unfaire's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/64335/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175519-the-next-crisis-spiraling-inflation-part-2?source=feed#comment-780553 780553 If you superimpose Barisheff’s the Dow:Gold ratio chart over DJIA, you will see those peaks coincide with the high points of DJIA just before the corrections thereafter and those “Buy Gold” periods coincides with those periods when DJIA was in consolidation, i.e., when DJIA stayed flat over a long period.
The lesson here is: When the stock market is overheated, overweight on gold, and when the market is underperforming, get out of gold and overweight on stocks.
Or, if you believe in the strength of the U. S. economy to keep going, stay in the U. S. stocks.
Or, if you think the U. S. is about to go the way of the empires past, go for gold.]]> Sat, 28 Nov 2009 09:50:39 -0500 If you superimpose Barisheff’s the Dow:Gold ratio chart over DJIA, you will see those peaks coincide with the high points of DJIA just before the corrections thereafter and those “Buy Gold” periods coincides with those periods when DJIA was in consolidation, i.e., when DJIA stayed flat over a long period.
The lesson here is: When the stock market is overheated, overweight on gold, and when the market is underperforming, get out of gold and overweight on stocks.
Or, if you believe in the strength of the U. S. economy to keep going, stay in the U. S. stocks.
Or, if you think the U. S. is about to go the way of the empires past, go for gold.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174831-will-microsoft-get-squeezed-by-chrome-os?source=feed#comment-774968 774968 Now 20 years later, Microsft is behaving like IBM then, and worse. I do appreciate the new Windows 7 and the all the wonderful features of Windows. But Microsoft is now behaving like (and as) monopoly with little regards for users. For example, we have files which go all the way back to Windows 3 and Microsoft has abandoned the backward compatibility for their own products. It is like you bought a car and after a while you cannot get its parts anymore. But, cars get junked but our files do not.
Windows also got very intransparent about interface with non-Windows software and hardware and that interface keeps some vendors like Adobe tied so tightly with Windows. Of course, with each upgrade of Windows, we have to do the expensive Photoshop upgrade and that keep both of them very happy.
But, we start to see the terrible effects of this intrasparent interface. Just ask someone with Windows Vista or Windows 7, they suffered so much Blue Screen Of Death as well as Screen Freeze. And, they are VERY slow in fixing them and the vendors like HP are hanging their customer high and dry.
I believe many people are hoping Google Chrome OS or anyone else will come to relief them from the high cost and unnecessarily complicated Windows monopoly.
Someday, someone will succeed in dethroning Microsoft, as Microsoft did to IBM, big corporate users notwithstanding, if Microsoft keeps going the way they do today.]]> Tue, 24 Nov 2009 08:55:50 -0500 Now 20 years later, Microsft is behaving like IBM then, and worse. I do appreciate the new Windows 7 and the all the wonderful features of Windows. But Microsoft is now behaving like (and as) monopoly with little regards for users. For example, we have files which go all the way back to Windows 3 and Microsoft has abandoned the backward compatibility for their own products. It is like you bought a car and after a while you cannot get its parts anymore. But, cars get junked but our files do not.
Windows also got very intransparent about interface with non-Windows software and hardware and that interface keeps some vendors like Adobe tied so tightly with Windows. Of course, with each upgrade of Windows, we have to do the expensive Photoshop upgrade and that keep both of them very happy.
But, we start to see the terrible effects of this intrasparent interface. Just ask someone with Windows Vista or Windows 7, they suffered so much Blue Screen Of Death as well as Screen Freeze. And, they are VERY slow in fixing them and the vendors like HP are hanging their customer high and dry.
I believe many people are hoping Google Chrome OS or anyone else will come to relief them from the high cost and unnecessarily complicated Windows monopoly.
Someday, someone will succeed in dethroning Microsoft, as Microsoft did to IBM, big corporate users notwithstanding, if Microsoft keeps going the way they do today.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173458-small-cap-smackdown-russell-2000-laggards-could-offer-future-opportunity?source=feed#comment-763055 763055 After the market crash of last year, the government rescue effort was concentrated in large cap companies. They let the small companies fall by the wayside. This is very clear from what happened to the banks. The large banks, even those which almost went belly up, got a large infusion of capital while the small banks were left to swim by its own. Before the crash, the conventional wisdom in the street was that the smaller companies have a greater possibility of leaping up their profits. But, now the conventional wisdom is that the smaller companies are more likely to fail under the present situation. No wonder, DJIA is outperforming S&P and other indices.]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 23:53:00 -0500 After the market crash of last year, the government rescue effort was concentrated in large cap companies. They let the small companies fall by the wayside. This is very clear from what happened to the banks. The large banks, even those which almost went belly up, got a large infusion of capital while the small banks were left to swim by its own. Before the crash, the conventional wisdom in the street was that the smaller companies have a greater possibility of leaping up their profits. But, now the conventional wisdom is that the smaller companies are more likely to fail under the present situation. No wonder, DJIA is outperforming S&P and other indices.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173020-large-caps-outperform-while-small-caps-stumble?source=feed#comment-763045 763045 Mon, 16 Nov 2009 23:46:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172138-stocks-soar-unemployment-rises-dollar-slumps?source=feed#comment-752047 752047 Just look at what happened to Japan. I remember a time when it was 360 Japanese Yen to 1 US dollar. It is somewhere around 100 or less to 1 now. In the meantime, we 300 million or so of use raised the standard of living of 100 million or so of Japanese.
In other words, the US dollars develued to 1/3 relative to Japanese yen with a population ratio of 3/1.
Now, the Chinese population is about 1.3 billion or about 4 times ours. A simple math would tell us the US dollars would have to devalue 1/12 againist the Chinese RMB to reach some kind of balance. That would be about 0.6 RMB to a US dollar in the next decades or so.
I know things are not this simple. But, this is the direction where the US dollars are going.]]> Mon, 09 Nov 2009 07:15:08 -0500 Just look at what happened to Japan. I remember a time when it was 360 Japanese Yen to 1 US dollar. It is somewhere around 100 or less to 1 now. In the meantime, we 300 million or so of use raised the standard of living of 100 million or so of Japanese.
In other words, the US dollars develued to 1/3 relative to Japanese yen with a population ratio of 3/1.
Now, the Chinese population is about 1.3 billion or about 4 times ours. A simple math would tell us the US dollars would have to devalue 1/12 againist the Chinese RMB to reach some kind of balance. That would be about 0.6 RMB to a US dollar in the next decades or so.
I know things are not this simple. But, this is the direction where the US dollars are going.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/171413-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-745803 745803 If you are a small bank and having, say, $1 million of cash, would you lend it out today knowing Fed will have to raise the interest rate sooner or later when you will be able to make a lot more money at that time? You would just sit on it and do nothing. You won't finance a mortgage at today's rate and get stuck with it for the next 10, 20, or 30 years, if you think you can get better return after the Fed has hiked the rate.
On the other hand, the big investment bank turned holding banks take this costing-almost-nothing money and churn the stock market and making a zillions of dollars.
The net result is the this low interest rate is not creating liquidity. In fact it is hurting everybody except the big banks who can trade on their on account and those who have the gull to charge 30% interest on the credit cards.]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 07:37:42 -0500 If you are a small bank and having, say, $1 million of cash, would you lend it out today knowing Fed will have to raise the interest rate sooner or later when you will be able to make a lot more money at that time? You would just sit on it and do nothing. You won't finance a mortgage at today's rate and get stuck with it for the next 10, 20, or 30 years, if you think you can get better return after the Fed has hiked the rate.
On the other hand, the big investment bank turned holding banks take this costing-almost-nothing money and churn the stock market and making a zillions of dollars.
The net result is the this low interest rate is not creating liquidity. In fact it is hurting everybody except the big banks who can trade on their on account and those who have the gull to charge 30% interest on the credit cards.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170722-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-741942 741942 Tue, 03 Nov 2009 07:33:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164977-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-704752 704752 Tue, 06 Oct 2009 07:52:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161950-next-up-dow-10-000-does-anyone-care?source=feed#comment-680517 680517 Thu, 17 Sep 2009 09:31:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161687-wednesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-679512 679512 Wed, 16 Sep 2009 14:32:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161458-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-677014 677014 My guess is that the market has been taken over by the news-independent (or event-independent) computer programs. These programs seem to trade "against" market movements. It means when the market (or, almost any stock) goes down, they buy. The consequence is that the market turns up. And, when the market goes up, they dump the stocks they have just bought and make an instant profit. The market then turns down. This works in "thin" market and "stabilizes" the market. The Dow Jones has been in the mid 9,000 and going nowhere for a while now. Nobody is making money except those computers.]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 06:21:11 -0400 My guess is that the market has been taken over by the news-independent (or event-independent) computer programs. These programs seem to trade "against" market movements. It means when the market (or, almost any stock) goes down, they buy. The consequence is that the market turns up. And, when the market goes up, they dump the stocks they have just bought and make an instant profit. The market then turns down. This works in "thin" market and "stabilizes" the market. The Dow Jones has been in the mid 9,000 and going nowhere for a while now. Nobody is making money except those computers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160757-recent-oil-rally-another-crowded-trade?source=feed#comment-669953 669953 If what the scientists tell us is true, there is so much oil and coal around us it is almost inexhaustible. In fact it is not there are not enough oil and coal to go around instead we cannot afford to use up all those oil and coal. If we do burn them up, it would put our atmosphere back to its primordial carbon dioxide. However, before we even began to burn up some of them, as we are doing now, there would be enough green house gas to cause significant climate changes to make us human beings extinct like the dinosaurs did some million years ago.
Therefore, as we start to see such catastrophic climate changes coming on, we will have to simply stop burning oil and coal. We have to survive on alternate energy sources. There is no other choice.]]> Thu, 10 Sep 2009 08:12:53 -0400 If what the scientists tell us is true, there is so much oil and coal around us it is almost inexhaustible. In fact it is not there are not enough oil and coal to go around instead we cannot afford to use up all those oil and coal. If we do burn them up, it would put our atmosphere back to its primordial carbon dioxide. However, before we even began to burn up some of them, as we are doing now, there would be enough green house gas to cause significant climate changes to make us human beings extinct like the dinosaurs did some million years ago.
Therefore, as we start to see such catastrophic climate changes coming on, we will have to simply stop burning oil and coal. We have to survive on alternate energy sources. There is no other choice.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149097-friday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-600603 600603 We had oil bust created by trading frenzy with volume far exceeded the oil inventory. Now we have option trading of all stocks with volume far exceeding the underlying stocks, not just U.S. stocks but also of stocks of the world all over through ETF and other means. Could there be a huge U.S. and world market bubble followed by a tsunami crash in not so distant future? It would take more than trillions to fix, more likely mega-trillions? Remember it was only billions just a few years ago?
With all this high frequency trading and other new market manipulations which we don’t know, has the fundamental of the market changed? May be Hal 9000 has already factored in all the technical analysis we now know and depend on and found a way to circle around us. The shares and the stocks are now just like the oil, which by the way is floating on the high seas by the boatloads, a mere trading vehicle to make money?]]> Fri, 24 Jul 2009 07:51:07 -0400 We had oil bust created by trading frenzy with volume far exceeded the oil inventory. Now we have option trading of all stocks with volume far exceeding the underlying stocks, not just U.S. stocks but also of stocks of the world all over through ETF and other means. Could there be a huge U.S. and world market bubble followed by a tsunami crash in not so distant future? It would take more than trillions to fix, more likely mega-trillions? Remember it was only billions just a few years ago?
With all this high frequency trading and other new market manipulations which we don’t know, has the fundamental of the market changed? May be Hal 9000 has already factored in all the technical analysis we now know and depend on and found a way to circle around us. The shares and the stocks are now just like the oil, which by the way is floating on the high seas by the boatloads, a mere trading vehicle to make money?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146851-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-573257 573257 www.lulu.com/content/p...):

"There is no guarantee that the past will repeat itself. But, sometimes, the past is a good indication of what is to come. The past is the only information we have and it may provide us with a glimpse into the future."]]> Fri, 03 Jul 2009 12:37:23 -0400 www.lulu.com/content/p...):

"There is no guarantee that the past will repeat itself. But, sometimes, the past is a good indication of what is to come. The past is the only information we have and it may provide us with a glimpse into the future."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142080-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-538502 538502 Tue, 09 Jun 2009 08:40:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125024-friday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-433250 433250 Fri, 20 Mar 2009 07:36:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111130-thursday-outlook-another-bubble?source=feed#comment-432243 432243 Thu, 19 Mar 2009 10:37:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125022-tuesday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-428824 428824 1. I lost billions buying some crappy financial instrument like CDS from, say, AIG and other cohorts.
2. Give me billions, tax payers, so that I can stay in business. I am too big to fail.
3. So, I got billions of tax payers’ money.
4. AIG as well as all the cohorts also got billions of tax payers’ money.
5. Since and AIG and all the cohorts are flush with tax payers’ money, take back from me those crappy financial instrument and pay me in full.
6. Now, AIG and all the cohorts including me got back those crappy financial instruments, I am in poor house again. Tax payers please make me full again by giving me billions.
7. And, the cycle goes on again.
Under the guise of too big to fail, we tax payers are continue to be taken for suckers. It is still not too late to:
1. Stop bailing them out.
2. Sell off various parts of the failing financial institutions in piece meal under the government supervision.
3. Give back the tax payers first whatever that can be recovered from the sale.
4. If there is any left, let the other stakeholders have them.
In a capitalist society, when the price is right, i.e., cheap enough so that some pieces of these failing institutions can be made profitable, there will be someone who would buy them and make money from them. In doing so, most of these pieces will be healthy again and making money by themselves without any more of tax payers’ money.
Bernanke said very well. I believe this is what he meant: When the politicians do not have the will to go against the self interests of the financial biggies, neglecting the well being of the all the rest including us the tax payers and who put them in office, we will never solve the problem.
]]> Tue, 17 Mar 2009 07:27:38 -0400 1. I lost billions buying some crappy financial instrument like CDS from, say, AIG and other cohorts.
2. Give me billions, tax payers, so that I can stay in business. I am too big to fail.
3. So, I got billions of tax payers’ money.
4. AIG as well as all the cohorts also got billions of tax payers’ money.
5. Since and AIG and all the cohorts are flush with tax payers’ money, take back from me those crappy financial instrument and pay me in full.
6. Now, AIG and all the cohorts including me got back those crappy financial instruments, I am in poor house again. Tax payers please make me full again by giving me billions.
7. And, the cycle goes on again.
Under the guise of too big to fail, we tax payers are continue to be taken for suckers. It is still not too late to:
1. Stop bailing them out.
2. Sell off various parts of the failing financial institutions in piece meal under the government supervision.
3. Give back the tax payers first whatever that can be recovered from the sale.
4. If there is any left, let the other stakeholders have them.
In a capitalist society, when the price is right, i.e., cheap enough so that some pieces of these failing institutions can be made profitable, there will be someone who would buy them and make money from them. In doing so, most of these pieces will be healthy again and making money by themselves without any more of tax payers’ money.
Bernanke said very well. I believe this is what he meant: When the politicians do not have the will to go against the self interests of the financial biggies, neglecting the well being of the all the rest including us the tax payers and who put them in office, we will never solve the problem.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119534-tuesday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-382076 382076 There is one thing people don’t talk about it. May be it is too painful to talk about it. That is during the boom, we created a lot of money, especially in the form of credit given to subprime mortgages as well as in various derivatives derived from them. The world was afloat on cash. This certainly has created a distortion in the economic and financial situations in the whole world. As this bubble was busted, just like a balloon got busted and its air is let go, these extra money got to let go. We all are dreaming, dreaming of the fantasy world that was during the boom would come back. People talk of recovery as if that fantasy world would come back. No, recovery means returning to the world before the boom. But, even that is not possible. The boom has distorted the whole economic system of the world and we can never go back to where it was. Instead, a new world economic order has to be created.
Putting more money into the broken banks is equivalent to creating more money. It simply is not logical. After the TARP fiasco, everybody sees it now. Or, do we?
Some people say President Roosevelt did not contribute to the recover from the crash of 1920-30. It is the World War II that did it. The government created jobs including the armed services as well as all that production of arms. If you look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from 1920 to 1950, you will see it clearly that the pre-crash high of DJIA was not reached until well into 1950s. So, the key to recovery is JOBS.
In fact, everybody is talking about jobs. But, nobody is doing anything about jobs. Everybody is being busy how to carve up the money to line their pockets. Pork is too kind a word for it. If they are really interested in creating jobs, why not give tax credit to all jobs. The total U. S. employment is about 150 million people. Even if you give an average of $10,000 tax credit to each job, it amounts to ONLY $1.5 trillion. I say average because we should not give millionaire or billionaire bankers any of these tax credits. We should not let business to import more cheap foreign workers at the expense of our tax money either. We should give this tax credit to any U. S. registered corporation or company, including those mom and pop shops. We should apply it to any employee who had paid the whole year of social security tax and filed income tax at the end of the year. In some way, we the tax payers will get some money back, isn’t it? How nice. At the tax time, we will be surprised because the bill won’t be $1.5 trillion, in fact much less, after collecting all the additional tax revenues and social security payments.
We should care what they do. They may make firecrackers for that matter. During the WWII, they made things that just got blown up in the battlefields, didn’t they? With lower labor cost, companies may not have to lay off as many people. Hopefully, they could use lower labor cost to create some profitable business and hence employ more people.

]]> Tue, 10 Feb 2009 08:36:14 -0500 There is one thing people don’t talk about it. May be it is too painful to talk about it. That is during the boom, we created a lot of money, especially in the form of credit given to subprime mortgages as well as in various derivatives derived from them. The world was afloat on cash. This certainly has created a distortion in the economic and financial situations in the whole world. As this bubble was busted, just like a balloon got busted and its air is let go, these extra money got to let go. We all are dreaming, dreaming of the fantasy world that was during the boom would come back. People talk of recovery as if that fantasy world would come back. No, recovery means returning to the world before the boom. But, even that is not possible. The boom has distorted the whole economic system of the world and we can never go back to where it was. Instead, a new world economic order has to be created.
Putting more money into the broken banks is equivalent to creating more money. It simply is not logical. After the TARP fiasco, everybody sees it now. Or, do we?
Some people say President Roosevelt did not contribute to the recover from the crash of 1920-30. It is the World War II that did it. The government created jobs including the armed services as well as all that production of arms. If you look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from 1920 to 1950, you will see it clearly that the pre-crash high of DJIA was not reached until well into 1950s. So, the key to recovery is JOBS.
In fact, everybody is talking about jobs. But, nobody is doing anything about jobs. Everybody is being busy how to carve up the money to line their pockets. Pork is too kind a word for it. If they are really interested in creating jobs, why not give tax credit to all jobs. The total U. S. employment is about 150 million people. Even if you give an average of $10,000 tax credit to each job, it amounts to ONLY $1.5 trillion. I say average because we should not give millionaire or billionaire bankers any of these tax credits. We should not let business to import more cheap foreign workers at the expense of our tax money either. We should give this tax credit to any U. S. registered corporation or company, including those mom and pop shops. We should apply it to any employee who had paid the whole year of social security tax and filed income tax at the end of the year. In some way, we the tax payers will get some money back, isn’t it? How nice. At the tax time, we will be surprised because the bill won’t be $1.5 trillion, in fact much less, after collecting all the additional tax revenues and social security payments.
We should care what they do. They may make firecrackers for that matter. During the WWII, they made things that just got blown up in the battlefields, didn’t they? With lower labor cost, companies may not have to lay off as many people. Hopefully, they could use lower labor cost to create some profitable business and hence employ more people.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116616-thursday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-376669 376669 Thu, 05 Feb 2009 09:01:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111893-oil-s-slide-a-result-of-capitulation-selling?source=feed#comment-336522 336522 A little while back, with the easy money policy, we were awash with cash and drove oil-guzzling SUVs and were buying all kind of junks made from petroleum (oil) by cheap Chinese labor. Oil production is limited and it is like the highway when just a few more cars than it can handle it creates a huge traffic jam. High oil price ensued because of the huge demands we put on oil a little while back. Now, the traffic has slackened and the highway remains as before. Of course the oil price collapsed. But it is the traders who blindly bought up the futures got the short end. The oil producers had sold them at the high price but now the traders who cannot take the delivery had to unload them at any low price. The producers are not cutting back the production because they still have the obligation to those traders who bought the future at 100+ a few months ago. They are making a killing and it is the buyers’ tankers afloat with glutted oil.
Now, the government has huge hole in the ground. They can take current delivery at 30 or so while selling futures at 60 or so with 100% profit. I am not suggesting the government is doing it. But, if you own that big hole, wouldn’t you do it?
Don’t believe OPEC will cut back the production immediately. They are pumping oil today for 100+ contracts they sold a while ago and they are selling futures at 60. It is only when the futures get down to below 30, or even below 20, OPEC may really start to cut back.
]]> Tue, 23 Dec 2008 09:23:45 -0500 A little while back, with the easy money policy, we were awash with cash and drove oil-guzzling SUVs and were buying all kind of junks made from petroleum (oil) by cheap Chinese labor. Oil production is limited and it is like the highway when just a few more cars than it can handle it creates a huge traffic jam. High oil price ensued because of the huge demands we put on oil a little while back. Now, the traffic has slackened and the highway remains as before. Of course the oil price collapsed. But it is the traders who blindly bought up the futures got the short end. The oil producers had sold them at the high price but now the traders who cannot take the delivery had to unload them at any low price. The producers are not cutting back the production because they still have the obligation to those traders who bought the future at 100+ a few months ago. They are making a killing and it is the buyers’ tankers afloat with glutted oil.
Now, the government has huge hole in the ground. They can take current delivery at 30 or so while selling futures at 60 or so with 100% profit. I am not suggesting the government is doing it. But, if you own that big hole, wouldn’t you do it?
Don’t believe OPEC will cut back the production immediately. They are pumping oil today for 100+ contracts they sold a while ago and they are selling futures at 60. It is only when the futures get down to below 30, or even below 20, OPEC may really start to cut back.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107763-tuesday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-314454 314454 I like the way you have been doing. It is instant analysis (with years of experience and insight behind it) of what each chart presents. I am not interested in having educational blurbs in here except for some cryptic mentions of the backgrounds once in a while when necessary. Keep up the good work.
I got the sense that investors large and small are quite angry about all these bailouts and how all these politicians, both outgoing and incoming, are handling the current financial crisis, though not at the boiling point yet.
]]> Tue, 25 Nov 2008 08:24:20 -0500 I like the way you have been doing. It is instant analysis (with years of experience and insight behind it) of what each chart presents. I am not interested in having educational blurbs in here except for some cryptic mentions of the backgrounds once in a while when necessary. Keep up the good work.
I got the sense that investors large and small are quite angry about all these bailouts and how all these politicians, both outgoing and incoming, are handling the current financial crisis, though not at the boiling point yet.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99265-seeking-the-fix-that-will-finally-work?source=feed#comment-278572 278572 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 07:15:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99265-seeking-the-fix-that-will-finally-work?source=feed#comment-278563 278563 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 06:46:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99307-friday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-278556 278556 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 06:23:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98481-bailout-bill-passes-what-happens-now?source=feed#comment-273447 273447 Here is why what you are saying is very close to what is happening.
On average, we American are in debt (mortgage and credit cards combined) for $150,000 or so per family. The median income of American family is $50,000 before tax per year and out of that each pays about $15,000 of interest to various lenders.
Any bank, even you, would be out of their or your mind to lend any more money to this bunch of people. I believe this is the root cause of today’s problem. We American are simply not credit worthy. It is not that banks do not want to lend. It is that more than half of us or not fit for borrowing.
Until this situation is corrected, the Fed can print as much money as they want but no prudent banks or persons, including you and me, would be willing to lend a penny. There will be job losses and economy downturn. We need some good and cool heads to get us out of this mess.
By the way, those investment bankers are in a bigger hole than you and I are. This $700 billion is to rescue them, not us. At least Paulson was honest at the beginning. All he said was to buy up bad credits from themselves, I mean the investment bankers. But, after the defeat of the bill in the Congress, the Democrat controlled Congress had twisted the whole thing and said this was a rescue of us average American. That scared everyone including us the voting average American and their mindless representatives. Now, just wait, we will all soon see very clearly that our tax money (whatever the government spent will eventually come out of our taxes) will be used to rescue these investment bankers with scarcely a drop trickled down to the average American.
]]> Sat, 04 Oct 2008 12:23:56 -0400 Here is why what you are saying is very close to what is happening.
On average, we American are in debt (mortgage and credit cards combined) for $150,000 or so per family. The median income of American family is $50,000 before tax per year and out of that each pays about $15,000 of interest to various lenders.
Any bank, even you, would be out of their or your mind to lend any more money to this bunch of people. I believe this is the root cause of today’s problem. We American are simply not credit worthy. It is not that banks do not want to lend. It is that more than half of us or not fit for borrowing.
Until this situation is corrected, the Fed can print as much money as they want but no prudent banks or persons, including you and me, would be willing to lend a penny. There will be job losses and economy downturn. We need some good and cool heads to get us out of this mess.
By the way, those investment bankers are in a bigger hole than you and I are. This $700 billion is to rescue them, not us. At least Paulson was honest at the beginning. All he said was to buy up bad credits from themselves, I mean the investment bankers. But, after the defeat of the bill in the Congress, the Democrat controlled Congress had twisted the whole thing and said this was a rescue of us average American. That scared everyone including us the voting average American and their mindless representatives. Now, just wait, we will all soon see very clearly that our tax money (whatever the government spent will eventually come out of our taxes) will be used to rescue these investment bankers with scarcely a drop trickled down to the average American.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98157-thursday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-271289 271289 The U.S. population is about 300 million with about 100 million families. Therefore, on average, each family is in debt for about $175,000. Suppose the average mortgage annual interest charge is 7% and that part of interest comes to about $10,000 a year per household. The interest on credit card can be as much as 20% a year and that part of interest comes to about $5,000 a year per household. The median annual household income is about $50,000 BEFORE TAX out of which each household is paying about $15,000 just for the interest charge. This is simply a untenable situation. More than half of us are under crushing pressure of this debt and many have already or will go bankrupt sooner or later.
As we get behind in our payments, the underlying securities become worthless and the banks owning them go belly up. As we cannot borrow and spent any more, businesses also go down. This is where we are today.
We are going to see a slower household spending and business growth if not some regression of both of them in the immediate future. This is unavoidable. We American have been living beyond our means and we have to put our financial house both private and public in order. This is going to take a long time. Perhaps there will be a recession first and the inflation afterwards. We are already in a recession. We do not know how deep it will go. Inflation is inevitable because without it we cannot wipe out all this debt crushing on our shoulder. We will be out in the clear when we look at half-a-million dollar houses as very cheap just like we now look at fifty-thousand dollar houses of thirty or forth years ago as so cheap that we can pay off the mortgages very easily. I bet many of us have done so and hadn’t succumbed to the lure of second mortgages and those are the financially prudent ones and who can weather the current financial storms.
So, what is this bail out about? Is it going to help any? As I just heard over the radio, someone said what the congress is facing now is between a bad bill and no bill at all. It is a clear choice: No Bill.
The consequence may be an immediate disaster in the financial market. However, after that, I hope the people who are in the position of directly affecting the politics and policies will hunker down to face the reality and do some things toward addressing the real problems of today. That would be a right step.
We are in a long haul regardless of whether the bill will pass or not.



]]> Thu, 02 Oct 2008 06:49:22 -0400 The U.S. population is about 300 million with about 100 million families. Therefore, on average, each family is in debt for about $175,000. Suppose the average mortgage annual interest charge is 7% and that part of interest comes to about $10,000 a year per household. The interest on credit card can be as much as 20% a year and that part of interest comes to about $5,000 a year per household. The median annual household income is about $50,000 BEFORE TAX out of which each household is paying about $15,000 just for the interest charge. This is simply a untenable situation. More than half of us are under crushing pressure of this debt and many have already or will go bankrupt sooner or later.
As we get behind in our payments, the underlying securities become worthless and the banks owning them go belly up. As we cannot borrow and spent any more, businesses also go down. This is where we are today.
We are going to see a slower household spending and business growth if not some regression of both of them in the immediate future. This is unavoidable. We American have been living beyond our means and we have to put our financial house both private and public in order. This is going to take a long time. Perhaps there will be a recession first and the inflation afterwards. We are already in a recession. We do not know how deep it will go. Inflation is inevitable because without it we cannot wipe out all this debt crushing on our shoulder. We will be out in the clear when we look at half-a-million dollar houses as very cheap just like we now look at fifty-thousand dollar houses of thirty or forth years ago as so cheap that we can pay off the mortgages very easily. I bet many of us have done so and hadn’t succumbed to the lure of second mortgages and those are the financially prudent ones and who can weather the current financial storms.
So, what is this bail out about? Is it going to help any? As I just heard over the radio, someone said what the congress is facing now is between a bad bill and no bill at all. It is a clear choice: No Bill.
The consequence may be an immediate disaster in the financial market. However, after that, I hope the people who are in the position of directly affecting the politics and policies will hunker down to face the reality and do some things toward addressing the real problems of today. That would be a right step.
We are in a long haul regardless of whether the bill will pass or not.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97901-a-bad-day-yes-but-enough-with-the-hyperbole?source=feed#comment-269355 269355 We know that our financial situation has been worsening for years but no serious fixes have been made. And it has gotten worse in the last few weeks. The trouble started when both Fed and Treasury tried to make a “bold” move without any clear direction and created a crisis situation. When the move did not get where, the market “crashed.” What we needed were cool heads to negotiate through this financial storm with some done-to-earth measures such as Federal intervention of the bad mortgages to make both the lenders and borrowers “half whole.” Such moves would have benefited both Wall Street and Main Street. Instead, the “bold” move had the appearance (and, may be the substance) of Main Street “bailing out” the Wall Street, making lenders “whole” and borrowers “empty,” and the whole thing ended up bankrupting both of them, leading to the liquidity problems. The move was hailed as also a bail out of Main Street only after it was failed. It was a mess.
The situation was brought to a crisis proportion by the wrong move of Fed and Treasury. Apparently the “bold” move, my guess, by the Treasury was a flop. The Congress did not help. The media were no help either. What we need now is some cool heads and cool hands to guide us through this storm. Hopefully, both the Fed and Treasury have realized that they have been “hot” headed. They should now come up with some concrete steps in the days to come. It is important that they come up with something really workable, even if it starts with a little step in the right direction. DJI may drop another 3,000 points in the mean time. However, as long as the nation as a whole is moving in the right direction, the market will recover and the nation will also recover.
]]> Tue, 30 Sep 2008 06:48:34 -0400 We know that our financial situation has been worsening for years but no serious fixes have been made. And it has gotten worse in the last few weeks. The trouble started when both Fed and Treasury tried to make a “bold” move without any clear direction and created a crisis situation. When the move did not get where, the market “crashed.” What we needed were cool heads to negotiate through this financial storm with some done-to-earth measures such as Federal intervention of the bad mortgages to make both the lenders and borrowers “half whole.” Such moves would have benefited both Wall Street and Main Street. Instead, the “bold” move had the appearance (and, may be the substance) of Main Street “bailing out” the Wall Street, making lenders “whole” and borrowers “empty,” and the whole thing ended up bankrupting both of them, leading to the liquidity problems. The move was hailed as also a bail out of Main Street only after it was failed. It was a mess.
The situation was brought to a crisis proportion by the wrong move of Fed and Treasury. Apparently the “bold” move, my guess, by the Treasury was a flop. The Congress did not help. The media were no help either. What we need now is some cool heads and cool hands to guide us through this storm. Hopefully, both the Fed and Treasury have realized that they have been “hot” headed. They should now come up with some concrete steps in the days to come. It is important that they come up with something really workable, even if it starts with a little step in the right direction. DJI may drop another 3,000 points in the mean time. However, as long as the nation as a whole is moving in the right direction, the market will recover and the nation will also recover.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97663-the-deal-s-getting-done-but-will-it-work?source=feed#comment-267325 267325 This all assumes that our elected representatives and government officials behaves rationally (collectively) to rein in the excess in the Wall Street as well as to limit the money supply growth (to moderate future inflation). If they all behave properly, what happened in the last few years would be just a little blip in the long history of the market. If they don’t, we may turn ourselves into a banana republic in a big way.
If the DJI dips below 10,000 and stays there for sometimes, there will be hardship.
The bail out as currently structured is simply irresponsible. We do not need a bail out to save, however briefly, the failing companies whose management teams should mostly be blamed for their failure. Investors who had ignored the historic lesson should also blame themselves and should not look to the tax payers to bail them out. We need a “bail out” that channels all the reserve we have to create new jobs (highway, energy, and so on) to avert the hardship. We need a “bail out” that institutes sound regulations in the financial market to let the market behave orderly and responsibly. We need a “bail out” that places safeguards for the vast majority of investing public not to be taken by people offering too-good-to-be true investment schemes.
Let the mismanaged companies fail. Let us think how we pilot through this troubled financial time with whatever it takes but prudently. It may take more than $700 billion. $700 billion is just a talking number. We don’t have that kind of money. Unfortunately, many of us, including those in the negotiation, think that is the money we have in pocket and will be spent one way or the other.
]]> Sun, 28 Sep 2008 08:59:13 -0400 This all assumes that our elected representatives and government officials behaves rationally (collectively) to rein in the excess in the Wall Street as well as to limit the money supply growth (to moderate future inflation). If they all behave properly, what happened in the last few years would be just a little blip in the long history of the market. If they don’t, we may turn ourselves into a banana republic in a big way.
If the DJI dips below 10,000 and stays there for sometimes, there will be hardship.
The bail out as currently structured is simply irresponsible. We do not need a bail out to save, however briefly, the failing companies whose management teams should mostly be blamed for their failure. Investors who had ignored the historic lesson should also blame themselves and should not look to the tax payers to bail them out. We need a “bail out” that channels all the reserve we have to create new jobs (highway, energy, and so on) to avert the hardship. We need a “bail out” that institutes sound regulations in the financial market to let the market behave orderly and responsibly. We need a “bail out” that places safeguards for the vast majority of investing public not to be taken by people offering too-good-to-be true investment schemes.
Let the mismanaged companies fail. Let us think how we pilot through this troubled financial time with whatever it takes but prudently. It may take more than $700 billion. $700 billion is just a talking number. We don’t have that kind of money. Unfortunately, many of us, including those in the negotiation, think that is the money we have in pocket and will be spent one way or the other.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97554-the-calm-before-the-storm?source=feed#comment-266389 266389 Fri, 26 Sep 2008 17:17:42 -0400