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  • The Real Importance Of The Apple Car Project [View article]
    Over the next 5-10 years factories of all types will become more and more automated. Labor cost, now the single largest cost factor, will become far less significant. Factories will spring up all around the world to supply the local markets. iPhones will be made in the U.S., and in many other locals around the World. Ditto cars. There is a convergence of factory automation and autonomously driven cars. The machine vision required for factory work and that required for self-driving cars is very similar. The value of a car will be more in its software and design than in its cost to assemble and the cost of its various components. Apple is stepping in at exactly the right time, with exactly the right skill sets.
    Feb 21, 2015. 01:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Electric Vehicle Opportunity [View article]
    Apple has no choice but to build a car. Why, you ask? First read the New Yorker magazine article on Johnny Ive, then ponder this... You have 19 of the top industrial designers on the planet working for you. They don't work for just money - they want to change the world. They've created the best computer, cell phone, music player, smart watch, etc. what's their next challenge? What will make a difference in the world? I'd say a clean energy, self driving car fits that bill nicely. If they didn't build it, somebody, like Elon Musk could easily lure them away, and Apple needs them... So, they're building a car. Tim Cook really has no choice.
    Feb 20, 2015. 05:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Four Reasons Why Apple Pay Is Going To Win [View article]
    Aside from the old, repetitive, disproven FUD, check your math on Apple's cash. You misplaced the decimal point.
    Feb 14, 2015. 12:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Numbers Get Serious [View article]
    If you read Carl Icahn's letter, the key salient point is that Apple is making a lot more money than the investment community realizes. Recognizing that, by itself, doesn't unlock that value. But, there is an event that should unlock that value, and that is a foreign profits repatriation holiday, or a change in the tax laws governing offshore earnings. In that case, apple would suddenly revalue upwards foreign earnings both past and future by the difference in the tax rate accrual and the actual tax rate applied. In an instant, Apples trailing and forward P/E would drop by about 2. Plus, if the repatriated earnings can be used for share buyback, that's additive. We're talking maybe $40-45 a share- about half of what Carl Icahn estimates Apple is undervalued.
    Feb 13, 2015. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shake Shack Is Overpriced - New Price Target Set [View article]
    There is always a market for premium anything, whether it's smart phones, or burgers. Shake Shack will be successful, just like Chipolte, or Apple by appealing to that segment of the population that has money and wants something better. I'm a buyer of the stock under $30 a share.
    Feb 8, 2015. 12:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Softcard Can Help Google Outplay Apple Pay [View article]
    Does it have a biometric security feature? Without that, why would a bank or credit card company give up a piece of the fee? What is the revenue model? So many unanswered questions.
    Jan 19, 2015. 10:36 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Larger iPhones May Be A Game Changer [View article]
    If Apple makes a new 4" iPhone, it will be to address the regional preference for smaller phones in Japan. The iPhone 6 has been under-performing in the Japanese market because it's thought to be too big.
    Jan 13, 2015. 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ingredients For An Imminent Bear Market Are In Place [View article]
    10% Corrections, like we had in October, are always possible, but I don't see a bear market (20% or more downside) in the next 12 months. In fact, I think there is a good possibility we see 15% upside by year-end 2015. The Market P/E can easily go to 20, based on extremely low bond yields and very low inflation. The U.S. economy is muddling along - you don't need 5% GDP growth to have a good stock market - 2.5 or 3% is fine. Low energy prices are a tailwind, overall. The possibiliy of tax reform and a massive profit repatriation could drive the markets higher - and I view this as a likely event. Finally, where are investors going to put their money? Give it to the government for 10 years at 1.95% interest?
    Jan 11, 2015. 02:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Google Panic Was Overdone [View article]
    Self driving cars are on the way, but Google won't be involved. The car manufacturers are doing it on their own. And, Google Glass, as a mainstream product, is DOA, in case you didn't get the memo.
    Jan 10, 2015. 12:43 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Poll: Only 5.4% of U.S. iPhone owners "very likely" to buy Apple Watch [View news story]
    I'll give you worst case scenario- 5 million to early adopters, 5 million to channel fill, and 5 million for 2015 Holiday sales. That's 15 million in calendar 2015. ASP will be in the high $400's. Call it $7 billion, so a bump of 3% to Apple total revenue. That's worst case.

    I'll buy one just to try it - part of my Apple due-diligence. The stat that the average smartphone user pulls it out of their pocket 110 times a day is a telling one. If you can check the time, messages, weather, who's calling, etc. by simply lifting up your arm, it might actually be a very useful gadget.
    Jan 3, 2015. 12:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2015 Will Be Apple's Year: Raising Price Target To $174 [View article]
    Way too optimistic on iPad and Apple Watch units. The other numbers are at the high end of my estimates, but definitely in the realm of possibilities. Somewhere between you and richbar lies reality. My price target is $140. Earnings $8.00, P/E of 17.5.
    Dec 31, 2014. 05:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tax Reform In 2015 Can Impact Apple [View article]
    Also, Apple has accrued for taxes on overseas profits, I believe, at around a 20% rate. I heard this awhile back, but I'm fairly sure it is true. If this is the case, then the difference between the accrued and the actual would flow to the bottom line as pure profit. I'm not an accountant, but that's my understanding. I'm not sure this would impact the stock price, but it would lower trailing P/E and make Apple look even cheaper.
    Dec 21, 2014. 05:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Is Undervalued And Unloved And Positioned For Success In The Future: Part 1 [View article]
    Even if Apple sticks with Google, the terms are likely going to change in Apples favor. Everyone knows Apple's customer base has more economic value than Android's. This could be a game changer.
    Dec 21, 2014. 01:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smartphones: Apple Knows What It's Doing, Google Doesn't [View article]
    Google is making a few Nexus phones to provide manufacturers a "reference" device. If they made millions of them then the manufacturers would view Google as a competitor and find an alternative to Android, hence Tizen. Tizen is how Samsung keeps Google out of the large scale device manufacturing business. Remember, Google does not make any mobile device - they order them from HTC, primarily. Believe me, if they gave HTC an order for 50 million Nexus phones, they'd have 50 million available in no time.
    Dec 21, 2014. 01:19 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google Is Undervalued And Unloved And Positioned For Success In The Future: Part 1 [View article]
    I view Google as a public company that is run as a private club. They invest in anything they think may have long term value, robotics, self-driving-cars, drones, high speed Internet services, etc. while milking their search business to the point of destroying its value. Increasingly I have a hard time finding what I'm looking for in the clutter of deceptive ads trying to garner my clicks. Very frustrating.

    It's clear to me this is a company that has lost its focus and does not respect its customers nor its shareholders.

    And then, there's the 800 Lb. Gorilla in the room - their search contract with Apple for IOS is up this coming year. As long as they are in a life-or-death struggle with the device maker, I think Google is uninvestable.
    Dec 21, 2014. 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment