Sales In Launch Weekend Is Nothing To Fear [View article]
    Everyone is focusing on the 6s and 6s+, which is fine, but it should be mentioned how strong Apple's second and third tier phones are looking for FY2016. Last year the second and third tier were the 5C and 5s. Compare that with having the 6 and 6+ and the 5s. I think everyone is going to be surprised how much the older models will contribute to Apples total iPhone numbers in the coming year.
    Oct 2, 2015. 01:28 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Sold 13 Million iPhones On Launch Weekend - That Should Frighten Investors [View article]
    So many material misstatements it's hard to know where to begin. Last year Apple sold 10 million, not 11m, Greater China (China, Taiwan & Hong Kong) was 27% of Apple's FQ3 revenue, not 40%, everyone rates the iPhone A9 processor as being at least a year ahead of any Android phone CPU. Also, your extrapolation of 5 of the 13 million being from China is wildly out of line with other analysts who put it more like 2m. If 2m is the correct number, that would put this year at 10% growth outside of China, that's better than expected. It would have been a 20 million unit weekend if Apple had the supply. And, the reason iPhone users upgrade every two years on average is they can afford to. iPhone users are economically advantaged compared to Android users.
    Sep 30, 2015. 03:57 PM | 30 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Bullish Outlook For Virtual Reality [View article]
    Love FB, own FB, but expect nothing from VR in near future, meaning years. Like 4K TV, VR will suffer for a long time from lack of content. May be big in 2025, but will play little or no part in FB earnings sooner, IMHO.
    Sep 29, 2015. 01:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Unique View Into iPhone Launch Timing And Year-Over-Year Holiday Compare [View article]
    Anecdotally, I've noticed a shift to the plus size phones this year and believe higher storage versions are selling better this year than last year. This should lead to higher ASP's and should more than offset the higher build cost of the S models.

    Regarding the weekend sales, I believe over 90% of the 13 million fell into FQ4 because there were very few deliveries on Sunday which only leaves in-store pickups. And, that's only Apple stores, because all other retail was counted when the phones were delivered to the stores or their warehouses. If you have ~400 Apple stores selling 1000 phones each on Sunday, that's leaves 12.6 million phones "sold" by Apple Fri & Sat.
    Sep 29, 2015. 01:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Upgrade Plan Subtly Drives Huge Volume [View article]
    I got an email from Sprint with a $15 a month price for a new 6S. I think it goes up to $22 if you trade it in after 1 year. Didn't read the fine print because I ordered mine through my company carrier, Verizon. But, $15 a month and no down payment is going to sell a bunch of iPhones.
    Sep 15, 2015. 05:58 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment