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  • Apple Is Running Out Of Cash To Raise Its Dividend [View article]
    The US corporate taxation of offshore cash will change after the midterm election, no matter who wins. So, borrowing to fund a bigger buyback makes sense, because it'll be paid back within a year. The buyback will reduce the total dividend payout making a 15% dividend increase possible, if a bit tight. Worst case, they can pay the taxes. They've accounted for most of the taxes anyway.
    Apr 21 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: We've Heard This Story Before [View article]
    Something to consider - Apple launched a new Mac Pro that just started shipping at the beginning of this quarter. It has been sold out since launch with at least a one month wait for the entire quarter. The starting price for this item is $2995 and configurations costing over $10,000 are available. I think sales volume this quarter are probable in the low 6 figures. With an ASP of close to $4000 (my guess) this will skew your Mac numbers higher both in units and ASP. Something to consider.
    Apr 21 11:25 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Fiscal 2014 Tough; Fiscal 2015 Looking Better [View article]
    The logic of the don't split the stock crowd makes no sense to me. Why wouldn't you want as many retail investors as possible in your stock? With Apple's #1 name/brand recognition, I'm sure there are millions of potential shareholders who don't buy the stock because it's "too expensive". Why put up any obstacles to ownership?
    Apr 19 11:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Preview: Fiscal 2014 Tough; Fiscal 2015 Looking Better [View article]
    Great article and intelligent reply by G3. A few reasons I'm a bit more optimistic than either the writer or G3;

    I think the phablet market Apple is going to enter later this year is around 100 million units a year. I think Apple should pick up 10-20% of this market, and it will be at a higher ASP than iPhone.

    Second, the iWatch could be a real surprise. If it can do one thing, continuos blood sugar monitoring, it will sell tens of millions of units just for that single feature, and likely be covered under insurance.

    Finally, Apple TV - a set-top box that offers gaming console features, as well as the Apple ease of use experience for content viewing would be a hot seller and a shot in the arm for both iTunes and the App Store.

    I think the combination of limited downside and substantial potential upside makes Apple a good buy right here.
    Apr 19 11:24 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google, Making Mistakes Like Yahoo? [View article]
    Two examples of Googles vision and intelligence, Google Glass and Drones used to spread the Internet to the far corners of the world, both lead me to question Google's management. Anyone wearing those dopey Google Glasses deserves to be called a Glass Hole, and any far corner of the World without the Internet has zero value to Google's advertisers. These are the guys who created special classes of stock to lock down their control? You have to be nuts to bet your money on these clowns.
    Apr 18 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google, Making Mistakes Like Yahoo? [View article]
    Google has one core business, search, a virtual gold mine, that supports every hair brained scheme the loose-cannon founders care to squander the company's money on. Compare that to a company like Apple that has a laser-like focus on making a few core (profitable) products the absolute best they can be.

    Google is vulnerable to disruption. Currently social media is starting to chip away at Google's advertiser base by offering non-search advertising opportunities. As search migrates from desktop to mobile, apps and voice-based search will also take meaningful portions of Google's business away. Deceleration will become shrinkage over time. No other business segment - not devices, not software, not drones, not driverless cars will replace the losses in search. Google will slowly fade away like Yahoo.
    Apr 17 01:20 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Premarket Gainers / Losers [View news story]
    Bought NQ on Friday. Read the conference call and unless they are totally full of it, it's a screaming buy. Not many 100% revenue growers with a single digit forward P/E. That plus the price being 50% of it's all time high. Seems like it should bounce here.
    Apr 13 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Plan To 'Take By Storm' The Smartphone Market In 2014 Materializes [View article]
    The dozens of companies that make the under $300 smartphones are cutting each other's throats in a race to the bottom not unlike what happened to the Windows PC market. I think Apple is better off staying above the fray in the high end where it is currently taking over 60% of all the profits in the market.
    Apr 13 12:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Plan To 'Take By Storm' The Smartphone Market In 2014 Materializes [View article]
    If the Q2 results are in line with the estimates - $10.00+, and are delivered along with a boost in the dividend and buyback, there might not be any buying opportunity. Q3 estimates are already pretty tame, so even weak forward guidance might not matter. What I'm saying is, the buying opportunity might be now, not after earnings.
    Apr 13 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Significantly Undervalued - Shares Are Worth North Of $650 [View article]
    I think the premise of the article is that the author's numbers were a worst case scenario, in that I agree. A number of factors argue strongly that Apple will do much better.
    1). Addressable market continues to increase - it's not just CM and NTT DOCOMO, it's scores of smaller carriers Apple is adding every quarter.
    2). With Apple having the highest customer satisfaction numbers and the highest intention to buy numbers, it hard to see how total units will stall at today's level.
    3). More choices in screen size will naturally increase market share. The larger screen sizes of Android offerings have been their one advantage over Apple in the premium end of the market, and that is about to end.
    4). Continued improvements in construction, software, features, content, etc. will maintain Apple as the #1 most sought after brand in smartphones.
    5). As more and more people enter the middle class in the BRIC countries Apple's market share will increase.

    And that's just the iPhone - one product - AppleTV is about to grow, wearables will contribute something, payments may be something eventually. The point is, Apple is still a growth business.
    Apr 6 12:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Walking Up The Down Staircase [View article]
    Great article. I agree totally. Judging by Apple's relative strength recently, the market agrees.
    Mar 30 07:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Things That Really Matter For Apple's New Share Buyback Program [View article]
    I'm no expert, but from what I've read, Apple can only borrow in US dollars, can only repay loans in US dollars, can only buy back shares in US dollars, and can only pay dividends in US dollars.

    Foreign cash can be used to buy foreign companies (note the Israeli companies Apple has purchased), build factories and/or buy capital equipment in foreign countries (note the furnaces and lasers for the Arizona sapphire plant were purchased in Europe), and build new stores in foreign companies. All this economic activity is forced out of our country by the backward thinking corporate taxation rules our government has implemented. Nice going congress!
    Mar 29 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Things That Really Matter For Apple's New Share Buyback Program [View article]
    Borrowing to buy back shares makes all kinds of sense. The interest is tax deductible, the shares retired are no longer paid dividends, which are not tax deductible. Apple can borrow at 50-60 basis points above treasuries in the 5-10 year range. Bottom line, the cost of borrowing nets out to around zero. EPS goes up on the lower share count. Everyone's happy, except Michael Blair.
    Mar 25 03:50 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Mobile added ~1M iPhone users in February [View news story]
    Old iPhones don't connect to 3G on CM, all the new ones being sold now do. A major reason I believe new iPhones are being sold to CM users who don't have 4G in their service area.
    Mar 21 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Mobile added ~1M iPhone users in February [View news story]
    The China Mobile statement implies ~ 1 million of the 1.34 million 4G adds were new iPhones. Notably absent were any indications of any 3G new iPhone users. Since we know there were 10 million 3G adds, logically some should be new iPhones, especially because 4G has very limited availability right now.
    Mar 20 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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