CRED Buyer's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/64317/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/148079-commercial-real-estate-begs-for-bailout-old-whine-in-new-bottle?source=feed#comment-585840 585840

On Jul 11 12:00 PM Rhino Realty wrote:

> The United States has 6 times more retail/commercial space than Europe.
> Why ? Because the banks provided far toooo much credit to retailers
> (ie Circuit City, Linens N Things etc..) and tooo much $$ for the
> developers. I spent the past 20 years of my career as a retail developer
> and I admit that the banks allowed my company to collect developer
> fees and loan to values that were excessive....the hardest part of
> this crisis is summed up in one word: LOSS. Nobody likes to lose.
> I certainly don't; however, in this game called 2009 Recession, there
> will be many losers, and perhaps no winners. All of the banks will
> lose because they all had a hand in the pie called Greed. Many REITs,
> Developers and Investors will also feel the pain ad they were under
> capitalized from the on set....The next game (called 2010 Turnaround),
> we will see fewer retailers, fewer developers, and fewer bankers.
> This should align the game to be more like the games played in Europe
> where there aren't drug stores, office supply stores, electronic
> stores or video stores on every corner. Cheers !]]> Mon, 13 Jul 2009 11:51:07 -0400

On Jul 11 12:00 PM Rhino Realty wrote:

> The United States has 6 times more retail/commercial space than Europe.
> Why ? Because the banks provided far toooo much credit to retailers
> (ie Circuit City, Linens N Things etc..) and tooo much $$ for the
> developers. I spent the past 20 years of my career as a retail developer
> and I admit that the banks allowed my company to collect developer
> fees and loan to values that were excessive....the hardest part of
> this crisis is summed up in one word: LOSS. Nobody likes to lose.
> I certainly don't; however, in this game called 2009 Recession, there
> will be many losers, and perhaps no winners. All of the banks will
> lose because they all had a hand in the pie called Greed. Many REITs,
> Developers and Investors will also feel the pain ad they were under
> capitalized from the on set....The next game (called 2010 Turnaround),
> we will see fewer retailers, fewer developers, and fewer bankers.
> This should align the game to be more like the games played in Europe
> where there aren't drug stores, office supply stores, electronic
> stores or video stores on every corner. Cheers !]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108443-commercial-real-estate-not-immune-to-economic-woes?source=feed#comment-318178 318178
1. Very highend Hotel in California with $90MM in debt and only a $4.5 NOI, and is arguably stabilized.

In todays underwritting this entire hotle is worth probably only $60MM. not the $112 million the bank thinks. They are trying to sell the B piece at price that still values teh hotel at $95. This hotel is owned by a mjor REIT - and they have several of these loans, are they going to put up the additional capital by my estimate $45MM that will be needed to refinance these loans when they come due in 3 years. I am seeing this all over the place, and teh smart guys on Wall Street still seem to be smoking crack.

When it is time to refinance this debt assuming there are some lenders out there, they will want 1.2 - 1.4 DCR inplace, real cap rates, and a 60 - 75% LTV if you apply this metric to a lot of these deals out there - a lot of 06 and 07 loans are under water.]]> Mon, 01 Dec 2008 11:43:14 -0500
1. Very highend Hotel in California with $90MM in debt and only a $4.5 NOI, and is arguably stabilized.

In todays underwritting this entire hotle is worth probably only $60MM. not the $112 million the bank thinks. They are trying to sell the B piece at price that still values teh hotel at $95. This hotel is owned by a mjor REIT - and they have several of these loans, are they going to put up the additional capital by my estimate $45MM that will be needed to refinance these loans when they come due in 3 years. I am seeing this all over the place, and teh smart guys on Wall Street still seem to be smoking crack.

When it is time to refinance this debt assuming there are some lenders out there, they will want 1.2 - 1.4 DCR inplace, real cap rates, and a 60 - 75% LTV if you apply this metric to a lot of these deals out there - a lot of 06 and 07 loans are under water.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96354-today-s-federal-action-will-alter-the-face-of-finance?source=feed#comment-258992 258992
Unlike the RTC which held bad debts from FAILED institutions, how can the FEDs force banks to sell "illiquid" assets at some price south of PAR and not force the banks into the same need to shore up Capital??? And if they do force them to sell at a "real" discount" will the FED then inject Capital and wipe out or dilute shareholders??]]> Fri, 19 Sep 2008 10:43:46 -0400
Unlike the RTC which held bad debts from FAILED institutions, how can the FEDs force banks to sell "illiquid" assets at some price south of PAR and not force the banks into the same need to shore up Capital??? And if they do force them to sell at a "real" discount" will the FED then inject Capital and wipe out or dilute shareholders??]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91030-no-signs-of-a-housing-bottom?source=feed#comment-231201 231201
Perhaps the best indicator; I bought a Condo and closed thsi week in San Diego. Prior Price Prior Price in 2006 = $525,000 my price $409,000.]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 11:29:09 -0400
Perhaps the best indicator; I bought a Condo and closed thsi week in San Diego. Prior Price Prior Price in 2006 = $525,000 my price $409,000.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84929-spotting-banks-in-danger?source=feed#comment-206022 206022 Tue, 15 Jul 2008 11:23:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/84929-spotting-banks-in-danger?source=feed#comment-206015 206015
www4.fdic.gov/IDASP/ma...]]> Tue, 15 Jul 2008 11:21:07 -0400
www4.fdic.gov/IDASP/ma...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66652-miami-condo-vultures-a-fool-s-game?source=feed#comment-120664 120664 Fri, 29 Feb 2008 11:14:46 -0500