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  • Apple Rated Juicy: Why Would Anyone Be Bearish Into The iPhone 6 Launch? [View article]
    There is a strong possibility that sapphire glass will only come on the more expensive 32 & 64 GB models, leaving the 16GB base model with Gorilla glass. This will skew the ASP's to the upside and lend support to margins in the face of the costlier parts. JMHO.
    Aug 20 09:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of An Approaching Bear Market [View article]
    What caused the housing collapse and Great Recession of 2008 wasn't raising interest rates, it was loose lending standards that started much earlier. Look at Canada, they had no real estate bust, because they require a 20% down payment when buying a home. Our social engineering politicians are what caused the housing bubble, not the Fed.
    Aug 17 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Signs Of An Approaching Bear Market [View article]
    The prize goes to frogmaier. Extremely low Interest rates are driving money into equities. Stocks are at record highs precisely because bond yields are so low.

    Company balance sheets have never been better, and after all, the stock market is a market of companies. This last earnings period was better than most expected. Because of buybacks, the total value of the stock market is actually not near all time highs.

    Apple, for example, would have to go to the pre-split price of $770 ($110 post split) to match its highest market cap. and as buybacks continue, that number keeps going up. This bull market has a ways to go. The only bubble in sight is bond prices, and that's been in bubble territory for 4 years now, with no sign of ending.
    Aug 17 11:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Better Entry Point For Apple Will Become Available For Patient Investors [View article]
    As far as your "there's nobody left to buy Apple" because everyone is so positive already. Apple has $56 billion left in their current buyback program. They are buying back over 1% of their shares every quarter. There is a good chance that this buyback will be increased again next year. They don't need new buyers - they're the new buyer.
    Aug 3 01:52 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10%+ Dividend Payer Capstead Mortgage Corp. Is Just Loping Along To Profits. [View article]
    It's the best house in a scarey neighborhood (mortgage REIT's). It's not well understood or it would be selling at $25 a share. Sometimes mortgage rate spikes up or down create portfolio turnover (people seeking to lock in low rates) which raises expense and creates a small EPS shortfall. Every time that's happened it's been a buying opportunity, like now.
    Aug 2 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Bearish Case Keeps Me Bullish For Now [View article]
    I think big companies put in place a plan and execute a systematic buyback where shares are bought every day. I also think when an opportunity presents itself, like in April, Apple will take advantage of the price decline by accelerating the repurchase of shares. A scenario where Apple would discontinue their share repurchase is unlikely, but not impossible - a big acquisition, for example, might stop share repurchases.
    Aug 1 01:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Bearish Case Keeps Me Bullish For Now [View article]
    What many people fail to take into account is the reduction in share count over the next 6 quarters. Last quarter YOY EPS increase was more than half a result of share buyback. Apple has committed to at least $56 billion more in buybacks over the next 6 quarters, and this may be upped again in early 2015. A 10% share count reduction translates into a 11% EPS gain. So, without any gains in revenue and earnings, and the same P/E as today, Apple would be at $105 the end of next year. Now add new products & services, maybe taking some market share back from Android with the new larger screen iPhones. This stock could easily see $125 be end of 2015.
    Aug 1 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstead Mortgage selling at premium as spreads narrow, prepayments pick up [View news story]
    10% dividend more than covered by EPS, 10% YOY revenue growth. What's the problem? I'll add tomorrow on any weakness.
    Jul 30 06:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weak Smartphone Markets May Disappoint The Apple Bulls [View article]
    For years, Japan has been the place to go to see where technology is headed. They were first in so many consumer electronics devices we take for granted today, like the CD, Blu-Ray, VCR, pocket calculator, quartz watch, motion control gaming, mobile payments via cell phone, etc. Today we see iPhone as the leading smartphone in Japan. Makes you think.
    Jul 13 01:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Another Successful Pivot [View article]
    If bad acquisitions and lack of focus on advertising spelled doom, Google would be a $10 stock. FB will be $100 within a year. Went to a July 4th BBQ earlier tonight and everyone from kids to grandparents had an iPhone and everyone was posting their photos to their Facebook page.
    Jul 4 10:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Another Successful Pivot [View article]
    Not everything is priced in all the time. That's why there are earnings surprises.
    Jul 2 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy The Rumor, Sell The News On Apple's New Watch [View article]
    The level of doubt on the iWatch argues for an upside surprise. Apple has hired too many fashion gurus and has too highly a developed fashion and design taste to make anything as ugly as the Samsung Gear. I'm waiting for a pleasant surprise but not putting my Rolex in the vault quite yet.
    Jul 2 10:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now That The 'Little Guy' Is In Apple, Time For The Flush [View article]
    Yes, an ecosystem of one, or maybe two. Defies reason why anyone would want to try introducing a new OS when an open source OS with over a billion users is available for free. Where are the developers going to come from? The game is over - it's a two horse race.
    Jun 28 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now That The 'Little Guy' Is In Apple, Time For The Flush [View article]
    As far as Xiaomi being a threat to Apple - I was in Paris at Galeries Lafayette department store (across from the Opera) two weeks ago. I was astounded to see long lines in the store at the Chanel, Prada, Longchamps and Louis Vuitton departments. Every single person on those long lines was Chinese and every one of them was holding an iPhone. These people are not switching to Xiaomi. If any manufacturer is threatened by Xiaomi it is Samsung.
    Jun 26 02:46 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's iWatch May Have A 37% Net Profit Margin [View article]
    Judging by Apple's recent hires in the luxury consumer goods area, it would not surprise me to see a version of the iWatch priced in the thousands of dollars. A gold case with easily upgradable internals is the way to go. High end fashion watches from Switzerland start at around $4000 in all stainless and then jump to $10,000 and up when gold is used. The margins on these high end watches are likely in the 80% range. Upgrading the internal components every year or two would keep the watch current, maintain the value of the investment, and provide a recurring income stream for Apple.
    Jun 25 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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