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  • Apple Earnings Preview: What A Difference A Year Makes [View article]
    Agreed, it was an iPad Christmas. My wife and I replaced our older iPads with Air models and gave Minis to the grandkids. I'm using my iPad 3rd Gen HD model as a TV in the bathroom - works great with my Cablevision IPad app. Bought a stand from the Apple store at $50 - a high margin accessory for sure.
    Jan 24 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: What A Difference A Year Makes [View article]
    I think above 4 million because last year there were no iMacs available - I know, I was trying to buy one. Also, the MacBooks are all new improved versions in time for the Q and prices were lowered across the board. I doubt the analysts average of estimate at 4.4m will be met, but above 4m is fairly safe.
    Jan 24 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: What A Difference A Year Makes [View article]
    They'll get some of that back via prior quarter's deferred income coming back this quarter. Also, last quarter there was $200 million of miscellaneous net income from other sources - maybe advertising, search, interest or something else - who knows, it's small change, but being that it's net, it's meaningful. It wasn't in my numbers.
    Jan 23 08:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: What A Difference A Year Makes [View article]
    Since anyone can make predictions, here's mine;

    Apple's FQ1 Estimated Results

    iPhone - 57 million units with ASP $630 = $35.9b
    iPad - 28 million units with ASP of $400 = $11.2b
    iMac - 4.0 million units with ASP of $1200 = $4.8b
    iPod - 10 million units with ASP of $160 = $1.6b
    iTunes - Based on recent company report - $2.7b
    iTV, Software, Services, Accessories, etc. $4.0b

    Total = $60.2 Billion
    Gross margins of 38%
    Gross Profit = $22.9 Billion
    Operating Expenses = $4.5 Billion
    Net before taxes = $18.4 Billion
    Tax rate of 26%
    After tax earnings = $13.6b
    Assuming 890 million shares outstanding = $15.28 EPS

    Downside Risks to these numbers;
    Early release of iPhone 5s & 5c 10 days prior to beginning of Quarter
    Weakness in Southern Europe
    Reported weakness in China in anticipation of China Mobile deal
    Late arrival and limited availability of iPad Mini HD models
    Reduction in price of the old iPad Mini standard definition model
    Late arrival of Mac Pro pushing those sales into March quarter
    Widespread chain store discounting of iPhones and iPads (possible Apple participation)

    Upside Potential to these numbers;
    Much Faster country roll-out
    Better availability of iPhones and iPads
    Reported strong consumer preference for 5s over 5c iPhone models
    Reported preference for higher storage models of iPhone and iPad
    Preference of iPad Air over Mini
    Addition of NTT Docomo and dominance of iPhone and iPad in Japan
    Best iPhone quarter ever in China per Tim Cook
    Possible channel fill sales to China Mobile booked this quarter
    Much better availability at launch of accessories for iPhones and iPads
    Extremely high profit margin on these accessories
    Higher iPhone margins, in general, in "S" years
    Jan 23 07:58 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google: Destroying Shareholder Value One Cent At A Time [View article]
    While you at it (replicating the Nest thermostat) why not add in a DropCam feature along with using the infrared video for fire detention - a three-in-one device.
    Jan 14 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple, Cirrus Logic rally after iPhone/iPad supplier reports strong sales [View news story]
    How many people will pre-register for a product when nobody knows what it costs? Until China Mobile announces their subsidy program, orders will be light.
    Jan 13 02:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: It's A Matter Of What, Where And Why [View article]
    Chinese New Year and China Mobile, then throw in China channel fill. Hard to imagine FQ2 not being a blow out quarter also.
    Beefed up deferred revenue will benefit the second half. I estimate $28 first half and $22 second half of FY2014, not counting any new product categories. That's 25% YOY EPS growth. $750 a share by July.
    Dec 29 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple still in talks with China Mobile over iPhone deal [View news story]
    China Mobile has shown the willingness to provide SIM cards for iPhones - in fact, iPhones represent between 5 & 8% of the devices currently in use on China Mobiles network.
    Fact, iPhone 5S & 5C versions that run on China Mobile's new 4G system have already obtained Chinese government approval for sale in China.
    Now, what would stand in the way of Apple and tens of thousands of authorized resellers from selling new iPhones that will work on China Mobile's 4G system?
    Dec 19 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple still in talks with China Mobile over iPhone deal [View news story]
    Deal or no deal, Apple will be selling iPhones that work on China Mobile's new 4G system. There are currently 45 million iPhones running on China Mobiles ancient 2G system, EVEN THOUGH NO DEAL HAS EVER BEEN MADE WITH THE CARRIER.

    The deal has to do with subsidies and shelf space in China Mobiles stores, that's it! In order to get those things from China Mobile, Apple has to give up a piece of iTunes revenue and they are haggling over that.

    Deal or no deal, Apple will sell 20 million China Mobile compatible iPhones in the next 12 months. Easily.
    Dec 18 09:13 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple schedules Chinese event for just hours after one in U.S. [View news story]
    Apple doesn't need a deal with China Mobile, just a phone that works on China Mobile's network. There are currently over 20 million iPhones running on China Mobile's old 2G system. An iPhone that has the radios in it for both China Mobile's existing 3G system and their coming 4G service will sell 50 million units to China Mobile subscribers, even if China Mobile doesn't offer the phone.
    Sep 4 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Complete Reset Of Expectations Could Mark The Bottom [View article]
    Apple's stock now comes with a put and a call. The put is the share buy-back and the dividend, effectively eliminating any further huge downside moves, and the call is the possibility they will actually come out with some great new products that revive double digit growth in EPS. I bought in the premarket this morning at $395 and last week I sold $400 Jan 2015 puts at $82. I think in this casino called the stock market, I made a couple of very good bets.
    Apr 24 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Moving Toward Safe Haven Status Within A Long-Term Trading Range? [View article]
    If I had to guess what is wrong with Apple right now, I'd say they're caught in an innovation holding pattern waiting for some key pieces of the puzzle to fall into place.

    Piece #1 is the IGZO screens they've invested billions in with Sharp that promise to be brighter, higher resolution, lower battery drain and lower production cost.

    Piece #2 is the 22nm chips they've designed to be built by Taiwan Semi on Apple purchased equipment (billions more invested by Apple) that promise to be much smaller, more powerful, use less power, and will cost Apple less than the Samsung produced chips Apple is currently using.

    Piece #3 is the new Qualcomm all-band LTE 4G chip that will allow Apple to make one version of the iPhone that will work on all 4G networks in the World, including China Mobile.

    These new technologies will make possible not only breathtaking new products, but lower Apple's manufacturing cost so they can compete with Samsung in any market, whether its price or quality driven.
    Mar 3 11:52 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Moving Toward Safe Haven Status Within A Long-Term Trading Range? [View article]
    It is clear Apple needs the following things to happen as quickly as possible:
    Raise the dividend and buy back, or make a major acquisition.
    Come out with a phone for China Mobile and a deal to sell it
    Get their venture with Sharp producing new technology screens
    Get their venture with Taiwan Semi producing new chips
    Make a cheaper iPhone for the prepaid markets
    Make a large screen iPhone for those users who want that
    Come out with a new product, iTV or iWatch, whatever

    The next few months are going to be painful. This quarter will be a major YOY EPS drop and the markets are going to play that up as the beginning of the end for Apple. I think, if they do all of the above, they can get the shares back up to over $600, maybe even $700 by year end. But, everything will have to go right, and very little seems to be going right lately for Tim Cook and company.

    Meanwhile I'm holding my considerable shares hoping they get their act together before I can't stand the pain any longer and sell despite knowing all of the above will happen eventually.
    Mar 3 11:10 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Buy The Steak - Hold For The Coming Sizzles! [View article]
    Google Glass will end after the first 100 or so accidental deaths from wearing the stupid things while driving or walking in the city. Think what it would be like to walk or drive with a cell phone in front of one eye. Who thinks this is a great idea?
    Feb 28 01:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Investors Continue To Face Significant Downside Exposure [View article]
    Little math problem here - enterprise value is $292 billion, not $392. Only $100 billion - easy mistake to make.

    If Apple never comes out with a new product, just updates, refines, improves, widens price points and models of it's current products, it's still going to grow EPS in low double digits for the next 5 years. This is not a Palm or Blackberry situation. You have 500 million iTunes users and rising every day and growth in areas of the world where Apple products are revered.
    Feb 26 08:43 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment