unfaire

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

The low interest rate of the Fed is hurting the economy! And, it is drying up the liquidity! Why?
If you are a small bank and having, say, $1 million of cash, would you lend it out today knowing Fed will have to raise the interest rate sooner or later when you will be able to make a lot more money at that time? You would just sit on it and do nothing. You won't finance a mortgage at today's rate and get stuck with it for the next 10, 20, or 30 years, if you think you can get better return after the Fed has hiked the rate.
On the other hand, the big investment bank turned holding banks take this costing-almost-nothing money and churn the stock market and making a zillions of dollars.
The net result is the this low interest rate is not creating liquidity. In fact it is hurting everybody except the big banks who can trade on their on account and those who have the gull to charge 30% interest on the credit cards.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

We human being have been fighting against each other for territories, properties, powers, and sex all through down the history. We coerced, cheated, doublecrossed, murdered, whatever the ends that justified the means. It has been bloody. The stock market is the new fighting ground, only that it is bloodless on the surface. While the big boys are slugging out amongst each other making huge surges, us the little guys should try to ride the waves hopefully to make money on both the way up and the way down. You know the adage well: Only the pigs get slaughtered.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I have been wondering how the computers or Hal 9000 whoever they are are programmed to make money on the way down. It looks like they behave crumsily in a down market than up market. We have heard so much about how to forerun a buy oder but haven't heard much about forerunning a sell order.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

My guess is that computers or Hal 9000 whoever they are are targetting someone who have to buy. That someone is probably 401k. There, money is still coming in and they have to buy something. With a thin market, Hal can nearly buy up everything before the mutual fund make their moves. With this scenario the market will keep on going up to no end until Hal is reprogrammed to make money on the way down at a certain level. DJIA at 10,000? 12,000? 14,000? Or, when we all jump in with our two feet. That is the biggest guessing game in town now. Recession is over? Who cares! Look, someone is hording all this stocks now. They just sit tight and watch their valuation go up until one day when they think enough is enough and jump out of the market for something else with better return.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Re Ryu Mei Co:
My guess is that the market has been taken over by the news-independent (or event-independent) computer programs. These programs seem to trade "against" market movements. It means when the market (or, almost any stock) goes down, they buy. The consequence is that the market turns up. And, when the market goes up, they dump the stocks they have just bought and make an instant profit. The market then turns down. This works in "thin" market and "stabilizes" the market. The Dow Jones has been in the mid 9,000 and going nowhere for a while now. Nobody is making money except those computers.